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Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29
Track record · Ligue 1

Picks vs outcomes

Every Ligue 1 win/draw/win forecast that has since been graded against the official final score. Model-only forecasts for research and entertainment — not betting advice, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.

What is graded

Only the win/draw/win forecast is graded. Each match is graded once, against the last forecast published before kick-off, by log loss — how much probability the forecast gave the result that happened. Over 2.5, both teams to score and the likeliest score are published on the hub but are not graded yet: the rule for grading them has not been decided, so no record is shown for them.

45 matches graded · average log loss 0.8829 (a one-in-three guess scores 1.0986) — accumulating — still a small sample for a three-way market.

Lower log loss is better. These forecasts publish probabilities, not picks, so there is no hit-or-miss count here.

Date (ET)MatchFinalResultForecast gave the resultLog loss
Oct 26, 2026Paris Saint-Germain v Lyon2–0home win60.0%0.5108
Oct 25, 2026Toulouse v Troyes0–0draw20.4%1.5893
Oct 25, 2026Stade Rennais v Strasbourg3–0home win58.2%0.5418
Oct 25, 2026Marseille v Le Havre AC4–3home win66.8%0.4041
Oct 25, 2026AJ Auxerre v Le Mans1–1draw24.9%1.3889
Oct 25, 2026Angers v Lorient0–0draw26.2%1.3401
Oct 25, 2026AS Monaco v Lille1–1draw26.2%1.3407
Oct 24, 2026Lens v Paris FC2–1home win52.8%0.639
Oct 23, 2026Brest v Nice1–2away win31.2%1.1646
Oct 18, 2026Lyon v Nice2–1home win49.4%0.7051
Oct 18, 2026Paris FC v Stade Rennais4–3home win42.8%0.8476
Oct 18, 2026Lorient v AS Monaco1–0home win30.9%1.173
Oct 18, 2026Le Havre AC v AJ Auxerre1–3away win37.1%0.9905
Oct 18, 2026Angers v Marseille2–5away win60.9%0.4963
Oct 17, 2026Troyes v Lens1–3away win64.8%0.4345
Oct 17, 2026Lille v Brest1–1draw20.8%1.5678
Oct 17, 2026Strasbourg v Paris Saint-Germain1–3away win66.6%0.4067
Oct 16, 2026Le Mans v Toulouse0–3away win37.2%0.9884
Oct 11, 2026Troyes v Marseille0–2away win63.3%0.4565
Oct 11, 2026Stade Rennais v AJ Auxerre4–1home win69.4%0.3647
Oct 11, 2026Nice v Strasbourg2–1home win48.6%0.7221
Oct 10, 2026Paris Saint-Germain v Le Mans3–1home win75.4%0.2825
Oct 10, 2026AS Monaco v Toulouse2–2draw23.3%1.4574
Oct 10, 2026Lorient v Paris FC1–0home win38.0%0.9684
Oct 10, 2026Brest v Angers5–1home win61.7%0.4829
Oct 10, 2026Lille v Le Havre AC1–0home win63.1%0.461
Oct 9, 2026Lens v Lyon2–1home win49.4%0.7055
Sep 20, 2026Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain1–2away win55.2%0.5942
Sep 20, 2026Nice v Lille2–1home win34.3%1.0702
Sep 20, 2026AJ Auxerre v Brest2–1home win38.8%0.9465
Sep 19, 2026Toulouse v Le Havre AC3–2home win42.0%0.868
Sep 19, 2026Lyon v Stade Rennais4–0home win49.5%0.7025
Sep 19, 2026Le Mans v Lorient2–1home win50.1%0.691
Sep 19, 2026Angers v Troyes2–0home win37.9%0.9713
Sep 19, 2026Paris FC v Strasbourg2–1home win44.2%0.8159
Sep 18, 2026AS Monaco v Lens2–1home win38.7%0.9498
Sep 13, 2026Brest v Paris Saint-Germain0–1away win65.5%0.4235
Sep 13, 2026Le Mans v Lens2–2draw20.6%1.5812
Sep 13, 2026Lille v Troyes2–0home win76.5%0.2684
Sep 12, 2026Paris FC v Lyon0–0draw22.8%1.4774
Sep 12, 2026Lorient v Toulouse2–2draw25.1%1.3819
Sep 12, 2026Le Havre AC v Angers0–0draw30.0%1.2037
Sep 12, 2026AJ Auxerre v Nice1–0home win32.2%1.1337
Sep 12, 2026Strasbourg v AS Monaco1–1draw23.1%1.4634
Sep 11, 2026Stade Rennais v Marseille1–0home win46.8%0.7599