Daily model hubLive today
Today’s Picks
Sunday, September 6 · paper-only, educationalMLB15 MLB games · 615 model leans
Today’s MLB brief
What to know about MLB today15 games · 14 simulations ready · 1 awaiting inputs
4 games are underway — the simulations shown are the preserved pregame reads, not live predictions.
Simulation spotlightIn progress
TOR @ KCRichest analysis on the slate — 47 player-prop markets simulated. Widest simulated range — Spencer Arrighetti — Strikeouts (line 3.5): 0–7.
What we can show today
All picks →Moneyline14/15 games
Model and sportsbook: 14Not available: 1
Run line14/15 games
Model and sportsbook: 14Not available: 1
Total14/15 games
Model and sportsbook: 14Not available: 1
Sportsbook snapshot captured Sep 6 at 1:05 PM ET · DraftKings
Why some markets are missing (1)
- 1×The simulation this comparison needs has not been produced for this game.
This shows which numbers exist, not which one is right. No MLB market here has been shown to out-predict the sportsbook — treat both sides as reference points.
Today at a glance
Parlay Center · four risk evaluations per lane
Suggested cards by risk tier
Every lane is evaluated at four risk tiers every product day. A tier publishes a card only when enough legs qualify — otherwise it says no play, and that refusal is the product working.
MLBSep 6
Lowno playMediumcardHighno playLongshotcard
Premier LeagueSep 12 · next card
LowcardMediumcardHighcardLongshotno play
Mixed-sportSep 6
Lowno playMediumcardHighcardLongshotno play
UFC closed — only 0 priced games — a four-tier ladder needs at least 4 to build cards that never reuse one · NFL closed — the last price capture is 8.0 days old; only 0 priced games — a four-tier ladder needs at least 4 to build car…
Today’s simulation stories
ranked from today’s simulationsMost decisive matchup
CHC wins 70% of simulationsCHC @ MIA6,980 / 10,000 simulationsClosest simulation
NYM wins 51% of simulationsSF @ NYM5,070 / 10,000 simulationsHighest scoring simulation9 total runs in the median simulationCHC @ MIABiggest player impact
Randy Dobnak OVER 2.5 StrikeoutsKC vs TOR · TOR @ KC8,780 / 10,000 simulations
CHC wins 70% of simulationsCHC @ MIANYM wins 51% of simulationsSF @ NYM9 total runs in the median simulationCHC @ MIAGame predictions
from 10,000-game simulations| Matchup | Time | Moneyline | Score | Total | Run line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ CIN | 12:10 PM ET | — | — | — | — | Open → |
| ATL @ PHI | 1:10 PM ET | ATL 51% | ATL 4–3 PHI | UNDER 8 54% | PHI +1.5 62% | Open → |
| BOS @ BAL | 1:35 PM ET | BOS 54% | BOS 4–3 BAL | OVER 7 45% | BAL +1.5 60% | Open → |
| LAA @ PIT | 1:35 PM ET | PIT 61% | LAA 3–4 PIT | OVER 7 48% | LAA +1.5 59% | Open → |
| DET @ CLE | 1:40 PM ET | CLE 52% | DET 3–3 CLE | UNDER 7 55% | DET +1.5 68% | Open → |
| SF @ NYM | 1:40 PM ET | NYM 51% | SF 3–3 NYM | UNDER 8 59% | SF +1.5 69% | Open → |
| CHC @ MIA | 1:40 PM ET | CHC 70% | CHC 5–3 MIA | OVER 8 52% | CHC -1.5 58% | Open → |
| AZ @ HOU | 2:10 PM ET | AZ 53% | AZ 3–3 HOU | UNDER 8 61% | HOU +1.5 61% | Open → |
| TOR @ KC | 2:10 PM ET | TOR 57% | TOR 4–3 KC | UNDER 9.5 73% | KC +1.5 57% | Open → |
| TB @ TEX | 2:35 PM ET | TEX 54% | TB 3–3 TEX | UNDER 7.5 58% | TB +1.5 65% | Open → |
| STL @ COL | 3:10 PM ET | COL 60% | STL 3–4 COL | UNDER 11 74% | STL +1.5 60% | Open → |
| ATH @ SEA | 4:10 PM ET | ATH 57% | ATH 4–3 SEA | OVER 7 51% | SEA +1.5 57% | Open → |
| NYY @ SD | 4:10 PM ET | SD 51% | NYY 3–3 SD | OVER 7 44% | NYY +1.5 67% | Open → |
| MIN @ CWS | 6:20 PM ET | MIN 66% | MIN 5–3 CWS | UNDER 8.5 54% | MIN -1.5 53% | Open → |
| WSH @ LAD | 10:10 PM ET | LAD 52% | WSH 3–3 LAD | UNDER 8 59% | WSH +1.5 68% | Open → |
Predictions are the simulation’s directional read — not a bet, and not a claim to out-perform the book. Probabilities and distributions are in each game report.
Largest simulated probabilities by market
share of 10,000 simulations · research display, not picksStrikeoutssettled record: model behind market
Hitssettled record: model behind market
Hits + Runs + RBIssettled record: model behind market
Direction = the side the simulation favors (not model-vs-market gap). Ordered by simulated share, a factual sort — the settled record shows our most confident calls are our worst, so nothing here is ranked by trust. Paper-only research · not a bet.
4 chapters · about 20s · nothing to scroll
Simulation-backed games
Open Simulate →Simulation Ready
Athletics @ Seattle MarinersATH @ SEA: 40 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.10,000-run model simulation
Generate Simulation →Simulation Ready
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia PhilliesATL @ PHI: 39 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.10,000-run model simulation
Generate Simulation →Simulation Ready
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston AstrosAZ @ HOU: 35 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.10,000-run model simulation
Generate Simulation →Simulation Ready
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore OriolesBOS @ BAL: 39 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.10,000-run model simulation
Generate Simulation →Simulation Ready
Chicago Cubs @ Miami MarlinsCHC @ MIA: 38 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.10,000-run model simulation
Generate Simulation →Every game on the slate
15 gamesToday's slate is still filling in — 1 game awaiting inputs.
15 games today · 14 simulations ready · 1 awaiting inputs
How these reads are built →Simulations ready
14ATL @ PHIFirst pitch 1:12 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
BOS @ BALFirst pitch 1:35 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
LAA @ PITFirst pitch 1:35 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
DET @ CLEFirst pitch 1:40 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
SF @ NYMFirst pitch 1:40 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
CHC @ MIAFirst pitch 1:41 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
AZ @ HOUFirst pitch 2:10 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
TOR @ KCFirst pitch 2:11 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
TB @ TEXFirst pitch 2:36 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
STL @ COLFirst pitch 3:10 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
ATH @ SEAFirst pitch 4:10 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
NYY @ SDFirst pitch 4:10 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
MIN @ CWSFirst pitch 6:20 PM ET · Started
Simulation readyReview simulation →
WSH @ LADFirst pitch 10:11 PM ET
Simulation readyOpen simulation →
Reports · awaiting inputs
1MIL @ CIN
Game reportOpen report →
Suggested cardsOpen Parlay Center →
Parlay CenterNo cards today
No model-qualified legs cleared today — the builder returns with the next slate.Paper-only — the builder places no exposure and never settles a card for you.The disciplined ladderView Bank Builder →
Bank BuilderActive card
awaiting Step 1 · no active cardOpen exposure $250.00An approved lane is placed as the active paper ladder — settles from official results only.High-variance laneView Moonshot →
MoonshotActive
A high-variance longshot lane is live today — only what is still rolling is ever at risk.Discipline notes
No-play is a decision, not a failure- Pending is not a loss: a card settles only against the official final, and unsettled cards are never counted against the record.
Transparent receiptsReview yesterday’s recap →
Track record19–14
0 pending · 33 settled — every card is graded from official box scores only. Pending cards are never counted as losses, and both wins and losses stay on the page.