Who our model thinks is most likely to score
A touchdown probability for every skill player on the slate, built from how a team is projected to score and how that scoring has historically been shared across its roster. Each name settles on its own.
178 model candidates · no touchdown market is captured for these games
Generated Sep 9, 6:57 PM ET
Today's watchlist
Ranked by the model's own touchdown probability. A player designated out is not a scorer candidate and does not appear.
| Player | Game | Chance to score | Playing time |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | WSH @ PHI | 56.4% | Expected to play |
 Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | NO @ DET | 52.8% | Expected to play |
 Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | ARI @ LAC | 47.8% | Expected to play |
 Derrick Henry RB · BAL | BAL @ IND | 46.2% | Expected to play |
 Kyren Williams RB · LAR | SF @ LAR | 45.4% | Expected to play |
 Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | SF @ LAR | 45.3% | Expected to play |
 Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | CLE @ JAX | 43.1% | Expected to play |
 Cam Skattebo RB · NYG | DAL @ NYG | 42.6% | Expected to play |
 Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET | NO @ DET | 42.1% | Expected to play |
 Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | MIA @ LV | 40.0% | Questionable |
 Puka Nacua WR · LAR | SF @ LAR | 39.4% | Expected to play |
 Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | ATL @ PIT | 39.3% | Expected to play |
178 players cleared the minimum probability across the slate; the 12 above are the highest.
How the number is built
Each game’s projected points become a distribution over how many touchdowns that team scores. That total is then shared across the roster using each player’s measured share of his club’s scoring, taken from a walk-forward estimate that only ever folds in games played before this one. The two combine into one probability per player: the chance he scores at least once.
The list never sums to 100%. Defences, special teams and every player not named here hold the rest, and a touchdown probability is conditional on playing — a player who does not take the field settles void rather than losing.
- calibrated TD probability
- current active/role evidence
- current comparable TD price
- settlement coverage
- compatibility check
Model touchdown probabilities. Educational.