sample results — demo data
54.8% sample hit rate
248 sample leans · 2026-01-15 to 2026-04-29
sample leans
248
wins
132
losses
109
pushes
7
sample hit rate
54.8%
break-even ~52.4%
by market
Points56-43-3 · n=102
56.6%
Rebounds41-35-2 · n=78
53.9%
Assists35-31-2 · n=68
53.0%
at or above break-evenbelow break-evenbreak-even ≈ 52.4% on -110
by confidence
High38-22-2 · n=62
63.3%
Medium65-56-3 · n=124
53.7%
Low29-31-2 · n=62
48.3%
at or above break-evenbelow break-evenbreak-even ≈ 52.4% on -110
model calibration
predicted vs actualbucket size = sample count · dashed line = perfect calibration
Each circle is a probability bucket: x is what the model predicted on average, y is how often those props actually hit.
A perfectly calibrated model lies on the dashed line. Buckets above mean we under-predicted; below means we over-predicted. Bucket size scales with sample count.
Calibration matters more than raw hit rate. A 60% hit rate on props the model rated 65% likely is worse than a 55% hit rate on props rated 55% likely.
recent settled leans
| Date | Player | Lean | Result | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | Stephen Curry | Over PTS 27.5 | 32 | Won |
| Apr 29 | Luka Doncic | Under PTS 33.5 | 28 | Won |
| Apr 29 | Joel Embiid | Over REB 11.5 | 14 | Won |
| Apr 29 | Tyrese Haliburton | Over AST 10.5 | 9 | Lost |
| Apr 28 | Nikola Jokic | Over AST 9.5 | 13 | Won |
| Apr 28 | Jayson Tatum | Over PTS 28.5 | 30 | Won |
| Apr 28 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Under PTS 31.5 | 34 | Lost |
| Apr 27 | Jaylen Brown | Under PTS 24.5 | 22 | Won |
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Hit rate alone does not equal profit — sportsbook vig means break-even is typically ~52.4% on -110 props. ROI calculations are intentionally not shown until the methodology supports them rigorously.