Picks vs outcomes
Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
How the model's picks actually turned out
Player-prop projections: the model's over/under lean against the book's line, graded from the official box score.
49911 graded picks. A hit rate is still not proof a model beats a price — that requires a preregistered comparison against the closing line, which is tracked separately per sport.
A model-performance record, independent of the paper bankroll. It shares no row with the settled money record on /results.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Jacob Misiorowski · MIL v TB | Over 5.5 · 68.7% | 2 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Yandy Diaz · TB v MIL | Under 0.5 · 34.3% | 0 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 73.2% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | William Contreras · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 68.3% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Cooper Pratt · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 69.5% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Brice Turang · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 76.0% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Junior Caminero · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 71.0% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Sal Frelick · MIL v TB | Under 0.5 · 47.2% | 0 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Jonny Deluca · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 70.2% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Christian Yelich · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 60.9% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Chandler Simpson · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 78.4% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Jake Bauers · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 65.4% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Jonathan Aranda · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 65.5% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Liam Hicks · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 65.9% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Garrett Mitchell · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 59.1% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Victor Mesa Jr. · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 65.6% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | David Hamilton · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 59.3% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Richie Palacios · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 61.1% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Taylor Walls · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 59.3% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 68.2% | 1 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | William Contreras · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 60.5% | 3 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Yandy Diaz · TB v MIL | Over 1.5 · 60.2% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Brice Turang · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 68.7% | 3 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Junior Caminero · TB v MIL | Over 1.5 · 62.2% | 1 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Cooper Pratt · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 54.5% | 5 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Christian Yelich · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 56.0% | 1 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Sal Frelick · MIL v TB | Under 1.5 · 61.1% | 0 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Jake Bauers · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 58.4% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Jonny Deluca · TB v MIL | Over 1.5 · 58.5% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Chandler Simpson · TB v MIL | Over 1.5 · 64.1% | 3 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Jonathan Aranda · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 72.8% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Liam Hicks · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 72.4% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Garrett Mitchell · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 68.5% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | David Hamilton · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 66.7% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Victor Mesa Jr. · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 74.0% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Richie Palacios · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 77.8% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Taylor Walls · TB v MIL | Over 0.5 · 76.0% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 56.3% | 1 | MISS |
| 2026-10-28 | William Contreras · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 50.0% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-28 | Yandy Diaz · TB v MIL | Over 1.5 · 45.4% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Griffin Jax · TB v MIL | Over 3.5 · 56.0% | 6 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 36.9% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | Christian Yelich · MIL v TB | Under 0.5 · 39.1% | 0 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | William Contreras · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 68.3% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Brice Turang · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 76.0% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Sal Frelick · MIL v TB | Under 0.5 · 47.2% | 1 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Jake Bauers · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 65.4% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Garrett Mitchell · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 59.1% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Cooper Pratt · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 69.5% | 4 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | David Hamilton · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 59.3% | 1 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 68.2% | 2 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | William Contreras · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 60.5% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Christian Yelich · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 56.0% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Brice Turang · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 68.7% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Jake Bauers · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 58.4% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Garrett Mitchell · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 50.0% | 0 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Sal Frelick · MIL v TB | Under 1.5 · 61.1% | 2 | MISS |
| 2026-10-27 | Cooper Pratt · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 54.5% | 7 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | David Hamilton · MIL v TB | Over 0.5 · 66.7% | 3 | HIT |
| 2026-10-27 | Jackson Chourio · MIL v TB | Over 1.5 · 56.3% | 3 | HIT |
Showing the 60 most recent of 49,911 graded.
A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.
Game predictions
Game-level predictions — winner, total and run line from the full-game simulation — graded against official StatsAPI finals, from the newest artifact revision that pre-dates each game's first pitch.
| Market | Graded | Record | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner (moneyline) | 826 | 423–403 | 51.2% |
| Total (over/under) | 821 | 384–398–39 pushes | 49.1% |
| Run line (simulated ±1.5, retired) | 810 | 510–300 | 63.0% |
| Run line (posted line) | 16 | 7–9 | 43.8% |
92% of graded run-line picks took the +1.5 side, whose base cover rate is close to this hit rate — and no market price is recorded for this family, so the percentage supports no claim against the market.
A model-performance record, separate from the 32,227-row player-prop record and from the settled money record: different questions, different denominators, never combined. Each row is graded from the newest prediction revision generated before that game's first pitch; 327 earlier game finals have no such pre-event artifact and are named as gaps rather than reconstructed.