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Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29
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Bout 11 of 12

Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar

Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET · W Strawweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Meta APEX

Fight history: Piera Rodriguez · Talita Alencar

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar

W Strawweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Piera RodriguezPiera Rodriguez12-2-0
vs
Talita AlencarTalita Alencar8-1-1
Model pickPiera Rodriguez · 56.3%Decision 77.3% · Ends in round 3 or later 83.9%
12-2-0Record8-1-1
6Tracked bouts5
56.3%Win chance43.7%

The model reads it 56% — nothing in either tracked record separates them cleanly, so the number rests on the model's wider inputs rather than a headline stat.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO10.2%
Submission12.5%
Decision77.3%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

7
R1
9
R2
84
R3+
Ends in round 1
7.5%
Ends in round 2
8.6%
Ends in round 3 or later
83.9%
Goes the distance
77.3%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Piera Rodriguez
12-2-0
Tracked record

4-1 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 0 of 5 wins came by finish (0%); 5 of 6 tracked fights reached the judges (83%).

Strengths · weaknesses
+ 83% win rate across 6 tracked bouts (5-1)
Tendencies
· Wins rarely come inside the distance — 0 of 5
· Often goes the distance — 5 of 6 tracked fights reached the judges
Not established
? Only 1 tracked loss — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WSam HughesDecision R3
WKetlen SouzaDecision R3
WJosefine KnutssonDecision R3
LGillian RobertsonSubmission R2
WSam HughesDecision R3
Talita Alencar
8-1-1
Tracked record

4-1 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 1 of 4 wins came by finish (25%); 4 of 5 tracked fights reached the judges (80%).

Strengths · weaknesses
+ 80% win rate across 5 tracked bouts (4-1)
Tendencies
· Often goes the distance — 4 of 5 tracked fights reached the judges
Not established
? Only 1 tracked loss — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WJulia PolastriDecision R3
WAriane CarnelossiSubmission R3
WVanessa DemopoulosDecision R3
LStephanie LucianoDecision R3
WRayanne dos SantosDecision R3
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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