Picks vs outcomes
What each model predicted, and what actually happened, graded against official results. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
| Sport | Graded | Hit | Missed | Rate | What is being graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 49,911 | 25,107 | 24,804 | 50.3% | Player-prop projections: the model's over/under lean against the book's line, graded from the official box score. |
| NFL | 147 | 85 | 62 | too few to say | Game forecasts: the model-favored team (the higher frozen win probability), graded against the official final. This is historical model-favored winner accuracy, not a record of published picks. |
| UFC | 90 | 55 | 35 | 61.1% | Fight-winner picks: the model's chosen fighter and its probability, graded against the official result. |
| Premier League | 76 | 34 | 42 | 44.7% | Match-result forecasts: the outcome the model gave the most probability to, graded against the official full-time score. |
| Ligue 1 | 45 | — | — | no picks — log loss 0.8829 | Match-result (win/draw/win) probabilities, scored by log loss against the official final score — no pick is made, so there is no hit or miss. Over 2.5, both teams to score and scorelines are not graded yet. |
These numbers are not comparable with each other. They come from different models answering different questions over samples that differ by four orders of magnitude — thousands of player-prop projections against a handful of fight winners — so reading down this column and picking a best model is not something the numbers support. Each row links to its own record, where what it covers is stated in full.
A hit rate is also not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.
MLB · game predictions — a separate record
Winner, total and run line for each game, graded from the newest prediction revision generated before first pitch: Winner (moneyline) 423–403 · Total (over/under) 384–398–39 · Run line (simulated ±1.5, retired) 510–300 · Run line (posted line) 7–9. Not comparable with the player-prop record above and never combined with it — full game-level record.