Who our model thinks is most likely to score
The same anytime-touchdown probability each game's player board publishes: the player's share of his team's carries and targets, his own touchdown rate per carry and per target, and the team's recent touchdown rate, assuming he plays. Each name settles on its own.
166 model candidates · no current comparable touchdown price is available
Generated Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Today's watchlist
Ranked by the model's own touchdown probability. A player designated out is not a scorer candidate and does not appear.
| Player | Game | Chance to score | Playing time |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | MIN @ DET | 78.9% | Expected to play |
 James Cook III RB · BUF | BAL @ BUF | 76.6% | Expected to play |
 Javonte Williams RB · DAL | ARI @ DAL | 73.4% | Expected to play |
 Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | IND @ JAX | 71.0% | Expected to play |
 Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | KC @ DEN | 69.1% | Expected to play |
 D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | CHI @ SEA | 66.9% | Expected to play |
 Derrick Henry RB · BAL | BAL @ BUF | 62.1% | Expected to play |
 Kyren Williams RB · LAR | LAC @ LAR | 61.5% | Expected to play |
 Josh Allen QB · BUF | BAL @ BUF | 59.0% | Expected to play |
 Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | ATL @ TB | 57.1% | Expected to play |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | CHI @ SEA | 56.0% | Expected to play |
 Tony Pollard RB · TEN | TEN @ CIN | 53.4% | Expected to play |
166 players cleared the minimum probability across the slate; the 12 above are the highest.
How the number is built
Each game’s projected points become a distribution over how many touchdowns that team scores. That total is then shared across the roster using each player’s measured share of his club’s scoring, taken from a walk-forward estimate that only ever folds in games played before this one. The two combine into one probability per player: the chance he scores at least once.
The list never sums to 100%. Defences, special teams and every player not named here hold the rest, and a touchdown probability is conditional on playing — a player who does not take the field settles void rather than losing.
- calibrated TD probability
- current active/role evidence
- current comparable TD price
- settlement coverage
- compatibility check
Model touchdown probabilities. Educational.