Signal
Under leans outperform Over
NBA Under settled at 53.3% vs 46.9% for Over on 3635 decisive picks. Treat as a lean — not a guarantee.
NBA results
2026-27 · Official Forecast vs final
Each game's official winner side as it was frozen before tip, against the official final. A game with no final yet is pending and a disputed final is held — neither is ever counted as a miss. The model's NBA single picks are graded in the model suggestions record.
Model Performance: the official side won 44 and lost 27 of 71 decided games.
Counts, not an accuracy claim: the preregistered minimum before any judgment of the winner side is 300 graded games, and this is 71. The Elo-derived estimate shown on the boards is not a validated probability, and no calibration is claimed.
Thu, Oct 29 · 3 games · side won 2, lost 1
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ ATLtip 8:00 PM ET | ATLfrozen 12:01 PM ET | CLE 111 – 114 ATL | Side won |
| SAC @ NOtip 8:00 PM ET | NOfrozen 12:01 PM ET | SAC 120 – 132 NO | Side won |
| MEM @ PORtip 10:00 PM ET | PORfrozen 12:01 PM ET | MEM 124 – 103 POR | Side lost |
Wed, Oct 28 · 12 games · side won 8, lost 4
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ ATLtip 7:00 PM ET | ATLfrozen 11:23 AM ET | MIA 129 – 117 ATL | Side lost |
| WSH @ CLEtip 7:00 PM ET | CLEfrozen 11:23 AM ET | WSH 111 – 121 CLE | Side won |
| CHA @ DETtip 7:00 PM ET | DETfrozen 11:23 AM ET | CHA 89 – 97 DET | Side won |
| PHI @ INDtip 7:00 PM ET | PHIfrozen 11:23 AM ET | PHI 114 – 109 IND | Side won |
| ORL @ TORtip 7:30 PM ET | TORfrozen 11:57 AM ET | ORL 99 – 129 TOR | Side won |
| NY @ CHItip 8:00 PM ET | NYfrozen 11:57 AM ET | NY 133 – 127 CHI | Side won |
| HOU @ MILtip 8:00 PM ET | HOUfrozen 11:57 AM ET | HOU 132 – 100 MIL | Side won |
| GS @ MINtip 8:00 PM ET | MINfrozen 11:57 AM ET | GS 119 – 114 MIN | Side lost |
| DEN @ NOtip 8:00 PM ET | DENfrozen 11:57 AM ET | DEN 104 – 91 NO | Side won |
| SA @ UTAHtip 9:00 PM ET | SAfrozen 11:57 AM ET | SA 117 – 111 UTAH | Side won |
| OKC @ DALtip 9:30 PM ET | OKCfrozen 11:57 AM ET | OKC 96 – 120 DAL | Side lost |
| LAL @ LACtip 10:30 PM ET | LACfrozen 11:57 AM ET | LAL 103 – 87 LAC | Side lost |
Tue, Oct 27 · 4 games · side won 3, lost 1
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN @ BOStip 7:30 PM ET | BOSfrozen 11:18 AM ET | BKN 124 – 125 BOS | Side won |
| DET @ NYtip 8:00 PM ET | NYfrozen 11:18 AM ET | DET 97 – 111 NY | Side won |
| SAC @ SAtip 8:00 PM ET | SAfrozen 11:18 AM ET | SAC 103 – 130 SA | Side won |
| POR @ LALtip 11:00 PM ET | LALfrozen 11:18 AM ET | POR 136 – 129 LAL | Side lost |
Mon, Oct 26 · 9 games · side won 6, lost 3
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ CHAtip 7:00 PM ET | CHAfrozen 11:26 AM ET | WSH 103 – 110 CHA | Side won |
| MIN @ CLEtip 7:00 PM ET | CLEfrozen 11:26 AM ET | MIN 125 – 127 CLE | Side won |
| CHI @ BOStip 7:30 PM ET | BOSfrozen 12:05 PM ET | CHI 99 – 134 BOS | Side won |
| DAL @ MIAtip 7:30 PM ET | MIAfrozen 12:05 PM ET | DAL 113 – 109 MIA | Side lost |
| IND @ MILtip 8:00 PM ET | MILfrozen 12:05 PM ET | IND 102 – 110 MIL | Side won |
| PHX @ OKCtip 8:00 PM ET | OKCfrozen 12:05 PM ET | PHX 114 – 125 OKC | Side won |
| ATL @ HOUtip 8:30 PM ET | HOUfrozen 12:05 PM ET | ATL 110 – 120 HOU | Side won |
| MEM @ UTAHtip 9:00 PM ET | UTAHfrozen 12:05 PM ET | MEM 110 – 105 UTAH | Side lost |
| GS @ DENtip 10:00 PM ET | DENfrozen 12:05 PM ET | GS 134 – 114 DEN | Side lost |
Sun, Oct 25 · 7 games · side won 4, lost 3
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL @ UTAHtip 5:00 PM ET | LALfrozen 9:25 AM ET | LAL 132 – 123 UTAH | Side won |
| IND @ BKNtip 6:00 PM ET | BKNfrozen 9:41 AM ET | IND 136 – 109 BKN | Side lost |
| ORL @ NYtip 7:00 PM ET | NYfrozen 9:41 AM ET | ORL 111 – 102 NY | Side lost |
| TOR @ MINtip 7:00 PM ET | MINfrozen 9:41 AM ET | TOR 94 – 117 MIN | Side won |
| LAC @ OKCtip 7:00 PM ET | OKCfrozen 9:41 AM ET | LAC 101 – 108 OKC | Side won |
| DET @ PHItip 7:30 PM ET | DETfrozen 9:41 AM ET | DET 106 – 93 PHI | Side won |
| MEM @ SACtip 9:00 PM ET | SACfrozen 9:41 AM ET | MEM 123 – 112 SAC | Side lost |
Sat, Oct 24 · 8 games · side won 6, lost 2
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ CHAtip 6:00 PM ET | CHAfrozen 9:16 AM ET | MIA 110 – 115 CHA | Side won |
| BKN @ CLEtip 7:30 PM ET | CLEfrozen 9:16 AM ET | BKN 121 – 125 CLE | Side won |
| MIL @ PHItip 7:30 PM ET | PHIfrozen 9:16 AM ET | MIL 116 – 127 PHI | Side won |
| WSH @ CHItip 8:00 PM ET | CHIfrozen 9:16 AM ET | WSH 124 – 120 CHI | Side lost |
| SA @ DALtip 8:00 PM ET | SAfrozen 9:16 AM ET | SA 122 – 106 DAL | Side won |
| HOU @ ATLtip 8:30 PM ET | ATLfrozen 9:16 AM ET | HOU 121 – 114 ATL | Side lost |
| NO @ DENtip 9:00 PM ET | DENfrozen 9:16 AM ET | NO 135 – 141 DEN | Side won |
| GS @ PHXtip 10:00 PM ET | PHXfrozen 9:16 AM ET | GS 122 – 131 PHX | Side won |
Fri, Oct 23 · 12 games · side won 4, lost 8
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ MILtip 4:00 PM ET | MILfrozen 8:23 AM ET | CHI 132 – 125 MIL | Side lost |
| NY @ BOStip 7:00 PM ET | NYfrozen 10:12 AM ET | NY 103 – 107 BOS | Side lost |
| ATL @ CHAtip 7:00 PM ET | CHAfrozen 10:12 AM ET | ATL 128 – 81 CHA | Side lost |
| DAL @ INDtip 7:00 PM ET | INDfrozen 10:12 AM ET | DAL 121 – 105 IND | Side lost |
| MIN @ ORLtip 7:00 PM ET | ORLfrozen 10:12 AM ET | MIN 115 – 93 ORL | Side lost |
| TOR @ WSHtip 7:00 PM ET | TORfrozen 10:12 AM ET | TOR 112 – 102 WSH | Side won |
| DET @ MIAtip 8:00 PM ET | DETfrozen 10:12 AM ET | DET 128 – 111 MIA | Side won |
| HOU @ SAtip 9:30 PM ET | SAfrozen 10:12 AM ET | HOU 114 – 110 SA | Side lost |
| NO @ UTAHtip 9:30 PM ET | NOfrozen 10:12 AM ET | NO 119 – 120 UTAH | Side lost |
| MEM @ GStip 10:00 PM ET | GSfrozen 10:12 AM ET | MEM 111 – 108 GS | Side lost |
| LAC @ LALtip 10:00 PM ET | LALfrozen 10:12 AM ET | LAC 117 – 125 LAL | Side won |
| POR @ SACtip 10:00 PM ET | PORfrozen 10:12 AM ET | POR 128 – 120 SAC | Side won |
The newest 7 of 10 days are listed game by game; every game is in the counts above, and each earlier day has its own page.
NBA archive · retired May–June 2026 player-prop model
NBA hit rate 49.1%, · 1784–1851 on 3635 decisive picks
16 slates settled · most recent: 2026-06-13. Looking for the cross-sport overall audit? See the global Results hub. Hit rate excludes pushes and No Plays. Educational analytics — not betting advice.
settled
3635
wins
1784
losses
1851
pushes
0
settled dates
2026-06-132026-06-102026-06-052026-06-032026-05-302026-05-282026-05-262026-05-252026-05-232026-05-222026-05-212026-05-202026-05-192026-05-182026-05-172026-05-15
showing 2026-06-13 below — most recent
Per-game scorecard · graded vs final box score
NY @ SA
8:30 PM EThit rate
42.0%
decisive
460
193–267
wins
193
losses
267
best callMikal Bridges PTS Over 10.5 → actual 14+20.7% edge
biggest missJalen Brunson PTS Under 27.5 · proj 26.5 → actual 45±18.5
Guardrail audit · clean vs model-anomaly
The model auto-caps any lean with an edge above the R5 anomaly threshold so extreme calls never claim High confidence. This panel grades those capped picks separately so visitors can see exactly how the guardrail tier performs against the clean tier.
Clean model leans
No anomaly flag · regular confidence path
42.8%
hit rate
wins
193
losses
258
decisive
451
Model anomaly (R5)
Edge ≥ 25% · confidence auto-capped to Low
0.0%
hit rate
wins
0
losses
9
decisive
9
2026-06-13 · player audit · projection vs actual
De'Aaron Fox
SA · NY @ SA20103067%
De'Aaron Fox
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Under 15.5· HighProj 13.72 · Actual 7 · Edge +11.0% · 4 books (-130 / -116)
- ✅Under 14.5· HighProj 13.72 · Actual 7 · Edge +8.0% · 6 books (-104 / +100)
REB
- ❌Over 3.5· HighProj 4.32 · Actual 0 · Edge +17.9% · 10 books (-104 / +119)
AST
- ✅Under 6.5· LowProj 5.98 · Actual 5 · Edge +4.7% · 9 books (-166 / -133)
- ✅Under 5.5· LowProj 5.98 · Actual 5 · Edge +1.0% · 1 book (+116)
3PM
- —Over 1.5· HighProj 1.57 · Actual — · Edge +12.1% · 10 books (+114 / +137)
BLK
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.72 · Actual — · Edge +34.0% · 5 books (+268 / +294)
PRA
- —Under 24.5· MediumProj 24.10 · Actual — · Edge +4.6% · 9 books (-114 / -102)
- —Under 25.5· HighProj 24.10 · Actual — · Edge +5.3% · 1 book (-119)
STL
- —Under 1.5· MediumProj 1.44 · Actual — · Edge +12.1% · 5 books (-217 / -207)
Devin VassellSA · NY @ SA20102867%
Devin Vassell
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Under 13.5· LowProj 13.25 · Actual 12 · Edge +2.1% · 9 books (-136 / -120)
- ✅Under 12.5· MediumProj 13.25 · Actual 12 · Edge +2.5% · 1 book (-104)
REB
- ✅Over 4.5· HighProj 6.12 · Actual 7 · Edge +17.7% · 10 books (-152 / -130)
AST
- ❌Over 2.5· HighProj 2.89 · Actual 2 · Edge +12.9% · 10 books (+102 / +116)
3PM
- —Over 2.5· HighProj 2.82 · Actual — · Edge +14.6% · 8 books (+113 / +116)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.40 · Actual — · Edge +4.3% · 5 books (-163 / -154)
PRA
- —Over 20.5· HighProj 21.94 · Actual — · Edge +7.8% · 10 books (-125 / -108)
STL
- —Over 0.5· LowProj 0.91 · Actual — · Edge +1.2% · 5 books (-208 / -197)
Julian ChampagnieSA · NY @ SA20102867%
Julian Champagnie
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Over 9.5· HighProj 11.03 · Actual 14 · Edge +13.8% · 10 books (-102 / +104)
REB
- ✅Over 4.5· HighProj 5.49 · Actual 7 · Edge +13.0% · 10 books (-136 / -114)
AST
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.73 · Actual 1 · Edge +20.1% · 10 books (+160 / +178)
3PM
- —Over 2.5· HighProj 2.99 · Actual — · Edge +20.1% · 8 books (+125 / +131)
BLK
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.52 · Actual — · Edge +13.4% · 5 books (+142 / +150)
PRA
- —Over 15.5· HighProj 18.96 · Actual — · Edge +17.8% · 10 books (-113 / -102)
STL
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.21 · Actual — · Edge +12.7% · 5 books (-169)
Karl-Anthony Towns
NY · NY @ SA20104067%
Karl-Anthony Towns
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Under 16.5· MediumProj 15.86 · Actual 2 · Edge +4.0% · 10 books (-130 / -114)
REB
- ✅Under 11.5· HighProj 10.80 · Actual 10 · Edge +6.8% · 8 books (-146 / -127)
- ✅Under 10.5· LowProj 10.80 · Actual 10 · Edge +0.3% · 2 books (+102)
AST
- ❌Over 3.5· HighProj 4.38 · Actual 1 · Edge +15.7% · 10 books (-134 / +100)
3PM
- —Under 1.5· HighProj 1.42 · Actual — · Edge +9.1% · 10 books (-188 / -171)
BLK
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.14 · Actual — · Edge +15.8% · 10 books (-163 / -151)
PRA
- —Under 31.5· MediumProj 30.47 · Actual — · Edge +5.5% · 9 books (-121 / -110)
- —Under 30.5· LowProj 30.47 · Actual — · Edge +2.0% · 1 book (-106)
STL
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.07 · Actual — · Edge +10.9% · 10 books (-178 / -162)
Mikal BridgesNY · NY @ SA20103567%
Mikal Bridges
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Over 10.5· HighProj 14.11 · Actual 14 · Edge +20.7% · 10 books (-128 / -113)
REB
- ❌Over 3.5· HighProj 3.98 · Actual 2 · Edge +13.8% · 10 books (+110 / +120)
AST
- ✅Over 2.5· HighProj 3.49 · Actual 4 · Edge +12.8% · 10 books (-148 / -128)
3PM
- —Under 1.5· LowProj 1.16 · Actual — · Edge +2.6% · 10 books (-188 / -158)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.26 · Actual — · Edge +2.9% · 5 books (-191 / -186)
PRA
- —Over 17.5· HighProj 20.18 · Actual — · Edge +14.6% · 7 books (-110 / -101)
- —Over 16.5· HighProj 20.18 · Actual — · Edge +13.8% · 3 books (-132 / -125)
STL
- —Over 1.5· LowProj 1.03 · Actual — · Edge +1.8% · 7 books (+184 / +194)
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.03 · Actual — · Edge +3.4% · 3 books (-242 / -224)
Stephon CastleSA · NY @ SA20103567%
Stephon Castle
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 15.5· MediumProj 16.67 · Actual 6 · Edge +6.0% · 8 books (-132 / -121)
- ❌Over 16.5· MediumProj 16.67 · Actual 6 · Edge +3.2% · 2 books (-103)
REB
- ✅Over 4.5· HighProj 5.31 · Actual 5 · Edge +6.4% · 10 books (-158 / -138)
AST
- ✅Under 6.5· HighProj 5.52 · Actual 4 · Edge +14.8% · 10 books (-132 / -117)
3PM
- —Under 1.5· MediumProj 1.26 · Actual — · Edge +6.3% · 10 books (-200 / -182)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.30 · Actual — · Edge +16.0% · 5 books (-352 / -326)
PRA
- —Over 27.5· MediumProj 28.22 · Actual — · Edge +3.2% · 10 books (-128 / -114)
STL
- —Over 0.5· LowProj 0.80 · Actual — · Edge +5.8% · 10 books (-245 / -210)
Victor WembanyamaSA · NY @ SA20104067%
Victor Wembanyama
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Under 27.5· MediumProj 27.04 · Actual 19 · Edge +5.9% · 9 books (-112 / -102)
- ✅Under 28.5· HighProj 27.04 · Actual 19 · Edge +8.8% · 1 book (-117)
REB
- ❌Under 11.5· HighProj 9.42 · Actual 14 · Edge +22.1% · 10 books (-130 / -114)
AST
- ✅Under 3.5· HighProj 2.80 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.6% · 10 books (-161 / -145)
3PM
- —Over 1.5· MediumProj 2.19 · Actual — · Edge +6.5% · 10 books (-205 / -180)
BLK
- —Under 3.5· MediumProj 2.86 · Actual — · Edge +22.1% · 10 books (-139 / -114)
PRA
- —Under 42.5· HighProj 39.02 · Actual — · Edge +16.9% · 4 books (-109 / -106)
- —Under 43.5· HighProj 39.02 · Actual — · Edge +19.7% · 6 books (-125 / -112)
STL
- —Under 1.5· MediumProj 1.28 · Actual — · Edge +6.4% · 10 books (-220 / -185)
Josh HartNY · NY @ SA10203533%
Josh Hart
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Under 9.5· LowProj 8.62 · Actual 13 · Edge +4.6% · 10 books (-136 / -114)
REB
- ✅Over 8.5· HighProj 9.53 · Actual 11 · Edge +17.2% · 10 books (-115 / +102)
AST
- ❌Over 4.5· LowProj 4.79 · Actual 2 · Edge +3.0% · 10 books (-140 / -123)
3PM
- —Under 1.5· HighProj 1.50 · Actual — · Edge +11.1% · 10 books (-188 / -166)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.35 · Actual — · Edge +22.1% · 5 books (-453 / -392)
PRA
- —Under 22.5· LowProj 23.06 · Actual — · Edge +1.5% · 7 books (-110 / -105)
- —Under 23.5· LowProj 23.06 · Actual — · Edge +0.6% · 3 books (-128 / -123)
STL
- —Over 1.5· MediumProj 1.84 · Actual — · Edge +25.0% · 10 books (+132 / +162)
Dylan HarperSA · NY @ SA030300%
Dylan Harper
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Under 14.5· HighProj 13.55 · Actual 25 · Edge +10.1% · 6 books (-105 / +102)
- ❌Under 15.5· HighProj 13.55 · Actual 25 · Edge +11.3% · 4 books (-136 / -120)
REB
- ❌Over 5.5· LowProj 6.03 · Actual 5 · Edge +5.7% · 10 books (-144 / -122)
AST
- ❌Under 3.5· MediumProj 2.71 · Actual 4 · Edge +7.5% · 10 books (-182 / -142)
3PM
- —Under 1.5· LowProj 1.23 · Actual — · Edge +2.1% · 10 books (-168 / -144)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.02 · Actual — · Edge +5.8% · 5 books (-341 / -262)
PRA
- —Under 24.5· HighProj 23.10 · Actual — · Edge +6.5% · 10 books (-125 / -113)
STL
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.40 · Actual — · Edge +17.8% · 5 books (+140 / +162)
Jalen BrunsonNY · NY @ SA030350%
Jalen Brunson
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Under 27.5· HighProj 26.54 · Actual 45 · Edge +6.5% · 8 books (-115 / -107)
- ❌Under 28.5· HighProj 26.54 · Actual 45 · Edge +9.3% · 2 books (-118)
REB
- ❌Over 3.5· HighProj 3.83 · Actual 3 · Edge +13.4% · 10 books (+116 / +128)
AST
- ❌Over 5.5· LowProj 5.77 · Actual 3 · Edge +2.5% · 10 books (-149 / -129)
3PM
- —Under 2.5· MediumProj 2.33 · Actual — · Edge +3.5% · 10 books (-159 / -149)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.00 · Actual — · Edge +19.9% · 5 books (-1060 / -1020)
PRA
- —Over 37.5· LowProj 36.91 · Actual — · Edge +4.5% · 9 books (-124 / -104)
- —Over 36.5· LowProj 36.91 · Actual — · Edge +0.3% · 1 book (-122)
STL
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.39 · Actual — · Edge +10.6% · 10 books (-210 / -172)
Landry ShametNY · NY @ SA030350%
Landry Shamet
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 6.5· HighProj 10.46 · Actual 5 · Edge +27.3% · 9 books (-126 / -102)
- ❌Over 7.5· HighProj 10.46 · Actual 5 · Edge +21.5% · 1 book (-101)
REB
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.57 · Actual 1 · Edge +11.7% · 10 books (+126 / +138)
AST
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.18 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.1% · 9 books (+164 / +194)
- ❌Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.18 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.9% · 1 book (-231)
3PM
- —Over 1.5· HighProj 2.25 · Actual — · Edge +20.5% · 10 books (-130 / -103)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.28 · Actual — · Edge +26.5% · 5 books (-770 / -730)
PRA
- —Over 9.5· HighProj 11.93 · Actual — · Edge +14.4% · 10 books (-120 / +102)
STL
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.26 · Actual — · Edge +8.6% · 10 books (-147 / -114)
OG AnunobyNY · NY @ SA030400%
OG Anunoby
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 18.5· HighProj 20.96 · Actual 11 · Edge +17.9% · 8 books (-114 / -103)
- ❌Over 17.5· HighProj 20.96 · Actual 11 · Edge +19.3% · 2 books (-125)
REB
- ❌Under 5.5· LowProj 5.03 · Actual 8 · Edge +2.8% · 10 books (-152 / -134)
AST
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 2.14 · Actual 0 · Edge +15.1% · 10 books (-114 / +108)
3PM
- —Over 2.5· HighProj 2.88 · Actual — · Edge +12.6% · 10 books (-118 / +100)
BLK
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 1.14 · Actual — · Edge +17.8% · 10 books (-167 / -138)
PRA
- —Over 25.5· HighProj 28.01 · Actual — · Edge +12.2% · 10 books (-120 / -109)
STL
- —Under 1.5· LowProj 1.26 · Actual — · Edge +0.8% · 10 books (-170 / -168)
Jose AlvaradoNY · NY @ SA1882469%
Jose Alvarado
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ✅Under 4.5· LowProj 4.40 · Actual 0 · Edge +3.1% · 10 books (-136 / -112)
REB
- ❌Over 1.5· MediumProj 1.88 · Actual 1 · Edge +5.1% · 8 books (-122 / -114)
AST
- ✅Under 1.5· HighProj 1.29 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.0% · 8 books (-105 / +106)
3PM
- —Over 0.5· LowProj 0.56 · Actual — · Edge +3.2% · 8 books (-141 / -127)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.05 · Actual — · Edge +24.8% · 3 books (-1600)
PRA
- —Under 7.5· LowProj 7.89 · Actual — · Edge +1.1% · 7 books (-112 / -104)
- —Under 8.5· LowProj 7.89 · Actual — · Edge +0.2% · 1 book (-130)
STL
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.49 · Actual — · Edge +6.3% · 5 books (-153 / -142)
Keldon JohnsonSA · NY @ SA8152035%
Keldon Johnson
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Under 6.5· LowProj 5.92 · Actual 7 · Edge +5.3% · 10 books (-128 / -106)
REB
- ✅Over 2.5· HighProj 2.62 · Actual 5 · Edge +6.0% · 8 books (-160 / -146)
AST
- ❌Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.65 · Actual 0 · Edge +3.3% · 5 books (-147 / -142)
3PM
- —Over 0.5· HighProj 0.73 · Actual — · Edge +5.9% · 5 books (-121 / -114)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.00 · Actual — · Edge +21.1% · 5 books (-1220 / -1100)
PRA
- —Under 10.5· MediumProj 9.70 · Actual — · Edge +4.7% · 5 books (-124 / -109)
STL
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.67 · Actual — · Edge +18.7% · 5 books (+144 / +150)
Mitchell RobinsonNY · NY @ SA8151535%
Mitchell Robinson
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 3.5· HighProj 4.85 · Actual 2 · Edge +11.3% · 8 books (-119 / -104)
- ❌Over 2.5· HighProj 4.85 · Actual 2 · Edge +13.1% · 2 books (-136 / -124)
REB
- ✅Over 4.5· HighProj 5.35 · Actual 10 · Edge +11.5% · 8 books (-122 / -114)
AST
- ❌Under 0.5· HighProj 0.21 · Actual 2 · Edge +12.5% · 5 books (-249 / -227)
BLK
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.56 · Actual — · Edge +6.2% · 5 books (+101 / +103)
PRA
- —Over 8.5· HighProj 10.25 · Actual — · Edge +8.7% · 5 books (-122 / -110)
STL
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.44 · Actual — · Edge +6.4% · 5 books (-168 / -163)
Miles McBrideNY · NY @ SA313919%
Miles McBride
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 2.5· HighProj 6.45 · Actual 0 · Edge +21.1% · 10 books (-131 / -114)
REB
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 1.32 · Actual 0 · Edge +10.9% · 3 books (-119 / -114)
AST
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.55 · Actual 1 · Edge +18.4% · 3 books (-106 / -104)
3PM
- —Over 0.5· HighProj 1.42 · Actual — · Edge +19.9% · 3 books (-107 / -104)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.30 · Actual — · Edge +34.6% · 3 books (-2100 / -1920)
STL
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.48 · Actual — · Edge +22.3% · 3 books (-348 / -346)
Luke KornetSA · NY @ SA54356%
Luke Kornet
SA · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 1.5· LowProj 2.02 · Actual 0 · Edge +2.0% · 4 books (-129 / -122)
REB
- ✅Over 1.5· HighProj 3.09 · Actual 2 · Edge +11.1% · 4 books (-172 / -171)
AST
- ✅Under 0.5· HighProj 0.41 · Actual 0 · Edge +6.2% · 1 book (-159)
BLK
- —Under 0.5· MediumProj 0.31 · Actual — · Edge +10.2% · 1 book (-250)
PRA
- —Over 4.5· MediumProj 4.98 · Actual — · Edge +4.9% · 1 book (-102)
STL
- —Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.62 · Actual — · Edge +33.1% · 1 book (+346)
Jordan ClarksonNY · NY @ SA12133%
Jordan Clarkson
NY · NY @ SAPTS
- ❌Over 2.5· HighProj 3.51 · Actual 2 · Edge +10.9% · 1 book (+106)
REB
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.49 · Actual 1 · Edge +13.4% · 1 book (-112)
AST
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.68 · Actual 0 · Edge +18.3% · 1 book (+172)
3PM
- —Under 0.5· HighProj 0.48 · Actual — · Edge +21.4% · 1 book (-324)
2026-06-13 · settled games · projection vs actual
- NY @ SA193–267 · 460 dec · 42.0% · 943 rowsEvery player row for NY @ SA on 2026-06-13 →
2026-06-13 · breakdown
hit rate
42.0%
decisive
460
193–267–0 W-L-P
avg |proj error|
3.5
model vs final stat
avg proj bias
+0.93
model overshot
by market
Points
42.4%70–95
Rebounds
46.7%71–81
Assists
36.4%52–91
by confidence tier
High
42.2%132–181
Medium
48.0%36–39
Low
34.7%25–47
by game
NY @ SA
42.0%193–267
by bookmaker
draftkings
42.1%101–139
fanduel
41.8%92–128
largest projection misses
Jalen Brunson
Points · line 27.5 · final 45.0 · proj 26.5
±18.5
|proj err|
Jalen Brunson
Points · line 28.5 · final 45.0 · proj 26.5
±18.5
|proj err|
Jalen Brunson
Points · line 27.5 · final 45.0 · proj 26.5
±18.5
|proj err|
Jalen Brunson
Points · line 28.5 · final 45.0 · proj 26.5
±18.5
|proj err|
Jalen Brunson
Points · line 27.5 · final 45.0 · proj 26.5
±18.5
|proj err|
best calls (highest-edge wins)
Mikal Bridges
Points · line 10.5 · final 14.0
+20.7%
edge
Mikal Bridges
Points · line 10.5 · final 14.0
+20.7%
edge
Mikal Bridges
Points · line 10.5 · final 14.0
+19.7%
edge
Mikal Bridges
Points · line 10.5 · final 14.0
+18.9%
edge
Mikal Bridges
Points · line 10.5 · final 14.0
+18.8%
edge
NBA model audit notes
What the NBA settled data has been saying
Through 2026-06-13. 3635 decisive picks counted.
Signal
REB strongest, AST weakest
NBA REB hit at 54.5% on 1212 picks; AST hit at 45.1% on 1070. Markets to keep auditing in the next slates.
Signal
Edge-band 5–10pp band strongest so far
NBA picks in the 5–10pp edge band hit at 54.6% on 925; the 15–25pp band sits at 42.3% on 693. Calibration check, not a recommendation.
Signal
Lifetime NBA settled hit rate
49.1% on 3635 decisive picks. Pushes excluded; pending and insufficient-data rows never counted. The audit is still on an early sample — every new settled slate widens the denominator.
Over / Under split
- Over1121–1270 · 46.9%on 2391
- Under663–581 · 53.3%on 1244
Market split
- PTS640–713 · 47.3%on 1353
- REB661–551 · 54.5%on 1212
- AST483–587 · 45.1%on 1070
Edge band
- 0–5pp486–495 · 49.5%on 981
- 5–10pp505–420 · 54.6%on 925
- 10–15pp308–335 · 47.9%on 643
- 15–25pp293–400 · 42.3%on 693
- 25pp+192–201 · 48.9%on 393
NBA model lessons
- Anomaly guardrail working
R5 anomaly leans (capped at Low with a model-anomaly chip) hit roughly a coin flip on settled NBA rows; clean leans outperform. The cap is doing its job.
NBA settled rows audited: 3635 decisive.
- Edge band findings
Mid-band edges (10–20pp) outperformed both weak edges and anomaly-territory edges on this slate. The model was retired before this bucketing could be tested on more slates.
Single-slate signal — descriptive, not predictive.