Track record · NFL

Picks vs outcomes

Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.

Picks vs outcomes · 43 graded

How the model's picks actually turned out

Preseason game forecasts: which side the model favoured, graded against the official final.

Full record →

24 hit · 19 missed2 void — a condition that did not hold is never scored as a miss55.8% hit rate

43 graded picks is still a small sample. A hit rate over this many outcomes has a wide enough margin of error to be consistent with almost any true accuracy.

EXPERIMENTAL. The NFL team model has not cleared a preregistered bar and is not promoted into any paper product. A tie is recorded as void, not a miss.

Date	Event	Model said	What happened	Result
2026-08-29	DET @ IND	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-29	CHI @ TEN	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-28	LAR @ LAC	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-29	CIN @ PHI	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-28	WSH @ BAL	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-28	NYG @ NYJ	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-28	ATL @ MIA	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-29	SEA @ KC		tie	VOID
2026-08-28	TB @ JAX	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-28	HOU @ CAR	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-29	MIN @ DEN	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-29	NO @ DAL	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-29	ARI @ GB	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-27	PIT @ BUF	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-28	NE @ CLE	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-28	LAR @ LAC	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-28	SF @ LV	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-24	SEA @ TEN	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-22	CHI @ CIN	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-22	NO @ LAR	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-22	BAL @ MIN	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-22	NYG @ MIA	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-22	PHI @ NE	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-22	BUF @ CLE	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-22	ATL @ IND	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-22	KC @ TB	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-22	WSH @ DET	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-23	DAL @ ARI	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-16	DAL @ SEA	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-15	MIN @ NYG	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-15	JAX @ NO	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-15	CAR @ BUF	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-15	LAR @ KC	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-15	PHI @ BAL	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-15	CLE @ CHI	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-14	TEN @ SF	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-14	TB @ NYJ	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-14	MIA @ WSH	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-14	DEN @ ATL	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-13	DET @ CIN	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-13	IND @ NE		tie	VOID
2026-08-14	LAC @ HOU	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-13	GB @ PIT	AWAY	HOME	MISS
2026-08-14	ARI @ LV	AWAY	AWAY	HIT
2026-08-14	TEN @ SF	AWAY	AWAY	HIT

A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.