Premier League
Next fixturesSat, Sep 12 – Sat, Sep 19times in ET · updated Sep 6, 6:51 PM ETFixtures
12 scheduled · 0 with a report · 0 with a supported read
- Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ETscheduledCrystal Palace v Ipswich TownNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ETscheduledLiverpool v FulhamNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ETscheduledAston Villa v Nottingham ForestNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ETscheduledBournemouth v BrentfordNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ETscheduledChelsea v Hull CityNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 12 · 12:30 PM ETscheduledTottenham Hotspur v EvertonNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM ETscheduledSunderland v ArsenalNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sun, Sep 13 · 9:00 AM ETscheduledCoventry City v Brighton & Hove AlbionNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sun, Sep 13 · 11:30 AM ETscheduledManchester United v Manchester CityNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Mon, Sep 14 · 3:00 PM ETscheduledLeeds United v Newcastle UnitedNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Fri, Sep 18 · 3:00 PM ETscheduledBrentford v ChelseaNo supported readforecast not published yet
- Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 AM ETscheduledTottenham Hotspur v Aston VillaNo supported readforecast not published yet
| Start | Fixture | Status | Our read | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ET | Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ET | Liverpool v Fulham | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ET | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ET | Bournemouth v Brentford | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 AM ET | Chelsea v Hull City | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 12 · 12:30 PM ET | Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM ET | Sunderland v Arsenal | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sun, Sep 13 · 9:00 AM ET | Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sun, Sep 13 · 11:30 AM ET | Manchester United v Manchester City | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Mon, Sep 14 · 3:00 PM ET | Leeds United v Newcastle United | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Fri, Sep 18 · 3:00 PM ET | Brentford v Chelsea | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
| Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 AM ET | Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | scheduled | No supported read | forecast not published yet |
Premier League
Simulation CenterLines pending· no priced fixturesBetween matchweeksNot validated out of sample. 26 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No win rate or accuracy figure is quoted, and this model has not been validated out of sample.
What these numbers are
These are the model’s own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
No fixtures inside the forecast window
Between matchweeks the model publishes nothing, which is the honest state rather than a stale card left up.
Every fixture we published a forecast for
What the model said before each kickoff, kept exactly as it was published. These are past fixtures; nothing here is a current read.
- Arsenal v Chelsea2026-09-06 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Everton v Manchester United2026-09-06 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Hull City v Aston Villa2026-09-05 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur2026-09-05 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Manchester City v Coventry City2026-09-05 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Brentford v Sunderland2026-09-05 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Fulham v Crystal Palace2026-09-05 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Newcastle United v Bournemouth2026-09-05 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Ipswich Town v Liverpool2026-09-04 · matchweek 3Open forecast →
- Aston Villa v Arsenal2026-08-31 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Manchester United v Ipswich Town2026-08-30 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Sunderland v Fulham2026-08-30 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Leeds United v Brentford2026-08-30 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United2026-08-29 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Bournemouth v Everton2026-08-29 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Coventry City v Hull City2026-08-29 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Liverpool v Nottingham Forest2026-08-29 · matchweek 2Open forecast →
- Fulham v Chelsea2026-08-24 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Newcastle United v Liverpool2026-08-23 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Manchester City v Bournemouth2026-08-23 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur2026-08-22 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Ipswich Town v Sunderland2026-08-22 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds United2026-08-22 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Everton v Crystal Palace2026-08-22 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Hull City v Manchester United2026-08-22 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
- Arsenal v Coventry City2026-08-21 · matchweek 1Open forecast →
Likeliest scorers
Shot-on-goal and scoring chances, read off the posted lineups.
Kai HavertzArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea88 apps56.6% SOG30.5%- Bukayo SakaArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea117 apps59.2% SOG28.8%
- Martin ØdegaardArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea114 apps46.1% SOG20.7%
Cole PalmerChelsea · Arsenal v Chelsea91 apps65% SOG18.9%- João PedroChelsea · Arsenal v Chelsea73 apps57.8% SOG16.9%
- Declan RiceArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea141 apps31.4% SOG13.3%
- Christos TzolisArsenal · Arsenal v Chelseano history32.4% SOG13%
- Viktor GyökeresArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea10 apps18.3% SOG11.4%
- Morgan RogersChelsea · Arsenal v Chelsea82 apps46.5% SOG10.7%
- Mikel MerinoArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea23 apps23.1% SOG10.7%
- Myles Lewis-SkellyArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea20 apps18.3% SOG10.2%
- Gabriel MagalhãesArsenal · Arsenal v Chelsea130 apps20.4% SOG9.5%
Validated out of sample — the receipt
Fitted on 45,788 appearances, then tested on a season it had never seen — 11,567 player-matches, log loss 0.25062 against 0.26043 for a position-only baseline, and it predicted 1040 scorers where 987 actually scored. Once an eleven is named, a side’s goals are shared across the men actually playing — the rows add back to what the match simulation expects that team to score.
- Three markets were measured under identical bars and REJECTED — plain shots on calibration, assists and cards on margin. They are deliberately absent rather than shown with a warning; see rejectedMarkets.
- No injury or suspension feed exists here, so an unavailable player can still appear in a conditional list.
- The source carries no minutes — participation is a discrete state (started or substitute), not an expected-minutes term.
- Conditional rows state P(scores | he starts). They are not a claim that he will start.
Graded so far · 26 matches
Read against the official result after full time. This is a log of what has been checked, not evidence the model works — that is a preregistered backtest, and it has not been run for this competition.
| Match | Result | Model gave the actual outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Coventry City | 3-0 | 69.1% |
| Hull City v Manchester United | 2-0 | 42.2% |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 34.9% |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | 2-1 | 16.0% |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | 0-1 | 23.6% |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | 3-0 | 41.9% |
| Manchester City v Bournemouth | 2-1 | 79.1% |
| Newcastle United v Liverpool | 2-2 | 22.0% |
| Fulham v Chelsea | 2-3 | 38.1% |
| Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 2-2 | 15.7% |
| Bournemouth v Everton | 1-1 | 30.5% |
| Coventry City v Hull City | 0-1 | 31.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 0-2 | 42.0% |
| Leeds United v Brentford | 1-1 | 25.2% |
| Sunderland v Fulham | 1-0 | 42.7% |
| Manchester United v Ipswich Town | 5-2 | 61.8% |
| Aston Villa v Arsenal | 0-1 | 53.1% |
| Ipswich Town v Liverpool | 0-2 | 83.5% |
| Newcastle United v Bournemouth | 2-2 | 17.7% |
| Brentford v Sunderland | 1-1 | 24.2% |
| Fulham v Crystal Palace | 2-3 | 31.2% |
| Manchester City v Coventry City | 1-0 | 99.0% |
| Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | 0-0 | 25.1% |
| Hull City v Aston Villa | 0-0 | 15.3% |
| Everton v Manchester United | 2-2 | 28.3% |
| Arsenal v Chelsea | 2-1 | 65.2% |
Player markets: 1400 projections graded, 1118 void because the player did not take the field the projection assumed — a condition that did not hold is never scored as a miss.
Today's ladder · 3 of 4 price bands
Each leg takes a market price on a settleable market — the three-way favourite, or an over/under at the book's own line. Never this model's read: the EPL model has cleared no bar and has never been scored against a no-vig line. Paper-only and educational — no stake is filled in, and nothing here has been settled yet.
Prices read 2026-09-06T22:51:10Z · card date 2026-09-12
Not built today: longshot — no combination of today’s prices lands in that band, and the band limits are not widened to fill them.
- not enough eligible priced fixtures to build a card. The calmest card built today is low — a shorter price, and less risk, than this band describes.
How the model's picks actually turned out
Match-result forecasts: the outcome the model gave the most probability to, graded against the official full-time score.
24 graded picks is far too few to say anything about accuracy. These are published so the predictions can be checked, not as evidence that they work.
This model has cleared no preregistered bar and publishes distributions rather than picks — the 'predicted' column is simply its likeliest outcome.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Hull City v Aston Villa | home win · 84.0% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Brentford v Sunderland | home win · 54.7% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Fulham v Crystal Palace | home win · 42.6% | away win (2-3) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester City v Coventry City | home win · 99.0% | home win (1-0) | HIT |
| 2026-09-05 | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | away win · 39.9% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle United v Bournemouth | home win · 65.6% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
Showing the 6 most recent of 24 graded.
What the model is most confident about today
What each simulation is most confident about today, ranked by the model's own probability — not by any gap against a sportsbook price. A watchlist, not a bet.
Premier League · Anytime goalscorer · Arsenal v Chelsea30.5%Premier League · Anytime goalscorer · Arsenal v Chelsea28.8%Premier League · Anytime goalscorer · Arsenal v Chelsea20.6%Premier League · Anytime goalscorer · Arsenal v Chelsea18.9%Premier League · Anytime goalscorer · Arsenal v Chelsea16.9%epl — Never scored against a no-vig line. 26 matches have been graded in total — far too few to support any accuracy claim.
NFL — not listed: the model does not currently tell these teams apart — its team-strength term was measured and found not to be statistically significant, so it produces near-identical reads for every game.
Paper-only and educational. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
2026-27 fixture list
Every fixture, whether or not the model can price it.
Saturday, September 12
Ipswich Townat
Crystal PalaceSat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET
Fulhamat
LiverpoolSat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET
Nottingham Forestat
Aston VillaSat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET
Brentfordat
BournemouthSat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET
Hull CityatChelseaSat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET
Evertonat
Tottenham HotspurSat, Sep 12, 12:30 PM ET- Arsenalat
SunderlandSat, Sep 12, 3:00 PM ET
Sunday, September 13
Brighton & Hove Albionat
Coventry CitySun, Sep 13, 9:00 AM ET
Manchester Cityat
Manchester UnitedSun, Sep 13, 11:30 AM ET
Monday, September 14
Newcastle Unitedat
Leeds UnitedMon, Sep 14, 3:00 PM ET
Friday, September 18
- ChelseaatBrentfordFri, Sep 18, 3:00 PM ET
Saturday, September 19
- Aston VillaatTottenham HotspurSat, Sep 19, 7:30 AM ET
Source: openfootball · captured Sep 6, 6:50 PM ET · showing the next 12 of 350
Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. Generated 2026-09-06T22:51:07Z from pregame inputs only; the model never sees a result from a match it is forecasting.