Model audit · deep dive
Every cut of the settled record
Sourced from model_audit.json, rebuilt after every settlement. Pushes excluded from the denominator; pending and insufficient-data rows never counted. Educational only — not betting advice.
NBA settled audit
Strong cohorts
No cohorts cleared the 30-decisive / 5pp deviation threshold yet.
Weak cohorts
- AST Over39.9%278–418 · signal
- Edge 15–25pp42.3%293–400 · signal
Per-game stdev9.9pp
Worst game33.8%
Best game67.2%
Games audited17
Per-market
| Market | Record | Hit | Avg |err| | Stdev err | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 483–587 on 1070 | 45.1% | 1.68 | 1.31 | +0.50 |
| PTS | 640–713 on 1353 | 47.3% | 5.51 | 4.08 | +1.25 |
| REB | 661–551 on 1212 | 54.5% | 2.14 | 1.78 | +0.19 |
Per-side × market
| Market | Side | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST | Over | 278–418 on 696 | 39.9% |
| AST | Under | 205–169 on 374 | 54.8% |
| PTS | Over | 417–499 on 916 | 45.5% |
| PTS | Under | 223–214 on 437 | 51.0% |
| REB | Over | 426–353 on 779 | 54.7% |
| REB | Under | 235–198 on 433 | 54.3% |
Confidence tier
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| High | 1146–1202 on 2348 | 48.8% |
| Low | 258–262 on 520 | 49.6% |
| Medium | 222–209 on 431 | 51.5% |
| insufficient_data | 158–178 on 336 | 47.0% |
Edge band (fixed cutoffs)
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5pp | 486–495 on 981 | 49.5% |
| 5–10pp | 505–420 on 925 | 54.6% |
| 10–15pp | 308–335 on 643 | 47.9% |
| 15–25pp | 293–400 on 693 | 42.3% |
| 25pp+ | 192–201 on 393 | 48.9% |
Edge quartile (data-derived)
| Quartile | |Edge| range | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 0.01–4.54pp | 449–459 on 908 | 49.4% |
| Q2 | 4.57–9.45pp | 491–418 on 909 | 54.0% |
| Q3 | 9.45–17.60pp | 433–476 on 909 | 47.6% |
| Q4 | 17.60–49.30pp | 411–498 on 909 | 45.2% |
Per-date timeline
| Date | Record | Hit | Phase | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 80–65 on 145 | 55.2% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-05-17 | 41–20 on 61 | 67.2% | playoff | Sun |
| 2026-05-18 | 108–58 on 166 | 65.1% | playoff | Mon |
| 2026-05-19 | 50–98 on 148 | 33.8% | playoff | Tue |
| 2026-05-20 | 50–30 on 80 | 62.5% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-05-21 | 35–36 on 71 | 49.3% | playoff | Thu |
| 2026-05-22 | 49–34 on 83 | 59.0% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-05-23 | 27–45 on 72 | 37.5% | playoff | Sat |
| 2026-05-25 | 160–164 on 324 | 49.4% | playoff | Mon |
| 2026-05-26 | 146–164 on 310 | 47.1% | playoff | Tue |
| 2026-05-28 | 167–102 on 269 | 62.1% | playoff | Thu |
| 2026-05-30 | 149–121 on 270 | 55.2% | playoff | Sat |
| 2026-06-03 | 105–150 on 255 | 41.2% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-06-05 | 176–169 on 345 | 51.0% | playoff | Fri |
| 2026-06-10 | 248–328 on 576 | 43.1% | playoff | Wed |
| 2026-06-13 | 193–267 on 460 | 42.0% | playoff | Sat |
Per-date hit rate sparkline
NBA trend · 16 settled slates49.1%
2026-05-15 → 2026-06-13 · 1784–1851 on 3635 decisive
MLB settled audit
Strong cohorts
- batter_hits Over57.4%2558–1896 · signal
- batter_total_bases Under57.3%256–191 · signal
Weak cohorts
- batter_total_bases Over42.7%1162–1562 · signal
Per-game stdev11.2pp
Worst game22.2%
Best game89.5%
Games audited457
Per-market
| Market | Record | Hit | Avg |err| | Stdev err | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_hits | 3712–3190 on 6902 | 53.8% | 0.71 | 0.54 | +0.02 |
| batter_hits_runs_rbis | 2841–2827 on 5668 | 50.1% | 1.56 | 1.29 | +0.07 |
| batter_total_bases | 1418–1753 on 3171 | 44.7% | 1.53 | 1.27 | +0.12 |
| pitcher_strikeouts | 392–434 on 826 | 47.5% | 1.91 | 1.41 | +0.10 |
Per-side × market
| Market | Side | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| batter_hits | Over | 2558–1896 on 4454 | 57.4% |
| batter_hits | Under | 1154–1294 on 2448 | 47.1% |
| batter_hits_runs_rbis | Over | 2290–2370 on 4660 | 49.1% |
| batter_hits_runs_rbis | Under | 551–457 on 1008 | 54.7% |
| batter_total_bases | Over | 1162–1562 on 2724 | 42.7% |
| batter_total_bases | Under | 256–191 on 447 | 57.3% |
| pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 183–208 on 391 | 46.8% |
| pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 209–226 on 435 | 48.0% |
Confidence tier
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| High | 3706–3752 on 7458 | 49.7% |
| Low | 3473–3301 on 6774 | 51.3% |
| Medium | 1184–1151 on 2335 | 50.7% |
Edge band (fixed cutoffs)
| Bucket | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5pp | 4376–4107 on 8483 | 51.6% |
| 5–10pp | 2029–1927 on 3956 | 51.3% |
| 10–15pp | 1143–1220 on 2363 | 48.4% |
| 15–25pp | 726–843 on 1569 | 46.3% |
| 25pp+ | 89–107 on 196 | 45.4% |
Edge quartile (data-derived)
| Quartile | |Edge| range | Record | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 0.00–1.94pp | 2178–1963 on 4141 | 52.6% |
| Q2 | 1.94–4.77pp | 2103–2039 on 4142 | 50.8% |
| Q3 | 4.78–9.97pp | 2117–2025 on 4142 | 51.1% |
| Q4 | 9.97–54.14pp | 1965–2177 on 4142 | 47.4% |
Per-date timeline
| Date | Record | Hit | Phase | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 144–128 on 272 | 52.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-05-18 | 149–161 on 310 | 48.1% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-05-21 | 80–82 on 162 | 49.4% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-05-22 | 127–101 on 228 | 55.7% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-05-23 | 139–146 on 285 | 48.8% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-05-25 | 146–147 on 293 | 49.8% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-05-27 | 282–302 on 584 | 48.3% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-05-28 | 92–122 on 214 | 43.0% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-05-29 | 292–245 on 537 | 54.4% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-05-30 | 294–273 on 567 | 51.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-01 | 152–154 on 306 | 49.7% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-02 | 305–274 on 579 | 52.7% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-06-03 | 265–304 on 569 | 46.6% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-06-04 | 186–201 on 387 | 48.1% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-06-05 | 296–295 on 591 | 50.1% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-06-06 | 251–297 on 548 | 45.8% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-07 | 281–312 on 593 | 47.4% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-06-08 | 146–158 on 304 | 48.0% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-09 | 338–250 on 588 | 57.5% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-06-10 | 320–263 on 583 | 54.9% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-06-11 | 148–166 on 314 | 47.1% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-06-12 | 289–314 on 603 | 47.9% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-06-13 | 287–282 on 569 | 50.4% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-14 | 294–252 on 546 | 53.8% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-06-15 | 183–218 on 401 | 45.6% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-16 | 262–283 on 545 | 48.1% | regular_season | Tue |
| 2026-06-17 | 295–256 on 551 | 53.5% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-06-18 | 142–164 on 306 | 46.4% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-06-19 | 304–231 on 535 | 56.8% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-06-20 | 287–245 on 532 | 53.9% | regular_season | Sat |
| 2026-06-21 | 254–238 on 492 | 51.6% | regular_season | Sun |
| 2026-06-22 | 214–257 on 471 | 45.4% | regular_season | Mon |
| 2026-06-24 | 271–302 on 573 | 47.3% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-07-01 | 226–211 on 437 | 51.7% | regular_season | Wed |
| 2026-07-02 | 214–152 on 366 | 58.5% | regular_season | Thu |
| 2026-07-03 | 266–268 on 534 | 49.8% | regular_season | Fri |
| 2026-07-04 | 142–150 on 292 | 48.6% | regular_season | Sat |
Per-date hit rate sparkline
MLB trend · 37 settled slates50.5%
2026-05-16 → 2026-07-04 · 8363–8204 on 16567 decisive