The five most likely home runs, every game day

Each pick carries its own probability and settles on its own — this is a list, not a parlay. A 30% pick that does not land is the model behaving as described.

Season complete

2026 season complete — Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series 4–1

Final game, Oct 28: MIL 4, TB 1. No MLB games are left to play. MLB returns in 2027.

Graded record, May 16 – Oct 28: player-prop leans went 25,107–24,804 (50.3% hit rate) over 132 slates.

See the full MLB record →

There is no home-run board in the off-season. MLB returns in 2027. The track record of the 2026 boards is below.

How the number is built

A batter’s home runs per plate appearance, regressed toward the league rate, multiplied by how many home runs the opposing starter allows per batter faced, also regressed. That per-trip rate is compounded over the plate appearances a hitter in his lineup slot is expected to get.

The regression is the load-bearing part. Three home runs in forty trips is 7.5% and almost entirely noise; without a prior pulling it back toward the league rate, a hot fortnight would win a board whose only job is ranking.

Source: MLB Stats API season totals and confirmed probable starters. No sportsbook home-run price is used, so these are not compared to a market number and no edge is claimed.

Track record

35 of 237 picks homered across 66 slates

2026-10-280/0 homered · +5 status unknown
2026-10-270/0 homered · +5 status unknown
2026-10-260/0 homered · +5 status unknown
2026-10-240/0 homered · +5 status unknown
2026-10-230/0 homered · +5 status unknown
2026-10-191/4 homered
2026-10-180/4 homered
2026-10-170/4 homered
2026-10-160/0 homered
2026-10-150/4 homered
2026-10-140/4 homered
2026-10-130/4 homered
2026-10-120/4 homered
2026-10-110/5 homered

Publication status unknown (legacy): 39 more graded picks (4 homered) are not counted above. No record shows their probability was published before first pitch, so they stay graded on the record but never in a public figure.

Full settled record →