How each fight might end: the model's chances by method and round
Three separate estimates: who wins, the likeliest way the fight ends, and how far it is likely to go. Each was tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.
9 of 12 bouts carry a model read · Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET · Meta APEX. The other 3 have too little tracked history and are named below rather than guessed.
Ranked by how decisively the model reads it
Card order lives on the UFC hub; this is the product's own ordering. Every row opens the full bout report.
| Bout | Model pick | Win chance | Likeliest ending | Likeliest round |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos vs Luana SantosW Bantamweight | Model pickLuana Santos | Win chance80.4% | Likeliest endingDecision 69.7% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 77.7% · Goes the distance 69.7% |
| Renato Moicano vs Tom NolanLightweight | Model pickTom Nolan | Win chance74.7% | Likeliest endingDecision 37.5% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 57.0% · Goes the distance 37.5% |
| Dakota Hope vs Francis MarshallFeatherweight | Model pickFrancis Marshall | Win chance73.0% | Likeliest endingDecision 53.3% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 61.0% · Goes the distance 53.3% |
| Randy Brown vs Jacobe SmithWelterweight | Model pickJacobe Smith | Win chance57.8% | Likeliest endingDecision 49.9% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 57.9% · Goes the distance 49.9% |
| Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong LeeFeatherweight | Model pickJeongYeong Lee | Win chance56.9% | Likeliest endingDecision 46.1% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 54.5% · Goes the distance 46.1% |
| Mickey Gall vs Zach ReeseMiddleweight | Model pickZach Reese | Win chance56.5% | Likeliest endingDecision 39.9% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 47.5% · Goes the distance 39.9% |
| Piera Rodriguez vs Talita AlencarW Strawweight | Model pickPiera Rodriguez | Win chance56.3% | Likeliest endingDecision 77.3% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 83.9% · Goes the distance 77.3% |
| Ode' Osbourne vs Cody DurdenFlyweight | Model pickOde' Osbourne | Win chance56.2% | Likeliest endingDecision 51.3% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 58.9% · Goes the distance 51.3% |
| Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia SzabováW Flyweight | Model pickTainara Lisboa | Win chance54.3% | Likeliest endingDecision 47.0% | Likeliest roundEnds in round 3 or later 56.4% · Goes the distance 47.0% |
Bouts the model refuses
A fighter with no tracked history gets no invented read. These are named rather than dropped.
What each head was measured on
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.