Today· Sep 6Pregame slateSettled· Sep 5

Trust center

Results & Receipts

Track the official paper-card record, open exposure, settlement status, and model-performance receipts in one place.

Paper-only · educationalOfficial settlement onlyPending is not a loss

View settled cards →View MLB model audit →Open Mr. Dub’s Portfolio →

Official record19-14paper cards

Paper bankroll$19,065.40current

Peak (crown)$20,465.40high-water mark

Open exposure$0nothing at stake

Pending cards0awaiting official grade

Settled cards33decisive · graded to date

Official product-card record. Raw model-performance results are tracked separately, further down this page.

Settlement status

Live today

Latest slate2026-09-06 · no card settled (no-play day)

Open exposure$0 · no active paper cards

Pending settlements0

Cards settle on official finals only. When a slate produces no qualified card, it is a no-play day — no exposure is created and nothing is graded.

Products

Bank BuilderAwaiting next qualified cardRoad to $10K completed 5–0 MoonshotNo active longshotRecord 0-1 · separate paper lane Today's PicksDaily model hubThe day's model reads and no-play calls Parlay CenterSuggested cards + custom buildsModel-built cards — educational Soccer SpecialsWorld Cup model surfaceStructured specials + game reads MLB Model AuditGraded through 2026-09-05Raw projection performance — not the product record

Bank Builder — settled cards

Open Bank Builder →

Road to $10K · 5–0$100.00 → $20,465.40 · official

Lane A advanced — awaiting next qualified card. An awaiting lane is not a pending settlement and is not counted in the record.

Settled33 settled cards (19-14) · 1 completed ladderOfficially graded on final results. Losses are shown here too — the record above already counts them.

Pending0 pending settlements · 1 lane awaiting next cardPending cards are never shown as losses. Awaiting-next-card lanes are listed separately — they are not pending settlements.

MLB model performance

Latest grading · yesterday

Raw model-performance ledger — every published MLB projection graded against official box scores. This is not part of the 19-14 product-card record above, and the two are never combined.

Latest date2026-09-05

Decisive leans561

Day hit rate52.9%

Lifetime hit rate50.1%

Strikeouts 44.8% (29)Hits 58.7% (244)H+R+RBI 52.5% (244)Total bases 41.9% (90)

MLB results →Model audit →

How settlement works

Product cards settle on official finals only — never on in-progress or web-snippet scores.
A pending card is not a loss. It stays pending until the official result is in.
Pushes and voids are handled separately and excluded from the win/loss denominator.
Raw MLB model-performance grading is a separate ledger and never changes the product-card record.
No paper exposure is created without an approved card — no-play days create nothing.

Explore the record

Record type

Sport

Risk tier

From

Dates are the day the card was published and graded as a cohort — not the day an individual leg settled. A card whose legs cross midnight stays in one day. Settled cards run 2026-08-17 to 2026-09-05.

Whole published slips, graded once each under the policy frozen at publication. A slip wins only if every leg does — one winning leg is not a winning parlay.

all settled history

17.4%8-3846 decisive · 9 pending · 55 cards

Record by sport for all settled history
Sport	Record	Decisive	Pending	Period
Premier League	20.0% 1-4	5	—	all settled history
MLB	17.9% 7-32	39	5	all settled history
Mixed sport	no settled cards yet	0	—	all settled history
NFL	no settled cards yet	0	—	all settled history
UFC	0.0% 0-2	2	4	all settled history

By sport and risk tier

Settled cards by sport and risk tier for all settled history
Sport	low	medium	high	longshot	All tiers
Premier League	—			—	1-4
MLB					7-32
Mixed sport	—	—	—	—	—
NFL	—	—	—	—	—
UFC					0-2

A trailing +n counts cards that have not settled; they are in no rate above. A dash is an empty cell — no card of that tier settled in this period, which is not a loss. Mixed-sport cards are their own row and are never counted inside a single sport.

Day by day

all settled history · all sports · 18 of 20 days had a settled card. Column height is the number of DECIDED cards that day, so a one-card day cannot look like a trend. A day with nothing on it has no rate and is drawn as a gap, never as a zero.

Cumulative hit rate · pooled from summed counts, never averaged across days

The numbers behind these charts

Daily and cumulative record for all settled history · all sports
Date	Day	Decided	Pending	Day rate	Cumulative
2026-08-17	0-3	3	—	0.0%	0.0% · 0-3
2026-08-18	0-1	1	1	0.0%	0.0% · 0-4
2026-08-19	1-3	4	—	25.0%	12.5% · 1-7
2026-08-20	no card	0	—	—	12.5% · 1-7
2026-08-21	no card	0	—	—	12.5% · 1-7
2026-08-22	0-4	4	2	0.0%	8.3% · 1-11
2026-08-23	0-4	4	—	0.0%	6.3% · 1-15
2026-08-24	0-2	2	—	0.0%	5.6% · 1-17
2026-08-25	1-1	2	—	50.0%	10.0% · 2-18
2026-08-26	0-2	2	—	0.0%	9.1% · 2-20
2026-08-27	1-1	2	1	50.0%	12.5% · 3-21
2026-08-28	0-2	2	—	0.0%	11.5% · 3-23
2026-08-29	1-2	3	—	33.3%	13.8% · 4-25
2026-08-30	1-1	2	1	50.0%	16.1% · 5-26
2026-08-31	0-2	2	—	0.0%	15.2% · 5-28
2026-09-01	0-2	2	—	0.0%	14.3% · 5-30
2026-09-02	0-3	3	—	0.0%	13.2% · 5-33
2026-09-03	1-1	2	—	50.0%	15.0% · 6-34
2026-09-04	1-1	2	—	50.0%	16.7% · 7-35
2026-09-05	1-3	4	4	25.0%	17.4% · 8-38

A rising line is not evidence the model learned. These are whole published cards over a short period, their legs are not independent of each other, and no period here is long enough to support a claim about the future.

The 55 cards behind this record

Individual settled cards for all settled history
Date	Sport	Tier	Legs	Price	Result	Slip
2026-09-05	mlb	medium	2	2.86	win	slip_2026-09-05_conservative_ca54196217e8
2026-09-05	mlb	high	3	6.98	pending	slip_2026-09-05_balanced_e0d9e48237f7
2026-09-05	mlb	longshot	3	7.64	loss	slip_2026-09-05_balanced_5b027bb92333
2026-09-05	ufc	low	2	1.90	pending	ufc-low-2026-09-05
2026-09-05	ufc	medium	2	2.10	pending	ufc-medium-2026-09-05
2026-09-05	ufc	high	4	4.84	pending	ufc-high-2026-09-05
2026-09-05	epl	medium	2	3.12	loss	epl-medium-2026-09-05
2026-09-05	epl	high	3	6.33	loss	epl-high-2026-09-05
2026-09-04	mlb	medium	2	2.92	win	slip_2026-09-04_conservative_7c390b35b2d0
2026-09-04	mlb	high	3	4.54	loss	slip_2026-09-04_balanced_2bee02c34d6f
2026-09-03	mlb	medium	2	3.71	win	slip_2026-09-03_conservative_f900ffd5dd71
2026-09-03	mlb	longshot	5	30.13	loss	slip_2026-09-03_aggressive_bb7c938c16cb
2026-09-02	mlb	medium	2	2.76	loss	slip_2026-09-02_conservative_f87cbfaf4ea5
2026-09-02	mlb	high	3	6.69	loss	slip_2026-09-02_balanced_dfb953195e67
2026-09-02	mlb	longshot	5	34.12	loss	slip_2026-09-02_aggressive_b755d45b5390
2026-09-01	mlb	medium	2	2.72	loss	slip_2026-09-01_conservative_09997f5f3542
2026-09-01	mlb	longshot	5	39.16	loss	slip_2026-09-01_aggressive_36b88c13c50b
2026-08-31	mlb	medium	2	2.69	loss	slip_2026-08-31_conservative_c279195bb053
2026-08-31	mlb	longshot	5	35.93	loss	slip_2026-08-31_aggressive_e2a526bf6e8b
2026-08-30	mlb	medium	2	2.27	pending	slip_2026-08-30_conservative_1984dceacedd
2026-08-30	mlb	longshot	5	45.48	loss	slip_2026-08-30_aggressive_ad582ff3988d
2026-08-30	epl	medium	2	2.53	win	epl-medium-2026-08-30
2026-08-29	mlb	medium	2	3.18	win	slip_2026-08-29_conservative_eccb703ffb25
2026-08-29	mlb	longshot	5	27.29	loss	slip_2026-08-29_aggressive_732b9f46d3f3
2026-08-29	epl	medium	2	2.44	loss	epl-medium-2026-08-29
2026-08-28	mlb	medium	2	3.04	loss	slip_2026-08-28_conservative_ee70eec67f76
2026-08-28	mlb	longshot	5	30.71	loss	slip_2026-08-28_aggressive_910e0e45535a
2026-08-27	mlb	medium	2	2.65	loss	opt_2026-08-27_public_low_mlb_52b1319da1f3
2026-08-27	mlb	high	3	4.22	pending	opt_2026-08-27_public_medium_mlb_e97372044e32
2026-08-27	mlb	longshot	5	13.83	win	opt_2026-08-27_public_longshot_mlb_42ab1283f8ba
2026-08-26	mlb	medium	2	3.10	loss	slip_2026-08-26_conservative_26a76e6a2db2
2026-08-26	mlb	high	2	4.91	loss	slip_2026-08-26_conservative_08cde1627b1d
2026-08-25	mlb	medium	2	3.35	win	slip_2026-08-25_conservative_baf50ff03ad2
2026-08-25	mlb	longshot	5	42.39	loss	slip_2026-08-25_aggressive_6ef8e36de0cb
2026-08-24	mlb	medium	2	2.62	loss	slip_2026-08-24_conservative_4f8f00680e4a
2026-08-24	mlb	high	3	5.46	loss	slip_2026-08-24_balanced_aef097a3d015
2026-08-23	mlb	medium	2	2.32	loss	opt_2026-08-23_public_low_mlb_5b7bd33ca28d
2026-08-23	mlb	high	4	6.60	loss	opt_2026-08-23_public_medium_mlb_cf2e587083f0
2026-08-23	mlb	longshot	5	11.47	loss	opt_2026-08-23_public_longshot_mlb_e20cb76efdad
2026-08-23	epl	medium	2	2.40	loss	epl-medium-2026-08-23
2026-08-22	mlb	medium	2	2.66	pending	slip_2026-08-22_conservative_f12f43ed4ecf
2026-08-22	mlb	high	3	6.70	loss	slip_2026-08-22_balanced_e58186663874
2026-08-22	mlb	longshot	5	27.48	loss	slip_2026-08-22_aggressive_79b182e795f8
2026-08-22	ufc	medium	2	3.35	loss	ufc-medium-2026-08-22
2026-08-22	ufc	high	3	6.24	loss	ufc-high-2026-08-22
2026-08-22	ufc	longshot	2	15.65	pending	ufc-longshot-2026-08-22
2026-08-19	mlb	low	2	1.97	loss	opt_2026-08-19_public_low_mlb_209431d5ae10
2026-08-19	mlb	medium	2	2.26	win	opt_2026-08-19_public_low_mlb_df57240200b9
2026-08-19	mlb	high	3	4.53	loss	opt_2026-08-19_public_medium_mlb_6f33fcc0fb0c
2026-08-19	mlb	longshot	5	10.67	loss	opt_2026-08-19_public_high_mlb_17db1ad1db48

Showing the 50 most recent of 55. Narrow the range to see the rest — the totals above count every one of them.

4 chapters · about 21s · nothing to scroll

Four separate records · never blended

Model picks — every published per-sport model read vs the official outcome; graded from official results only.
Suggested parlays — the Lab’s own daily cards, by sport and risk tier; a card grades only when every leg has an official result.
Saved slips — cards readers built and kept (this page’s per-date sections below); a different population from the Lab’s suggestions.
Paper products — the Bank Builder / Moonshot bankroll journeys, settled card by card in their own ledger.

Every row we generated

These counts start from what the model actually produced, not from what happened to be graded. A row that never resolved, a slate we withheld, and a date we never produced a slate for each keep their place in this list — removing any of them would quietly improve every number beside it.

2026-09-06
In progress
Games are still being played. Rows resolve as they finish; nothing is counted early.
Generated
615
Win
0
Loss
0
Void
0
Pending
553
Unavailable
0
No play
62
No result on this slate has been decided yet, so there is no rate to show for it. Every generated row is accounted for.
2026-09-05
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
673
Win
297
Loss
264
Void
46
Pending
0
Unavailable
0
No play
66
Decisive record 52.94% (297 of 561 decided results on the 2026-09-05 slate; 95% interval 48.80%–57.04%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 607 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.
2026-09-04
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
689
Win
300
Loss
284
Void
34
Pending
0
Unavailable
0
No play
71
Decisive record 51.37% (300 of 584 decided results on the 2026-09-04 slate; 95% interval 47.32%–55.40%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 618 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.
2026-09-03
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
358
Win
162
Loss
127
Void
25
Pending
0
Unavailable
0
No play
44
Decisive record 56.06% (162 of 289 decided results on the 2026-09-03 slate; 95% interval 50.29%–61.66%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 314 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.
2026-09-02
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
581
Win
273
Loss
221
Void
43
Pending
0
Unavailable
0
No play
44
Decisive record 55.26% (273 of 494 decided results on the 2026-09-02 slate; 95% interval 50.85%–59.59%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 537 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.
2026-09-01
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
681
Win
311
Loss
260
Void
37
Pending
0
Unavailable
2
No play
71
Decisive record 54.47% (311 of 571 decided results on the 2026-09-01 slate; 95% interval 50.36%–58.51%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 2 row(s) were generated and gradable but produced no stat. They are recovered from the comparison report because the ledger does not record them.
- 608 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.
2026-08-31
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
533
Win
249
Loss
218
Void
23
Pending
0
Unavailable
0
No play
43
Decisive record 53.32% (249 of 467 decided results on the 2026-08-31 slate; 95% interval 48.79%–57.80%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 490 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.
2026-08-30
Complete
Every generated row reached a final state.
Generated
328
Win
135
Loss
133
Void
25
Pending
0
Unavailable
0
No play
35
Decisive record 50.37% (135 of 268 decided results on the 2026-08-30 slate; 95% interval 44.42%–56.31%). Every generated row is accounted for.
- 293 settled row(s) predate canonical event lineage and are labelled legacy rather than retro-stamped.

What each outcome means

Win: The official box score resolved above or below the line, on the side we took.
Loss: The official box score resolved against the side we took.
Void: The result landed exactly on the line, or the player never came to bat. Not a loss.
Pending: The event has not produced a gradable result yet. Not a loss.
Unavailable: The game finished but this row never produced a gradable stat. Not a loss.
No play: We generated no directional call here, so there is nothing to grade.
Withheld: Settlement was withheld because the data failed an integrity check. No outcome was published.

Risk ladder · paper stream

Parlays by risk level

One flat unit per card, 68 graded days (2026-05-25 → 2026-09-05). Return on investment is the column that matters: a hit rate cannot be read without the price it was paid at.

Tier	Price band	W–L	Hit rate	Paper ROI
Low risk	−200 to +100	137–213	39.1%	-3.1%
Medium risk	+100 to +300	63–291	17.8%	-5.6%
High risk	+300 to +600	45–309	12.7%	+8.3%
Longshot	> +600	24–333	6.7%	-7.1%
All tiers		269–1146		-1.9%

Every tier is negative. Published because the record is the point — a card shown without it is a claim, and this stream has not earned one.

Paper only · separate ledger · never part of the settled product record or the bankroll

Deeper transparency & model audit

Yesterday · September 5 · settled from official resultsFull results →

⚾MLB leans297W–264L52.9% decisive hit rate

The benchmark that matters: model vs sportsbook marketidentical settled rows · de-vigged · Brier (lower is better)

0.2559

raw model

0.2455

calibrated model

0.2413

market (de-vigged)

The sportsbook market remains the better probability on the settled record. Every hit-rate figure below should be read against that baseline — a projection clearing 50% is not the same as out-predicting the market. The raw model has averaged 9.1pp more confidence than the settled outcomes justified.

Model quality

Model Projection Accuracy

Individual picks are graded leg-by-leg against the line on settled slates. This is the cleaner read on the model — parlays are higher variance (see below).

Overall projection hit rateNot enough settled data—

MLB projections · live50.1%19,312 of 38,519 picks hit · above 50%

NBA projections · archive49.1%1,784 of 3,635 picks hit

Leg-level accuracy across settled slates since 2026-05-27. Pushes and voids are excluded from the denominator. Not a profit or guarantee claim.

What the model is learning

Working — markets clearing 50% on settled slates

NBA Rebounds 55.6%NBA Points 53.7%MLB Hits 53.0%

Improving — weaker markets, de-emphasized in conservative cards

MLB Total Bases 42.9%NBA Assists 44.5%MLB Strikeouts 47.2%

On settled slates, heavy favorites have hit 67.5% while plus-money props hit 41.5% — that's why plus-money lives in High Risk & Longshot, not the conservative Bank Builder.

We track every settled pick — including losing days — and weight markets from the results, not from hype. Sample-floored and shrunk toward 50% so a short hot streak can't inflate a number. Not a profit or guarantee claim.

Parlay card performance · higher variance

Parlays are stricter: every leg must hit for the card to cash, so card hit rate is naturally lower than individual projection accuracy. The published cards you saw are tracked below for full transparency.

Results

Settled slate: Sep 5

Public tracking from 2026-05-27. Slips are saved before games and graded after — hit rate counts only finished slips; pending and pushes are shown separately.

Published cards (shown to users) · lifetime19.0%· 269 W · 1146 L· 1415 decisive· 64 pending

All generated cards (internal tracking) · lifetime17.4%· 666 W · 3167 L· 3833 decisive· 172 pending

Published cards are the ones shown to users on Suggested Parlays before games. The second number is every card the model generated, tracked internally for transparency. Only settled outcomes count toward hit rate — pending games are not counted yet, and pushes are listed separately.

PregameSep 6 picks live in the Parlay Center until games finish.See today's slate →View today's picks →

Sep 5 breakdowns

published cards — by risk and by sport mix

The breakdowns below count the published cards shown on Suggested Parlays for this slate. The all-generated-cards record (every card the model produced, tracked internally) is the second card at the top.

Published cards by riskdecisive = wins + losses

Low Risk2–3 legs · under +300

Slips6

W · L5 · 1

Pending—

Hit rate83.3%

Medium Risk3–4 legs · +300 to +599

Slips6

W · L0 · 6

Pending—

Hit rate0.0%

High Risk4–5 legs · +600 to +999

Slips6

W · L1 · 5

Pending—

Hit rate16.7%

Longshot5–6 legs · +1000 and up

Slips6

W · L0 · 6

Pending—

Hit rate0.0%

Sections are derived from each settled official slip's combined odds and leg count using the same strict gate the Suggested mode applies pregame. Slips that don't fall in any section's window are tracked but not shown.

Published cards by sport mix

🏀 NBA-onlyNo settled slips on this slate.

⚾ MLB-only

Slips24

W · L6 · 18

Pending—

Hit rate25.0%

🔀 MixedNo settled slips on this slate.

Mixed = published cross-sport (NBA + MLB) cards. When no Mixed cards settled on this slate, the row reads zero.

Settled published cards· Sep 5status from the grader · never edited

Low Risk2–3 legs · under +3006 slips

Won⚾ MLB· 2 legs · +143

WINBryce Eldridge · SF vs NYM · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 4:11 PM ET
VOIDJazz Chisholm Jr. · NYY vs SD · Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 0.5Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET

Won⚾ MLB· 2 legs · +129

WINBryan Torres · STL vs COL · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET
WINAlec Burleson · STL vs COL · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET

Won⚾ MLB· 2 legs · +152

WINKaelen Culpepper · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINTrevor Story · BOS vs BAL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Won⚾ MLB· 2 legs · +137

WINBen Rice · NYY vs SD · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET
WINRiley Greene · DET vs CLE · Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 0.5 · final 11Sep 5 · 6:11 PM ET

Won⚾ MLB· 2 legs · +174

WINLawrence Butler · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINLiam Hicks · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 2 legs · +144

WINDrake Baldwin · ATL vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
LOSSJonah Heim · ATH vs SEA · Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET

Medium Risk3–4 legs · +300 to +5996 slips

Lost⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +456

WINMichael Massey · KC vs TOR · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINBryce Harper · PHI vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
LOSSOzzie Albies · ATL vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
WINGleyber Torres · DET vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 3 legs · +360

LOSSBrandon Nimmo · TEX vs TB · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINDylan Beavers · BAL vs BOS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
LOSSSamad Taylor · SD vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 3 legs · +403

LOSSChandler Simpson · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINCody Bellinger · NYY vs SD · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET
LOSSNolan Gorman · STL vs COL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +422

WINJunior Caminero · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINJavier Sanoja · MIA vs CHC · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 4:11 PM ET
WINJeff McNeil · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
LOSSCoby Mayo · BAL vs BOS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +473

LOSSEdmundo Sosa · PHI vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
WINJosh Bell · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINCal Raleigh · SEA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
LOSSFreddie Freeman · LAD vs WSH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 9:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 3 legs · +332

LOSSTy France · SD vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET
WINLuke Keaschall · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
LOSSDavid Fry · CLE vs DET · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 6:11 PM ET

High Risk4–5 legs · +600 to +9996 slips

Won⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +606

WINGleyber Torres · DET vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:11 PM ET
WINLawrence Butler · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINLiam Hicks · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINTrevor Story · BOS vs BAL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +632

LOSSJonah Heim · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINKaelen Culpepper · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINBryan Torres · STL vs COL · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET
WINDylan Beavers · BAL vs BOS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +612

WINAlejandro Kirk · TOR vs KC · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
LOSSAlex Bregman · CHC vs MIA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 4:11 PM ET
WINRyan Kreidler · MIN vs CWS · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINJake Burger · TEX vs TB · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +640

WINMichael Massey · KC vs TOR · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINBryce Harper · PHI vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
LOSSOzzie Albies · ATL vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
WINJunior Caminero · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINBen Rice · NYY vs SD · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 4 legs · +754

LOSSBrandon Nimmo · TEX vs TB · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
LOSSSamad Taylor · SD vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET
LOSSChandler Simpson · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
LOSSNolan Gorman · STL vs COL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +827

WINJeff McNeil · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
LOSSCoby Mayo · BAL vs BOS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
LOSSEdmundo Sosa · PHI vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
WINJosh Bell · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINCody Bellinger · NYY vs SD · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET

Longshot5–6 legs · +1000 and up6 slips

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +1071

LOSSJonah Heim · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINKaelen Culpepper · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINTrevor Story · BOS vs BAL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINBryan Torres · STL vs COL · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET
WINDylan Beavers · BAL vs BOS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +1066

WINTaylor Ward · SEA vs ATH · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINCal Raleigh · SEA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINAlejandro Kirk · TOR vs KC · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
LOSSAlex Bregman · CHC vs MIA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 4:11 PM ET
LOSSFreddie Freeman · LAD vs WSH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 9:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +1033

LOSSTy France · SD vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET
WINLuke Keaschall · MIN vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINJake Burger · TEX vs TB · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINWade Meckler · LAA vs PIT · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:41 PM ET
LOSSDavid Fry · CLE vs DET · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 6:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +1440

WINGleyber Torres · DET vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:11 PM ET
WINLawrence Butler · ATH vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 9:41 PM ET
WINLiam Hicks · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINBen Rice · NYY vs SD · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET
LOSSNolan Gorman · STL vs COL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 8:11 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 6 legs · +1044

WINMichael Massey · KC vs TOR · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINBryce Harper · PHI vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
LOSSOzzie Albies · ATL vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 6:06 PM ET
WINJunior Caminero · TB vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2Sep 5 · 7:06 PM ET
WINJavier Sanoja · MIA vs CHC · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 4:11 PM ET
LOSSSamad Taylor · SD vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:16 PM ET

Lost⚾ MLB· 5 legs · +1032

LOSSCarter Jensen · KC vs TOR · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINErnie Clement · TOR vs KC · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
WINBryan Reynolds · PIT vs LAA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3Sep 5 · 6:41 PM ET
WINRyan Kreidler · MIN vs CWS · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET
VOIDWalker Jenkins · MIN vs CWS · Hits Under 0.5Sep 5 · 7:11 PM ET

Daily model audit · 2026-09-0529W · 27L · 0 pending · 51.8% hit rate (56 slips)

Policy window: 7/3 confirming days — model demotions: market:batter_total_bases

2026-09-05

2927

51.8%

Winning slips· 29

Low RiskSlip hit

Missed slips · 27tap to expand

Conservative · 1

Low RiskSlip missed

Balanced · 4

High RiskSlip missed

Medium Risk · same-gameSlip missed

Star Power · 2

Low RiskSlip missed

High RiskSlip missed

Longshot · 2

LongshotSlip missed

longshot · 6

LongshotSlip missed

high · 5

High RiskSlip missed

medium · 6

Medium RiskSlip missed

low · 1

Low RiskSlip missed

2026-09-04

1442

25.0%

Winning slips· 14

Low RiskSlip hit

Medium RiskSlip hit

Low RiskSlip hit

Missed slips · 42tap to expand

Conservative · 3

Low RiskSlip missed

Balanced · 7

Medium RiskSlip missed

High RiskSlip missed

Medium RiskSlip missed

High RiskSlip missed

Star Power · 6

Medium RiskSlip missed

Low RiskSlip missed

Medium RiskSlip missed

High RiskSlip missed

Longshot · 8

High RiskSlip missed

LongshotSlip missed

Longshot · same-gameSlip missed

longshot · 5

LongshotSlip missed

high · 4

High RiskSlip missed

medium · 5

Medium RiskSlip missed

low · 4

Low RiskSlip missed

2026-09-03

452

7.1%

Winning slips· 4

Low RiskSlip hit

Low Risk · same-gameSlip hit

Low RiskSlip hit

Missed slips · 52tap to expand

Conservative · 7

Low RiskSlip missed

Balanced · 8

Medium RiskSlip missed

Star Power · 8

Medium RiskSlip missed

Longshot · 8

LongshotSlip missed

High RiskSlip missed

LongshotSlip missed

Longshot · same-gameSlip missed

longshot · 6

LongshotSlip missed

medium · 6

Medium RiskSlip missed

high · 6

High RiskSlip missed

low · 3

Low RiskSlip missed

Every older graded day has its own full page — slip by slip, nothing dropped; each still counts in the lifetime and by-profile records above.

2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25 2026-08-24 2026-08-23 2026-08-22 2026-08-21 2026-08-20 2026-08-19 2026-08-18 2026-08-17 2026-08-16 2026-08-15 2026-08-14 2026-08-13 2026-08-12 2026-08-11 2026-08-10 2026-08-09 2026-08-08 2026-08-07 2026-08-06 2026-08-05 2026-08-04 2026-08-03 2026-07-31 2026-07-30 2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08 2026-06-07 2026-06-06 2026-06-05 2026-06-04 2026-06-03 2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-27

By model profile

historical view · the framing we shipped earlier

Overall17.4%666–3167 on 3833 decisive · 1 push

Conservative33.0%181–367 on 548 decisive

Balanced12.7%72–493 on 565 decisive

Star Power15.9%91–483 on 574 decisive

High variance7.0%40–534 on 574 decisive

🏀 NBA17.9%14–64 on 78 decisive

⚾ MLB17.4%601–2861 on 3462 decisive · 1 push

🔀 Mixed17.4%51–242 on 293 decisive

Hit rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses). Pushes and pending slips are excluded from the denominator. "Pending" is shown separately so you always know how many slips are still in flight.

Learning signals· 1 confirmed · 2 in review · 13 tracking · 1 too smallclick to expand

Learning signalsinformational · no card-selection change

Conservative profileWithin the variance band; no action needed.
Sample548 (n ≥ 60)
Direction+15.7pp vs lifetime
Tracking
Balanced profileWithin the variance band; no action needed.
Sample565 (n ≥ 60)
Direction-4.6pp vs lifetime
Tracking
Aggressive profilePast the n + gap thresholds — qualifies for silent evaluation before any card-selection change.
Sample574 (n ≥ 60)
Direction-10.4pp vs lifetime
Shadow-test candidate
Star Power profileWithin the variance band; no action needed.
Sample574 (n ≥ 60)
Direction-1.5pp vs lifetime
Tracking
Low Risk sectionWithin the published floor; section cap stays unchanged.
Sample350 (n ≥ 40)
Direction39.1% hit · floor 35%
Tracking
Medium Risk sectionBelow the published floor and past the n=40 gate — flagged for shadow evaluation.
Sample354 (n ≥ 40)
Direction17.8% hit · floor 22%
Shadow-test candidate
High Risk sectionWithin the published floor; section cap stays unchanged.
Sample354 (n ≥ 40)
Direction12.7% hit · floor 12%
Tracking
Longshot sectionWithin the published floor; section cap stays unchanged.
Sample357 (n ≥ 40)
Direction6.7% hit · floor 6%
Tracking
NBA-only publicSample below n=40; needs 22 more decisive slips before this bucket can move audit-policy state.
Sample18 (n < 40)
Direction27.8% hit · 5-13
Too small to act on
MLB-only publicTracked at the audit-policy level — no behavior change yet.
Sample1418 (n ≥ 40)
Direction18.3% hit · 259-1159
Tracking
Mixed (NBA + MLB) publicTracked at the audit-policy level — no behavior change yet.
Sample99 (n ≥ 40)
Direction9.1% hit · 9-90
Tracking
Audit signal · mixedSportDownrankFired 0 of 3 required days; still under threshold.
Sample0 (n < 3)
Directionfires tracked
Tracking
Audit signal · sameGameNbaCapFired 0 of 3 required days; still under threshold.
Sample0 (n < 3)
Directionfires tracked
Tracking
Audit signal · market:batter_hits_runs_rbisFired 1 of 3 required days; still under threshold.
Sample1 (n < 3)
Directionfires tracked
Tracking
Audit signal · market:batter_total_basesConfirming-days threshold cleared — pending operator approval before card selection uses it.
Sample5 (n ≥ 3)
Directionfires tracked
Confirmed · operator review
Audit signal · dnpGuardStrengthenFired 0 of 3 required days; still under threshold.
Sample0 (n < 3)
Directionfires tracked
Tracking
Audit signal · longshotKeepCollapsedFired 0 of 1 required days; still under threshold.
Sample0 (n < 1)
Directionfires tracked
Tracking

Every signal here is tracked first, reviewed internally second, and only then considered for card selection. We never say the model "learned" from a single slate, and we do not consume an audit signal until the confirming-days threshold in the policy clears.

Methodology · audit trail

How the model improves over time.

Three things happen after every slate. The first two are automatic. The third is a slow loop — by design.

Settlement
Once games finish, every saved slip is graded against final stats. Wins, losses, pushes, and pending are recorded by the nightly settler. We never edit outcomes by hand and we never use a slate's final results to alter that slate's pre-game suggestions.
Daily projection audit
Per-prop accuracy is compared to the model's pre-game projection on every settled lean. Per-sport audits live at /results/nba and /results/mlb. The raw audit JSON is published alongside this site, so every number here can be checked end-to-end.
Signal review
Underperforming markets, tiers, or matchup shapes get flagged via the audit policy you can see in the banner above. A signal has to repeat across a configured window of confirming days before it can affect card selection. One slate never changes the model on its own.

What changed recently

We found a grading blind spot. Hits + Runs + RBIs props used to come back unresolved because the MLB grader didn't know how to read them. They now grade off the box score the same way Hits and Total Bases do.
We track public risk sections separately. Low / Medium / High / Longshot get their own results row. The hit rate you see on Results matches what you saw on the Parlay Center the day before, not a re-bucketing.
We still need a sample before any model behavior moves. Every Learning Signals row says exactly how many more decisive slips it needs before its gate can fire. Confirmed signals stay operator-gated and aren't consumed automatically.

Learning roadmap

What happens next: audit signals are tracked first, reviewed internally second, and only then considered for the card selection. Advanced ML ideas are on the roadmap, but not active until they beat the current rules in out-of-time tests. Full sequence — MODEL_LEARNING_ROADMAP_2026-05-28.md.

What we explicitly don't claim

We do not call this a learning model. Until an audit signal is explicitly consumed by card selection, every flag in the banner above is informational only.
Custom parlays from Build Your Own are not included in the public hit rate. They're exploratory.
Bankroll Plan is an educational allocation planner — not financial advice.
Single-game NBA cards in the Parlay Center are labeled higher variance because every leg shares one matchup. That label is the framing, not a hedge.

Want projection-level accuracy?Per-prop hit rate on every settled lean is on the legacy audit pages.

NBA audit →MLB audit →