System status

What is working, and what is not

Every stage below reports for itself. The overall state is the worst of them — we do not average a failure away behind four successes.

ReadyUp to date and working.

every stage reported ready

Newest fully settled slate: 2026-09-05

Pipeline stages

Prediction history
Ready
complete through 2026-09-05 (40679 rows, 0-day lag)
Up to date and working.
Calibration
Ready
platt-1, fitted through 2026-06-24, held out on 6,695 rows
Up to date and working.
Market registry
Ready
as of 2026-07-27, 21,633 decisive rows
Up to date and working.
Daily research brief
Ready
newest settled date 2026-09-05
Up to date and working.
Latest settlement
Ready
settled through 2026-09-05; 1 earlier date permanently withheld by the integrity gate (2026-07-28) and excluded from every rate
Up to date and working.

2026-07-28
Withheld
This slate's board was built before a data-integrity guard was in place, and two halves of a doubleheader could not be told apart. Rather than grade predictions against the wrong game, we left the date unsettled. It has no win/loss record and is excluded from every rate on this site.
This date has no win/loss record and is excluded from every rate on this site.

Ready: Up to date and working.
Due: Expected soon; not late yet.
Running late: Later than usual, still inside the normal window. Not a failure.
Failed: This step did not complete.
Withheld: Deliberately withheld because the data failed an integrity check.
Out of date: Ran, but the data behind it is older than it should be.
Unavailable: We could not read this. Treat it as unknown, not as fine.