Track record · Premier League
Picks vs outcomes
Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
Picks vs outcomes · 76 graded
How the model's picks actually turned out
Match-result forecasts: the outcome the model gave the most probability to, graded against the official full-time score.
34 hit · 42 missed44.7% hit rate
76 graded picks is still a small sample. A hit rate over this many outcomes has a wide enough margin of error to be consistent with almost any true accuracy.
This model has cleared no preregistered bar and publishes distributions rather than picks — the 'predicted' column is simply its likeliest outcome.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Sunderland v Leeds United | home win · 39.4% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | home win · 38.1% | away win (0-2) | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | Hull City v Brentford | away win · 46.6% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | home win · 48.4% | home win (2-0) | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | Manchester United v Bournemouth | home win · 49.5% | away win (0-3) | MISS |
| 2026-10-24 | Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | home win · 58.6% | away win (0-2) | MISS |
| 2026-10-24 | Arsenal v Everton | home win · 68.8% | home win (2-0) | HIT |
| 2026-10-24 | Coventry City v Fulham | away win · 43.6% | away win (0-1) | HIT |
| 2026-10-24 | Aston Villa v Manchester City | away win · 51.9% | home win (2-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-23 | Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | away win · 44.1% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-19 | Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | home win · 52.2% | home win (3-1) | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | away win · 54.5% | away win (0-1) | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | home win · 58.2% | home win (2-0) | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | home win · 60.3% | home win (5-0) | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | Leeds United v Manchester United | away win · 39.4% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-17 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | home win · 43.8% | away win (0-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-17 | Fulham v Hull City | home win · 53.6% | home win (1-0) | HIT |
| 2026-10-17 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | home win · 84.5% | home win (3-2) | HIT |
| 2026-10-17 | Brentford v Liverpool | home win · 39.5% | away win (1-2) | MISS |
| 2026-10-17 | Everton v Chelsea | home win · 45.3% | away win (0-2) | MISS |
| 2026-10-12 | Coventry City v Newcastle United | away win · 49.0% | home win (4-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-11 | Liverpool v Manchester City | away win · 43.3% | away win (0-3) | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | home win · 40.6% | home win (3-1) | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | Hull City v Everton | away win · 41.9% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-10-10 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | home win · 66.1% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-10 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | home win · 41.9% | home win (5-1) | HIT |
| 2026-10-10 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | away win · 41.1% | home win (2-1) | MISS |
| 2026-10-10 | Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | away win · 45.6% | away win (0-2) | HIT |
| 2026-10-10 | Aston Villa v Brentford | home win · 43.0% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-10-10 | Arsenal v Leeds United | home win · 71.2% | home win (2-1) | HIT |
| 2026-09-20 | Fulham v Manchester United | away win · 41.9% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-20 | Bournemouth v Liverpool | home win · 41.5% | away win (0-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-20 | Leeds United v Crystal Palace | home win · 50.5% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-20 | Manchester City v Sunderland | home win · 77.0% | home win (5-3) | HIT |
| 2026-09-19 | Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | home win · 67.3% | away win (0-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-19 | Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | away win · 50.8% | home win (3-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-19 | Everton v Ipswich Town | home win · 61.1% | home win (1-0) | HIT |
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle United v Hull City | home win · 57.4% | home win (2-1) | HIT |
| 2026-09-19 | Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | away win · 43.3% | away win (2-3) | HIT |
| 2026-09-18 | Brentford v Chelsea | home win · 45.1% | home win (3-0) | HIT |
| 2026-09-14 | Leeds United v Newcastle United | away win · 47.1% | home win (4-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United v Manchester City | away win · 51.4% | away win (0-1) | HIT |
| 2026-09-13 | Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | away win · 67.4% | away win (0-5) | HIT |
| 2026-09-12 | Sunderland v Arsenal | away win · 54.5% | away win (0-2) | HIT |
| 2026-09-12 | Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | home win · 45.5% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-12 | Liverpool v Fulham | home win · 66.7% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-12 | Bournemouth v Brentford | home win · 36.3% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-09-12 | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | home win · 61.4% | away win (1-2) | MISS |
| 2026-09-12 | Chelsea v Hull City | away win · 57.0% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-09-12 | Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | home win · 50.7% | away win (2-3) | MISS |
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal v Chelsea | home win · 65.2% | home win (2-1) | HIT |
| 2026-09-06 | Everton v Manchester United | away win · 37.5% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Hull City v Aston Villa | home win · 84.0% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Brentford v Sunderland | home win · 54.7% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Fulham v Crystal Palace | home win · 42.6% | away win (2-3) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester City v Coventry City | home win · 99.0% | home win (1-0) | HIT |
| 2026-09-05 | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | away win · 39.9% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle United v Bournemouth | home win · 65.6% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-09-04 | Ipswich Town v Liverpool | away win · 83.5% | away win (0-2) | HIT |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | away win · 53.1% | away win (0-1) | HIT |
Showing the 60 most recent of 76 graded.
A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.