MLB
Season completetimes in ETGames
0 scheduled · 0 with a report · 0 with a supported read
The 2026 MLB season is complete — it returns in 2027.
2026 season complete — Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series 4–1
Final game, Oct 28: MIL 4, TB 1. No MLB games are left to play. MLB returns in 2027.
Graded record, May 16 – Oct 28: player-prop leans went 25,107–24,804 (50.3% hit rate) over 132 slates.
See the full MLB record →MLB
Simulation Center · season completeSeason completeMLB · 2026 season2026 season complete — Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series 4–1Technical detailsConfidence-tier counts for this slate and the player-prop record.
- Category A (model and market differ by 5 percentage points or more): 0 of 0 projections on the Fri, Oct 30 slate.
- Anomaly-flagged projections, shown separately: 0.
- Player-prop projection record: 50.3% of 49,911 decisive picks — a hit rate, not proof of beating the market.
How the model's picks actually turned out
Player-prop projections: the model's over/under lean against the book's line, graded from the official box score.
49911 graded picks. A hit rate is still not proof a model beats a price — that requires a preregistered comparison against the closing line, which is tracked separately per sport.
A model-performance record, independent of the paper bankroll. It shares no row with the settled money record on /results.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Jacob Misiorowski · MIL v TB | Over 5.5 · 68.7% | 2 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Yandy Diaz · TB v MIL | Under 0.5 · 34.3% | 0 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 73.2% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | William Contreras · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 68.3% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Cooper Pratt · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 69.5% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Brice Turang · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 76.0% | 2 | HIT |
Showing the 6 most recent of 49,911 graded.
Model health · MLB
open for the live record behind each callWinner calls WatchGame totals PausedRun line calls (posted line) Too early to judge
Model status · MLB
What the statuses mean →- Winner callsWatchWatch · not yet distinguishable from a coin flip
Measured by log loss (lower is better) over 826 graded: 0.700 for this call against 0.693 for a coin flip, a difference of +0.007 (95% interval −0.005 to +0.020). The interval includes zero, so this call cannot yet be told apart from a coin flip. For context only (not the measure judged): its picks have landed 51% of the time while showing about 57%.
What does this mean?
Over the games graded so far, this call is slightly behind its floor, but not by enough to be sure it is worse. It keeps publishing while the record grows.
- Game totalsPausedPaused · below a coin flip
Measured by log loss (lower is better) over 782 graded: 0.728 for this call against 0.693 for a coin flip, a difference of +0.035 (95% interval +0.017 to +0.053). The whole interval is above zero: worse than a coin flip on this measure. For context only (not the measure judged): its picks have landed 49% of the time while showing about 59%.
What does this mean?
Over the games graded so far, this call has fallen clearly below its floor — a coin flip, or the preregistered bars it is tested against. Its public call is withdrawn or handed back to the previous rule; it is still graded every day and comes back when its record recovers.
- Run line calls (posted line)Too early to judgeToo early to judge
16 graded so far — not yet enough to judge against a coin flip.
What does this mean?
Not enough games have been graded to judge this call either way. The number is published; the verdict on it is not.
How the MLB simulation works
independent full-game sim + 10,000-run player-prop sim- · Team markets (moneyline / run line / total) are the de-vigged sportsbook lines — a market-anchored read, settled from the official box score.
- · Player props (strikeouts / hits / total bases) use a 10,000-run simulation from MLB Stats API game logs where the artifact exists; otherwise a projection vs the line.
- · An independent full-game Monte Carlo — 10,000 complete simulated games built from the pregame board projections — produces the projected score, win probability and run distributions where its artifact qualifies; games without one show no projected score. It has not been validated to out-predict the market, and team totals stay out of product cards until settlement is proven.
Market-by-market coverage below
What we simulate — and what we don’t (yet)
Every market we cover, plus the ones we don’t — with the exact reason (provider feed, settlement, or validation). We never show a market we can’t back with real data.
De-vigged sportsbook moneyline. Settled from the official box score.
De-vigged run line. Settled from the official final score.
De-vigged total. Settled from the official final score.
Strikeouts / hits / total bases projected from game logs vs the line; a 10,000-run prop sim is shown only where the artifact exists. Settled from the official box score. Not market-proven: across 18,659 settled leans none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the sportsbook price on Brier or log loss, so the model number is a market-anchored research signal and the market price is the better probability.
An independent full-game Monte Carlo — 10,000 complete simulated games from the pregame board projections — produces the projected score, win probability and run distributions where its artifact qualifies; games without one show no projected score. Game Simulation; Model Performance: it has not been validated to out-predict the market.
Team totals can be read from odds but are not yet settlement-validated, so they stay out of product cards until grading is proven.
Settlement: pending · needs: Odds API team-total lines, team-total settlement source
First-5-innings markets are planned; they need the F5 line feed and inning-level settlement.
Settlement: pending · needs: Odds API F5 lines, F5 settlement (linescore innings 1-5)
4 supported · 1 need a provider/build · markets that are unavailable or not in products are never in Bank Builder / Moonshot.