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Baseball
Homer NukesWho is most likely to go deep today?A home-run probability per batter, computed from free MLB Stats API season totals and the opposing starter's home runs allowed, each regressed toward the league rate.Open →
Football
Endzone VaultWho reaches the end zone?A team's projected points become a distribution over touchdowns, then that total is shared across the roster by each player's walk-forward measured share of his club's scoring. Calibrated on a held-out 2025 season; a probability is conditional on playing.Open →
UFC
Cage ChaosHow does this fight end — and in which round?Experimental model with three heads (winner, method and round), each tested on past fights. Winner forecasts are graded on every new card; method and round are not yet graded.Open →
SoccerComing soon
Goal RushWho finds the net today?Not built as a product — but its inputs exist: authorized EPL odds are captured for priced matchweeks, and an anytime-goalscorer model (not validated) publishes player probabilities on /epl. What is missing is the signature product assembled from them; until that is built and gated, nothing publishes here.What’s left to build →
BasketballComing soon
Bucket BlitzWho is filling it up tonight?Not built as a product — but its inputs publish on the NBA hub. Official Forecasts: favoured side (Elo rating), elo-derived game-winner estimate (accuracy not established) and Predicted Player Statistics (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM, PRA, P+R, P+A medians). Withheld: team scores, margin, total and ranges. No NBA player model is validated yet. What is missing is the signature product assembled from them; until that is built and gated, nothing publishes here.What’s left to build →
Mr. Dub — paper-portfolio scientist

Mr. Dub’s Paper Portfolio

Latest settlement · yesterdayNo qualified card today

Paper Portfolio ScientistEvery paper card, every official result, every bankroll move — no wagers placed, not advice.

Current era · Aug 15 – Oct 29, 2026 · official settlement only
$14,065.40−$5,000.00 this eraon 66 settled Bank Builder steps + 55 Moonshot runs
Paper bankroll $19,065.40 at the era’s start → $14,065.40 now · paper only
28–38Bank Builder · current era · 42.4% winMoonshot · current era 7–48Results settled through Oct 29 · last card settled Oct 15
Active ladder
—
lower-volatility ladder
Pending exposure
$0.00
0 product(s) live
Products active today
0
settlement pending
Results settled through
Oct 29
last card settled Oct 15, 2026
Today · Oct 30, 2026Results settled through Oct 29 · last card settled Oct 15
No active Bank Builder card for today yet — the next qualified card appears after slate generation.
Exposure $0.00 Bank Builder $0.00 Moonshot $0.00 WC $0.00· nothing at risk right now
Official money · card by card

Money movements

Every change to the protected bankroll, with the card that caused it. Since July a lost step costs its seed ($100 Bank Builder, $25 Moonshot) and a won step rolls its whole payout into the next rung without moving the bankroll — so a ticket's own result and the bankroll's change are shown separately.

Current bankroll
$14,065.40
results settled through Oct 29
Historical peak
$20,465.40
on 2026-06-24
Difference
−$6,400.00
current minus peak
Open exposure
$0.00
placed, not yet settled

Recent movements · 12 of 150

  • 2026-10-15Moonshot · Lane A · Step 1 · Won$14,065.40
    stake $25.00 → $100.41bankroll $0.00
  • 2026-10-15Bank Builder · Lane B · Step 1 · Lost$14,065.40
    stake $100.00 → $0.00bankroll −$100.00
  • 2026-10-15Bank Builder · Lane A · Step 1 · Won$14,165.40
    stake $100.00 → $240.67bankroll $0.00
  • 2026-10-12Moonshot · Lane A · Step 1 · Lost$14,165.40
    stake $25.00 → $0.00bankroll −$25.00
  • 2026-10-12Bank Builder · Lane B · Step 2 · Lost$14,190.40
    stake $307.21 → $0.00bankroll −$100.00
  • 2026-10-12Bank Builder · Lane A · Step 1 · Lost$14,290.40
    stake $100.00 → $0.00bankroll −$100.00
  • 2026-10-07Moonshot · Lane B · Step 1 · Lost$14,390.40
    stake $25.00 → $0.00bankroll −$25.00
  • 2026-10-07Moonshot · Lane A · Step 2 · Lost$14,415.40
    stake $101.42 → $0.00bankroll −$25.00
  • 2026-10-07Bank Builder · Lane B · Step 1 · Won$14,440.40
    stake $100.00 → $307.21bankroll $0.00
  • 2026-10-07Bank Builder · Lane A · Step 1 · Lost$14,440.40
    stake $100.00 → $0.00bankroll −$100.00
  • 2026-10-06Moonshot · Lane A · Step 1 · Won$14,540.40
    stake $25.00 → $101.42bankroll $0.00
  • 2026-10-06Bank Builder · Lane B · Step 1 · Lost$14,540.40
    stake $100.00 → $0.00bankroll −$100.00

Paper-only tracking; no wagers are placed. Shadow and research cards never appear here — only cards that were officially placed and settled.

History

All-time and June-era figures

Everything since the first $100 on Jun 9, 2026, including the two June ladders run under a different process. History — not the current record above.

Completed ladders · legacy history

2× $100 → $10K paper ladders completed in June 2026

Jun 9 – Jun 24, 2026 · run under the June multi-sport operator process, graded leg-by-leg from official results.A different era from the Bank Builder running today — historical record, not evidence for the current methodology, and not part of the current record. Paper-only · educational · not betting advice.

$100 → $10,376Jun 13$100 → $10,089Jun 24Full ledger →
Bank Builder · all-time 47–52 · Jun 9 – Oct 29, 2026
$100 on Jun 9, 2026 → $14,065.40 · +$13,965.40 · 139.65× on 99 settled bets · 53 settled days

Since the first $100 on Jun 9, 2026, including the two June ladders — a different era from the one running today, so these are history, not the current record.

Peak bankroll
$20,465.40
all-time high-water mark (June)
Below the June peak
$6,400.00
31.27% off peak
Total ROI · all-time
139.65×
99 settled bets · paper only
Win rate · all-time
47.47%
47W · 52L
Largest winning day
+$6,752.20
Jun 13, 2026
Largest losing day
−$400.00
Jun 25, 2026
Longest win streak
10
consecutive wins of 99 settled
Longest losing streak
3
consecutive losses of 99 settled
Completed ladders · legacy history

The $100 → $10K ladders

Two $100→$10K Bank Builder paper ladders completed in June 2026 (Jun 9 – Jun 24), each 5–0 in its own run — a small sample, not evidence the climb repeats, and not part of the current record. They were run under the June multi-sport operator process, a different era from the Bank Builder running today. Tap any rung for the card and its official result.

Crown = Σ completed ladders$20,465.4
Road to $10K — original crown ladder5–0 · $10,376.17
Dual Bank Builder Lane A — second $100→$10k5–0 · $10,089.23

Tap any ✓ rung to see the approved card, its legs and the official result. Won rungs roll into the next step; a lost $100 seed stops a lane. Paper-only.

Performance analytics

How the bankroll moved

Bankroll over time, daily P/L, drawdown, product attribution and a calendar heatmap — every series derived from official settlements. No fabricated metrics.

$20,465
Jun 9Oct 15
53 settled days

Day-by-day timeline

The complete story, newest first. Each day shows the record after settlement, the bankroll move and ROI; expand for every wager, its official result and payout.

Open $14,165.40 → Close $14,065.40Peak $20,465.40Drawdown $6,400.00 · 31.27%Products —
Day settled−$100.00
Show the 43 earlier settled days (2026-06-09 – 2026-09-25)
Attribution

Every wager, by product

Which product each settled paper wager came from — filter by product. The paper bankroll holds Bank Builder and, since Sep 10, 2026, Moonshot.

Show all 86 settled paper wagers
Oct 151 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 wins rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$100
Oct 122 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed)lost−$225
Oct 71 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Oct 62 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$200
Oct 51 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$125
Oct 42 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed)lost−$225
Oct 31 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 301 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 wins rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$100
Sep 271 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 2 wins rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$25
Sep 261 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$125
Sep 251 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$125
Sep 241 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$125
Sep 232 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each)lost−$250
Sep 221 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 211 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$125
Sep 201 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 191 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 181 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 172 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each)lost−$250
Sep 162 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$225
Sep 152 Bank Builder steps lost ($100 seed each) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$225
Sep 141 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 131 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 121 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 1 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 2 wins rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$125
Sep 111 Moonshot run lost ($25 seed) · 3 wins rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$25
Sep 101 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 91 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 81 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 71 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Sep 61 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Aug 171 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Aug 161 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Aug 151 Bank Builder step lost ($100 seed) · 2 Moonshot runs lost ($25 seed each) · 1 win rolled on, bankroll unchangedlost−$150
Jul 7Colombia or Draw Double Chance + Argentina to win Match Resultwonrolls
Jul 7World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jul 6Spain or Draw Double Chance + Belgium or Draw Double Chancewonrolls
Jul 6Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jul 5Brazil or Draw Double Chance + England or Draw Double Chancelost−$100
Jul 5Under 2.5 Total Goals + BTTS Yes Both Teams To Scorelost−$100
Jul 5Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jul 3Egypt or Draw Double Chance + Over 2.5 Total Goalslost−$100
Jul 3Egypt or Draw Double Chance + Argentina to win Match Result + Colombia or Draw Double Chancelost−$100
Jul 2Spain to win Moneyline (90′) + Over 2.5 Total Goals + Switzerland Match Resultwonrolls
Jul 2Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jul 2Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jul 1England to win Match Result + Belgium or Draw Double Chancewonrolls
Jul 1BTTS No Both Teams To Score + Under 2.5 Total Goalslost−$100
Jul 1Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jun 28Gabriel Avalos · Over 0.5 Shots Shots + Brian Brobbey · Over 0.5 Shots on Target Shots on Targetlost−$100
Jun 28Daizen Maeda · Over 0.5 Shots Shots + Netherlands or Draw Double Chance + Deniz Undav · Anytime Goalscorer Anytime Goalscorerlost−$100
Jun 27Argentina moneyline_90 + Both teams to score: No bttslost−$100
Jun 27Austria moneyline_90 + Both teams to score: No bttslost−$100
Jun 27World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 27World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 27World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 27World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 27World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 26Over 3 Total Goals + Both teams to score: Yes bttslost−$100
Jun 26Egypt or Draw double_chance + France moneyline_90wonrolls
Jun 26World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 26World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 26World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 26World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 26World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 25Dual-lane phase realized losses — 3 stopped-lane $100 seeds (preserved; not part of any completed ladder).lost−$300
Jun 25Japan or Draw double_chance + Over 2.5 Total Goalswonrolls
Jun 25Paraguay or Draw double_chance + Over 3 Total Goalslost−$100
Jun 25World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 25World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 24Morocco moneyline + Bosnia & Herzegovina moneyline + Scotland/Brazil Over 2.5won+$6,586.66
Jun 23Croatia moneyline + Under 2.5 total goalswon+$2,037.86
Jun 23Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jun 23Moonshot single-card lane (Jun 23 – Jul 6)lost−$25
Jun 23World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 23World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 23World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 23World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 23World Cup Specialslost−$10
Jun 21Egypt moneyline + Algeria moneylinewon+$863.15
Jun 19USA moneyline + Nick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs Under 2.5won+$403.68
Jun 18Mexico draw no bet + Juan Soto Hits Over 0.5won+$197.88
Jun 13Devin Vassell Rebounds Over 4.5 + Stephon Castle Rebounds Over 4.5won+$6,752.2
Jun 12United States or Paraguay + Luinder Avila Strikeouts Under 3.5won+$2,200.33
Jun 11Mexico + South Korea or Czechiawon+$694.88
Jun 10Stephon Castle Rebounds Over 4.5 + OG Anunoby Pts+Reb+Ast Over 23.5won+$516.91
Jun 9Shohei Ohtani Hits Over 0.5 + Corey Seager Hits Under 1.5won+$111.85

Won steps roll — $0 realized until a ladder banks or stops. The canonical bankroll is the core paper bankroll: Bank Builder and, since the Sep 10 reconciliation, Moonshot — a lost Moonshot run costs it the $25 seed (48 so far, −$1,200), a won step rolls. The Moonshot row below is the earlier single-card lane; World Cup Specials is separate flat-stake paper.

The wider platform · today’s plan across the paper products

Today’s paper portfolio

2026-10-30
$14,065.40
Current paper bankroll
$0.00
At risk today (ladder seeds)
$14,065.40
Available
$0.00
Potential return
$20,465.40
Peak paper bankroll
Bank Builder · Lane Aawaiting
$240.67 → $240.67—
$0 placed · not activated0/2 legs
No eligible legs available
Correlation checked: no shared game with Lane B — the two lanes can advance independently.Fewer than 2 eligible legs available — awaiting a full card.
Bank Builder · Lane Bawaiting
$100.00 → $100.00—
$0 placed · not activated0/2 legs
No eligible legs available
Correlation checked: no shared game with Lane A — the two lanes can advance independently.Fewer than 2 eligible legs available — awaiting a full card.
Moonshot · Lane Aawaiting
$100.41 → $100.41—
$0 placed · not activated0/2 legs
No eligible legs available
Every one of the 0 legs must land — a longshot by design; one miss loses the card.Fewer than two eligible legs on the slate — awaiting a full card.
Moonshot · Lane Bawaiting
$25.00 → $25.00—
$0 placed · not activated0/2 legs
No eligible legs available
Every one of the 0 legs must land — a longshot by design; one miss loses the card.Fewer than two eligible legs on the slate — awaiting a full card.

Daily paper portfolio candidates — no exposure placed; active bankroll and crown unchanged.

Separate · high-volatility

Moonshot Lane

A separate, higher-volatility paper ladder — tracked apart from the Bank Builder ladder and never blended into its record.

🌙 No Moonshot card is placed today: nothing on today's slate reaches the rung's price with two legs, and the ladder waits rather than force a card.

Current era 7–48 · Aug 15 – Oct 29, 2026 · settled receipts. Kept on its own line — it is not part of the Bank Builder record. Paper-only. Full Moonshot record →

History · June single-card lane 0–7 · Jun 23 – Jul 6, 2026A different product era — June multi-leg cards from the June 2026 ledger. History only; never added to the current record.
🌙 Moonshot Lane · lane trackerArchived

Legacy lane · last updated Mon, Aug 17 · the current Moonshot is the ladder above

7–48
Current era · Aug 15 – Oct 29, 2026
$0.00
Exposure
Fast ladder · $25 → $1,000
Style

A separate, higher-volatility product — not part of the core Dual Bank Builder, and its record never blends into the core. Paper-only.

High RiskMLBPending
Step 1 · cross-slate restart
moonshot-2026-08-17-mlb-a
+742
$25.00 → $210.45projected
GM
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red SoxGabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Total Bases · Total Bases-123Pending
SM
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay RaysShane McClanahan Under 4.5 Strikeouts · Strikeouts+101Pending
LC
San Diego Padres @ New York MetsLuis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs · Hits + Runs + RBIs+131Pending
Next

Awaiting a qualified higher-volatility card. Nothing is active; current exposure is $0.00.

Open the full Moonshot daily tracker →

Paper-only educational tracking. No wagers are placed. Mr. Dub is not a sportsbook and this is not financial advice. The bankroll moves only through official settlement; every figure on this page is derived from the settled ledger and reconciles to the $14,065.40 paper bankroll.