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Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET · Flyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Meta APEX

Fight history: Ode' Osbourne · Cody Durden

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden

Flyweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Ode' OsbourneOde' Osbourne13-9-0
vs
Cody DurdenCody Durden18-11-1
Model pickOde' Osbourne · 56.2%Decision 51.3% · Ends in round 3 or later 58.9%
13-9-0Record18-11-1
13Tracked bouts16
56.2%Win chance43.8%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Ode' Osbourne has finished 3 of 5 wins (60%), and Durden has been finished in 7 of 9 losses (78%). The model's method read makes a decision more likely than not (51%).

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO30.5%
Submission18.3%
Decision51.3%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

25
R1
16
R2
59
R3+
Ends in round 1
25.2%
Ends in round 2
15.8%
Ends in round 3 or later
58.9%
Goes the distance
51.3%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Ode' Osbourne
13-9-0
Tracked record

1-4 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 3 of 5 wins came by finish (60%); 5 of 13 tracked fights reached the judges (38%).

Strengths · weaknesses
− 62% of tracked bouts are losses (8 of 13)
Tendencies
· Most wins come inside the distance — 3 of 5, mostly by KO/TKO (3 KO/TKO, 0 submission)
· Most losses come inside the distance — 5 of 8 (2 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
Last 5 tracked
LAlibi IdirisDecision R3
LSteve ErcegDecision R3
WLuis GuruleKO / TKO R2
LRonaldo RodriguezDecision R3
LJafel FilhoSubmission R1
Cody Durden
18-11-1
Tracked record

1-4 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 2 of 7 wins came by finish (29%); 7 of 16 tracked fights reached the judges (44%).

Strengths · weaknesses
− 56% of tracked bouts are losses (9 of 16)
Tendencies
· Most losses come inside the distance — 7 of 9 (2 KO/TKO, 5 submission)
Last 5 tracked
LAlessandro CostaSubmission R2
WJafel FilhoDecision R3
LNyamjargal TumendemberelDecision R3
LAllan NascimentoSubmission R2
LJose OchoaKO / TKO R2
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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