Picks vs outcomes
Every prediction this model has made that has since been graded against an official result. Paper-only and educational — nothing here is a pick or a recommendation to wager, and no stake is filled in anywhere on this site.
How the model's picks actually turned out
Game forecasts: the model-favored team (the higher frozen win probability), graded against the official final. This is historical model-favored winner accuracy, not a record of published picks.
148 graded picks is still a small sample. A hit rate over this many outcomes has a wide enough margin of error to be consistent with almost any true accuracy.
EXPERIMENTAL. The NFL team model has not cleared a preregistered bar and is not promoted into any paper product. A tie is recorded as void, not a miss.
| Date | Event | Model said | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | CAR @ GB | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-26 | DAL @ PHI | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | PIT @ NO | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | IND @ MIN | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | TB @ CAR | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | CIN @ BAL | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE @ TEN | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | MIA @ NYJ | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | SF @ ATL | AWAY | HOME | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | NYG @ HOU | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-25 | DEN @ ARI | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | GB @ DET | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | LAR @ LV | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-25 | KC @ SEA | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-22 | NE @ CHI | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-19 | WSH @ SF | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | HOU @ JAX | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL @ CLE | AWAY | HOME | MISS |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR @ PHI | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI @ ATL | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | NO @ NYG | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ @ NE | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT @ TB | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN @ IND | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI @ LAR | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC @ KC | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF @ LV | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-18 | DAL @ GB | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA @ DEN | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL @ ATL | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF @ LAR | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-11 | PHI @ JAX | AWAY | HOME | MISS |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU @ TEN | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN @ NO | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN @ MIA | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE @ NYJ | AWAY | HOME | MISS |
| 2026-10-11 | IND @ PIT | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | LV @ NE | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | NYG @ WSH | tie | VOID | |
| 2026-10-11 | CHI @ GB | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN @ LAC | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | DET @ ARI | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-11 | SF @ SEA | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-08 | TB @ DAL | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL @ NO | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-04 | ARI @ NYG | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL @ HOU | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-04 | GB @ TB | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX @ CIN | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | LAR @ PHI | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-04 | NE @ BUF | HOME | AWAY | MISS |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ @ CHI | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN @ BAL | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA @ MIN | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN @ SF | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | KC @ LV | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC @ SEA | HOME | HOME | HIT |
| 2026-10-04 | DET @ CAR | AWAY | HOME | MISS |
| 2026-10-04 | IND @ WSH | AWAY | AWAY | HIT |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT @ CLE | AWAY | HOME | MISS |
Showing the 60 most recent of 148 graded.
A hit rate is not a claim about a sportsbook. Being right more often than not and being right more often than the posted price implies are different things, and only the second would say anything about a market. That comparison is tracked separately for each sport and has cleared nothing here.