Picks vs outcomes
Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
How the model's picks actually turned out
Match-result forecasts: the outcome the model gave the most probability to, graded against the official full-time score.
24 graded picks is far too few to say anything about accuracy. These are published so the predictions can be checked, not as evidence that they work.
This model has cleared no preregistered bar and publishes distributions rather than picks — the 'predicted' column is simply its likeliest outcome.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Hull City v Aston Villa | home win · 84.0% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Brentford v Sunderland | home win · 54.7% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Fulham v Crystal Palace | home win · 42.6% | away win (2-3) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester City v Coventry City | home win · 99.0% | home win (1-0) | HIT |
| 2026-09-05 | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | away win · 39.9% | draw (0-0) | MISS |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle United v Bournemouth | home win · 65.6% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-09-04 | Ipswich Town v Liverpool | away win · 83.5% | away win (0-2) | HIT |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | away win · 53.1% | away win (0-1) | HIT |
| 2026-08-30 | Manchester United v Ipswich Town | home win · 61.8% | home win (5-2) | HIT |
| 2026-08-30 | Leeds United v Brentford | away win · 41.0% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-08-30 | Sunderland v Fulham | home win · 42.7% | home win (1-0) | HIT |
| 2026-08-29 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | away win · 42.0% | away win (0-2) | HIT |
| 2026-08-29 | Bournemouth v Everton | home win · 41.5% | draw (1-1) | MISS |
| 2026-08-29 | Coventry City v Hull City | home win · 44.3% | away win (0-1) | MISS |
| 2026-08-29 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | home win · 74.0% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-08-24 | Fulham v Chelsea | away win · 38.1% | away win (2-3) | HIT |
| 2026-08-23 | Newcastle United v Liverpool | home win · 46.6% | draw (2-2) | MISS |
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester City v Bournemouth | home win · 79.1% | home win (2-1) | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | home win · 41.9% | home win (3-0) | HIT |
| 2026-08-22 | Everton v Crystal Palace | away win · 35.6% | home win (2-0) | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Ipswich Town v Sunderland | away win · 58.6% | home win (2-1) | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | home win · 51.7% | away win (0-1) | MISS |
| 2026-08-22 | Hull City v Manchester United | home win · 42.2% | home win (2-0) | HIT |
| 2026-08-21 | Arsenal v Coventry City | home win · 69.1% | home win (3-0) | HIT |
A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.