Moonshot suggestion · 3 legs, High or Longshot band, highest joint probability
No suggestion: a mixed card needs legs from two sports; today only Ligue 1 has a leg with a published probability.
Moonshot LaneNo qualifying card
Moonshot Lane
No Moonshot card is placed today: MLB is out of season — the 2026 season is over — StatsAPI lists no game left to play on or after 2026-10-30. The ladder waits for the next slate.
Where Moonshot stands
- Published today
- 0no card today
- Current era record
- 7–48Aug 15 – Oct 29, 2026 · settled receipts
- Legacy open cards
- 0legacy lane fully graded
- Legacy stranded stake
- $0.00legacy lane · paper
Moonshot · current era record 7–48 · Sat, Aug 15 to Thu, Oct 29
History · June single-card lane 0–7 · Jun 23 – Jul 6, 2026
The June 2026 Moonshot was a different product — 7 multi-leg cards settled in the June 2026 ledger. It is kept here as history and is never added to the current record above.
Technical detailsHow the stored Moonshot records reconcile, and what is still open
What the stored records say, side by side
- · The old lane record still says "active" but has not been updated in 74 days (since 2026-08-17); this page follows the daily receipts.
- · two eras, not one record: the current receipts record counts 55 settled receipt-era lanes since 2026-08-15 (the current record, graded nightly from official results); the June 2026 ledger counts 7 settled June 2026 legacy cards (2026-06-23 … 2026-07-06) — a different population, kept as legacy and never summed with the current era
Still open: The daily ladder is live on the paper portfolio: its cards are graded nightly from the official box score, and each lane's rung comes from those receipts. Since the 2026-09-10 reconciliation its settled results move the core paper bankroll: a lost run costs the lane its $25 seed, a won step rolls without moving the bankroll, and a completed run banks its final value minus the seed. Its record is kept on its own line. What is still open is multi-lane exposure accounting in the protected Mr. Dub ledger, which models a single active Moonshot card. Whether to build it is a product decision.
🚀 The 3-step ladder
$25 → $1,000 in 3 days
Day 14×
$25 → $100
the whole $100 rides into Day 2
2 legs · team markets · no props
Day 2 · unlocks on a win4×
$100 → $400
the whole $400 rides into Day 3
2 legs · team markets · no props
Day 3 · unlocks on a win2.5×
$400 → $1,000
completes the run
2 legs · team markets · no props
Same rule as Bank Builder: every leg must win, the whole balance rides into the next day, and one wrong leg ends the run back at the $25 seed — nothing banks along the way. A day with no qualified card is a no-play. Settles from official results.
No card is placed today. The ladder deals again tomorrow morning from wherever each lane stands.
Sports that can join a priced card for Moonshot · evaluated Fri, Oct 30
0 eligible legs · which sports qualify for priced cards
- MLBno events
- NFLnot eligible for priced cards
- UFCnot eligible for priced cards
- Premier Leaguenot eligible for priced cards
- NBAnot eligible for priced cards
A sport enters only when its model has earned product eligibility for priced cards. The selector never requires a sport to appear, and a day with no qualifying card publishes no card. The Parlay Center's suggested-card lanes use their own rule (real posted prices, an official settlement path and enough priced games), shown on the Parlay Center. Model suggestions follow a separate rule, an official forecast frozen before the game, and carry no price.
Model suggestions · 2026-10-30
Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet. Each leg is the Official Forecast’s own pick, frozen before its game. Its accuracy over a large forward sample is not yet established. Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.
No Moonshot model suggestion today: a mixed card needs legs from two sports; today only Ligue 1 has a leg with a published probability. All model suggestions on the Parlay Center →
Why, card by card
NBA game winners
NBA-only cards from the official sides, tiered by the published Elo-derived game-winner estimate. One leg per game.
Moonshot · Longshot band, up to 5 games, highest joint
No card: an NBA game-winner card needs 3 games with a published Elo-derived estimate; none has one.
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
Every model suggestion today
Every suggestion is recorded and graded forward in its own record, separate from the priced paper record. How suggestions are chosen →
Technical detailsForecast sources and the published data file
Today’s Moonshot · 2026-10-30
No published Moonshot card for 2026-10-30
No Moonshot card is placed today: MLB is out of season — the 2026 season is over — StatsAPI lists no game left to play on or after 2026-10-30. The ladder waits for the next slate.
Settled record
Moonshot Lane A stands at run 25, step 2.
- LostLane A · run 1, step 1 · Mon, Aug 17, 2026
1 of 3 legs landed, so the card lost and ended that run — the next one starts at step 1.
Pick Needed Actual Result Gabriel Moreno over 1.5 batter total bases 1 Lost Shane McClanahan under 4.5 pitcher strikeouts 3 Won Luis Campusano over 1.5 batter hits runs rbis 0 Lost - LostLane B · run 1, step 1 · Mon, Aug 17, 2026
2 of 3 legs landed, so the card lost and ended that run — the next one starts at step 1.
Pick Needed Actual Result Alex Bregman over 1.5 batter hits runs rbis 3 Won Brandon Lowe over 1.5 batter hits runs rbis 2 Won Jakob Marsee over 0.5 batter hits runs rbis 0 Lost
Graded from the official MLB Stats API box score, joined by game ID. Paper only — no money moved.
History
🌙 Moonshot Lane · lane trackerArchived
Legacy lane · last updated Mon, Aug 17 · the current Moonshot is the ladder above
$0.00
Exposure
Fast ladder · $25 → $1,000
Style
A separate, higher-volatility product — not part of the core Dual Bank Builder, and its record never blends into the core. Paper-only.
High RiskMLBLost ✗
Step 1 · cross-slate restart
moonshot-2026-08-17-mlb-a
+742
$25.00projected
GM
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red SoxGabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Total Bases · Total Bases-123Card decidedSM
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay RaysShane McClanahan Under 4.5 Strikeouts · Strikeouts+101Card decidedLC
San Diego Padres @ New York MetsLuis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs · Hits + Runs + RBIs+131Card decidedNext
Awaiting a qualified higher-volatility card. Nothing is active; current exposure is $0.00.
Daily tracker shows known Moonshot runs only — earlier history before June 19 is not backfilled (no fabricated cards). Settlement-supported by official sources.