Ligue 1 match forecasts

Win, draw or win, expected goals, over 2.5, both teams to score and the likeliest scorelines for every Ligue 1 fixture in the next eight days — from the same model as our Premier League page.

Updated Oct 30, 11:58 AM ET · fit on 1,342 Ligue 1 matches

Model-only forecasts for research and entertainment — not betting advice. On a season it had never seen, the sportsbook closing line was more accurate than this model.

Friday, October 30

Le Havre ACvParis Saint-Germain
2:00 PM ET
6% home12.8% draw81.2% away
Expected goals
3.25
Over 2.5
63%
Both score
41.5%
Likeliest score
0–2 (13.7%)
NicevStade Rennais
2:00 PM ET
46.9% home25.7% draw27.4% away
Expected goals
2.61
Over 2.5
48.3%
Both score
51.8%
Likeliest score
1–1 (12.2%)
LillevLens
4:05 PM ET
40.6% home27.1% draw32.3% away
Expected goals
2.47
Over 2.5
44.9%
Both score
50.1%
Likeliest score
1–1 (12.8%)

Saturday, October 31

TroyesvLe Mans
3:45 PM ET
25.1% home21.8% draw53.2% away
Expected goals
3.29
Over 2.5
63.8%
Both score
62.9%
Likeliest score
1–1 (9.7%)
Small-sample input: Le Mans's away rates come from 2 matches. The model treats these tiny splits as fully informative, so this forecast is unusually sensitive to them.

Sunday, November 1

StrasbourgvAJ Auxerre
9:00 AM ET
58% home21.9% draw20.1% away
Expected goals
2.99
Over 2.5
57.5%
Both score
55.7%
Likeliest score
1–1 (10.3%)
LyonvAngers
11:15 AM ET
69.2% home19.3% draw11.5% away
Expected goals
2.76
Over 2.5
52.2%
Both score
44%
Likeliest score
2–0 (13.4%)
Paris FCvAS Monaco
11:15 AM ET
34.1% home22.1% draw43.9% away
Expected goals
3.52
Over 2.5
68.2%
Both score
68.3%
Likeliest score
1–1 (9.1%)
MarseillevToulouse
2:45 PM ET
54% home22.2% draw23.8% away
Expected goals
3.12
Over 2.5
60.2%
Both score
59.6%
Likeliest score
1–1 (10.2%)

Monday, November 2

LorientvBrest
2:45 PM ET
45.9% home23.5% draw30.6% away
Expected goals
3.09
Over 2.5
59.6%
Both score
61.2%
Likeliest score
1–1 (10.7%)

Friday, November 6

ToulousevStrasbourg
2:45 PM ET
35.9% home24.7% draw39.4% away
Expected goals
2.90
Over 2.5
55.5%
Both score
58.6%
Likeliest score
1–1 (11.6%)

Saturday, November 7

AJ AuxerrevParis FC
11:15 AM ET
32.9% home30.5% draw36.6% away
Expected goals
2.03
Over 2.5
33.3%
Both score
40.7%
Likeliest score
0–1 (13.8%)
Paris Saint-GermainvTroyes
2:45 PM ET
87.3% home7.7% draw5% away
Expected goals
5.11
Over 2.5
88.6%
Both score
64.4%
Likeliest score
4–1 (7.2%)

How it’s doing now

45 matches graded · average log loss 0.8829 (a one-in-three guess scores 1.0986) — accumulating — still a small sample for a three-way market.

Only the win/draw/win forecast is graded so far. Over 2.5, both teams to score and the likeliest score are published here but not yet graded.

Every graded Ligue 1 match →

Paris Saint-Germain 2–0 Lyon: the forecast gave the home win 60%.
Toulouse 0–0 Troyes: the forecast gave the draw 20.4%.
AJ Auxerre 1–1 Le Mans: the forecast gave the draw 24.9%.
Angers 0–0 Lorient: the forecast gave the draw 26.2%.
Marseille 4–3 Le Havre AC: the forecast gave the home win 66.8%.

How it was testedIts result on a full season it had never seen, against a no-information guess, a plain rating and the sportsbook closing line.

How this model did on a season it had never seen

Across 306 matches of the 2025-26 season it was more accurate than knowing nothing about the clubs (log loss 1.0127 against 1.0652).
Its draw probabilities were calibrated: stated and observed draw rates differed by 2.7 percentage points on average.
The sportsbook closing line was more accurate than this model, by 0.0372 log loss, and so was a plain Elo rating (by 0.0108).

Model-only forecasts for research and entertainment — not betting advice.

Fixtures: ESPN public scoreboard. Results history: openfootball football.json (results, public domain). Kick-off times in Eastern Time.