World Cup · Moneyline (90′)Projection view
Mexico vs England
England · +140+0.0%
Model 40% · Market 40%🇲🇽v🏴
Mexico vs England
90-minute regulation only — a Draw is a real third outcome (no extra time / penalties).
Top pick · England or Draw -295Top prop · Brian Gutierrez -420
Model spotlight
The strongest reads for this match
Model-ranked, paper-only — pulled from the current odds and the model gates. Full detail in the tabs below.
Model game scriptLow confidenceKO risk High
0–0 draw lean
WinnerDrawTotalUnder 2.5BTTSBTTS No
Model score lean: 0–0 draw lean. This aligns with level at 90' is live (30% draw) + Under 2.5 goals + one side kept off the scoresheet (BTTS No).
Top team model pick · Double chanceEngland or Draw-295 · model 70% · market 70% · edge -0.2%Team & game props tab
Top player model pick · ShotsBrian GutierrezOver 0.5 0.5 · -420 · market 81% · limited-data
Best lower-variance card · Medium Risk2 legs · +2692 same-game legs, avg quality 66/1003.69x payout · paperSuggested parlays tab
Best higher-return card · Longshot2 legs · +7402 same-game legs, avg quality 58/1008.40x payout · paperSuggested parlays tab
- · 90-minute regulation only — Draw is a real outcome.
Model Picks
Every model pick for this match, at a glance
The posted team markets and player props, model-ranked from the current odds. Markets the books don't price are labelled Unavailable, never faked.
Expected game script · A coin-flip knockout tie (30% draw at 90') — both sides have incentive to stay compact and avoid the decisive mistake. High extra-time risk; 90-minute result bets carry that exposure. · favorite read: Solid
swipe table sideways →
| Market | Pick | Odds | Model Probability | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Moneyline | England | +140 | 40% | Watchlist | Coin-flip tie — extra-time risk on a 90' call |
| Full-Time Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -186 | 61% | Watchlist | Market leans cagey — lower-event knockout profile |
| Both Teams To Score | Both teams to score: No | -134 | 53% | Watchlist | Cautious tie — one side likely kept quiet |
| Double Chance | England or Draw | -295 | 70% | Lean | Lower-variance cover on England |
| Draw No Bet | England (draw no bet) | -159 | 56% | Watchlist | De-risks the draw — extra-time live here |
| 1st Half Moneyline | Unavailable | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| 1st Half Total | Unavailable | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| Total Corners | Unavailable | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| Team Corners | Unavailable | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| Cards | Unavailable | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
Player model picks
Top player props by market
Each market's strongest model reads, ranked by model probability — odds-backed only, capped to stay scannable.
Anytime Goalscorer
swipe →| Player | Team | Market | Pick / Line | Odds | Model Probability | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | England | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +130 | 43% | Low | |
| Ollie Watkins | England | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +188 | 35% | Low | low confidence |
| Ivan Toney | England | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +190 | 34% | Low | low confidence |
| Raul Jimenez | Mexico | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +230 | 30% | Low | low confidence |
| Julian Quinones | Mexico | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +250 | 29% | Low | low confidence |
| Armando Gonzalez Alba | Mexico | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +275 | 27% | Low | low confidence |
| Guillermo Martinez | Mexico | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +280 | 26% | Low | low confidence |
| Santiago Gimenez | Mexico | Anytime goalscorer | Anytime | +280 | 26% | Low | low confidence |
Assists
swipe →| Player | Team | Market | Pick / Line | Odds | Model Probability | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noni Madueke | England | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +350 | 22% | Low | low confidence |
| Marcus Rashford | England | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +360 | 22% | Low | low confidence |
| Reece James | England | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +400 | 20% | Low | low confidence |
| Anthony Gordon | England | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +420 | 19% | Low | low confidence |
| Roberto Alvarado | Mexico | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +420 | 19% | Low | low confidence |
| Jude Bellingham | England | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +500 | 17% | Low | low confidence |
| Bukayo Saka | England | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +500 | 17% | Low | low confidence |
| Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano | Mexico | Assists | Over 0.5 0.5 | +550 | 15% | Low | low confidence |
Shots on Target
swipe →| Player | Team | Market | Pick / Line | Odds | Model Probability | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | England | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | -270 | 73% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Raul Jimenez | Mexico | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | -155 | 61% | Low | strong read |
| Julian Quinones | Mexico | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | -135 | 57% | Low | strong read |
| Jude Bellingham | England | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | -112 | 53% | Low | |
| Noni Madueke | England | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | -110 | 52% | Low | |
| Bukayo Saka | England | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | -110 | 52% | Low | |
| Anthony Gordon | England | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | +100 | 50% | Low | |
| Marcus Rashford | England | Shots on target | Over 0.5 0.5 | +115 | 47% | Low |
Total Shots
swipe →| Player | Team | Market | Pick / Line | Odds | Model Probability | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | England | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -2000 | 95% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Julian Quinones | Mexico | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -1000 | 91% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Raul Jimenez | Mexico | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -1000 | 91% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Anthony Gordon | England | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -670 | 87% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Jude Bellingham | England | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -670 | 87% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Marcus Rashford | England | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -590 | 86% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Bukayo Saka | England | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -530 | 84% | Low | heavily juiced |
| Brian Gutierrez | Mexico | Shots | Over 0.5 0.5 | -420 | 81% | Low | heavily juiced |
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice.
Model-built cards · 6
Model-built cards for this match
Paper-only cards generated from current odds and model gates, by risk. Tap any leg for model + market detail.
Low Risk · 0
No low risk card passed the gates for this match.
Medium Risk · 2
Medium RiskWorld Cupsame game
+269
model 24% · 2 legs
🇲🇽Englandmoneyline_90+140▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Englandmoneyline_90+140▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 40%implied 40%+0.0pp edgesurvival 69risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
🇲🇽Under 2.5match_total_goals Under 2.5-186▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Under 2.5match_total_goals Under 2.5-186▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 61%implied 61%+0.0pp edgesurvival 73risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: 2 same-game legs, avg quality 66/100
Risk: combined model hit probability ≈ 24%
correlation: Same-game legs — shared-game correlation is expected and may be justified.
Medium RiskWorld Cupsame game
+221
model 28% · 2 legs
🇲🇽England or Drawdouble_chance-295▾00:00 UTCMedium-0.2pp
England or Drawdouble_chance-295▾
00:00 UTC
Medium-0.2pp
model 70%implied 70%-0.2pp edgesurvival 77risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
🇲🇽Englandmoneyline_90+140▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Englandmoneyline_90+140▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 40%implied 40%+0.0pp edgesurvival 69risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: 2 same-game legs, avg quality 66/100
Risk: combined model hit probability ≈ 28%
correlation: Same-game legs — shared-game correlation is expected and may be justified.
High Risk · 2
High RiskWorld Cupsame game
+319
model 21% · 2 legs
🇲🇽Both teams to score: Nobtts No-134▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Both teams to score: Nobtts No-134▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 53%implied 53%+0.0pp edgesurvival 70risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
🇲🇽Englandmoneyline_90+140▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Englandmoneyline_90+140▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 40%implied 40%+0.0pp edgesurvival 69risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: 2 same-game legs, avg quality 66/100
Risk: combined model hit probability ≈ 21%
correlation: Same-game legs — shared-game correlation is expected and may be justified.
High RiskWorld Cupsame game
+452
model 17% · 2 legs
Harry KaneAnytime Goalscorer Yes+130▾vs Mexico · 00:00 UTCLow+0.0pp
Harry KaneAnytime Goalscorer Yes+130▾
vs Mexico · 00:00 UTC
Low+0.0pp
model 43%implied 43%+0.0pp edgesurvival 36risk 0.55
Why: model 43% · attacking anytime goalscorer prop
Risk: limited-data / market-implied: lineups not yet posted, no independent per-player model
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
🇲🇽Englandmoneyline_90+140▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Englandmoneyline_90+140▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 40%implied 40%+0.0pp edgesurvival 69risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: 2 same-game legs, avg quality 58/100
Risk: limited-data / market-implied: lineups not yet posted, no independent per-player model
correlation: Same-game legs — shared-game correlation is expected and may be justified.
Includes limited-data / market-implied player props (lineups not yet posted). Settles from official sources.
Longshot · 2
LongshotWorld Cupsame game
+692
model 12% · 2 legs
Raul JimenezAnytime Goalscorer Yes+230▾vs England · 00:00 UTCLow+0.0pp
Raul JimenezAnytime Goalscorer Yes+230▾
vs England · 00:00 UTC
Low+0.0pp
model 30%implied 30%+0.0pp edgesurvival 36risk 0.55
Why: model 30% · attacking anytime goalscorer prop
Risk: limited-data / market-implied: lineups not yet posted, no independent per-player model
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
🇲🇽Englandmoneyline_90+140▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Englandmoneyline_90+140▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 40%implied 40%+0.0pp edgesurvival 69risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: 2 same-game legs, avg quality 58/100
Risk: limited-data / market-implied: lineups not yet posted, no independent per-player model
correlation: Same-game legs — shared-game correlation is expected and may be justified.
Includes limited-data / market-implied player props (lineups not yet posted). Settles from official sources.
LongshotWorld Cupsame game
+740
model 11% · 2 legs
Julian QuinonesAnytime Goalscorer Yes+250▾vs England · 00:00 UTCLow+0.0pp
Julian QuinonesAnytime Goalscorer Yes+250▾
vs England · 00:00 UTC
Low+0.0pp
model 29%implied 29%+0.0pp edgesurvival 36risk 0.55
Why: model 29% · attacking anytime goalscorer prop
Risk: limited-data / market-implied: lineups not yet posted, no independent per-player model
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
🇲🇽Englandmoneyline_90+140▾00:00 UTCMedium+0.0pp
Englandmoneyline_90+140▾
00:00 UTC
Medium+0.0pp
model 40%implied 40%+0.0pp edgesurvival 69risk 0.04
Why: confirmed role / participation
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: 2 same-game legs, avg quality 58/100
Risk: limited-data / market-implied: lineups not yet posted, no independent per-player model
correlation: Same-game legs — shared-game correlation is expected and may be justified.
Includes limited-data / market-implied player props (lineups not yet posted). Settles from official sources.
Player prop parlays · 3
Player prop parlays for this match
Safe / Balanced / Aggressive — built from this game's posted player props, distinct players per slip, combined odds computed from the real prices. Each card carries a confidence + volatility read and an honest correlation note. Tap any leg for model + market detail.
Safe · 1Lowest-variance — highest-probability legs, shortest combined price.
confidenceLeanvolatilityMediumcorrelationpositive · 1.00
The steadiest, highest-probability attacking reads across 3 distinct players. This is a coin-flip tie likely to stay tight, so these are bets on the players most likely to find the game's limited high-value moments — not on a goal flood. Because the legs are different players, the slip rides the overall game flow rather than a single outcome — weakly correlated, never sold as independent.
correlation read · Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Low RiskWorld Cup
+292
model 25% · 3 legs
Harry KaneShots on target 0.5-270▾Low+0.0pp
Harry KaneShots on target 0.5-270▾
Low+0.0pp
model 73%implied 73%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Raul JimenezShots on target 0.5-155▾Low+0.0pp
Raul JimenezShots on target 0.5-155▾
Low+0.0pp
model 61%implied 61%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Julian QuinonesShots on target 0.5-135▾Low+0.0pp
Julian QuinonesShots on target 0.5-135▾
Low+0.0pp
model 57%implied 57%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: The 3 highest model-probability player props for this match (Knockout · even tie (extra-time live)).
Risk: Distinct players, but each is a single-player event — one quiet performance breaks the slip.
correlation: Same-match legs on different players — weakly correlated via game flow (not a same-outcome stack, not fully independent). One quiet performance can break the slip on its own.
Includes limited-data / market-implied player props (lineups not yet posted). Settles from official sources.
Balanced · 1Moderate payout and survival — a longer combined price for more upside.
confidenceLeanvolatilityHighcorrelationpositive · 1.00
Two model favorites plus a longer mid-priced swing across 3 distinct players. This is a coin-flip tie likely to stay tight, so these are bets on the players most likely to find the game's limited high-value moments — not on a goal flood. Because the legs are different players, the slip rides the overall game flow rather than a single outcome — weakly correlated, never sold as independent.
correlation read · Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Medium RiskWorld Cup
+351
model 22% · 3 legs
Harry KaneShots on target 0.5-270▾Low+0.0pp
Harry KaneShots on target 0.5-270▾
Low+0.0pp
model 73%implied 73%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Raul JimenezShots on target 0.5-155▾Low+0.0pp
Raul JimenezShots on target 0.5-155▾
Low+0.0pp
model 61%implied 61%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Anthony GordonShots on target 0.5+100▾Low+0.0pp
Anthony GordonShots on target 0.5+100▾
Low+0.0pp
model 50%implied 50%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: Two model favorites plus one mid-priced leg for a longer return (Knockout · even tie (extra-time live)).
Risk: The mid-priced leg is the swing — a longer-odds prop misses more often than the favorites.
correlation: Same-match legs on different players — weakly correlated via game flow (not a same-outcome stack, not fully independent). One quiet performance can break the slip on its own.
Includes limited-data / market-implied player props (lineups not yet posted). Settles from official sources.
Aggressive · 1Higher-variance — built for payout over hit rate; the legs need the bolder script.
confidenceSpeculativevolatilityHighcorrelationpositive · 1.00
Two steady anchors plus one plus-money upside leg across 3 distinct players. This is a coin-flip tie likely to stay tight, so these are bets on the players most likely to find the game's limited high-value moments — not on a goal flood. Because the legs are different players, the slip rides the overall game flow rather than a single outcome — weakly correlated, never sold as independent.
correlation read · Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
High RiskWorld Cup
+549
model 15% · 3 legs
Harry KaneShots on target 0.5-270▾Low+0.0pp
Harry KaneShots on target 0.5-270▾
Low+0.0pp
model 73%implied 73%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Raul JimenezShots on target 0.5-155▾Low+0.0pp
Raul JimenezShots on target 0.5-155▾
Low+0.0pp
model 61%implied 61%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Ollie WatkinsAnytime goalscorer+188▾Low+0.0pp
Ollie WatkinsAnytime goalscorer+188▾
Low+0.0pp
model 35%implied 35%+0.0pp edgerisk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: Two steady shots-on-target anchors plus one plus-money anytime-scorer leg for upside (Knockout · even tie (extra-time live)).
Risk: High variance — the anytime-scorer upside leg misses more often than it hits; built for payout, not hit rate.
correlation: Same-match legs on different players — weakly correlated via game flow (not a same-outcome stack, not fully independent). One quiet performance can break the slip on its own.
Includes limited-data / market-implied player props (lineups not yet posted). Settles from official sources.
Team prop parlays · 3
Team prop parlays for this match
Safe / Balanced / Aggressive same-game combos from this fixture's team markets, built around the expected game script. These legs are correlated by nature — every card surfaces its correlation direction + score and never presents them as independent.
Safe · 1Lowest-variance — highest-probability legs, shortest combined price.
confidenceSolidvolatilityMediumcorrelationpositive · 1.00
A coin-flip knockout tie (30% draw at 90') — both sides have incentive to stay compact and avoid the decisive mistake. High extra-time risk; 90-minute result bets carry that exposure. A favorite double chance plus Under 2.5 and BTTS No all describe that same cautious, lead-protecting script, so the legs reinforce one story rather than betting on separate things.
correlation read · Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Low RiskWorld Cupsame game
+260
model 53% · 3 legs
🏴England or DrawDouble chance-295▾Low
England or DrawDouble chance-295▾
Low
model 70%implied 70%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Under 2.5Total goals-186▾Low
Under 2.5Total goals-186▾
Low
model 61%implied 61%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
BTTS NoBoth teams to score-134▾Low
BTTS NoBoth teams to score-134▾
Low
model 53%implied 53%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: Lowest-variance lean (Knockout · even tie (extra-time live)): the favorite avoids defeat in a cautious, low-event tie.
Risk: A single early goal can flip Under 2.5 and BTTS No together — same-game legs fail as a correlated block.
correlation: Same-game stack — these team markets describe ONE match, so they are correlated, not independent. Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Balanced · 1Moderate payout and survival — a longer combined price for more upside.
confidenceSolidvolatilityMediumcorrelationpositive · 1.00
A coin-flip knockout tie (30% draw at 90') — both sides have incentive to stay compact and avoid the decisive mistake. High extra-time risk; 90-minute result bets carry that exposure. Backing the favorite to win and pairing it with the Under keeps the totals leg pointed the same way as the expected game flow — a moderate combo that still moves as one correlated bet.
correlation read · Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Medium RiskWorld Cupsame game
+269
model 40% · 2 legs
🏴EnglandMoneyline (90′)+140▾Low
EnglandMoneyline (90′)+140▾
Low
model 40%implied 40%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Under 2.5Total goals-186▾Low
Under 2.5Total goals-186▾
Low
model 61%implied 61%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: Balanced lean (Knockout · even tie (extra-time live)): the favorite to win paired with the totals side that fits the expected script.
Risk: The result and totals legs are correlated — if the favorite is held or the game flips open against the lean, both can miss together.
correlation: Same-game stack — these team markets describe ONE match, so they are correlated, not independent. Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Aggressive · 1Higher-variance — built for payout over hit rate; the legs need the bolder script.
confidenceSolidvolatilityExtremecorrelationpositive · 1.00
A coin-flip knockout tie (30% draw at 90') — both sides have incentive to stay compact and avoid the decisive mistake. High extra-time risk; 90-minute result bets carry that exposure. This slip bets AGAINST that caution — the favorite to win plus Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes only land in an open, end-to-end game. The legs are positively correlated (all need goals), which is exactly why it's the higher-variance read.
correlation read · Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
High RiskWorld Cupsame game
+1030
model 39% · 3 legs
🏴EnglandMoneyline (90′)+140▾Low
EnglandMoneyline (90′)+140▾
Low
model 40%implied 40%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Over 2.5Total goals+140▾Low
Over 2.5Total goals+140▾
Low
model 39%implied 39%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
BTTS YesBoth teams to score-104▾Low
BTTS YesBoth teams to score-104▾
Low
model 47%implied 47%risk 0.00
Settles on the 90-minute regulation result (official). Limited-data: market-implied.
Why: Aggressive lean (Knockout · even tie (extra-time live)): the favorite wins an open game with goals at both ends.
Risk: A cagey, lead-protecting knockout tie (the more likely script) sinks the Over and BTTS Yes together.
correlation: Same-game stack — these team markets describe ONE match, so they are correlated, not independent. Same-game legs that move TOGETHER — if the game flows as expected they tend to hit (or miss) as a bloc. Correlated, not independent: the combined price shown is a MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying the individual prices; a real sportsbook prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER, so treat the payout as optimistic, not a book quote.
Model player props · 8
Model picks by market
Up to 3 model-qualified picks per market — recommended side only, never the full both-sides inventory.
Markets posted for this fixture: Anytime goalscorer · Shots on target · Assists · Shots. Limited-data — market-implied prices, no independent model edge yet. Additional player markets (assists, shots, cards, …) appear here automatically when the books post odds — never shown without real prices.
Anytime goalscorer
Harry KaneAnytime · market 43% · betmgm
+130
Ollie WatkinsAnytime · market 35% · williamhill_us
+188
Ivan ToneyAnytime · market 34% · williamhill_us
+190Assists
Noni MaduekeOver 0.5 0.5 · market 22% · fanduel
+350
Marcus RashfordOver 0.5 0.5 · market 22% · fanduel
+360
Reece JamesOver 0.5 0.5 · market 20% · fanduel
+400Shots
Brian GutierrezOver 0.5 0.5 · market 81% · betrivers
-420GR
Gilberto Rafael Mora ZambranoOver 0.5 0.5 · market 80% · betrivers
-400Noni MaduekeOver 0.5 0.5 · market 79% · betrivers
-385Shots on target
Harry KaneOver 0.5 0.5 · market 73% · fanduel
-270
Raul JimenezOver 0.5 0.5 · market 61% · betrivers
-155
Julian QuinonesOver 0.5 0.5 · market 57% · fanduel
-135View full prop inventory · 48 ▾
Top 12 model-ranked picks across all markets — recommended side only. Tap a row for the evidence; use the market tabs for the full board.
Harry Kane-2000Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 95% · mkt 95%not posted
Harry Kane-2000
Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 95% · mkt 95%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Julian Quinones-1000Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 91% · mkt 91%not posted
Julian Quinones-1000
Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 91% · mkt 91%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Raul Jimenez-1000Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 91% · mkt 91%not posted
Raul Jimenez-1000
Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 91% · mkt 91%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Anthony Gordon-670Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 87% · mkt 87%not posted
Anthony Gordon-670
Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 87% · mkt 87%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Jude Bellingham-670Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 87% · mkt 87%not posted
Jude Bellingham-670
Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 87% · mkt 87%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Marcus Rashford-590Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 86% · mkt 86%not posted
Marcus Rashford-590
Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 86% · mkt 86%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Bukayo Saka-530Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 84% · mkt 84%not posted
Bukayo Saka-530
Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 84% · mkt 84%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Brian Gutierrez-420Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 81% · mkt 81%not posted
Brian Gutierrez-420
Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 81% · mkt 81%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
GRGilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano-400Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 80% · mkt 80%not posted
Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano-400
Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 80% · mkt 80%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Noni Madueke-385Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 79% · mkt 79%not posted
Noni Madueke-385
Over 0.5 · England · betriversmdl 79% · mkt 79%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Roberto Alvarado-275Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 73% · mkt 73%not posted
Roberto Alvarado-275
Over 0.5 · Mexico · betriversmdl 73% · mkt 73%
Shots · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Harry Kane-270Over 0.5 · England · fanduelmdl 73% · mkt 73%not posted
Harry Kane-270
Over 0.5 · England · fanduelmdl 73% · mkt 73%
Shots on target · line 0.5 · edge +0.0%Recent-game log unavailable for this market — only the model/market read above is shown. Stats are never invented.· Odds-backed market-implied (no independent per-player model yet).
Projections · 5
Team & game projections
Model probability vs the market price, with edge, for this fixture.
World Cup · Total goalsCard eligible
Mexico vs England
Under 2.5 · -186+0.0%
Model 61% · Market 61%World Cup · Double chanceProjection view
Mexico vs England
England or Draw · -295-0.2%
Model 70% · Market 70%World Cup · bttsProjection view
Mexico vs England
Both teams to score: No · -134+0.0%
Model 53% · Market 53%World Cup · draw_no_betCard eligible
Mexico vs England
England (draw no bet) · -159+0.0%
Model 56% · Market 56%Markets
What's available for this game
We only show markets a real book is pricing. Pending/unavailable markets are labeled, never faked.
Moneyline / double chance
LiveTotal goals
LiveTotal cornersCorner totals depend on book support for this fixture.
LivePlayer propsAnytime goalscorer, Shots on target, Assists, Shots
LivePaper-only · educational · not betting advice