Sports projections made simple.

• Line · the number the bookmaker is offering Over/Under.
• Projection · the model's estimate for that player tonight.
• Gap / edge · how much higher or lower the projection is vs. the line, in percentage points.
• Side · Over if the projection is above the line, Under if it's below.

• Stronger signal · clean edge backed by stable recent logs.
• Watch · edge is real but smaller; treat it as a watch-list entry.
• High-variance · the model sees a big gap, but the sample is thin or the projection moves a lot game-to-game. We label it so readers know to be cautious.

• Parlay-slip persistence so candidate slips can be graded with a real hit rate after games settle.
• World Cup projection model — the schedule + groups are already on disk; the model opens before kickoff.
• Wider market coverage on NBA/MLB game lines (moneyline, spreads, totals already shipped for NBA playoff games).

• NBA rebounds — the strongest cohort on record. The model has stable signal on REB projections.
• NBA points + assists — barely above coin flip on a large sample. We surface these projections but treat them as watch-list calls, not high-confidence reads.
• MLB strikeouts — smallest sample of any market we cover and below coin flip so far. The variance profile of pitcher hooks + manager decisions makes this an honest weak spot.
• MLB confidence climbed back into "watch" on the May 22 settlement — High is now 49.7% on 396 settled rows, Medium 50.4% on 141, Low 53.3% on 435. Low is still the best MLB cohort, but only ONE rival now beats High by ≥1.5pp (was both before May 22). The calibration overlay auto-promotes MLB High from a "Needs more tracking" downgrade back to its raw label. The decision rule is pinned by tests — we only invert when ≥ 2 rivals beat by ≥ 1.5pp, so a single best-tier (Low) can't trigger inversion.
• Monte Carlo internal validation — two-date check — May 22 looked promising (MC Strong 62.5%, Watch 65.2% on 311 joins). May 23 reverted to roughly coin flip (Strong 50.0%, Watch 29.4% on 287 joins). Two dates is too small to draw a conclusion. Across both: Strong 56.7% (17-13), Watch 50.0% (20-20), High-variance 50.2% (259-257). Promotion to production scoring is on hold until ≥ 5 dates show consistent separation.
• Curated rail is outperforming parlays meaningfully — across the first 2 days of tracking, single-leg curated picks are 8-4 (66.7% on 12)while multi-leg saved parlays are 6-44 (12.0% on 50). MLB-only curated picks are 5-1 (83.3%). The honest read: selectivity over volume is working; correlation risk is brutal on 4-5 leg slips. We surface both tracks but expect users to weight the curated rail more heavily.
• Curated rail prefers selectivity over volume — the homepage "Tonight's curated projections" rail picks up to six leans per slate by edge × calibration-adjusted confidence × market strength. Inverted (sport, tier) combos are excluded. Better to see six trustworthy reads than 300 of mixed quality. The picks are saved before games via pipeline.snapshot_curated and graded after settlement via pipeline.grade_curated — so the curated rail will eventually carry a real, auditable hit rate of its own.
• Calibration is now derived from the live audit — the confidence overlay reads model_audit.json every render. When the nightly settle adds more data, labels adjust automatically. We fail closed: thin samples stay informational, inverted tiers downgrade, and no tier earns "Stronger signal" without ≥ 100 settled rows and ≥ 57% hit rate.

Numbers are pulled from Results. Sample sizes are still small in absolute terms — anything you read here is a record, not a forecast. No 80%-accuracy claim is made anywhere on the site, and won't be until we run a real out-of-sample backtest.