Model audit · deep dive
Every cut of the settled record
Sourced from model_audit.json, rebuilt after every settlement. Pushes excluded from the denominator; pending and insufficient-data rows never counted. Educational only — not betting advice.
NBA settled audit
Per-game stdev9.9pp
Worst game33.8%
Best game67.2%
Games audited17
Per-market
| Market | Record | Hit | Avg |err| | Stdev err | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 483–587 on 1070 | 45.1% | 1.68 | 1.31 | +0.50 |
| PTS | 640–713 on 1353 | 47.3% | 5.51 | 4.08 | +1.25 |
| REB | 661–551 on 1212 | 54.5% | 2.14 | 1.78 | +0.19 |
Per-side × market
| Market | Side | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST | Over | 278–418 on 696 | 39.9% |
| AST | Under | 205–169 on 374 | 54.8% |
| PTS | Over | 417–499 on 916 | 45.5% |
| PTS | Under | 223–214 on 437 | 51.0% |
| REB | Over | 426–353 on 779 | 54.7% |
| REB | Under | 235–198 on 433 | 54.3% |
Confidence tier
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| High | 1146–1202 on 2348 | 48.8% |
| Low | 258–262 on 520 | 49.6% |
| Medium | 222–209 on 431 | 51.5% |
| insufficient_data | 158–178 on 336 | 47.0% |
Edge band (fixed cutoffs)
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5pp | 486–495 on 981 | 49.5% |
| 5–10pp | 505–420 on 925 | 54.6% |
| 10–15pp | 308–335 on 643 | 47.9% |
| 15–25pp | 293–400 on 693 | 42.3% |
| 25pp+ | 192–201 on 393 | 48.9% |
Edge quartile (data-derived)
| Quartile | |Edge| range | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 0.01–4.54pp | 449–459 on 908 | 49.4% |
| Q2 | 4.57–9.45pp | 491–418 on 909 | 54.0% |
| Q3 | 9.45–17.60pp | 433–476 on 909 | 47.6% |
| Q4 | 17.60–49.30pp | 411–498 on 909 | 45.2% |
Per-date timeline
| Date | Record | Hit | Phase | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 80–65 on 145 | 55.2% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-05-17 | 41–20 on 61 | 67.2% | playoff | Sun |
| 2026-05-18 | 108–58 on 166 | 65.1% | playoff | Mon |
| 2026-05-19 | 50–98 on 148 | 33.8% | playoff | Tue |
| 2026-05-20 | 50–30 on 80 | 62.5% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-05-21 | 35–36 on 71 | 49.3% | playoff | Thu |
| 2026-05-22 | 49–34 on 83 | 59.0% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-05-23 | 27–45 on 72 | 37.5% | playoff | Sat |
| 2026-05-25 | 160–164 on 324 | 49.4% | playoff | Mon |
| 2026-05-26 | 146–164 on 310 | 47.1% | playoff | Tue |
| 2026-05-28 | 167–102 on 269 | 62.1% | playoff | Thu |
| 2026-05-30 | 149–121 on 270 | 55.2% | playoff | Sat |
| 2026-06-03 | 105–150 on 255 | 41.2% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-06-05 | 176–169 on 345 | 51.0% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-06-10 | 248–328 on 576 | 43.1% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-06-13 | 193–267 on 460 | 42.0% | playoff | Sat |
Per-date hit rate sparkline
NBA trend · 16 settled slates49.1%
2026-05-15 → 2026-06-13 · 1784–1851 on 3635 decisive
MLB settled audit
Per-game stdev11.6pp
Worst game20.0%
Best game89.5%
Games audited1043
Per-market
| Market | Record | Hit | Avg |err| | Stdev err | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_hits | 8434–7248 on 15682 | 53.8% | 0.71 | 0.54 | +0.02 |
| batter_hits_runs_rbis | 6938–6961 on 13899 | 49.9% | 1.53 | 1.24 | +0.04 |
| batter_total_bases | 3020–4015 on 7035 | 42.9% | 1.49 | 1.24 | +0.05 |
| pitcher_strikeouts | 920–983 on 1903 | 48.3% | 1.88 | 1.39 | +0.03 |
Per-side × market
| Market | Side | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| batter_hits | Over | 6015–4460 on 10475 | 57.4% |
| batter_hits | Under | 2419–2788 on 5207 | 46.5% |
| batter_hits_runs_rbis | Over | 5739–5985 on 11724 | 49.0% |
| batter_hits_runs_rbis | Under | 1199–976 on 2175 | 55.1% |
| batter_total_bases | Over | 2536–3676 on 6212 | 40.8% |
| batter_total_bases | Under | 484–339 on 823 | 58.8% |
| pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 428–499 on 927 | 46.2% |
| pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 492–484 on 976 | 50.4% |
Confidence tier
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| High | 8425–8637 on 17062 | 49.4% |
| Low | 8099–7789 on 15888 | 51.0% |
| Medium | 2788–2781 on 5569 | 50.1% |
Edge band (fixed cutoffs)
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5pp | 10299–9873 on 20172 | 51.1% |
| 5–10pp | 4675–4488 on 9163 | 51.0% |
| 10–15pp | 2594–2831 on 5425 | 47.8% |
| 15–25pp | 1565–1832 on 3397 | 46.1% |
| 25pp+ | 179–183 on 362 | 49.4% |
Edge quartile (data-derived)
| Quartile | |Edge| range | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 0.00–1.94pp | 4959–4670 on 9629 | 51.5% |
| Q2 | 1.94–4.59pp | 4868–4762 on 9630 | 50.6% |
| Q3 | 4.59–9.69pp | 4935–4695 on 9630 | 51.2% |
| Q4 | 9.69–54.14pp | 4550–5080 on 9630 | 47.2% |
Per-date timeline
| Date | Record | Hit | Phase | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 144–128 on 272 | 52.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-05-18 | 149–161 on 310 | 48.1% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-05-21 | 80–82 on 162 | 49.4% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-05-22 | 127–101 on 228 | 55.7% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-05-23 | 139–146 on 285 | 48.8% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-05-25 | 146–147 on 293 | 49.8% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-05-27 | 282–302 on 584 | 48.3% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-05-28 | 92–122 on 214 | 43.0% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-05-29 | 292–245 on 537 | 54.4% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-05-30 | 294–273 on 567 | 51.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-01 | 152–154 on 306 | 49.7% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-02 | 305–274 on 579 | 52.7% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-06-03 | 265–304 on 569 | 46.6% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-06-04 | 186–201 on 387 | 48.1% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-06-05 | 296–295 on 591 | 50.1% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-06-06 | 251–297 on 548 | 45.8% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-07 | 281–312 on 593 | 47.4% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-06-08 | 146–158 on 304 | 48.0% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-09 | 338–250 on 588 | 57.5% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-06-10 | 320–263 on 583 | 54.9% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-06-11 | 148–166 on 314 | 47.1% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-06-12 | 289–314 on 603 | 47.9% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-06-13 | 287–282 on 569 | 50.4% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-14 | 294–252 on 546 | 53.8% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-06-15 | 183–218 on 401 | 45.6% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-16 | 262–283 on 545 | 48.1% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-06-17 | 295–256 on 551 | 53.5% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-06-18 | 142–164 on 306 | 46.4% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-06-19 | 304–231 on 535 | 56.8% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-06-20 | 287–245 on 532 | 53.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-21 | 254–238 on 492 | 51.6% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-06-22 | 214–257 on 471 | 45.4% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-24 | 271–302 on 573 | 47.3% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-07-01 | 226–211 on 437 | 51.7% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-07-02 | 214–152 on 366 | 58.5% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-07-03 | 266–268 on 534 | 49.8% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-07-04 | 142–150 on 292 | 48.6% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-07-06 | 164–161 on 325 | 50.5% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-07-07 | 59–62 on 121 | 48.8% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-07-08 | 287–299 on 586 | 49.0% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-07-09 | 172–147 on 319 | 53.9% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-07-10 | 121–91 on 212 | 57.1% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-07-11 | 238–291 on 529 | 45.0% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-07-21 | 23–19 on 42 | 54.8% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-07-22 | 257–296 on 553 | 46.5% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-07-23 | 95–98 on 193 | 49.2% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-07-24 | 291–307 on 598 | 48.7% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-07-25 | 272–281 on 553 | 49.2% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-07-26 | 297–297 on 594 | 50.0% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-07-27 | 213–228 on 441 | 48.3% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-07-30 | 162–206 on 368 | 44.0% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-07-31 | 146–129 on 275 | 53.1% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-08-03 | 71–102 on 173 | 41.0% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-08-04 | 292–274 on 566 | 51.6% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-08-05 | 250–351 on 601 | 41.6% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-08-06 | 227–188 on 415 | 54.7% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-08-07 | 268–299 on 567 | 47.3% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-08-08 | 297–271 on 568 | 52.3% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-08-09 | 283–291 on 574 | 49.3% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-08-10 | 195–194 on 389 | 50.1% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-08-11 | 285–312 on 597 | 47.7% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-08-12 | 287–305 on 592 | 48.5% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-08-13 | 139–187 on 326 | 42.6% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-08-14 | 258–259 on 517 | 49.9% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-08-15 | 284–274 on 558 | 50.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-08-16 | 269–278 on 547 | 49.2% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-08-17 | 190–192 on 382 | 49.7% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-08-18 | 302–276 on 578 | 52.2% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-08-19 | 275–278 on 553 | 49.7% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-08-20 | 145–179 on 324 | 44.8% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-08-21 | 303–257 on 560 | 54.1% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-08-22 | 284–280 on 564 | 50.4% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-08-23 | 269–259 on 528 | 50.9% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-08-24 | 188–190 on 378 | 49.7% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-08-25 | 280–274 on 554 | 50.5% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-08-26 | 279–293 on 572 | 48.8% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-08-27 | 93–87 on 180 | 51.7% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-08-28 | 175–182 on 357 | 49.0% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-08-29 | 237–252 on 489 | 48.5% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-08-30 | 135–133 on 268 | 50.4% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-08-31 | 249–218 on 467 | 53.3% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-09-01 | 311–260 on 571 | 54.5% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-09-02 | 273–221 on 494 | 55.3% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-09-03 | 162–127 on 289 | 56.1% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-09-04 | 300–284 on 584 | 51.4% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-09-05 | 297–264 on 561 | 52.9% | regular_season | Sat |
Per-date hit rate sparkline
MLB trend · 86 settled slates50.1%
2026-05-16 → 2026-09-05 · 19312–19207 on 38519 decisive
Every settled MLB model pick
All 40,679 graded MLB picks across 86 settled days, 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-05 — not a sample of them. Pushes are neither a win nor a loss and are in no rate below. Every row carries both the model's probability and the market's, so the two are compared on the same picks.
all settled history
50.1%19,312-19,20738,519 decisive · 2,160 push · 1,083 games · 86 days
| Date | Record | Decisive | Push | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 52.9% 297-264 | 561 | 46 | |
| 2026-09-04 | 51.4% 300-284 | 584 | 34 | |
| 2026-09-03 | 56.1% 162-127 | 289 | 25 | |
| 2026-09-02 | 55.3% 273-221 | 494 | 43 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.5% 311-260 | 571 | 37 | |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.3% 249-218 | 467 | 23 | |
| 2026-08-30 | 50.4% 135-133 | 268 | 25 | |
| 2026-08-29 | 48.5% 237-252 | 489 | 23 | |
| 2026-08-28 | 49.0% 175-182 | 357 | 7 | |
| 2026-08-27 | 51.7% 93-87 | 180 | 19 | |
| 2026-08-26 | 48.8% 279-293 | 572 | 47 | |
| 2026-08-25 | 50.5% 280-274 | 554 | 43 | |
| 2026-08-24 | 49.7% 188-190 | 378 | 25 | |
| 2026-08-23 | 50.9% 269-259 | 528 | 46 | |
| 2026-08-22 | 50.4% 284-280 | 564 | 33 | |
| 2026-08-21 | 54.1% 303-257 | 560 | 29 | |
| 2026-08-20 | 44.8% 145-179 | 324 | 27 | |
| 2026-08-19 | 49.7% 275-278 | 553 | 32 | |
| 2026-08-18 | 52.2% 302-276 | 578 | 29 | |
| 2026-08-17 | 49.7% 190-192 | 382 | 28 | |
| 2026-08-16 | 49.2% 269-278 | 547 | 52 | |
| 2026-08-15 | 50.9% 284-274 | 558 | 42 | |
| 2026-08-14 | 49.9% 258-259 | 517 | 39 | |
| 2026-08-13 | 42.6% 139-187 | 326 | 33 | |
| 2026-08-12 | 48.5% 287-305 | 592 | 38 | |
| 2026-08-11 | 47.7% 285-312 | 597 | 34 | |
| 2026-08-10 | 50.1% 195-194 | 389 | 29 | |
| 2026-08-09 | 49.3% 283-291 | 574 | 34 | |
| 2026-08-08 | 52.3% 297-271 | 568 | 32 | |
| 2026-08-07 | 47.3% 268-299 | 567 | 41 | |
| 2026-08-06 | 54.7% 227-188 | 415 | 27 | |
| 2026-08-05 | 41.6% 250-351 | 601 | 27 | |
| 2026-08-04 | 51.6% 292-274 | 566 | 26 | |
| 2026-08-03 | 41.0% 71-102 | 173 | 17 | |
| 2026-07-31 | 53.1% 146-129 | 275 | 24 | |
| 2026-07-30 | 44.0% 162-206 | 368 | 17 | |
| 2026-07-27 | 48.3% 213-228 | 441 | 64 | |
| 2026-07-26 | 50.0% 297-297 | 594 | 33 | |
| 2026-07-25 | 49.2% 272-281 | 553 | 42 | |
| 2026-07-24 | 48.7% 291-307 | 598 | 46 | |
| 2026-07-23 | 49.2% 95-98 | 193 | 13 | |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.5% 257-296 | 553 | 65 | |
| 2026-07-21 | 54.8% 23-19 | 42 | 30 | |
| 2026-07-11 | 45.0% 238-291 | 529 | 42 | |
| 2026-07-10 | 57.1% 121-91 | 212 | 42 | |
| 2026-07-09 | 53.9% 172-147 | 319 | 22 | |
| 2026-07-08 | 49.0% 287-299 | 586 | 58 | |
| 2026-07-07 | 48.8% 59-62 | 121 | 6 | |
| 2026-07-06 | 50.5% 164-161 | 325 | 16 | |
| 2026-07-04 | 48.6% 142-150 | 292 | 18 | |
| 2026-07-03 | 49.8% 266-268 | 534 | 42 | |
| 2026-07-02 | 58.5% 214-152 | 366 | 24 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 51.7% 226-211 | 437 | 20 | |
| 2026-06-24 | 47.3% 271-302 | 573 | 50 | |
| 2026-06-22 | 45.4% 214-257 | 471 | 72 | |
| 2026-06-21 | 51.6% 254-238 | 492 | 71 | |
| 2026-06-20 | 53.9% 287-245 | 532 | 47 | |
| 2026-06-19 | 56.8% 304-231 | 535 | 44 | |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.4% 142-164 | 306 | 48 | |
| 2026-06-17 | 53.5% 295-256 | 551 | 23 | |
| 2026-06-16 | 48.1% 262-283 | 545 | 89 | |
| 2026-06-15 | 45.6% 183-218 | 401 | — | |
| 2026-06-14 | 53.8% 294-252 | 546 | — | |
| 2026-06-13 | 50.4% 287-282 | 569 | — | |
| 2026-06-12 | 47.9% 289-314 | 603 | — | |
| 2026-06-11 | 47.1% 148-166 | 314 | — | |
| 2026-06-10 | 54.9% 320-263 | 583 | — | |
| 2026-06-09 | 57.5% 338-250 | 588 | — | |
| 2026-06-08 | 48.0% 146-158 | 304 | — | |
| 2026-06-07 | 47.4% 281-312 | 593 | — | |
| 2026-06-06 | 45.8% 251-297 | 548 | — | |
| 2026-06-05 | 50.1% 296-295 | 591 | — | |
| 2026-06-04 | 48.1% 186-201 | 387 | — | |
| 2026-06-03 | 46.6% 265-304 | 569 | — | |
| 2026-06-02 | 52.7% 305-274 | 579 | — | |
| 2026-06-01 | 49.7% 152-154 | 306 | — | |
| 2026-05-30 | 51.9% 294-273 | 567 | — | |
| 2026-05-29 | 54.4% 292-245 | 537 | — | |
| 2026-05-28 | 43.0% 92-122 | 214 | — | |
| 2026-05-27 | 48.3% 282-302 | 584 | — | |
| 2026-05-25 | 49.8% 146-147 | 293 | — | |
| 2026-05-23 | 48.8% 139-146 | 285 | — | |
| 2026-05-22 | 55.7% 127-101 | 228 | — | |
| 2026-05-21 | 49.4% 80-82 | 162 | — | |
| 2026-05-18 | 48.1% 149-161 | 310 | — | |
| 2026-05-16 | 52.9% 144-128 | 272 | — |
These picks are not independent observations. They cluster inside games — roughly 38 props per game across the whole record — so the effective sample is far closer to the game count than to the row count, and any confidence interval computed as though each pick stood alone would be several times narrower than the evidence supports. Model and market probabilities are shown side by side on the same picks. A hit rate is not a return: these are probability calls with no stake attached, and nothing here is a betting record. Educational and paper-only.
Candidate models, under terms fixed in advance
A candidate is compared with the model in use on the same settled rows, scored on the same metric, against a bar written down before the window opened. Daily grading is not daily improvement, and a candidate cannot promote itself: every verdict below is a reading, and promotion is a separate act a person performs. Scored over 2026-05-16 → 2026-09-04.
INCONCLUSIVEisotonic-v1 vs raw-modelMLB · prior observation
2026-08-11 → 2026-09-04 · n=11,829 · coverage 100.0% · brier −0.0086 vs incumbent
brier improved by 0.008597, past the bar — but this window was scored before its terms were fixed, so it is context and not a test
WINDOW NOT OPENisotonic-v1 vs raw-modelMLB · preregistered
2026-08-11 → 2026-09-04 · n=11,829 · brier not measured
this cohort ends 2026-09-04 and the registration's window opens 2026-09-06 — there is nothing to score yet
Next: Run once 2000 decisive rows have settled on or after 2026-09-06. At roughly 400 decisive rows a day that is about five settled slates; running it earlier returns INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE by design rather than an early answer.
Reproduce: npx tsx scripts/model-learning-audit.mjs --json /tmp/audit.json && npx tsx scripts/model-eval/evaluate-candidate.mjs --audit /tmp/audit.json