How each fight ends — and in which round
Three heads, evaluated separately: who wins, how it ends, and how far it goes. Each publishes only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted — and all three cleared theirs, which no other model here has done.
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
11 of 13 bouts carry a model read · Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET · Desert Diamond Arena. The other 2 have too little tracked history and are named below rather than guessed.
The card
Ranked by how decisively the model reads it
Card order lives on the UFC hub; this is the product's own ordering. Every row opens the full bout report.
| Bout | Model pick | Win chance | How it ends | How far |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio BahamondesWelterweight | Ignacio Bahamondes | 78.7% | Decision 48.7% | R3 or later · distance 48.7% |
| Tim Elliott vs Édgar CháirezFlyweight | Édgar Cháirez | 77.6% | Decision 59.9% | R3 or later · distance 59.9% |
| Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel DelgadoFeatherweight · title fight | Jean Silva | 67.5% | KO / TKO 49% | R3 or later · distance 32.4% |
| Dan Ige vs David MartinezBantamweight | David Martinez | 65.1% | Decision 65.2% | R3 or later · distance 65.2% |
| JJ Aldrich vs Regina TarinW Flyweight | Regina Tarin | 64.9% | Decision 77.8% | R3 or later · distance 77.8% |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden SantosMiddleweight | Yousri Belgaroui | 64% | KO / TKO 42.8% | R3 or later · distance 41.9% |
| Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes AcostaHeavyweight | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 59.4% | KO / TKO 50.4% | R3 or later · distance 44.6% |
| Brandon Moreno vs Joseph MoralesFlyweight | Brandon Moreno | 59.3% | Decision 57.8% | R3 or later · distance 57.8% |
| Alexa Grasso vs Manon FiorotW Flyweight | Manon Fiorot | 56.7% | Decision 74.9% | R3 or later · distance 74.9% |
| Drakkar Klose vs Tommy GanttLightweight | Tommy Gantt | 51.9% | Decision 63.2% | R3 or later · distance 63.2% |
| Rafa Garcia vs RongzhuLightweight | Rongzhu | 51.7% | Decision 59.9% | R3 or later · distance 59.9% |
Not read
Bouts the model refuses
A fighter with no tracked history gets no invented read. These are named rather than dropped.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiNeither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.
Jessie Rosas vs Sean KingNeither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.
Evidence
What each head was measured on
Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50%
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7%
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3%
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.