Ligue 1 match forecasts

Win, draw or win, expected goals and the likeliest scorelines for every Ligue 1 fixture in the next eight days — from the same model as our Premier League page.

Updated Sep 12, 8:53 AM ET · fit on 1,325 Ligue 1 matches

How this model did on a season it had never seen

Across 306 matches of the 2025-26 season it was more accurate than knowing nothing about the clubs (log loss 1.0127 against 1.0652).
Its draw probabilities were calibrated: stated and observed draw rates differed by 2.7 percentage points on average.
The sportsbook closing line was more accurate than this model, by 0.0372 log loss, and so was a plain Elo rating (by 0.0108).

Model-only forecasts for research and entertainment — not betting advice.

How it’s doing now

1 match graded · average log loss 0.7599 (a one-in-three guess scores 1.0986) — one match — far too few to judge accuracy.

Stade Rennais 1–0 Marseille: the forecast gave the home win 46.8%.

Saturday, September 12

StrasbourgvAS Monaco
11:15 AM ET
36.1% home23.1% draw40.7% away
Expected goals
3.26
Over 2.5
63.3%
Both score
64.6%
Likeliest score
1–1 (10.2%)
AJ AuxerrevNice
2:45 PM ET
32.2% home29.1% draw38.7% away
Expected goals
2.19
Over 2.5
37.4%
Both score
44.1%
Likeliest score
1–1 (13.4%)
Le Havre ACvAngers
2:45 PM ET
41.9% home30% draw28.1% away
Expected goals
2.05
Over 2.5
33.7%
Both score
40.5%
Likeliest score
1–0 (14.9%)
LorientvToulouse
2:45 PM ET
35.7% home25.1% draw39.2% away
Expected goals
2.83
Over 2.5
53.7%
Both score
57.3%
Likeliest score
1–1 (11.8%)
Paris FCvLyon
2:45 PM ET
35.8% home22.8% draw41.4% away
Expected goals
3.34
Over 2.5
64.8%
Both score
65.8%
Likeliest score
1–1 (9.9%)

Sunday, September 13

LillevTroyes
9:00 AM ET
76.5% home13.1% draw10.5% away
Expected goals
4.29
Over 2.5
80.1%
Both score
65.4%
Likeliest score
3–1 (8.1%)
Le MansvLens
11:15 AM ET
24.5% home20.6% draw54.9% away
Expected goals
3.56
Over 2.5
69.1%
Both score
66.7%
Likeliest score
1–2 (9.3%)
Small-sample input: Le Mans's home rates come from 1 match. The model treats these tiny splits as fully informative, so this forecast is unusually sensitive to them.
BrestvParis Saint-Germain
2:45 PM ET
15.1% home19.5% draw65.5% away
Expected goals
3.09
Over 2.5
59.6%
Both score
53.5%
Likeliest score
0–2 (10.6%)

Friday, September 18

AS MonacovLens
2:45 PM ET
38.7% home25.9% draw35.5% away
Expected goals
2.69
Over 2.5
50.4%
Both score
54.7%
Likeliest score
1–1 (12.3%)

Saturday, September 19

Paris FCvStrasbourg
11:15 AM ET
44.2% home22.3% draw33.4% away
Expected goals
3.43
Over 2.5
66.6%
Both score
66.9%
Likeliest score
1–1 (9.5%)
AngersvTroyes
2:45 PM ET
37.9% home22% draw40.1% away
Expected goals
3.58
Over 2.5
69.4%
Both score
69.4%
Likeliest score
1–1 (8.9%)
Le MansvLorient
2:45 PM ET
50.1% home20.2% draw29.6% away
Expected goals
3.94
Over 2.5
75.3%
Both score
73.1%
Likeliest score
2–1 (8.3%)
Small-sample input: Le Mans's home rates come from 1 match. The model treats these tiny splits as fully informative, so this forecast is unusually sensitive to them.
LyonvStade Rennais
2:45 PM ET
49.5% home22.5% draw28% away
Expected goals
3.24
Over 2.5
62.9%
Both score
63%
Likeliest score
1–1 (10%)
ToulousevLe Havre AC
2:45 PM ET
42% home27% draw31% away
Expected goals
2.47
Over 2.5
44.8%
Both score
49.9%
Likeliest score
1–1 (12.8%)

Sunday, September 20

AJ AuxerrevBrest
9:00 AM ET
38.8% home27.8% draw33.4% away
Expected goals
2.37
Over 2.5
42.3%
Both score
48.1%
Likeliest score
1–1 (13.1%)
NicevLille
11:15 AM ET
34.3% home30.7% draw35% away
Expected goals
2.01
Over 2.5
32.7%
Both score
40.3%
Likeliest score
1–1 (13.5%)
MarseillevParis Saint-Germain
2:45 PM ET
23.6% home21.2% draw55.2% away
Expected goals
3.34
Over 2.5
64.8%
Both score
63%
Likeliest score
1–2 (9.6%)

Fixtures: ESPN public scoreboard. Results history: football-data.co.uk (results). Kick-off times in Eastern Time.