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15 scheduled · 15 with a report · 14 with a supported read · 14 started or final

Started or final

MLB

Simulation CenterLive· 15 gamesMLB · 2026 seasonSlate · 2026-09-06
15Games today· 2026-09-06615Projections· real prop lines253 · 14Category A · Category C· track record 50.1% on 38519
Homer Nukes →Full model board →Results →
MLB boardLive today

MLB — today’s board

Home runs · batters · pitchers · teams · games
Homer Nukes · 15 games

Most likely to go deep today

The model's five highest home-run probabilities from 422 batter-vs-starter pairings. Each is its own number — this is not a card, and the five are not combined.

Full model board →

2 of these 5 face Aaron Nola — the model reads him as today's most homer-prone start, so the board clusters there on purpose.

  1. 1Matt Olson
    Matt OlsonATL logovsPHI logo
    ATL @ PHI · off Aaron Nola · Citizens Bank Park
    28.4%

    37 HR in 617 plate appearances (6.0% of trips, league 3.0%). Aaron Nola has been more homer-prone than average (32 allowed in 638 batters faced), lifting it to 28.4%.

  2. 2Joc Pederson
    Joc PedersonTEX logovsTB logo
    TB @ TEX · off Ian Seymour · Globe Life Field
    23.9%

    25 HR in 416 plate appearances (6.0% of trips, league 3.0%). Ian Seymour has been more homer-prone than average (20 allowed in 470 batters faced), lifting it to 23.9%.

  3. 3Munetaka Murakami
    Munetaka MurakamiCWS logovsMIN logo
    MIN @ CWS · off Bailey Ober · Rate Field
    23.6%

    30 HR in 468 plate appearances (6.4% of trips, league 3.0%). Bailey Ober has been more homer-prone than average (18 allowed in 477 batters faced), lifting it to 23.7%.

  4. 4Kyle Schwarber
    Kyle SchwarberPHI logovsATL logo
    ATL @ PHI · off Tyler Mahle · Citizens Bank Park
    23.3%

    41 HR in 610 plate appearances (6.7% of trips, league 3.0%). Tyler Mahle sits near league average for homers allowed (17 in 521), so the matchup barely moves it to 23.2%.

  5. 5Michael Harris II
    Michael Harris IIATL logovsPHI logo
    ATL @ PHI · off Aaron Nola · Citizens Bank Park
    22.4%

    24 HR in 542 plate appearances (4.4% of trips, league 3.0%). Aaron Nola has been more homer-prone than average (32 allowed in 638 batters faced), lifting it to 22.4%.

How these are calculated, and what they leave out

Season HR per plate appearance, regressed to the league rate, scaled by the opposing probable starter's regressed HR-allowed rate, over a league-average number of trips to the plate.

League baseline is 3.0% of plate appearances, over 4.21 trips per lineup slot. A batter needs 120 plate appearances to be ranked at all, and every rate is pulled toward the league mean so a hot fortnight cannot top the board on its own.

Not in the model: park factor, weather and wind, batter/pitcher handedness split, batting-order slot (trips to the plate are a league average, not this batter's lineup spot), bullpen faced after the starter leaves.

Settled from official box scores: 13 of 88 graded picks homered against 21.5 expected. No accuracy claim is made at this sample size, and no home-run market price is fetched, so it makes no claim to beat a sportsbook. It is the model's own read, published so it can be measured.

Batters

Batter props

Hits · total bases · hits+runs+RBIs, filterable.
150 shown
market-implied % from real odds · confidence is a market read, not a model claim
Bo BichetteNYM logoBo BichettevsSF logo-295Hits 0.575% mktEliteBetRiversSan Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Luis ArraezPHI logoLuis ArraezvsATL logo-278Hits 0.574% mktEliteBetRiversAtlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
TJ RumfieldCOL logoTJ RumfieldvsSTL logo-275Hits 0.573% mktEliteBetRiversSt. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Chandler SimpsonTB logoChandler Simpson@TEX logo-265Hits 0.573% mktEliteBetRiversTampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Yordan AlvarezHOU logoYordan AlvarezvsAZ logo-265Hits 0.573% mktEliteBetRiversArizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Cole CarriggCOL logoCole CarriggvsSTL logo-260Hits 0.572% mktEliteFanaticsSt. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD logoFernando Tatis Jr.vsNYY logo-259Hits 0.572% mktEliteDraftKingsNew York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Alejandro KirkTOR logoAlejandro Kirk@KC logo-256Hits 0.572% mktEliteBetOnline.agToronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
YD
Yandy Diaz-254Hits 0.572% mktEliteDraftKingsTampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC logoPete Crow-Armstrong@MIA logo-250Hits 0.571% mktEliteBetRiversChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers

Pitcher props

Strikeouts · outs recorded · earned runs, same filters.
60 shown
market-implied % from real odds · confidence is a market read, not a model claim
Bryan WooSEA logoBryan WoovsATH logo-205Outs recorded 17.567% mktEliteDraftKingsAthletics @ Seattle Mariners
Ian SeymourTB logoIan Seymour@TEX logo-172Earned runs 1.563% mktEliteDraftKingsTampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Gage JumpATH logoGage Jump@SEA logo-170Earned runs 1.563% mktEliteDraftKingsAthletics @ Seattle Mariners
Tyler PhillipsMIA logoTyler PhillipsvsCHC logo-170Earned runs 1.563% mktEliteBovadaChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Gerrit ColeNYY logoGerrit Cole@SD logo-169Earned runs 1.563% mktEliteDraftKingsNew York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Tanner GordonCOL logoTanner GordonvsSTL logo-167Strikeouts 3.563% mktEliteBetRiversSt. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Clay HolmesCHC logoClay Holmes@MIA logo-163Earned runs 1.562% mktStrongDraftKingsChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Payton TolleBOS logoPayton Tolle@BAL logo-161Strikeouts 6.562% mktStrongBetOnline.agBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Jackson JobeDET logoJackson Jobe@CLE logo-160Earned runs 1.562% mktStrongDraftKingsDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Payton TolleBOS logoPayton Tolle@BAL logo-159Outs recorded 16.561% mktStrongBetRiversBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Teams

Team markets

Win probability, run line and total for every game — de-vigged.
1:12 PM ETCoin flipO/U 8
ATL logoAtlanta Braves50%
PHI logoPhiladelphia Phillies50%
Run linePHI −1.5 · ATL +1.5
1:35 PM ETBOS favouredO/U 7 · leans over
BOS logoBoston Red Sox55%
BAL logoBaltimore Orioles45%
Run lineBAL −1.5 · BOS +1.5
1:35 PM ETPIT favouredO/U 7 · leans over
LAA logoLos Angeles Angels38%
PIT logoPittsburgh Pirates62%
Run lineLAA −1.5 · PIT +1.5
1:40 PM ETCLE favouredO/U 7
DET logoDetroit Tigers40%
CLE logoCleveland Guardians60%
Run lineDET −1.5 · CLE +1.5
1:40 PM ETNYM favouredO/U 8
SF logoSan Francisco Giants42%
NYM logoNew York Mets58%
Run lineSF −1.5 · NYM +1.5
1:41 PM ETCHC favouredO/U 8 · leans over
CHC logoChicago Cubs57%
MIA logoMiami Marlins43%
Run lineMIA −1.5 · CHC +1.5
2:10 PM ETCoin flipO/U 8
AZ logoArizona Diamondbacks49%
HOU logoHouston Astros51%
Run lineHOU −1.5 · AZ +1.5
2:11 PM ETTOR favouredO/U 9.5 · leans under
TOR logoToronto Blue Jays53%
KC logoKansas City Royals47%
Run lineKC −1.5 · TOR +1.5
2:36 PM ETCoin flipO/U 7.5
TB logoTampa Bay Rays50%
TEX logoTexas Rangers50%
Run lineTEX −1.5 · TB +1.5
3:10 PM ETSTL favouredO/U 11
STL logoSt. Louis Cardinals55%
COL logoColorado Rockies45%
Run lineCOL −1.5 · STL +1.5
4:10 PM ETSEA favouredO/U 7 · leans over
ATH logoAthletics36%
SEA logoSeattle Mariners64%
Run lineATH −1.5 · SEA +1.5
4:10 PM ETCoin flipO/U 7
NYY logoNew York Yankees50%
SD logoSan Diego Padres50%
Run lineSD −1.5 · NYY +1.5
6:20 PM ETCWS favouredO/U 8.5
MIN logoMinnesota Twins43%
CWS logoChicago White Sox57%
Run lineMIN −1.5 · CWS +1.5
10:11 PM ETLAD favouredO/U 8 · leans over
WSH logoWashington Nationals36%
LAD logoLos Angeles Dodgers64%
Run lineWSH −1.5 · LAD +1.5

De-vigged sportsbook prices · the market’s read, not a model pick

Games

Game Explorer

Every game on the slate — tap a card for first pitch, featured props & pitchers on the board.
Full-game simulationRun a game 10,000 timesScore distribution, win probability and every player market for one matchup.
Simulations · 15 games

Open a game's full distribution

Every game on the slate simulated pitch by pitch from the posted lineups — win probability, the run-total distribution, the likeliest final scores, the run line and a simulated box score. These are the model's own numbers and are not compared against any sportsbook price.

MIL logoCIN logo12:10 PM ET

MIL at CIN

even in the simulation

batting order not posted yet · refreshes hourly

Open the simulation →

ATL logoPHI logo1:10 PM ET

ATL at PHI

ATL 51.1% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 3.9%

batting order not posted yet · refreshes hourly

Open the simulation →

BOS logoBAL logo1:35 PM ET

BOS at BAL

BOS 54.1% · median 7 runs

likeliest 3–4 at 3.8%

Open the simulation →

LAA logoPIT logo1:35 PM ET

LAA at PIT

PIT 60.7% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 4.0%

Open the simulation →

DET logoCLE logo1:40 PM ET

DET at CLE

CLE 52.3% · median 6 runs

likeliest 1–2 at 4.7%

Open the simulation →

SF logoNYM logo1:40 PM ET

SF at NYM

NYM 50.7% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 4.2%

Open the simulation →

CHC logoMIA logo1:40 PM ET

CHC at MIA

CHC 69.8% · median 9 runs

likeliest 3–4 at 2.5%

Open the simulation →

AZ logoHOU logo2:10 PM ET

AZ at HOU

AZ 53.3% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 4.0%

Open the simulation →

TOR logoKC logo2:10 PM ET

TOR at KC

TOR 57.2% · median 7 runs

likeliest 1–2 at 3.4%

Open the simulation →

TB logoTEX logo2:35 PM ET

TB at TEX

TEX 53.7% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 4.2%

Open the simulation →

STL logoCOL logo3:10 PM ET

STL at COL

COL 59.8% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 4.0%

Open the simulation →

ATH logoSEA logo4:10 PM ET

ATH at SEA

ATH 56.6% · median 8 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 3.4%

batting order not posted yet · refreshes hourly

Open the simulation →

NYY logoSD logo4:10 PM ET

NYY at SD

SD 50.9% · median 7 runs

likeliest 3–4 at 3.7%

Open the simulation →

MIN logoCWS logo6:20 PM ET

MIN at CWS

MIN 65.7% · median 8 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 3.0%

Open the simulation →

WSH logoLAD logo10:10 PM ET

WSH at LAD

LAD 52.1% · median 7 runs

likeliest 2–3 at 4.4%

batting order not posted yet · refreshes hourly

Open the simulation →

11 of 15 are built on both confirmed batting orders; the rest use the batters who have posted lines so far and refresh as the orders arrive.

Picks vs outcomes · 38,519 graded

How the model's picks actually turned out

Player-prop projections: the model's over/under lean against the book's line, graded from the official box score.

Full record →
19,312 hit · 19,207 missed2,160 void — a condition that did not hold is never scored as a miss50.1% hit rate

38519 graded picks. A hit rate is still not proof a model beats a price — that requires a preregistered comparison against the closing line, which is tracked separately per sport.

A model-performance record, independent of the paper bankroll. It shares no row with the settled money record on /results.

DateEventModel saidWhat happenedResult
2026-09-05Ryan Gusto · MIA v CHCUnder 3.5 · 66.5%5MISS
2026-09-05Javier Assad · CHC v MIAUnder 3.5 · 84.1%3HIT
2026-09-05Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC v MIAOver 1.5 · 37.9%1MISS
2026-09-05Nico Hoerner · CHC v MIAOver 0.5 · 72.2%3HIT
2026-09-05Otto Lopez · MIA v CHCOver 0.5 · 72.1%1HIT
2026-09-05Alex Bregman · CHC v MIAOver 0.5 · 77.8%0MISS

Showing the 6 most recent of 38,519 graded.

Risk ladder · paper

Card at each risk level · 2026-09-06

The model’s highest-scoring card in each price band, one per tier, tracked separately from every money product here. The live record restarted when the selection rules changed; what the previous policy did is shown above rather than carried forward.

Medium risk+206
This tier63–291 · -5.6%
  • Rafael DeversSF logoRafael DeversOver 0.5 Hits · vs NYM-170
  • Dustin HarrisSD logoDustin HarrisOver 0.5 Hits · vs NYY-108
2 legs · all must landCustomize this card →
Longshot+2913
This tier24–333 · -7.1%
  • Lawrence ButlerATH logoLawrence ButlerOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs · vs SEA+121
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC logoPete Crow-ArmstrongOver 1.5 Total Bases · vs MIA-109
  • Alex BregmanCHC logoAlex BregmanOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs · vs MIA-119
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS logoWilyer AbreuOver 1.5 Total Bases · vs BAL+140
  • Riley GreeneDET logoRiley GreeneOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs · vs CLE-164
5 legs · all must landCustomize this card →
low riskNo card todayno priced card in this tier on today's slate
high riskNo card todayevery card in this tier reused a leg already on the ladder, or ran past the five-leg cap

Paper stream with its own ledger · never part of the Bank Builder / Moonshot bankroll or the settled product record

How the MLB simulation works

market-anchored + 10,000-run player-prop sim
  • · Team markets (moneyline / run line / total) are the de-vigged sportsbook lines — a market-anchored read, settled from the official box score.
  • · Player props (strikeouts / hits / total bases) use a 10,000-run simulation from MLB Stats API game logs where the artifact exists; otherwise a projection vs the line.
  • · There is no independent full-game score model yet — full-game outcomes are market-implied and labelled experimental. Team totals stay out of product cards until settlement is proven.

Market-by-market coverage below

What we simulate — and what we don’t (yet)

Every market we cover, plus the ones we don’t — with the exact reason (provider feed, settlement, or validation). We never show a market we can’t back with real data.

MLBmarket-anchored + 10k player-prop sim
MoneylineSupported

De-vigged sportsbook moneyline. Settled from the official box score.

Run lineSupported

De-vigged run line. Settled from the official final score.

Total (O/U)Supported

De-vigged total. Settled from the official final score.

Player props (K / hits / TB)Conditional

Strikeouts / hits / total bases projected from game logs vs the line; a 10,000-run prop sim is shown only where the artifact exists. Settled from the official box score.

Full-game score simulationExperimental

Full-game outcomes are currently MARKET-IMPLIED (from the de-vigged lines), not an independent score simulation. An independent, backtested sim is on the roadmap — not claimed until validated.

Team totalsSettlement blocked

Team totals can be read from odds but are not yet settlement-validated, so they stay out of product cards until grading is proven.

Settlement: pending · needs: Odds API team-total lines, team-total settlement source

First 5 innings (F5)Coming soon

First-5-innings markets are planned; they need the F5 line feed and inning-level settlement.

Settlement: pending · needs: Odds API F5 lines, F5 settlement (linescore innings 1-5)

9 supported · 5 need a provider/build · settlement-blocked + experimental markets are never in Bank Builder / Moonshot.

MLB · model reads

What the model is most confident about today

What each simulation is most confident about today, ranked by the model's own probability — not by any gap against a sportsbook price. A watchlist, not a bet.

COLUnder 11 runsMLB · Game total · simulated median 7 runs74.4%ATLMatt Olson to homerMLB · Anytime home run · ATL @ PHI · off Aaron Nola28.4%KCUnder 9.5 runsMLB · Game total · simulated median 7 runs73.2%TEXJoc Pederson to homerMLB · Anytime home run · TB @ TEX · off Ian Seymour23.9%CHCCHC to winMLB · Moneyline · CHC @ MIA · simulated median 5–369.8%

mlb — Its modelled markets were measured against the sportsbook and demoted to market context — the simulation is published, not claimed to beat a price.

NFL — not listed: the model does not currently tell these teams apart — its team-strength term was measured and found not to be statistically significant, so it produces near-identical reads for every game.

Paper-only and educational. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.