- WINCarter Jensen · KC vs STL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- VOIDHa-Seong Kim · ATL vs SF · Hits + Runs + RBIs Under 1.5
Yesterday · July 4 · settled from official resultsFull results →
How to read this page
- Projection accuracy — how often individual player projections beat the line (the cleanest read on model quality).
- Published cards — the parlays actually shown to users on Suggested Parlays; all generated cards is the broader model output tracked internally.
- Only settled outcomes count toward hit rate — pending games are not counted yet; pushes are listed separately.
- Detailed per-slip rows are tucked under the sections below. Educational analytics — not betting advice.
Model quality
Model Projection Accuracy
Individual picks are graded leg-by-leg against the line on settled slates. This is the cleaner read on the model — parlays are higher variance (see below).
Overall projection hit rate50.2%10,147 of 20,202 picks hit · above 50%
MLB projections50.5%8,363 of 16,567 picks hit · above 50%
NBA projections49.1%1,784 of 3,635 picks hit
Leg-level accuracy across settled slates since 2026-05-27. Pushes and voids are excluded from the denominator. Not a profit or guarantee claim.
Working — markets clearing 50% on settled slates
NBA Rebounds 55.6%NBA Points 53.7%MLB Hits 53.0%
Improving — weaker markets, de-emphasized in conservative cards
MLB Total Bases 42.9%NBA Assists 44.5%MLB Strikeouts 47.2%
On settled slates, heavy favorites have hit 67.5% while plus-money props hit 41.5% — that's why plus-money lives in High Risk & Longshot, not the conservative Bank Builder.
We track every settled pick — including losing days — and weight markets from the results, not from hype. Sample-floored and shrunk toward 50% so a short hot streak can't inflate a number. Not a profit or guarantee claim.
Parlay card performance · higher variance
Parlays are stricter: every leg must hit for the card to cash, so card hit rate is naturally lower than individual projection accuracy. The published cards you saw are tracked below for full transparency.
Suggested-parlay grading · settled through 2026-06-18Latest grading · 17 days ago
The suggested-parlay optimizer track record below is settled through 2026-06-18 (17 days ago) — newer slates are awaiting grading, so this is NOT a live scoreboard. World Cup and MLB settle in their own products (World Cup on the Track Record / Bank Builder pages). Nothing here is counted as a win or loss until officially graded.
Results
Settled slate: Jun 18
Public tracking from 2026-05-27. Slips are saved before games and graded after — hit rate counts only finished slips; pending and pushes are shown separately.
Published cards (shown to users) · lifetime17.0%· 70 W · 342 L· 412 decisive· 35 pending
All generated cards (internal tracking) · lifetime15.5%· 231 W · 1256 L· 1487 decisive· 110 pending
Published cards are the ones shown to users on Suggested Parlays before games. The second number is every card the model generated, tracked internally for transparency. Only settled outcomes count toward hit rate — pending games are not counted yet, and pushes are listed separately.
Jun 18 breakdowns
published cards — by risk and by sport mixThe breakdowns below count the published cards shown on Suggested Parlays for this slate. The all-generated-cards record (every card the model produced, tracked internally) is the second card at the top.
Low Risk2–3 legs · under +300
Slips6
W · L2 · 3
Pending0 · 1P
Hit rate40.0%
Medium Risk3–4 legs · +300 to +599
Slips6
W · L1 · 5
Pending—
Hit rate16.7%
High Risk4–5 legs · +600 to +999
Slips6
W · L0 · 6
Pending—
Hit rate0.0%
Longshot5–6 legs · +1000 and up
Slips6
W · L0 · 6
Pending—
Hit rate0.0%
Sections are derived from each settled official slip's combined odds and leg count using the same strict gate the Suggested mode applies pregame. Slips that don't fall in any section's window are tracked but not shown.
🏀 NBA-onlyNo settled slips on this slate.
⚾ MLB-only
Slips24
W · L3 · 20
Pending0 · 1P
Hit rate13.0%
🔀 MixedNo settled slips on this slate.
Mixed = published cross-sport (NBA + MLB) cards. When no Mixed cards settled on this slate, the row reads zero.
Low Risk2–3 legs · under +3006 slips
- WINPaul Goldschmidt · NYY vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- WINJake Burger · TEX vs MIN · Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 0.5 · final 1
- WINJosh Bell · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- LOSSJackson Chourio · MIL vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- VOIDDrake Baldwin · ATL vs SF · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSByron Buxton · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINFrancisco Alvarez · NYM vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSLogan O'Hoppe · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- VOIDBryce Eldridge · SF vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5
- VOIDMatt Olson · ATL vs SF · Hits Over 0.5
Medium Risk3–4 legs · +300 to +5996 slips
- VOIDHa-Seong Kim · ATL vs SF · Hits Under 0.5
- VOIDMatt Olson · ATL vs SF · Hits Over 0.5
- WINCarter Jensen · KC vs STL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- WINSam Antonacci · CWS vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSDenzer Guzman · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- VOIDDaniel Susac · SF vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSGeorge Springer · TOR vs BOS · Hits Under 1.5 · final 2
- WINJuan Soto · NYM vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- LOSSCaleb Durbin · BOS vs TOR · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- VOIDNathan Church · STL vs KC · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSJo Adell · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINJ.T. Realmuto · PHI vs NYM · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0
- WINBryson Stott · PHI vs NYM · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSRoyce Lewis · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINVladimir Guerrero Jr. · TOR vs BOS · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1
- LOSSJ.P. Crawford · SEA vs BAL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- LOSSBrice Turang · MIL vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINCal Raleigh · SEA vs BAL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0
- WINJac Caglianone · KC vs STL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
High Risk4–5 legs · +600 to +9996 slips
- LOSSJackson Chourio · MIL vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINPaul Goldschmidt · NYY vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- VOIDBryce Eldridge · SF vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSCaleb Durbin · BOS vs TOR · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSBlake Perkins · MIL vs CLE · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- WINChristian Yelich · MIL vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSConnor Wong · BOS vs TOR · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINLuke Keaschall · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- LOSSTaylor Ward · BAL vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- LOSSDavid Fry · CLE vs MIL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- WINVictor Caratini · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3
- LOSSCody Bellinger · NYY vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINSam Antonacci · CWS vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSDenzer Guzman · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- VOIDDaniel Susac · SF vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5
- WINLuke Keaschall · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- LOSSPete Alonso · BAL vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- LOSSBo Bichette · NYM vs PHI · Hits Over 1.5 · final 0
- WINJosh Jung · TEX vs MIN · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- WINBrandon Valenzuela · TOR vs BOS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- VOIDDrake Baldwin · ATL vs SF · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSByron Buxton · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINFrancisco Alvarez · NYM vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSLogan O'Hoppe · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINJosh Bell · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
Longshot5–6 legs · +1000 and up6 slips
- VOIDHa-Seong Kim · ATL vs SF · Hits Under 0.5
- WINSam Antonacci · CWS vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- VOIDMatt Olson · ATL vs SF · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSDenzer Guzman · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINCarter Jensen · KC vs STL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- LOSSGeorge Springer · TOR vs BOS · Hits Under 1.5 · final 2
- WINJuan Soto · NYM vs PHI · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- VOIDNathan Church · STL vs KC · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSJo Adell · LAA vs ATH · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINJ.T. Realmuto · PHI vs NYM · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0
- WINJosh Bell · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 2
- LOSSJackson Chourio · MIL vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINPaul Goldschmidt · NYY vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- VOIDBryce Eldridge · SF vs ATL · Hits Over 0.5
- LOSSCaleb Durbin · BOS vs TOR · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSJ.P. Crawford · SEA vs BAL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- LOSSBrice Turang · MIL vs CLE · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- LOSSCody Bellinger · NYY vs CWS · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINCal Raleigh · SEA vs BAL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 0
- WINJac Caglianone · KC vs STL · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- WINBryson Stott · PHI vs NYM · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSRoyce Lewis · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- WINVladimir Guerrero Jr. · TOR vs BOS · Hits Under 1.5 · final 1
- LOSSTaylor Ward · BAL vs SEA · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
- LOSSBlake Perkins · MIL vs CLE · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSDavid Fry · CLE vs MIL · Hits Under 0.5 · final 1
- WINVictor Caratini · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 3
- WINChase Meidroth · CWS vs NYY · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- WINKody Clemens · MIN vs TEX · Hits Over 0.5 · final 1
- LOSSConnor Wong · BOS vs TOR · Hits Over 0.5 · final 0
Daily model audit · 2026-07-040W · 0L · 0 pending · 0.0% hit rate (0 slips)
Policy window: 7/3 confirming days — no model demotions active yet.
optimizer-graded file missing for 2026-07-04
2026-06-18
11441
20.0%Winning slips· 11
Missed slips · 44tap to expand
Conservative · 1
Balanced · 8
Star Power · 7
Longshot · 8
longshot · 6
high · 6
medium · 5
low · 3
Pending / DNP · 1excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · same-gameSlip push
2026-06-17
1046
17.9%Winning slips· 10
Missed slips · 46tap to expand
Conservative · 8
Balanced · 6
Star Power · 8
Longshot · 6
longshot · 5
high · 6
low · 3
medium · 4
2026-06-16
947
16.1%Winning slips· 9
Missed slips · 47tap to expand
Conservative · 8
Balanced · 8
Star Power · 8
Longshot · 8
longshot · 5
high · 3
low · 3
medium · 4
2026-06-15
4502
7.4%Winning slips· 4
Missed slips · 50tap to expand
Conservative · 7
Balanced · 8
Star Power · 8
Longshot · 8
longshot · 6
high · 4
medium · 4
low · 5
Pending / DNP · 2excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 2 legs pendingMedium Risk+327
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+586
2026-06-14
4502
7.4%Winning slips· 4
Missed slips · 50tap to expand
Conservative · 8
Balanced · 8
Star Power · 8
Longshot · 8
longshot · 6
high · 5
low · 2
medium · 5
Pending / DNP · 2excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+324
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+727
2026-06-13
317940
28.2%Winning slips· 31
Missed slips · 79tap to expand
Conservative · 4
Balanced · 6
Star Power · 7
Single-game · higher variance
Longshot · 10
Single-game · higher variance
longshot · 14
high · 13
medium · 12
low · 13
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Pending / DNP · 40excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+179
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+184
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+122
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk · same-game+446
All 3 legs pendingHigh Risk+694
All 3 legs pendingLow Risk+209
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk · same-game+433
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk · same-game+415
All 4 legs pendingLongshot · same-game+1023
All 3 legs pendingHigh Risk · same-game+982
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk · same-game+479
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk · same-game+784
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk · same-game+805
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+456
All 4 legs pendingLongshot+1007
All 5 legs pendingLongshot+1254
All 5 legs pendingLongshot+1228
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+836
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+754
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+738
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game-119
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+129
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+127
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+127
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game-127
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+102
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+103
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+518
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+117
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+117
Single-game · higher variance
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+550
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+127
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+547
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+124
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+167
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game-102
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+120
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+189
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+166
Single-game · higher variance
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+626
2026-06-12
5429
10.6%Winning slips· 5
Missed slips · 42tap to expand
Conservative · 2
Balanced · 8
Star Power · 8
Longshot · 8
high · 4
longshot · 4
low · 2
medium · 6
Pending / DNP · 9excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+174
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+115
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+287
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+108
All 5 legs pendingLongshot+1100
All 6 legs pendingLongshot+1080
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+672
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+116
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+120
2026-06-11
9461
16.4%Winning slips· 9
Missed slips · 46tap to expand
Conservative · 7
Balanced · 8
Star Power · 6
Longshot · 8
longshot · 6
medium · 6
high · 4
low · 1
Pending / DNP · 1excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk-111
2026-06-10
199732
16.4%Winning slips· 19
Missed slips · 97tap to expand
Conservative · 14
Balanced · 10
Single-game · higher variance
Star Power · 16
Single-game · higher variance
Longshot · 14
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
longshot · 15
high · 11
medium · 13
low · 4
Single-game · higher variance
Single-game · higher variance
Pending / DNP · 32excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk · same-game+494
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk · same-game+306
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+111
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+306
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+156
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+424
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+397
All 4 legs pendingMedium Risk+527
All 5 legs pendingLongshot+1057
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+615
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+618
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk+760
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+288
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+288
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+288
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · same-game+116
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+104
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · same-game+122
All 5 legs pendingHigh Risk+619
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+119
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+119
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game-128
Single-game · higher variance
All 5 legs pendingHigh Risk+632
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+158
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+135
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+122
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+135
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk-106
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+255
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+132
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+136
Single-game · higher variance
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk · single-game+108
Single-game · higher variance
2026-06-09
21296
42.0%Winning slips· 21
Missed slips · 29tap to expand
Conservative · 3
Balanced · 4
Star Power · 1
Longshot · 6
longshot · 4
low · 4
high · 4
medium · 3
Pending / DNP · 6excluded from hit rate
Pending here means the slip is either still in flight, or one of its legs ended up with the player DNP / box score unavailable. These slips are never counted as wins or losses — they sit out of the decisive denominator until they settle.
All 3 legs pendingMedium Risk+406
All 4 legs pendingHigh Risk · same-game+832
All 6 legs pendingLongshot+1003
All 5 legs pendingHigh Risk+607
All 4 legs pendingMedium Risk+361
All 2 legs pendingLow Risk+150
12 older graded days (2026-05-27 → 2026-06-08) are not listed slip-by-slip to keep this page fast — every one of those slips is still counted in the lifetime hit rate and by-profile records above. Nothing is dropped from the record.
By model profile
historical view · the framing we shipped earlierOverall15.5%231–1256 on 1487 decisive · 1 push
Conservative30.7%65–147 on 212 decisive
Balanced13.0%30–200 on 230 decisive
Star Power14.7%35–203 on 238 decisive
High variance7.6%18–220 on 238 decisive
🏀 NBA17.9%14–64 on 78 decisive
⚾ MLB14.9%166–950 on 1116 decisive · 1 push
🔀 Mixed17.4%51–242 on 293 decisive
Hit rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses). Pushes and pending slips are excluded from the denominator. "Pending" is shown separately so you always know how many slips are still in flight.
Learning signals· 4 in review · 10 tracking · 1 too smallclick to expand
- Conservative profileWithin the variance band; no action needed.Sample212 (n ≥ 60)Direction+15.1pp vs lifetimeTracking
- Balanced profileWithin the variance band; no action needed.Sample230 (n ≥ 60)Direction-2.5pp vs lifetimeTracking
- Aggressive profilePast the n + gap thresholds — qualifies for shadow evaluation before any optimizer change.Sample238 (n ≥ 60)Direction-8.0pp vs lifetimeShadow-test candidate
- Star Power profileWithin the variance band; no action needed.Sample238 (n ≥ 60)Direction-0.8pp vs lifetimeTracking
- Low Risk sectionWithin the published floor; section cap stays unchanged.Sample98 (n ≥ 40)Direction38.8% hit · floor 35%Tracking
- Medium Risk sectionBelow the published floor and past the n=40 gate — flagged for shadow evaluation.Sample103 (n ≥ 40)Direction16.5% hit · floor 22%Shadow-test candidate
- High Risk sectionBelow the published floor and past the n=40 gate — flagged for shadow evaluation.Sample104 (n ≥ 40)Direction10.6% hit · floor 12%Shadow-test candidate
- Longshot sectionBelow the published floor and past the n=40 gate — flagged for shadow evaluation.Sample107 (n ≥ 40)Direction3.7% hit · floor 6%Shadow-test candidate
- NBA-only publicSample below n=40; needs 22 more decisive slips before this bucket can move audit-policy state.Sample18 (n < 40)Direction27.8% hit · 5-13Too small to act on
- MLB-only publicTracked at the audit-policy level — no behavior change yet.Sample415 (n ≥ 40)Direction14.5% hit · 60-355Tracking
- Mixed (NBA + MLB) publicTracked at the audit-policy level — no behavior change yet.Sample99 (n ≥ 40)Direction9.1% hit · 9-90Tracking
- Audit signal · mixedSportDownrankFired 0 of 3 required days; still under threshold.Sample0 (n < 3)Directionfires trackedTracking
- Audit signal · sameGameNbaCapFired 0 of 3 required days; still under threshold.Sample0 (n < 3)Directionfires trackedTracking
- Audit signal · dnpGuardStrengthenFired 0 of 3 required days; still under threshold.Sample0 (n < 3)Directionfires trackedTracking
- Audit signal · longshotKeepCollapsedFired 0 of 1 required days; still under threshold.Sample0 (n < 1)Directionfires trackedTracking
Every signal here is tracked first, reviewed internally second, and only then considered for the optimizer. We never say the model "learned" from a single slate, and we do not consume an audit signal until the confirming-days threshold in the policy clears.
How the model improves over time.
Three things happen after every slate. The first two are automatic. The third is a slow loop — by design.
- Settlement
Once games finish, every saved slip is graded against final stats. Wins, losses, pushes, and pending are recorded by the nightly settler. We never edit outcomes by hand and we never use a slate's final results to alter that slate's pre-game suggestions.
- Daily projection audit
Per-prop accuracy is compared to the model's pre-game projection on every settled lean. Per-sport audits live at /results/nba and /results/mlb. The raw audit JSON is in the repo so it's auditable end-to-end.
- Signal review
Underperforming markets, tiers, or matchup shapes get flagged via the audit policy you can see in the banner above. A signal has to repeat across a configured window of confirming days before it can affect the optimizer. One slate never changes the model on its own.
What changed recently
- We found a grading blind spot. Hits + Runs + RBIs props used to come back unresolved because the MLB grader didn't know how to read them. They now grade off the box score the same way Hits and Total Bases do.
- We track public risk sections separately. Low / Medium / High / Longshot get their own results row. The hit rate you see on Results matches what you saw on Parlay Lab the day before, not a re-bucketing.
- We still need a sample before any model behavior moves. Every Learning Signals row says exactly how many more decisive slips it needs before its gate can fire. Confirmed signals stay operator-gated and aren't consumed automatically.
Learning roadmap
What happens next: audit signals are tracked first, reviewed internally second, and only then considered for the optimizer. Advanced ML ideas are on the roadmap, but not active until they beat the current rules in out-of-time tests. Full sequence — MODEL_LEARNING_ROADMAP_2026-05-28.md.
What we explicitly don't claim
- We do not call this a learning model. Until an audit signal is explicitly consumed by the optimizer, every flag in the banner above is informational only.
- Custom parlays from Build Your Own are not included in the public hit rate. They're exploratory.
- Bankroll Plan is an educational allocation planner — not financial advice.
- Single-game NBA cards on the Parlay Lab are labeled higher variance because every leg shares one matchup. That label is the framing, not a hedge.
Want projection-level accuracy?Per-prop hit rate on every settled lean is on the legacy audit pages.