Picks vs outcomes

90 graded picks is still a small sample. A hit rate over this many outcomes has a wide enough margin of error to be consistent with almost any true accuracy.

The market's own de-vigged probability for the same bout is shown alongside. This is the only sport here where the two are recorded together.

Date	Event	Model said	What happened	Market priced it	Result
2026-10-24	ME AV Movsar Evloev vs Alexander Volkanovski	Movsar Evloev · 69.4%	Alexander Volkanovski	50.4%	MISS
2026-10-24	PY MD Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili	Petr Yan · 55.3%	Petr Yan	57.8%	HIT
2026-10-24	AV RK Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev	Alexander Volkov · 61.4%	Alexander Volkov	52.2%	HIT
2026-10-24	DR AM Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov	Dominick Reyes · 51.9%	Dominick Reyes	34.9%	HIT
2026-10-24	AY NK Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev · 74.9%	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	80.8%	HIT
2026-10-24	CR AM Cam Rowston vs Abus Magomedov	Cam Rowston · 68.8%	Abus Magomedov	53.7%	MISS
2026-10-24	NA GD Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson	Nurullo Aliev · 56.2%	Grant Dawson	51.8%	MISS
2026-10-24	CT AC Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	Colby Thicknesse · 62.2%	Colby Thicknesse	18.2%	HIT
2026-10-24	JM AV Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev	Jacob Malkoun · 66.5%	Abubakar Vagaev	58.3%	MISS
2026-10-24	DS BO Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	Daniel Santos · 62.6%	Daniel Santos	52.6%	HIT
2026-10-24	IL NC Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari	Iasmin Lucindo · 78.1%	Iasmin Lucindo	75.7%	HIT
2026-10-17	MM JB Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley	Mike Malott · 53.3%	Mike Malott	53.4%	HIT
2026-10-17	EB JJ Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius	Erin Blanchfield · 72.6%	Jasmine Jasudavicius	26.3%	MISS
2026-10-17	Cristian Pérez vs Kyle Nelson	Cristian Pérez · 63.1%	Cristian Pérez	74.3%	HIT
2026-10-17	KD MB Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault	Kyle Daukaus · 58.1%	Marc-Andre Barriault	36.2%	MISS
2026-10-17	NL MN Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	Nate Landwehr · 56.4%	Mandel Nallo	71.3%	MISS
2026-10-17	JD TB Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser	Jhonata Diniz · 51.2%	Tanner Boser	34.3%	MISS
2026-10-17	SK CA Steven Koslow vs Chad Anheliger	Steven Koslow · 64.9%	Steven Koslow	60.1%	HIT
2026-10-17	MC CC Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler	Melissa Croden · 56.3%	Chelsea Chandler	26.0%	MISS
2026-10-17	SY CC SuYoung You vs Cody Chovancek	SuYoung You · 63.9%	SuYoung You	46.1%	HIT
2026-10-10	CL BA Christian Leroy Duncan vs Brendan Allen	Christian Leroy Duncan · 50.2%	Brendan Allen	53.2%	MISS
2026-10-10	MC JH Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert	Matheus Camilo · 74.0%	Jai Herbert	37.2%	MISS
2026-10-10	MW OT Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi	Malcolm Wellmaker · 51.4%	Otari Tanzilovi	33.7%	MISS
2026-10-10	JW GM Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert	Julius Walker · 61.5%	Julius Walker	71.7%	HIT
2026-10-10	FP IB Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim	Francisco Prado · 62.6%	Francisco Prado	52.0%	HIT
2026-10-10	LS NP Leon Shahbazyan vs Niko Price	Leon Shahbazyan · 52.4%	Niko Price	42.0%	MISS
2026-10-10	FF BR Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro	Felipe Franco · 69.7%	Brendson Ribeiro	25.5%	MISS
2026-10-10	Loopy Godínez vs Ketlen Souza	Loopy Godínez · 54.9%	Loopy Godínez	67.4%	HIT
2026-10-10	AF KK Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III	Andre Fili · 51.9%	Andre Fili	57.1%	HIT
2026-10-10	AP DZ Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova	Alice Pereira · 70.7%	Alice Pereira	56.7%	HIT
2026-10-10	MG EK Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite	Melissa Gatto · 54.4%	—	—	VOID
2026-10-03	NS WC Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong	Natalia Silva · 71.8%	Natalia Silva	64.5%	HIT
2026-10-03	PT DF Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo	Payton Talbott · 76.3%	Payton Talbott	84.7%	HIT
2026-10-03	ER KG Esteban Ribovics vs King Green	Esteban Ribovics · 59.8%	Esteban Ribovics	65.1%	HIT
2026-10-03	Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić	Khaos Williams · 67.1%	Roberto Soldić	65.7%	MISS
2026-10-03	AG RK Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov	Ateba Gautier · 83.1%	Roman Kopylov	32.4%	MISS
2026-10-03	AC IR Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez	Alden Coria · 59.1%	Imanol Rodriguez	56.3%	MISS
2026-10-03	DP AP Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev	Damian Pinas · 77.1%	Damian Pinas	81.8%	HIT
2026-10-03	BW Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead	Jacobe Smith · 72.8%	Jacobe Smith	88.7%	HIT
2026-10-03	IN MV Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori	Ismail Naurdiev · 50.1%	Ismail Naurdiev	55.8%	HIT
2026-10-03	CM EN Court McGee vs Eric Nolan	Court McGee · 97.6%	Eric Nolan	66.6%	MISS
2026-10-03	MM AR Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero	Marcus McGhee · 74.3%	Marcus McGhee	80.9%	HIT
2026-09-26	RR RB Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos	Raul Rosas Jr. · 82.4%	Raul Rosas Jr.	57.7%	HIT
2026-09-26	RV RB Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek	Rodolfo Vieira · 59.0%	Rodolfo Vieira	59.8%	HIT
2026-09-26	BH RN Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura	Brady Hiestand · 55.2%	Brady Hiestand	24.0%	HIT
2026-09-26	RB CE Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards	Rodolfo Bellato · 58.2%	Christian Edwards	38.4%	MISS
2026-09-26	MJ RS Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon	Montel Jackson · 59.5%	Montel Jackson	66.9%	HIT
2026-09-26	AP ND Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont	Ailin Perez · 55.8%	Ailin Perez	59.7%	HIT
2026-09-26	YJ VD Yazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa Demopoulos	Yazmin Jauregui · 72.5%	Yazmin Jauregui	86.8%	HIT
2026-09-26	LH SD Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas	Luis Hernandez · 53.4%	Luis Hernandez	68.2%	HIT
2026-09-19	JV AP Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja	Joshua Van · 73.7%	Joshua Van	55.1%	HIT
2026-09-19	AT MR Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy	Arman Tsarukyan · 56.5%	Arman Tsarukyan	74.2%	HIT
2026-09-19	DC PP Dooho Choi vs Patricio Pitbull	Dooho Choi · 76.9%	Patricio Pitbull	29.3%	MISS
2026-09-19	IB AM Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield	Iwo Baraniewski · 74.5%	Alonzo Menifield	31.7%	MISS
2026-09-19	MV CJ Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain	Marlon Vera · 55.5%	Marlon Vera	34.2%	HIT
2026-09-19	TT RD Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne	Tai Tuivasa · 55.8%	Robelis Despaigne	84.1%	MISS
2026-09-19	RG OD Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz	Ryan Gandra · 75.8%	Ryan Gandra	80.9%	HIT
2026-09-19	ES BF Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	Edmen Shahbazyan · 67.2%	Edmen Shahbazyan	61.0%	HIT
2026-09-19	CO EM Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura	Casey O'Neill · 65.4%	Casey O'Neill	66.5%	HIT
2026-09-19	JB GC Joanderson Brito vs Giga Chikadze	Joanderson Brito · 65.8%	Joanderson Brito	76.8%	HIT

Showing the 60 most recent of 90 graded.