Today’s games, picks and results.
Simulation Hub
Sports with activity on today's slateMoneyline / run line / total, plus a 10,000-run player-prop sim where the artifact exists.
Score-distribution forecasts for every matchweek fixture — win/draw/win, expected goals, over 2.5.
Projected score, win probability and a full player board from 10,000 simulated games.
Winner, method of victory and finishing round for every bout on the card.
The model's strongest reads today
What each simulation is most confident about today, ranked by the model's own probability — not by any gap against a sportsbook price. A watchlist, not a bet.
UFC · Fight winner · Welterweight · model reads DEC78.7%
UFC · Fight winner · Flyweight · model reads DEC77.6%
MLB · Game total · simulated median 7 runs74.4%
MLB · Game total · simulated median 7 runs73.2%
MLB · Moneyline · CHC @ MIA · simulated median 5–369.8%
UFC · Fight winner · Featherweight · model reads KO67.5%
MLB · Moneyline · MIN @ CWS · simulated median 5–365.7%
UFC · Fight winner · Bantamweight · model reads DEC65.1%
UFC · Fight winner · W Flyweight · model reads DEC64.9%
UFC · Fight winner · Middleweight · model reads KO64.0%ufc — The one model here that cleared its preregistered bar, on a 3,557-fight held-out sample. Since 2026-08-22 each settled bout is graded beside the market's own de-vigged probability — 16 so far, far too few to support any claim either way.
mlb — Its modelled markets were measured against the sportsbook and demoted to market context — the simulation is published, not claimed to beat a price.
NFL — not listed: the model does not currently tell these teams apart — its team-strength term was measured and found not to be statistically significant, so it produces near-identical reads for every game.
Paper-only and educational. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
Suggested cards by risk tier
Every lane is evaluated at four risk tiers every product day. A tier publishes a card only when enough legs qualify — otherwise it says no play, and that refusal is the product working.
UFC closed — only 0 priced games — a four-tier ladder needs at least 4 to build cards that never reuse one · NFL closed — the last price capture is 8.0 days old; only 0 priced games — a four-tier ladder needs at least 4 to build car…
Flagship products
Bank Builder · Moonshot · Results — paper-onlyThe disciplined paper ladder — structured cards only.
High-upside longshot paper cards — separate record, its own risk.
Receipts, settled + pending cards, and the official track record.
Recent results
Every card settles from official results only — wins and losses alike.
Featured simulations
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Simulation ReadyChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
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