Picks vs outcomes
Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
How the model's picks actually turned out
Fight-winner picks: the model's chosen fighter and its probability, graded against the official result.
16 graded picks is far too few to say anything about accuracy. These are published so the predictions can be checked, not as evidence that they work.
The market's own de-vigged probability for the same bout is shown alongside. This is the only sport here where the two are recorded together.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Umar Nurmagomedov · 52.5% | Song Yadong | MISS |
| 2026-08-29 | Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan | Denise Gomes · 69.6% | Denise Gomes | HIT |
| 2026-08-29 | Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Andre Lima · 61.1% | Andre Lima | HIT |
| 2026-08-29 | Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Rei Tsuruya · 73.4% | Rei Tsuruya | HIT |
| 2026-08-29 | Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins | Sean Woodson · 66.6% | Sean Woodson | HIT |
| 2026-08-29 | Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong | Julia Polastri · 74.5% | Julia Polastri | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers | Lerryan Douglas · 61.4% | Jamall Emmers | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev | Kennedy Nzechukwu · 66.1% | Shamil Gaziev | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast | Chris Padilla · 56.3% | Chris Padilla | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil | Gauge Young · 90.4% | Stan Dorsainvil | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey | Wes Schultz · 51.1% | Jackson McVey | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed | Shanelle Dyer · 78.5% | Shanelle Dyer | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez | Gregory Rodrigues · 53.1% | Gregory Rodrigues | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder | Roman Dolidze · 51.2% | Reinier de Ridder | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones | MarQuel Mederos · 52.0% | MarQuel Mederos | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves | Carli Judice · 61.3% | Carli Judice | HIT |
A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.