Model audit · deep dive
Every cut of the settled record
Sourced from the model audit, rebuilt after every settlement. Pushes excluded from the denominator; pending and insufficient-data rows never counted. Educational only — not betting advice.
NBA settled audit
Per-game stdev9.9pp
Worst game33.8%
Best game67.2%
Games audited17
Per-market
| Market | Record | Hit | Avg |err| | Stdev err | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 483–587 on 1070 | 45.1% | 1.68 | 1.31 | +0.50 |
| PTS | 640–713 on 1353 | 47.3% | 5.51 | 4.08 | +1.25 |
| REB | 661–551 on 1212 | 54.5% | 2.14 | 1.78 | +0.19 |
Per-side × market
| Market | Side | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST | Over | 278–418 on 696 | 39.9% |
| AST | Under | 205–169 on 374 | 54.8% |
| PTS | Over | 417–499 on 916 | 45.5% |
| PTS | Under | 223–214 on 437 | 51.0% |
| REB | Over | 426–353 on 779 | 54.7% |
| REB | Under | 235–198 on 433 | 54.3% |
Confidence tier
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| High | 1146–1202 on 2348 | 48.8% |
| Low | 258–262 on 520 | 49.6% |
| Medium | 222–209 on 431 | 51.5% |
| Insufficient data | 158–178 on 336 | 47.0% |
Edge band (fixed cutoffs)
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5pp | 486–495 on 981 | 49.5% |
| 5–10pp | 505–420 on 925 | 54.6% |
| 10–15pp | 308–335 on 643 | 47.9% |
| 15–25pp | 293–400 on 693 | 42.3% |
| 25pp+ | 192–201 on 393 | 48.9% |
Edge quartile (data-derived)
| Quartile | |Edge| range | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 0.01–4.54pp | 449–459 on 908 | 49.4% |
| Q2 | 4.57–9.45pp | 491–418 on 909 | 54.0% |
| Q3 | 9.45–17.60pp | 433–476 on 909 | 47.6% |
| Q4 | 17.60–49.30pp | 411–498 on 909 | 45.2% |
Per-date timeline
| Date | Record | Hit | Phase | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 80–65 on 145 | 55.2% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-05-17 | 41–20 on 61 | 67.2% | playoff | Sun |
| 2026-05-18 | 108–58 on 166 | 65.1% | playoff | Mon |
| 2026-05-19 | 50–98 on 148 | 33.8% | playoff | Tue |
| 2026-05-20 | 50–30 on 80 | 62.5% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-05-21 | 35–36 on 71 | 49.3% | playoff | Thu |
| 2026-05-22 | 49–34 on 83 | 59.0% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-05-23 | 27–45 on 72 | 37.5% | playoff | Sat |
| 2026-05-25 | 160–164 on 324 | 49.4% | playoff | Mon |
| 2026-05-26 | 146–164 on 310 | 47.1% | playoff | Tue |
| 2026-05-28 | 167–102 on 269 | 62.1% | playoff | Thu |
| 2026-05-30 | 149–121 on 270 | 55.2% | playoff | Sat |
| 2026-06-03 | 105–150 on 255 | 41.2% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-06-05 | 176–169 on 345 | 51.0% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-06-10 | 248–328 on 576 | 43.1% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-06-13 | 193–267 on 460 | 42.0% | playoff | Sat |
Per-date hit rate sparkline
NBA trend · 16 settled slates49.1%
2026-05-15 → 2026-06-13 · 1784–1851 on 3635 decisive
MLB settled audit
Per-game stdev11.5pp
Worst game20.0%
Best game89.5%
Games audited1354
Per-market
| Market | Record | Hit | Avg |err| | Stdev err | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | 10987–9307 on 20294 | 54.1% | 0.71 | 0.54 | +0.01 |
| Hits + Runs + RBIs | 9207–9273 on 18480 | 49.8% | 1.52 | 1.22 | +0.02 |
| Total Bases | 3725–4945 on 8670 | 43.0% | 1.48 | 1.23 | +0.06 |
| Strikeouts | 1188–1279 on 2467 | 48.2% | 1.91 | 1.38 | -0.00 |
Per-side × market
| Market | Side | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | Over | 8016–5903 on 13919 | 57.6% |
| Hits | Under | 2971–3404 on 6375 | 46.6% |
| Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over | 7770–8054 on 15824 | 49.1% |
| Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under | 1437–1219 on 2656 | 54.1% |
| Total Bases | Over | 3162–4557 on 7719 | 41.0% |
| Total Bases | Under | 563–388 on 951 | 59.2% |
| Strikeouts | Over | 567–665 on 1232 | 46.0% |
| Strikeouts | Under | 621–614 on 1235 | 50.3% |
Confidence tier
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| High | 11221–11441 on 22662 | 49.5% |
| Low | 10283–9853 on 20136 | 51.1% |
| Medium | 3603–3510 on 7113 | 50.7% |
Edge band (fixed cutoffs)
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5pp | 13070–12430 on 25500 | 51.3% |
| 5–10pp | 6104–5849 on 11953 | 51.1% |
| 10–15pp | 3532–3798 on 7330 | 48.2% |
| 15–25pp | 2156–2488 on 4644 | 46.4% |
| 25pp+ | 245–239 on 484 | 50.6% |
Edge quartile (data-derived)
| Quartile | |Edge| range | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 0.00–2.00pp | 6446–6031 on 12477 | 51.7% |
| Q2 | 2.00–4.80pp | 6357–6121 on 12478 | 50.9% |
| Q3 | 4.80–9.98pp | 6360–6118 on 12478 | 51.0% |
| Q4 | 9.98–54.14pp | 5944–6534 on 12478 | 47.6% |
Per-date timeline
| Date | Record | Hit | Phase | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 144–128 on 272 | 52.9% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-05-18 | 149–161 on 310 | 48.1% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-05-21 | 80–82 on 162 | 49.4% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-05-22 | 127–101 on 228 | 55.7% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-05-23 | 139–146 on 285 | 48.8% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-05-25 | 146–147 on 293 | 49.8% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-05-27 | 282–302 on 584 | 48.3% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-05-28 | 92–122 on 214 | 43.0% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-05-29 | 292–245 on 537 | 54.4% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-05-30 | 294–273 on 567 | 51.9% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-06-01 | 152–154 on 306 | 49.7% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-06-02 | 305–274 on 579 | 52.7% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-06-03 | 265–304 on 569 | 46.6% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-06-04 | 186–201 on 387 | 48.1% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-06-05 | 296–295 on 591 | 50.1% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-06-06 | 251–297 on 548 | 45.8% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-06-07 | 281–312 on 593 | 47.4% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-06-08 | 146–158 on 304 | 48.0% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-06-09 | 338–250 on 588 | 57.5% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-06-10 | 320–263 on 583 | 54.9% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-06-11 | 148–166 on 314 | 47.1% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-06-12 | 289–314 on 603 | 47.9% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-06-13 | 287–282 on 569 | 50.4% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-06-14 | 294–252 on 546 | 53.8% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-06-15 | 183–218 on 401 | 45.6% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-06-16 | 262–283 on 545 | 48.1% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-06-17 | 295–256 on 551 | 53.5% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-06-18 | 142–164 on 306 | 46.4% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-06-19 | 304–231 on 535 | 56.8% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-06-20 | 287–245 on 532 | 53.9% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-06-21 | 254–238 on 492 | 51.6% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-06-22 | 214–257 on 471 | 45.4% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-06-24 | 271–302 on 573 | 47.3% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-07-01 | 226–211 on 437 | 51.7% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-07-02 | 214–152 on 366 | 58.5% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-07-03 | 266–268 on 534 | 49.8% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-07-04 | 142–150 on 292 | 48.6% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-07-06 | 164–161 on 325 | 50.5% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-07-07 | 59–62 on 121 | 48.8% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-07-08 | 287–299 on 586 | 49.0% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-07-09 | 172–147 on 319 | 53.9% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-07-10 | 121–91 on 212 | 57.1% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-07-11 | 238–291 on 529 | 45.0% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-07-21 | 23–19 on 42 | 54.8% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-07-22 | 257–296 on 553 | 46.5% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-07-23 | 95–98 on 193 | 49.2% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-07-24 | 291–307 on 598 | 48.7% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-07-25 | 272–281 on 553 | 49.2% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-07-26 | 297–297 on 594 | 50.0% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-07-27 | 213–228 on 441 | 48.3% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-07-30 | 162–206 on 368 | 44.0% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-07-31 | 146–129 on 275 | 53.1% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-08-03 | 71–102 on 173 | 41.0% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-08-04 | 292–274 on 566 | 51.6% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-08-05 | 250–351 on 601 | 41.6% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-08-06 | 227–188 on 415 | 54.7% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-08-07 | 268–299 on 567 | 47.3% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-08-08 | 297–271 on 568 | 52.3% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-08-09 | 283–291 on 574 | 49.3% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-08-10 | 195–194 on 389 | 50.1% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-08-11 | 285–312 on 597 | 47.7% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-08-12 | 287–305 on 592 | 48.5% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-08-13 | 139–187 on 326 | 42.6% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-08-14 | 258–259 on 517 | 49.9% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-08-15 | 284–274 on 558 | 50.9% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-08-16 | 269–278 on 547 | 49.2% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-08-17 | 190–192 on 382 | 49.7% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-08-18 | 302–276 on 578 | 52.2% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-08-19 | 275–278 on 553 | 49.7% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-08-20 | 145–179 on 324 | 44.8% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-08-21 | 303–257 on 560 | 54.1% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-08-22 | 284–280 on 564 | 50.4% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-08-23 | 269–259 on 528 | 50.9% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-08-24 | 188–190 on 378 | 49.7% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-08-25 | 280–274 on 554 | 50.5% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-08-26 | 279–293 on 572 | 48.8% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-08-27 | 93–87 on 180 | 51.7% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-08-28 | 175–182 on 357 | 49.0% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-08-29 | 237–252 on 489 | 48.5% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-08-30 | 135–133 on 268 | 50.4% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-08-31 | 249–218 on 467 | 53.3% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-09-01 | 311–260 on 571 | 54.5% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-09-02 | 273–221 on 494 | 55.3% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-09-03 | 162–127 on 289 | 56.1% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-09-04 | 300–284 on 584 | 51.4% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-09-05 | 297–264 on 561 | 52.9% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-09-06 | 239–253 on 492 | 48.6% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-09-07 | 92–97 on 189 | 48.7% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-09-08 | 266–286 on 552 | 48.2% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-09-09 | 272–242 on 514 | 52.9% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-09-10 | 67–111 on 178 | 37.6% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-09-11 | 309–254 on 563 | 54.9% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-09-12 | 288–270 on 558 | 51.6% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-09-13 | 282–259 on 541 | 52.1% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-09-14 | 197–182 on 379 | 52.0% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-09-15 | 274–291 on 565 | 48.5% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-09-16 | 303–257 on 560 | 54.1% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-09-17 | 149–183 on 332 | 44.9% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-09-18 | 305–247 on 552 | 55.3% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-09-19 | 283–244 on 527 | 53.7% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-09-20 | 252–277 on 529 | 47.6% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-09-21 | 48–57 on 105 | 45.7% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-09-22 | 273–258 on 531 | 51.4% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-09-23 | 274–255 on 529 | 51.8% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-09-24 | 217–224 on 441 | 49.2% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-09-25 | 211–211 on 422 | 50.0% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-09-26 | 271–203 on 474 | 57.2% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-09-27 | 196–183 on 379 | 51.7% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-09-29 | 64–84 on 148 | 43.2% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-09-30 | 84–70 on 154 | 54.5% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-10-01 | 18–19 on 37 | 48.6% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-10-03 | 56–81 on 137 | 40.9% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-10-04 | 25–42 on 67 | 37.3% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-10-05 | 38–31 on 69 | 55.1% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-10-06 | 33–38 on 71 | 46.5% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-10-07 | 64–77 on 141 | 45.4% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-10-08 | 26–12 on 38 | 68.4% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-10-10 | 10–27 on 37 | 27.0% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-10-11 | 22–16 on 38 | 57.9% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-10-12 | 39–38 on 77 | 50.6% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-10-13 | 19–17 on 36 | 52.8% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-10-14 | 20–21 on 41 | 48.8% | Regular season | Wed |
| 2026-10-15 | 42–42 on 84 | 50.0% | Regular season | Thu |
| 2026-10-17 | 24–17 on 41 | 58.5% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-10-18 | 21–20 on 41 | 51.2% | Regular season | Sun |
| 2026-10-19 | 21–19 on 40 | 52.5% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-10-23 | 22–18 on 40 | 55.0% | Regular season | Fri |
| 2026-10-24 | 29–12 on 41 | 70.7% | Regular season | Sat |
| 2026-10-26 | 21–20 on 41 | 51.2% | Regular season | Mon |
| 2026-10-27 | 9–12 on 21 | 42.9% | Regular season | Tue |
| 2026-10-28 | 20–20 on 40 | 50.0% | Regular season | Wed |
Per-date hit rate sparkline
MLB trend · 131 settled slates50.3%
2026-05-16 → 2026-10-28 · 25107–24804 on 49911 decisive
Correction register: post-start simulations (2026-08-22 – 2026-09-07)
186 archived MLB game reports carried, as their final revision, a full-game simulation regenerated after first pitch while presenting as pregame — a since-fixed scheduling defect (the rerun trusted the board's pre-event stamp instead of its own clock). NONE — the graded record's forecast-of-record rule selects the newest revision strictly BEFORE first pitch from immutable per-run snapshots; no post-start revision was ever graded. Verified empirically (P248): every graded row's forecastGeneratedAt precedes its firstPitchUtc. The full enumeration is published at the corrections register and nothing in the archive was rewritten.
Every settled MLB model pick
All 53,075 graded MLB picks across 132 settled days, 2026-05-16 to 2026-10-28 — not a sample of them. Pushes are neither a win nor a loss and are in no rate below. Every row carries both the model's probability and the market's, so the two are compared on the same picks.
all settled history
50.3%25,107-24,80449,911 decisive · 3,164 void · 1,401 games · 132 days
| Date | Record | Decisive | Push | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 50.0% 20-20 | 40 | — | |
| 2026-10-27 | 42.9% 9-12 | 21 | — | |
| 2026-10-26 | 51.2% 21-20 | 41 | — | |
| 2026-10-24 | 70.7% 29-12 | 41 | — | |
| 2026-10-23 | 55.0% 22-18 | 40 | — | |
| 2026-10-19 | 52.5% 21-19 | 40 | — | |
| 2026-10-18 | 51.2% 21-20 | 41 | — | |
| 2026-10-17 | 58.5% 24-17 | 41 | — | |
| 2026-10-16 | no decided pick | 0 | — | |
| 2026-10-15 | 50.0% 42-42 | 84 | — | |
| 2026-10-14 | 48.8% 20-21 | 41 | — | |
| 2026-10-13 | 52.8% 19-17 | 36 | — | |
| 2026-10-12 | 50.6% 39-38 | 77 | — | |
| 2026-10-11 | 57.9% 22-16 | 38 | — | |
| 2026-10-10 | 27.0% 10-27 | 37 | — | |
| 2026-10-08 | 68.4% 26-12 | 38 | — | |
| 2026-10-07 | 45.4% 64-77 | 141 | — | |
| 2026-10-06 | 46.5% 33-38 | 71 | — | |
| 2026-10-05 | 55.1% 38-31 | 69 | — | |
| 2026-10-04 | 37.3% 25-42 | 67 | — | |
| 2026-10-03 | 40.9% 56-81 | 137 | — | |
| 2026-10-01 | 48.6% 18-19 | 37 | — | |
| 2026-09-30 | 54.5% 84-70 | 154 | — | |
| 2026-09-29 | 43.2% 64-84 | 148 | — | |
| 2026-09-27 | 51.7% 196-183 | 379 | — | |
| 2026-09-26 | 57.2% 271-203 | 474 | — | |
| 2026-09-25 | 50.0% 211-211 | 422 | — | |
| 2026-09-24 | 49.2% 217-224 | 441 | — | |
| 2026-09-23 | 51.8% 274-255 | 529 | — | |
| 2026-09-22 | 51.4% 273-258 | 531 | — | |
| 2026-09-21 | 45.7% 48-57 | 105 | — | |
| 2026-09-20 | 47.6% 252-277 | 529 | — | |
| 2026-09-19 | 53.7% 283-244 | 527 | — | |
| 2026-09-18 | 55.3% 305-247 | 552 | — | |
| 2026-09-17 | 44.9% 149-183 | 332 | — | |
| 2026-09-16 | 54.1% 303-257 | 560 | — | |
| 2026-09-15 | 48.5% 274-291 | 565 | — | |
| 2026-09-14 | 52.0% 197-182 | 379 | — | |
| 2026-09-13 | 52.1% 282-259 | 541 | — | |
| 2026-09-12 | 51.6% 288-270 | 558 | — | |
| 2026-09-11 | 54.9% 309-254 | 563 | — | |
| 2026-09-10 | 37.6% 67-111 | 178 | — | |
| 2026-09-09 | 52.9% 272-242 | 514 | — | |
| 2026-09-08 | 48.2% 266-286 | 552 | — | |
| 2026-09-07 | 48.7% 92-97 | 189 | — | |
| 2026-09-06 | 48.6% 239-253 | 492 | — | |
| 2026-09-05 | 52.9% 297-264 | 561 | — | |
| 2026-09-04 | 51.4% 300-284 | 584 | — | |
| 2026-09-03 | 56.1% 162-127 | 289 | — | |
| 2026-09-02 | 55.3% 273-221 | 494 | — | |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.5% 311-260 | 571 | — | |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.3% 249-218 | 467 | — | |
| 2026-08-30 | 50.4% 135-133 | 268 | — | |
| 2026-08-29 | 48.5% 237-252 | 489 | — | |
| 2026-08-28 | 49.0% 175-182 | 357 | — | |
| 2026-08-27 | 51.7% 93-87 | 180 | — | |
| 2026-08-26 | 48.8% 279-293 | 572 | — | |
| 2026-08-25 | 50.5% 280-274 | 554 | — | |
| 2026-08-24 | 49.7% 188-190 | 378 | — | |
| 2026-08-23 | 50.9% 269-259 | 528 | — | |
| 2026-08-22 | 50.4% 284-280 | 564 | — | |
| 2026-08-21 | 54.1% 303-257 | 560 | — | |
| 2026-08-20 | 44.8% 145-179 | 324 | — | |
| 2026-08-19 | 49.7% 275-278 | 553 | — | |
| 2026-08-18 | 52.2% 302-276 | 578 | — | |
| 2026-08-17 | 49.7% 190-192 | 382 | — | |
| 2026-08-16 | 49.2% 269-278 | 547 | — | |
| 2026-08-15 | 50.9% 284-274 | 558 | — | |
| 2026-08-14 | 49.9% 258-259 | 517 | — | |
| 2026-08-13 | 42.6% 139-187 | 326 | — | |
| 2026-08-12 | 48.5% 287-305 | 592 | — | |
| 2026-08-11 | 47.7% 285-312 | 597 | — | |
| 2026-08-10 | 50.1% 195-194 | 389 | — | |
| 2026-08-09 | 49.3% 283-291 | 574 | — | |
| 2026-08-08 | 52.3% 297-271 | 568 | — | |
| 2026-08-07 | 47.3% 268-299 | 567 | — | |
| 2026-08-06 | 54.7% 227-188 | 415 | — | |
| 2026-08-05 | 41.6% 250-351 | 601 | — | |
| 2026-08-04 | 51.6% 292-274 | 566 | — | |
| 2026-08-03 | 41.0% 71-102 | 173 | — | |
| 2026-07-31 | 53.1% 146-129 | 275 | — | |
| 2026-07-30 | 44.0% 162-206 | 368 | — | |
| 2026-07-27 | 48.3% 213-228 | 441 | — | |
| 2026-07-26 | 50.0% 297-297 | 594 | — | |
| 2026-07-25 | 49.2% 272-281 | 553 | — | |
| 2026-07-24 | 48.7% 291-307 | 598 | — | |
| 2026-07-23 | 49.2% 95-98 | 193 | — | |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.5% 257-296 | 553 | — | |
| 2026-07-21 | 54.8% 23-19 | 42 | — | |
| 2026-07-11 | 45.0% 238-291 | 529 | — | |
| 2026-07-10 | 57.1% 121-91 | 212 | — | |
| 2026-07-09 | 53.9% 172-147 | 319 | — | |
| 2026-07-08 | 49.0% 287-299 | 586 | — | |
| 2026-07-07 | 48.8% 59-62 | 121 | — | |
| 2026-07-06 | 50.5% 164-161 | 325 | — | |
| 2026-07-04 | 48.6% 142-150 | 292 | — | |
| 2026-07-03 | 49.8% 266-268 | 534 | — | |
| 2026-07-02 | 58.5% 214-152 | 366 | — | |
| 2026-07-01 | 51.7% 226-211 | 437 | — | |
| 2026-06-24 | 47.3% 271-302 | 573 | — | |
| 2026-06-22 | 45.4% 214-257 | 471 | — | |
| 2026-06-21 | 51.6% 254-238 | 492 | — | |
| 2026-06-20 | 53.9% 287-245 | 532 | — | |
| 2026-06-19 | 56.8% 304-231 | 535 | — | |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.4% 142-164 | 306 | — | |
| 2026-06-17 | 53.5% 295-256 | 551 | — | |
| 2026-06-16 | 48.1% 262-283 | 545 | — | |
| 2026-06-15 | 45.6% 183-218 | 401 | — | |
| 2026-06-14 | 53.8% 294-252 | 546 | — | |
| 2026-06-13 | 50.4% 287-282 | 569 | — | |
| 2026-06-12 | 47.9% 289-314 | 603 | — | |
| 2026-06-11 | 47.1% 148-166 | 314 | — | |
| 2026-06-10 | 54.9% 320-263 | 583 | — | |
| 2026-06-09 | 57.5% 338-250 | 588 | — | |
| 2026-06-08 | 48.0% 146-158 | 304 | — | |
| 2026-06-07 | 47.4% 281-312 | 593 | — | |
| 2026-06-06 | 45.8% 251-297 | 548 | — | |
| 2026-06-05 | 50.1% 296-295 | 591 | — | |
| 2026-06-04 | 48.1% 186-201 | 387 | — | |
| 2026-06-03 | 46.6% 265-304 | 569 | — | |
| 2026-06-02 | 52.7% 305-274 | 579 | — | |
| 2026-06-01 | 49.7% 152-154 | 306 | — | |
| 2026-05-30 | 51.9% 294-273 | 567 | — | |
| 2026-05-29 | 54.4% 292-245 | 537 | — | |
| 2026-05-28 | 43.0% 92-122 | 214 | — | |
| 2026-05-27 | 48.3% 282-302 | 584 | — | |
| 2026-05-25 | 49.8% 146-147 | 293 | — | |
| 2026-05-23 | 48.8% 139-146 | 285 | — | |
| 2026-05-22 | 55.7% 127-101 | 228 | — | |
| 2026-05-21 | 49.4% 80-82 | 162 | — | |
| 2026-05-18 | 48.1% 149-161 | 310 | — | |
| 2026-05-16 | 52.9% 144-128 | 272 | — |
These picks are not independent observations. They cluster inside games — roughly 38 props per game across the whole record — so the effective sample is far closer to the game count than to the row count, and any confidence interval computed as though each pick stood alone would be several times narrower than the evidence supports. Model and market probabilities are shown side by side on the same picks. A hit rate is not a return: these are probability calls with no stake attached, and nothing here is a betting record. Educational and paper-only.
Candidate models, under terms fixed in advance
A candidate is compared with the model in use on the same settled rows, scored on the same metric, against a bar written down before the window opened. Daily grading is not daily improvement, and a candidate cannot promote itself: every verdict below is a reading, and promotion is a separate act a person performs. Scored over 2026-05-16 → 2026-09-04.
INCONCLUSIVEisotonic-v1 vs raw-modelMLB · prior observation
2026-08-11 → 2026-09-04 · n=11,829 · coverage 100.0% · brier −0.0086 vs incumbent
brier improved by 0.008597, past the bar — but this window was scored before its terms were fixed, so it is context and not a test
WINDOW NOT OPENisotonic-v1 vs raw-modelMLB · preregistered
2026-08-11 → 2026-09-04 · n=11,829 · brier not measured
this cohort ends 2026-09-04 and the registration's window opens 2026-09-06 — there is nothing to score yet
Next: Run once 2000 decisive rows have settled on or after 2026-09-06. At roughly 400 decisive rows a day that is about five settled slates; running it earlier returns “insufficient sample” by design rather than an early answer.
Reproducible from the project’s published audit scripts.