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Bout 4 of 12

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET · W Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Meta APEX

Fight history: Yana Santos · Luana Santos

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos

W Bantamweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Yana SantosYana Santos17-8-0
vs
Luana SantosLuana Santos11-2-0
Model pickLuana Santos · 80.4%Decision 69.7% · Ends in round 3 or later 77.7%
17-8-0Record11-2-0
12Tracked bouts7
19.6%Win chance80.4%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Luana Santos has won 6 of 7 tracked bouts (86%) to Santos's 7 of 12 (58%). The model's method read makes a decision more likely than not (70%).

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO16.1%
Submission14.1%
Decision69.7%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

11
R1
11
R2
78
R3+
Ends in round 1
11.5%
Ends in round 2
10.8%
Ends in round 3 or later
77.7%
Goes the distance
69.7%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Yana Santos
17-8-0
Tracked record

3-2 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 0 of 7 wins came by finish (0%); 9 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges (75%).

Tendencies
· Wins rarely come inside the distance — 0 of 7
· Most losses come inside the distance — 3 of 5 (3 KO/TKO, 0 submission)
· Often goes the distance — 9 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges
Not established
? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 58% win rate across 12 tracked bouts (7-5)
Last 5 tracked
WMacy ChiassonDecision R3
WMiesha TateDecision R3
WChelsea ChandlerDecision R3
LKarol RosaDecision R3
LHolly HolmDecision R3
Luana Santos
11-2-0
Tracked record

4-1 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 3 of 6 wins came by finish (50%); 4 of 7 tracked fights reached the judges (57%).

Strengths · weaknesses
+ 86% win rate across 7 tracked bouts (6-1)
Not established
? Only 1 tracked loss — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WKarol RosaDecision R3
WMelissa CrodenDecision R3
WTainara LisboaSubmission R2
LCasey O'NeillDecision R3
WMariya AgapovaSubmission R1
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

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