Track record · MLB

Picks vs outcomes

Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.

Picks vs outcomes · 38,519 graded

How the model's picks actually turned out

Player-prop projections: the model's over/under lean against the book's line, graded from the official box score.

Full record →

19,312 hit · 19,207 missed2,160 void — a condition that did not hold is never scored as a miss50.1% hit rate

38519 graded picks. A hit rate is still not proof a model beats a price — that requires a preregistered comparison against the closing line, which is tracked separately per sport.

A model-performance record, independent of the paper bankroll. It shares no row with the settled money record on /results.

Date	Event	Model said	What happened	Result
2026-09-05	Ryan Gusto · MIA v CHC	Under 3.5 · 66.5%	5	MISS
2026-09-05	Javier Assad · CHC v MIA	Under 3.5 · 84.1%	3	HIT
2026-09-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 37.9%	1	MISS
2026-09-05	Nico Hoerner · CHC v MIA	Over 0.5 · 72.2%	3	HIT
2026-09-05	Otto Lopez · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 72.1%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Alex Bregman · CHC v MIA	Over 0.5 · 77.8%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Seiya Suzuki · CHC v MIA	Over 0.5 · 72.8%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Javier Sanoja · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 77.1%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Michael Busch · CHC v MIA	Under 0.5 · 38.4%	2	MISS
2026-09-05	Ian Happ · CHC v MIA	Over 0.5 · 63.8%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Agustín Ramírez · MIA v CHC	Under 0.5 · 44.9%	0	HIT
2026-09-05	Griffin Conine · MIA v CHC	Under 0.5 · 42.1%	1	MISS
2026-09-05	Jakob Marsee · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 57.0%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Michael Conforto · CHC v MIA	Over 0.5 · 57.9%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Miguel Amaya · CHC v MIA	Under 0.5 · 49.1%	2	MISS
2026-09-05	Owen Caissie · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 50.5%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Joe Mack · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 57.0%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Graham Pauley · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 55.6%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 72.8%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Alex Bregman · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 71.5%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Seiya Suzuki · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 68.0%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Nico Hoerner · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 57.0%	4	HIT
2026-09-05	Otto Lopez · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 59.9%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Michael Busch · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 53.9%	4	HIT
2026-09-05	Javier Sanoja · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 59.1%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Ian Happ · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 57.2%	4	HIT
2026-09-05	Griffin Conine · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 46.4%	5	HIT
2026-09-05	Agustín Ramírez · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 45.9%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Jakob Marsee · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 46.9%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Michael Conforto · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 51.4%	5	HIT
2026-09-05	Miguel Amaya · CHC v MIA	Over 0.5 · 64.6%	4	HIT
2026-09-05	Joe Mack · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 67.6%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Owen Caissie · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 62.2%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Graham Pauley · MIA v CHC	Over 0.5 · 70.3%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 68.7%	1	MISS
2026-09-05	Seiya Suzuki · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 58.6%	1	MISS
2026-09-05	Otto Lopez · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 51.8%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Alex Bregman · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 67.9%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Michael Busch · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 50.0%	3	HIT
2026-09-05	Javier Sanoja · MIA v CHC	Over 1.5 · 55.0%	1	MISS
2026-09-05	Nico Hoerner · CHC v MIA	Over 1.5 · 47.7%	3	HIT
2026-09-05	Bo Bichette · NYM v SF	Under 1.5 · 70.0%	0	HIT
2026-09-05	Francisco Lindor · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 67.9%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Carson Benge · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 72.7%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Jung Hoo Lee · SF v NYM	Under 0.5 · 37.8%	—	VOID
2026-09-05	Juan Soto · NYM v SF	Under 0.5 · 37.1%	0	HIT
2026-09-05	Bryce Eldridge · SF v NYM	Over 0.5 · 77.7%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Jared Young · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 61.6%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Rafael Devers · SF v NYM	Over 0.5 · 81.2%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	A.J. Ewing · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 62.1%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Jonah Cox · SF v NYM	Over 0.5 · 65.0%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Marcus Semien · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 62.6%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Turner Hill · SF v NYM	Over 0.5 · 69.6%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Francisco Alvarez · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 58.8%	0	MISS
2026-09-05	Andrew Knizner · SF v NYM	Under 0.5 · 48.7%	0	HIT
2026-09-05	Christian Koss · SF v NYM	Over 0.5 · 54.7%	2	HIT
2026-09-05	Osleivis Basabe · SF v NYM	Over 0.5 · 54.7%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Brett Baty · NYM v SF	Over 0.5 · 58.8%	1	HIT
2026-09-05	Shay Whitcomb · SF v NYM	Under 0.5 · 57.9%	1	MISS
2026-09-05	Francisco Lindor · NYM v SF	Over 1.5 · 62.5%	0	MISS

Showing the 60 most recent of 38,519 graded.

A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.

Separate record · game level

Game predictions

Game-level predictions — winner, total and run line from the full-game simulation — graded against official StatsAPI finals, from the newest artifact revision that pre-dates each game's first pitch.

Market	Graded	Record	Rate
Winner (moneyline)	505	254–251	50.3%
Total (over/under)	504	240–242–22 pushes	49.8%
Run line	505	319–186	63.2%

91% of graded run-line picks took the +1.5 side, whose base cover rate is close to this hit rate — and no market price is recorded for this family, so the percentage supports no claim against the market.

A model-performance record, separate from the 32,227-row player-prop record and from the settled money record: different questions, different denominators, never combined. Each row is graded from the newest prediction revision generated before that game's first pitch; 318 earlier game finals have no such pre-event artifact and are named as gaps rather than reconstructed.