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GameTime Picks
Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29

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Regular season · week 8 · Monday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Chicago BearsSeattle SeahawksSaved on this device
Research matchup

51°F · 1 mph wind from the N · 12% chance of rain · mostly cloudy — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Regular season · week 8 · Monday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET · Lumen Field

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Chicago Bears31.5% to win

Projected score

20–26

the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Seattle Seahawks65.5% to win

Seattle Seahawks are the projected winner, 65.5% to win.

About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.

Expected margin

SEA +5

8 in 10 outcomes between -12 and +22

Expected total

46

8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63

Likeliest exact final

CHI 17–20 SEA

0.8% of outcomes — exact scores are rare

Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after

The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

CHI
20 (32% pregame win chance)
SEA
26 (66% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET. It does not change during the game.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

CHI @ SEA

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.

model nfl-regular-season-public-v110,000 simulated gamesproduced Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET

Player projections · expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

What each player is projected to do

Every number here is the official player board's projection, the one Results grade. A statistic marked Estimate has not yet met its calibration standard: its numbers are shown as an estimate, never as a pick. Players listed as Questionable or Doubtful are marked; players ruled out are not projected.

All 20 players on the official board

The headline number is the median for yards and receptions and the chance for a touchdown; the range under it is the 80% range. “—” means no official projection for that statistic.

PlayerTeamPosPass yds (est.)Rush yds (est.)Rec ydsRecAnytime TD
Caleb WilliamsCHIQB235131–38380–35——23.6%
Luther Burden IIICHIWR——5012–1114.01.0–9.026.8%
Colston LovelandCHITE——4110–914.01.0–9.027.0%
Rome OdunzeCHIWR——386–903.01.0–7.016.5%
D'Andre SwiftCHIRB—328–70200–552.00.0–6.066.9%
Kyle MonangaiQuestionableCHIRB—264–65——47.3%
Kalif RaymondCHIWR——210–603.00.0–6.014.9%
Roschon JohnsonCHIRB—50–28——22.1%
Brittain BrownCHIRB————10.2%
Tyson BagentCHIQB————8.1%
Sam DarnoldSEAQB205110–344———4.8%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR——8633–1638.03.0–15.056.0%
Emanuel WilsonSEARB—339–70—1.00.0–3.044.0%
AJ BarnerSEATE——210–573.00.0–6.018.9%
Rashid ShaheedQuestionableSEAWR——180–552.00.0–5.017.5%
Cooper KuppSEAWR——180–572.00.0–5.017.3%
Zach CharbonnetQuestionableSEARB—171–50—1.00.0–3.038.4%
George HolaniSEARB—60–2760–341.00.0–3.021.7%
Tory HortonSEAWR——60–371.00.0–3.09.6%
Velus Jones Jr.QuestionableSEARB—20–21——7.5%

Passing yards and Rushing yards: Estimate · calibration standard not yet met.

Estimate · calibration standard not yet met · The chance of going over a line is not yet well calibrated for this family — read the range, not a precise over/under chance. Evaluation: not cleared on a second review — failed bar: threshold calibration (ECE 0.055 vs 0.05); beats both baselines on typical miss.

  1. Caleb Williams
    Caleb WilliamsCHI vs SEA
    235yds80%: 131–383
  2. Sam Darnold
    Sam DarnoldSEA vs CHI
    205yds80%: 110–344

Projected = the official player board's median passing yards; 80% of outcomes fall in the range shown · Official player board · as of 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (5)
  • Tyson Bagent CHI — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
  • Cole Kmet CHI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
  • Case Keenum CHI — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
  • Jadarian Price SEA — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
  • Drew Lock SEA — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.

Supporting simulation (not the official projection · not graded)

Simulated game outcomes

10,000 simulated games. The official win chance, score and player projections are the ones above; these simulated games are a supporting view.

Technical detailsSimulation engine version and the forecast input it was built from.

World Model V2 2.2.0 · forecast input 319a691b988f1f47

Who won the simulated games

CHI 34.6% · SEA 65.2% · went to overtime 2.7% · still tied after overtime 0.2%

This share (CHI 34.6% · SEA 65.2%) is counted from the simulated games, which draw the score from the forecast's margin and total and play overtime, so most games level after regulation are given to a side. The headline win chance (CHI 31.5% · SEA 65.5%) comes from a separate team rating and leaves the 2.9% chance of a tie after regulation unallocated, so the two differ by 3.1 points for CHI and 0.3 points for SEA.

SEA margin

median +5 · 8 in 10 between -11 and +21

≤-28
-24
1
2
-18
3
4
-12
6
7
-6
9
6
0
10
9
+6
9
8
+12
6
6
+18
4
3
+24
5
≥+27

Share of simulated games by SEA margin, in 3-point bands; a minus means CHI won.

Total points

median 46 · 8 in 10 between 29 and 63

6
≤24
6
9
30
12
14
40
15
13
50
11
7
60
4
2
70
2
≥75

Share of simulated games by combined points, in 5-point bands.

How each team scored, on average

Per gameCHISEA
Points (median, 80% range)20 (8–32)26 (13–37)
Touchdowns2.22.8
Field goals1.71.9
Passing yards243235
Rushing yards126106

Supporting simulation (not the official projection · not graded) · simulated game explorer

Five of the simulated games, as they were generated

Game #7,240 of 10,000 · Middle of the pack

CHI 25–30 SEA SEA win

CHI 25: 2 TD, 4 FG, 1 XP · 21/33 passing for 270 yds · 33 carries for 145 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Roschon JohnsonRoschon Johnson RB6-19
D'Andre SwiftD'Andre Swift RB11-501-6
Caleb WilliamsCaleb Williams QB21/33, 2701-41 rush
Rome OdunzeRome Odunze WR3-40
Colston LovelandColston Loveland TE2-13
Kyle MonangaiKyle Monangai RB9-554-391 rush
Luther Burden IIILuther Burden III WR1-17-146
Kalif RaymondKalif Raymond WR3-14
Sam RoushSam Roush TE1-12
Zavion ThomasZavion Thomas WR5-16

SEA 30: 3 TD, 3 FG, 3 XP · 13/24 passing for 148 yds · 15 carries for 45 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-Njigba WR1-04-952 rec
Zach CharbonnetZach Charbonnet RB6-180-0
AJ BarnerAJ Barner TE2-20
George HolaniGeorge Holani RB1-16
Cooper KuppCooper Kupp WR3-8
Sam DarnoldSam Darnold QB13/24, 1482-62 pass
Tory HortonTory Horton WR1-4
Rashid ShaheedRashid Shaheed WR2-5
Emanuel WilsonEmanuel Wilson RB6-211 rush

A real game from this run, shown as generated. Plays by players outside the named group count in the team line only. Who scored in one game is not a touchdown probability.

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (CHI – SEA)Chance
17–200.79%
20–170.70%
24–270.68%
27–240.65%
17–270.64%
20–230.60%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

MarginThis gameLast 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 39.9%14.2%
Decided by exactly 76.8%8.3%
Decided by exactly 105.7%4.2%
Decided by exactly 144.9%4.4%
Any of the four27.3%31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

CHI touchdowns
2.3
SEA touchdowns
2.8
CHI field goals
1.6
SEA field goals
1.9
Tied after regulation
3.5%
Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Methodology

How these numbers are made

Sources, versions, timestamps and evaluation status
NumberModelVersion / runProduced
Win chance, projected score, margin, totalGame Time Forecastnfl-regular-season-public-v1 · input 319a691b988f1f47Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Passing / rushing / receiving yards, receptions (official)Official player boardsnapshot d4a19b0a6344Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Anytime touchdown (official)Touchdown model (official player board)opportunity modelOct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Simulated outcomes and sampled games: supporting simulation, not the official projection, not gradedWorld Model V22.2.0 · run 5504bd49bc443492 · 10,000 games · input 319a691b988f1f47Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET

The Game Time Forecast rates both teams from past results and play efficiency and produces the win chance and the score centre. Player projections are the official player board's, the numbers Results grade. As a supporting view, World Model V2 simulates 10,000 complete games: each one draws a final score around that centre, splits it into touchdowns, kicks and safeties, and hands passes and carries to the players expected to be active. Its numbers are not the official projection and are not graded. From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Until kickoff a later run may update these numbers when an input changes (each version is kept); at kickoff the last version is frozen.

Supporting simulation inputs as of: forecast Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET · injuries Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET · rosters Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET · player history through the last completed week (2026-week08-20261030T0038Z.json).

Quarterbacks: CHI Caleb Williams · SEA Sam Darnold (depth chart; the first quarterback not ruled out throws).

Tested on past seasonsYesplayer receptions, receiving / rushing / passing yards from game worlds: development look cleared for a private forward test (2022–2025)
Frozen before kickoff and recordedYesWeek 5 2026 candidates frozen before kickoff (private captures 2026-10-08T18:21Z, T18:27Z)
Graded on games played sinceNot yetno graded forward sample yet
Eligible for picks productsNot yetneeds forward evaluation against the preregistered bars
Promoted as the official forecastNot yetthe published game forecast remains the forecast of record

Results: Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Not published:

  • anytime td: Touchdown scorer probabilities from these worlds failed their evaluation (log loss 0.5138 vs 0.5109 for the red-zone model; calibration error 0.034). Diagnosis: a scorer must touch the ball in the same world, which double-counts opportunity and moves touchdowns from part-time to every-down players. Not published as probabilities; anytime-touchdown chances shown on the site come from the separate touchdown model.
  • passing td: Passing touchdowns are credited to the passer in every world, but no evaluation of passing-touchdown distributions exists. Not published as probabilities.
  • interceptions, sacks, kicking and defensive player stats: Not simulated.
  • First touchdown scorer: needs the order of scoring plays, which the simulated games do not record.

Known limitations:

  • Scores come from the published margin and total heads; they do not see injuries or who plays quarterback.
  • Simulated final scores do not cluster on 3- and 7-point margins the way real NFL scores do, so exact-score frequencies from these games are not published.
  • The win chance here is counted from these simulated games and can differ from the published win chance, which comes from a separate rating.
  • Overtime outcomes are drawn from the 2017–2025 record, not simulated play by play.
  • Player volume does not yet adjust to an opposing defense beyond the team-level volume fit.
  • Red-zone history ends with 2025; 2026 games add no red-zone evidence.
  • Plays by players outside the named active set are counted in team totals only.

Availability used: Kyle Monangai (CHI, Questionable, simulated as playing); Zach Charbonnet (SEA, Questionable, simulated as playing); Drew Lock (SEA, Questionable, simulated as playing); Rashid Shaheed (SEA, Questionable, simulated as playing); Velus Jones Jr. (SEA, Questionable, simulated as playing).

20,000 simulated team-games checked for consistency, 0 inconsistent.

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast

See 10,000 coherent simulated games of this matchup

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score
The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance
The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
80% range
Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points)
The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Official Forecast
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.

Where this came from

model
nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations
10,000
input hash
319a691b988f1f47
generated
kickoff
state
UPCOMING
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
  • Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
  • Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1129 graded player-games).
  • Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1480 graded player-games).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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