Picks

Sportsbook prices next to our simulations

Market probabilities are de-vigged from the posted price — not the book's own numbers.

model 58.6% − market 66.6% = −8.0 pp

Our simulation says 58.6%; the sportsbook’s margin-free price implies 66.6% — pp is the gap between two percentages, not scoring points.

A large gap is not automatically a good bet — our settled record shows the model does not beat the market — treat it as a question, not an answer.

Full reading key · every term on this page

Model probability: What our simulation estimates the chance of this outcome to be. It is an estimate, not a prediction of what will happen.
Market-implied probability: The chance the sportsbook's price implies, after removing their built-in margin (the 'vig'). This is what the market thinks.
American odds: The sportsbook's price. −150 means you would risk 150 to win 100; +150 means you would risk 100 to win 150. A negative number is the more likely side.
Moneyline: A bet on which team wins outright, with no handicap.
Run line / spread: A handicap applied to the favourite, so both sides price closer to even.
Total: The combined score of both teams, priced over or under a line.
pp (percentage point): The unit of the difference column. It is the gap between two percentages — NOT scoring points, and not a percentage change. 58.6% and 66.6% are 8.0 pp apart.
Difference: Model probability minus market-implied probability, in pp. Positive means our model is higher than the market on the listed side; negative means lower. It is a measurement, not a recommendation.
Data freshness: When the price and inputs behind a row were captured. Older captures are less reliable.
Incomplete input: A required input (a lineup, a price, a stat) was missing when the row was built, so the model view is withheld or partial rather than guessed.
Qualified: A market that met the published policy for appearing on a paper card. Most rows are never qualified — that is normal.
No-play: The slate was checked in full and nothing met policy. It is a real answer, not a missing update.

Model-ranked picks · full list (2)

Every market the model ranked for 2026-09-06, ordered by its own ranking score. Ranking is model confidence and market reliability — not a prediction of profit, and not ordered by the size of the difference. Terms are defined in the reading key above.

1
Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 Strikeouts
WSH @ LAD · Strikeouts · 10:11 PM ET
model81.5%market51.2%difference+30.3 ppprice-105
model 81.5%market 51.2%+30.3 pp-105
last 3 5.7 K · season 4.1 K · 21 starts · flagged: edge above R5 anomaly threshold
Risk: r5_model_anomaly
2
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Hits
WSH @ LAD · Hits · 10:11 PM ET
model75.2%market71.8%difference+3.4 ppprice-254
model 75.2%market 71.8%+3.4 pp-254
last 10 1.40 · season 0.96 · 105 games
Risk: single-player variance

Current snapshotSportsbook snapshot captured Sep 6 at 1:05 PM ET· draftkings

Atlanta Braves@

Philadelphia Phillies

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Philadelphia Phillies48.9%50.4%-112-1.5 pp

Atlanta Braves51.1%49.6%-108+1.5 pp

Run lineModel + market

Philadelphia Phillies +1.562.3%62.3%-1870.0 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 840.9%51.1%-115-10.1 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–13 · push 8.3%

Simulation ran with incomplete inputs — treat the model side with extra caution.

Boston Red Sox@

Baltimore Orioles

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Baltimore Orioles45.9%45.1%+112+0.8 pp

Boston Red Sox54.1%54.9%-135-0.8 pp

Run lineModel + market

Baltimore Orioles +1.560.0%58.3%-156+1.7 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 752.1%53.1%-125-1.0 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–13 · push 12.9%

Los Angeles Angels@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Pittsburgh Pirates60.7%61.6%-181-0.9 pp

Los Angeles Angels39.3%38.4%+149+0.9 pp

Run lineModel + market

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.540.9%42.7%+124-1.8 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 754.7%51.8%-119+2.9 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–13 · push 12.4%

Detroit Tigers@

Cleveland Guardians

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Cleveland Guardians52.3%60.3%-171-8.0 pp

Detroit Tigers47.7%39.7%+141+8.0 pp

Run lineModel + market

Cleveland Guardians -1.531.7%40.9%+134-9.2 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 737.5%48.9%-105-11.4 pp

Simulated median 6 · p10–p90 2–11 · push 12.0%

San Francisco Giants@

New York Mets

Started

MoneylineModel + market

New York Mets50.7%58.4%-157-7.7 pp

San Francisco Giants49.3%41.6%+130+7.7 pp

Run lineModel + market

New York Mets -1.531.4%40.8%+134-9.4 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 835.9%50.6%-113-14.7 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–12 · push 7.6%

Chicago Cubs@

Miami Marlins

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Miami Marlins30.2%42.8%+123-12.6 pp

Chicago Cubs69.8%57.2%-149+12.6 pp

Run lineModel + market

Miami Marlins +1.542.1%55.1%-136-13.0 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 857.2%51.5%-117+5.7 pp

Simulated median 9 · p10–p90 4–15 · push 8.4%

Arizona Diamondbacks@

Houston Astros

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Houston Astros46.7%51.1%-115-4.4 pp

Arizona Diamondbacks53.3%48.9%-105+4.4 pp

Run lineModel + market

Houston Astros +1.561.4%63.1%-194-1.7 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 834.6%50.0%-110-15.4 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–12 · push 7.6%

Toronto Blue Jays@

Kansas City Royals

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Kansas City Royals42.8%46.9%+104-4.1 pp

Toronto Blue Jays57.2%53.1%-125+4.1 pp

Run lineModel + market

Kansas City Royals +1.556.7%58.1%-155-1.4 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 9.526.8%48.5%-103-21.7 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–13

Tampa Bay Rays@ $TEX logo$ Texas Rangers

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Texas Rangers53.7%49.7%-108+4.0 pp

Tampa Bay Rays46.3%50.3%-111-4.0 pp

Run lineModel + market

Texas Rangers +1.567.2%62.2%-187+5.0 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 7.541.7%49.6%-108-7.9 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–12

St. Louis Cardinals@

Colorado Rockies

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Colorado Rockies59.8%45.1%+112+14.7 pp

St. Louis Cardinals40.2%54.9%-135-14.7 pp

Run lineModel + market

Colorado Rockies +1.571.7%54.2%-131+17.5 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 1119.7%50.4%-112-30.7 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–13 · push 7.3%

Athletics@

Seattle Mariners

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Seattle Mariners43.4%64.2%-205-20.8 pp

Athletics56.6%35.8%+167+20.8 pp

Run lineModel + market

Seattle Mariners -1.527.3%45.1%+112-17.8 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 757.4%51.7%-118+5.6 pp

Simulated median 8 · p10–p90 3–14 · push 11.6%

Simulation ran with incomplete inputs — treat the model side with extra caution.

New York Yankees@

San Diego Padres

Started

MoneylineModel + market

San Diego Padres50.9%50.0%-110+0.9 pp

New York Yankees49.1%50.0%-110-0.9 pp

Run lineModel + market

San Diego Padres +1.564.5%63.0%-193+1.5 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 750.8%49.6%-108+1.3 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–13 · push 12.7%

Minnesota Twins@

Chicago White Sox

Started

MoneylineModel + market

Chicago White Sox34.3%57.3%-150-23.0 pp

Minnesota Twins65.7%42.7%+124+23.0 pp

Run lineModel + market

Chicago White Sox -1.520.1%39.8%+140-19.7 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 8.545.6%50.4%-112-4.8 pp

Simulated median 8 · p10–p90 3–14

Washington Nationals@

Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM ET

MoneylineModel + market

Los Angeles Dodgers52.1%63.6%-199-11.5 pp

Washington Nationals47.9%36.4%+163+11.5 pp

Run lineModel + market

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.532.5%45.9%+108-13.4 pp

TotalModel + market

Over 836.2%52.0%-120-15.9 pp

Simulated median 7 · p10–p90 3–12 · push 7.3%

Simulation ran with incomplete inputs — treat the model side with extra caution.

Market disagreement explorer

For each row: what the sportsbook price converts to, what the simulation produced, how far apart they are, what happened afterwards, and how rows that disagreed by a similar amount have performed historically. A difference is a disagreement between two estimates. On settled history the sportsbook price has been the better estimate, so a large difference is something to look at and never a recommendation. Paper and educational only.

2026-09-05 · 258 of 673 rows have a pregame capture record

Only rows with a pregame capture record are listed individually — rows whose observation time relative to first pitch cannot be proven are excluded from the list. They still appear inside the historical ranges below, where the number of rows behind every figure is shown.

Predictions switched off for this market

How each range has performed

Every settled row from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-05, grouped by how far the simulation sat from the sportsbook price. 38,519 rows are counted. 0 were refused by an integrity check and appear in no figure here. Ranges with no observations show no rate rather than a zero.

Range	Rows	Came in	95% interval	Brier
2 pp or more below the market	0	—	—	—
within 2 pp of the market	4,823	47.8%	46.4% – 49.2%	0.239
2–5 pp above the market	7,424	51.5%	50.4% – 52.7%	0.242
5–10 pp above the market	11,046	51.6%	50.7% – 52.5%	0.246
10–20 pp above the market	12,559	49.4%	48.6% – 50.3%	0.265
20 pp or more above the market	2,667	47.7%	45.8% – 49.6%	0.304

What this page does and does not show

A difference is reported in percentage points and nothing more. Our simulations have not been shown to out-predict the sportsbook — on settled history the market price is the better estimate — so a gap is a disagreement worth looking at, never a recommendation.

Freshness describes the captured file, not individual rows. The feed carries no per-row update time, so there is no “updated N minutes ago” anywhere on this page.

There is no opening price, no line movement and no trend history here, because no retained snapshot series exists yet. When one does, it will be built from prices captured going forward.