Skip to main content
Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29

← NFL hub

Regular season · week 8 · Thursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET · final

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Carolina PanthersGreen Bay PackersSaved on this device
Research matchup

51°F · 6 mph wind from the WNW · 0% chance of rain · clear — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

This game has kicked off. Everything below is exactly what was published before kickoff and has not been changed since — that is the point of keeping it.

What happened · official box score

Final: CAR 19 – 27 GB

The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 30, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
CAR373619
GB6147027

Carolina Panthers · 19

PlayerPass ydsRush ydsRecRec ydsTD
Bryce Young209Forecast 230 (128–376) · in range0Forecast 1 (0–20) · in range00NoForecast 8.1%
Chuba Hubbard081Forecast 50 (17–97) · in range7Forecast 2 (0–5) · outside range38Forecast 12 (0–43) · in rangeYesForecast 54.9%
Tetairoa McMillan006Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range58Forecast 51 (13–112) · in rangeNoForecast 34.2%
Jalen Coker002Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range36Forecast 41 (8–94) · in rangeYesForecast 31.9%
Mitchell Evans00222No
Tommy Tremble001Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range19Forecast 13 (0–45) · in rangeNoForecast 17.6%
John Metchie III003Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range14Forecast 13 (0–47) · in rangeNoForecast 16.1%
Brycen Tremayne00111No
Darren Waller001Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range11Forecast 15 (0–52) · in rangeNoForecast 20.8%
Trevor Etienne01Forecast 5 (0–25) · in range00NoForecast 14.1%
Anthony Tyus III0000NoForecast 6.2%
Jonathon BrooksNo line in the official box score——Forecast 9 (0–36)———Forecast 21.1%
Xavier LegetteNo line in the official box score———Forecast 2 (0–4)—Forecast 13 (0–51)—Forecast 15.5%
Player lines added up2098223209

25 other Carolina Panthers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.

Green Bay Packers · 27

PlayerPass ydsRush ydsRecRec ydsTD
Jordan Love288Forecast 239 (135–388) · in range000NoForecast 5.9%
Christian Watson008Forecast 3.5 (0.9–7) · outside range113Forecast 32 (1–86) · outside rangeNoForecast 39.5%
Matthew Golden007Forecast 4.4 (0.9–7.9) · in range79Forecast 33 (3–84) · in rangeYesForecast 34.9%
Tucker Kraft006Forecast 3.5 (0.9–7) · in range53Forecast 21 (0–60) · in rangeYesForecast 27.9%
Josh Jacobs039Forecast 29 (8–66) · in range6Forecast 2.6 (0.9–5.3) · outside range13Forecast 11 (0–42) · in rangeYesForecast 46.4%
Savion Williams0181Forecast 0.9 (0–3.5) · in range5NoForecast 13.9%
J. Michael Sturdivant00116No
MarShawn Lloyd07Forecast 16 (2–41) · in range1Forecast 0.9 (0–2.6) · in range9NoForecast 31.5%
Pierre Strong Jr.02Forecast 12 (0–38) · in range0Forecast 1.8 (0–3.5) · in range0Forecast 13 (0–45) · in rangeNoForecast 21.9%
Chris BrooksNo line in the official box score——Forecast 5 (0–30)———Forecast 13.5%
Jayden ReedNo line in the official box score———Forecast 1.8 (0–4.4)—Forecast 10 (0–40)—Forecast 16.8%
Luke MusgraveNo line in the official box score———Forecast 0.9 (0–2.6)—Forecast 6 (0–35)—Forecast 10.5%
Tyrod TaylorNo line in the official box score—————Forecast 5.3%
Player lines added up2886630288

24 other Green Bay Packers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.

Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 8 is on the NFL week report.

Started · not saveable

Regular season · week 8 · Thursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Carolina Panthers33.5% to win

Pregame projection

20–26

the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Green Bay Packers63.8% to win

Green Bay Packers were the projected winner, 63.8% to win.

About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.

Expected margin

GB +6

8 in 10 outcomes between -11 and +22

Expected total

46

8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63

Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after

The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

No simulation story for this event: No NFL event with a published simulation for this date.

Player projections · expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

What each player is projected to do

Every number here is the official player board's projection, the one Results grade. A statistic marked Estimate has not yet met its calibration standard: its numbers are shown as an estimate, never as a pick. Players listed as Questionable or Doubtful are marked; players ruled out are not projected.

All 23 players on the official board

The headline number is the median for yards and receptions and the chance for a touchdown; the range under it is the 80% range. “—” means no official projection for that statistic.

PlayerTeamPosPass yds (est.)Rush yds (est.)Rec ydsRecAnytime TD
Bryce YoungCARQB230128–37610–20——8.1%
Tetairoa McMillanCARWR——5113–1125.02.0–10.034.2%
Chuba HubbardCARRB—5017–97120–432.00.0–5.054.9%
Jalen CokerCARWR——418–944.01.0–9.031.9%
Darren WallerCARTE——150–522.00.0–5.020.8%
Xavier LegetteCARWR——130–512.00.0–4.015.5%
Tommy TrembleCARTE——130–452.00.0–5.017.6%
John Metchie IIICARWR——130–472.00.0–4.016.1%
Jonathon BrooksCARRB—90–36——21.1%
Trevor EtienneCARRB—50–25——14.1%
Anthony Tyus IIICARRB————6.2%
Jordan LoveGBQB239135–388———5.9%
Matthew GoldenGBWR——333–844.40.9–7.934.9%
Christian WatsonGBWR——321–863.50.9–7.039.5%
Josh JacobsGBRB—298–66110–422.60.9–5.346.4%
Tucker KraftGBTE——210–603.50.9–7.027.9%
MarShawn LloydGBRB—162–41—0.90.0–2.631.5%
Pierre Strong Jr.GBRB—120–38130–451.80.0–3.521.9%
Jayden ReedGBWR——100–401.80.0–4.416.8%
Luke MusgraveGBTE——60–350.90.0–2.610.5%
Chris BrooksGBRB—50–30——13.5%
Savion WilliamsGBWR———0.90.0–3.513.9%
Tyrod TaylorGBQB————5.3%

Passing yards and Rushing yards: Estimate · calibration standard not yet met.

Estimate · calibration standard not yet met · The chance of going over a line is not yet well calibrated for this family — read the range, not a precise over/under chance. Evaluation: not cleared on a second review — failed bar: threshold calibration (ECE 0.055 vs 0.05); beats both baselines on typical miss.

  1. Jordan Love
    Jordan LoveGB vs CAR
    239yds80%: 135–388
  2. Bryce Young
    Bryce YoungCAR vs GB
    230yds80%: 128–376

Projected = the official player board's median passing yards; 80% of outcomes fall in the range shown · Official player board · as of 2026-10-29 23:45 UTC

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
  • AJ Dillon CAR — Not playing: Listed Out.
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR — Not playing: Listed Out.
  • Kaleb Johnson GB — Not playing: Listed Out.
  • Skyy Moore GB — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.

Supporting simulation (not the official projection · not graded)

Simulated game outcomes

10,000 simulated games. The official win chance, score and player projections are the ones above; these simulated games are a supporting view.

Technical detailsSimulation engine version and the forecast input it was built from.

World Model V2 2.2.0 · forecast input d045a1dd80cf2498

Who won the simulated games

CAR 32.1% · GB 67.7% · went to overtime 2.7% · still tied after overtime 0.2%

This share (CAR 32.1% · GB 67.7%) is counted from the simulated games, which draw the score from the forecast's margin and total and play overtime, so most games level after regulation are given to a side. The headline win chance (CAR 33.5% · GB 63.8%) comes from a separate team rating and leaves the 2.7% chance of a tie after regulation unallocated, so the two differ by 1.4 points for CAR and 3.9 points for GB.

GB margin

median +6 · 8 in 10 between -11 and +22

≤-28
-24
1
2
-18
3
4
-12
5
7
-6
8
6
0
10
10
+6
8
8
+12
7
6
+18
5
3
+24
5
≥+27

Share of simulated games by GB margin, in 3-point bands; a minus means CAR won.

Total points

median 46 · 8 in 10 between 29 and 63

5
≤24
6
9
30
12
14
40
15
13
50
11
7
60
4
2
70
2
≥75

Share of simulated games by combined points, in 5-point bands.

How each team scored, on average

Per gameCARGB
Points (median, 80% range)20 (8–32)26 (14–38)
Touchdowns2.12.9
Field goals1.71.9
Passing yards253259
Rushing yards11194

Supporting simulation (not the official projection · not graded) · simulated game explorer

Five of the simulated games, as they were generated

Game #3,546 of 10,000 · Middle of the pack

CAR 32–38 GB GB win

CAR 32: 3 TD, 3 FG, 3 XP, 1 safety · 17/27 passing for 135 yds · 37 carries for 167 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Chuba HubbardChuba Hubbard RB22-943-211 rush
Tommy TrembleTommy Tremble TE0-0
Bryce YoungBryce Young QB17/27, 1352 pass
David MooreDavid Moore WR1-16
Jalen CokerJalen Coker WR2-43
Tetairoa McMillanTetairoa McMillan WR3-72 rec
Mitchell EvansMitchell Evans TE4-30
Trevor EtienneTrevor Etienne RB13-471-4
Darren WallerDarren Waller TE1-6
Kenny PickettKenny Pickett QB2-26
John Metchie IIIJohn Metchie III WR2-7

GB 38: 5 TD (2 by defense or special teams), 1 FG, 5 XP · 18/36 passing for 243 yds · 22 carries for 115 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Jordan LoveJordan Love QB18/36, 2432 pass
Christian WatsonChristian Watson WR6-952 rec
Tucker KraftTucker Kraft TE2-18
Josh JacobsJosh Jacobs RB6-270-01 rush
MarShawn LloydMarShawn Lloyd RB8-411-10
Matthew GoldenMatthew Golden WR7-92
Mark RedmanMark Redman TE1-19
Tyrod TaylorTyrod Taylor QB2-2
Pierre Strong Jr.Pierre Strong Jr. RB5-421-9

A real game from this run, shown as generated. Plays by players outside the named group count in the team line only. Who scored in one game is not a touchdown probability.

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Methodology

How these numbers are made

Sources, versions, timestamps and evaluation status
NumberModelVersion / runProduced
Win chance, projected score, margin, totalGame Time Forecastnfl-regular-season-public-v1 · input d045a1dd80cf2498Oct 29, 12:04 PM ET
Passing / rushing / receiving yards, receptions (official)Official player boardsnapshot f6fccaa46511Oct 29, 7:45 PM ET
Anytime touchdown (official)Touchdown model (official player board)opportunity modelOct 29, 7:45 PM ET
Simulated outcomes and sampled games: supporting simulation, not the official projection, not gradedWorld Model V22.2.0 · run df1c84b3f3991fff · 10,000 games · input d045a1dd80cf2498Oct 29, 7:07 PM ET

The Game Time Forecast rates both teams from past results and play efficiency and produces the win chance and the score centre. Player projections are the official player board's, the numbers Results grade. As a supporting view, World Model V2 simulates 10,000 complete games: each one draws a final score around that centre, splits it into touchdowns, kicks and safeties, and hands passes and carries to the players expected to be active. Its numbers are not the official projection and are not graded. From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. This game has kicked off: everything shown is the last version produced before kickoff.

Supporting simulation inputs as of: forecast Oct 29, 12:04 PM ET · injuries Oct 29, 7:07 PM ET · rosters Oct 29, 7:07 PM ET · player history through the last completed week (2026-week08-20261027T1935Z.json).

Quarterbacks: CAR Bryce Young · GB Jordan Love (depth chart; the first quarterback not ruled out throws).

Tested on past seasonsYesplayer receptions, receiving / rushing / passing yards from game worlds: development look cleared for a private forward test (2022–2025)
Frozen before kickoff and recordedYesWeek 5 2026 candidates frozen before kickoff (private captures 2026-10-08T18:21Z, T18:27Z)
Graded on games played sinceNot yetno graded forward sample yet
Eligible for picks productsNot yetneeds forward evaluation against the preregistered bars
Promoted as the official forecastNot yetthe published game forecast remains the forecast of record

Results: Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Not published:

  • anytime td: Touchdown scorer probabilities from these worlds failed their evaluation (log loss 0.5138 vs 0.5109 for the red-zone model; calibration error 0.034). Diagnosis: a scorer must touch the ball in the same world, which double-counts opportunity and moves touchdowns from part-time to every-down players. Not published as probabilities; anytime-touchdown chances shown on the site come from the separate touchdown model.
  • passing td: Passing touchdowns are credited to the passer in every world, but no evaluation of passing-touchdown distributions exists. Not published as probabilities.
  • interceptions, sacks, kicking and defensive player stats: Not simulated.
  • First touchdown scorer: needs the order of scoring plays, which the simulated games do not record.

Known limitations:

  • Scores come from the published margin and total heads; they do not see injuries or who plays quarterback.
  • Simulated final scores do not cluster on 3- and 7-point margins the way real NFL scores do, so exact-score frequencies from these games are not published.
  • The win chance here is counted from these simulated games and can differ from the published win chance, which comes from a separate rating.
  • Overtime outcomes are drawn from the 2017–2025 record, not simulated play by play.
  • Player volume does not yet adjust to an opposing defense beyond the team-level volume fit.
  • Red-zone history ends with 2025; 2026 games add no red-zone evidence.
  • Plays by players outside the named active set are counted in team totals only.

Availability used: Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR, Out, not simulated); AJ Dillon (CAR, Out, not simulated); Jonnu Smith (GB, Out, not simulated); Kaleb Johnson (GB, Out, not simulated).

20,000 simulated team-games checked for consistency, 0 inconsistent.

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast

See 10,000 coherent simulated games of this matchup

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score
The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance
The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
80% range
Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points)
The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Official Forecast
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.

Where this came from

model
nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations
10,000
input hash
d045a1dd80cf2498
generated
kickoff
state
STARTED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
  • Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
  • Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1129 graded player-games).
  • Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1480 graded player-games).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other games with a simulation