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NFL · CAR @ GB · Simulation

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

CAR 20 — 26 GB · win chance CAR 33.5% · GB 63.8% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

34.2%CAR win in the simulated games

65.4%GB win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

CAR 20 – 26 GBmedian score · averages 20.27 – 25.8

46median total · 80% of games 30–63

GB by 6median margin · 80% range: CAR by 12 to GB by 23

42.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: GB points minus CAR points (below 0 means CAR won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (6). Range shown -45 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 8 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CAR	9	20	32	20.27
GB	13	26	38	25.8

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CAR median (80%)	GB median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CAR wins it	GB wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	34.4%	47.9%	17.7%
Q2	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	35.2%	52.3%	12.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–18)	33.8%	48.0%	18.2%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	12 (3–21)	33.7%	49.4%	17.0%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–23)	23 (13–35)	35.9%	57.5%	6.6%
2nd half	10 (0–18)	13 (3–21)	21 (10–35)	35.0%	56.8%	8.2%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CAR	GB
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–42)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	208 (124–303)	225 (138–322)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	107 (50–187)	120 (61–204)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CAR	8.8%	24.4%	30.4%	22.9%	9.7%	3.7%
GB	3.4%	14.6%	25.3%	27.7%	17.9%	11.1%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bryce Young QB	31 (23–41)	21 (14–28)	191 (112–284)	1.2	0.9

CAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Chuba Hubbard RB	11 (6–16)	46 (14–99)	0.4
Bryce Young QB	4 (1–6)	13 (1–43)	0.1
Jonathon Brooks RB	3 (1–6)	9 (0–36)	0.1
AJ Dillon RB	3 (1–6)	8 (0–33)	0.1

CAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tetairoa McMillan WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–8)	40 (8–90)	0.3
Jalen Coker WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	32 (5–78)	0.2
Darren Waller TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–43)	0.1
Xavier Legette WR	3 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–43)	0.1
Tommy Tremble TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–41)	0.1
Chuba Hubbard RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–39)	0.1

GB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jordan Love QB	30 (22–38)	20 (14–26)	202 (119–295)	1.6	0.6

GB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Josh Jacobs RB	7 (4–12)	30 (7–74)	0.3
MarShawn Lloyd RB	5 (2–9)	16 (2–49)	0.2
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	4 (1–7)	13 (1–42)	0.2
Kaleb Johnson RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–40)	0.1

GB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Matthew Golden WR	6 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	33 (4–82)	0.3
Christian Watson WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	31 (4–80)	0.3
Tucker Kraft TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–64)	0.2
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–48)	0.1
Josh Jacobs RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–46)	0.1
Jayden Reed WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–45)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Chuba Hubbard RB	CAR	38.5%	7.2%	9.2%
Josh Jacobs RB	GB	36.6%	7.3%	8.9%
Matthew Golden WR	GB	28.3%	3.9%	6.6%
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	GB	27.1%	3.7%	6.5%
MarShawn Lloyd RB	GB	25.4%	3.4%	6.0%
Christian Watson WR	GB	23.9%	2.9%	5.5%
Tetairoa McMillan WR	CAR	23.8%	2.9%	5.4%
Jalen Coker WR	CAR	21.9%	2.3%	4.9%
Tucker Kraft TE	GB	19.9%	1.8%	4.9%
Jonathon Brooks RB	CAR	14.1%	0.9%	3.0%
Kaleb Johnson RB	GB	14.1%	1.0%	3.1%
Jayden Reed WR	GB	13.4%	1.2%	2.9%
Chris Brooks RB	GB	12.0%	0.7%	2.5%
AJ Dillon RB	CAR	11.5%	0.7%	2.5%
Savion Williams WR	GB	10.8%	0.5%	2.1%
Xavier Legette WR	CAR	10.4%	0.5%	2.1%

First touchdown by team: CAR 42.1% · GB 57.6% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CAR 20 – 26 GB

By quarter: CAR 0 / 10 / 0 / 10 · GB 7 / 3 / 6 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CAR–GB)
1	GB	82	td	9	82	0–7
1	CAR	36	punt	3	0	0–7
1	GB	99	punt	6	24	0–7
1	CAR	62	downs	4	41	0–7
1	GB	79	punt	3	6	0–7
1	CAR	65	turnover	1	47	0–7
1	GB	99	punt	3	16	0–7
1	CAR	52	fg	12	49	3–7
2	GB	71	turnover	7	18	3–7
2	CAR	77	td	6	77	10–7
2	GB	65	punt	3	6	10–7
2	CAR	84	punt	3	33	10–7
2	GB	88	fg	9	72	10–10
2	CAR	65	punt	6	8	10–10
3	GB	92	td	14	92	10–16
3	CAR	66	punt	3	1	10–16
3	GB	95	punt	3	-1	10–16
3	CAR	32	td	12	32	17–16
4	GB	65	fg	5	55	17–19
4	CAR	65	fg	5	28	20–19
4	GB	65	td	8	65	20–26
4	CAR	65	turnover	8	4	20–26
4	GB	17	end half	3	-2	20–26

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CAR 28 – 34 GB

By quarter: CAR 8 / 14 / 3 / 3 · GB 7 / 17 / 3 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CAR–GB)
1	GB	60	punt	3	3	0–0
1	CAR	89	td	11	89	8–0
1	GB	80	td	6	80	8–7
1	CAR	69	turnover	7	2	8–7
1	GB	29	fg	6	20	8–10
2	CAR	65	td	1	65	15–10
2	GB	70	td	10	70	15–17
2	CAR	66	td	7	66	22–17
2	GB	74	td	3	74	22–24
2	CAR	72	punt	5	4	22–24
2	GB	60	fg miss	6	33	22–24
2	CAR	69	punt	3	-5	22–24
3	GB	63	fg	11	54	22–27
3	CAR	89	punt	3	41	22–27
3	GB	99	punt	3	27	22–27
3	CAR	62	fg	5	48	25–27
3	GB	65	td	14	65	25–34
4	CAR	65	fg	8	25	28–34
4	GB	54	end half	2	14	28–34

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CAR 12 – 18 GB

By quarter: CAR 3 / 3 / 0 / 6 · GB 0 / 3 / 8 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CAR–GB)
1	CAR	63	fg	8	54	3–0
1	GB	77	punt	3	5	3–0
1	CAR	71	punt	3	16	3–0
1	GB	90	turnover	3	2	3–0
1	CAR	12	fg miss	6	11	3–0
1	GB	91	punt	3	8	3–0
1	CAR	18	fg	9	3	6–0
2	GB	67	punt	5	7	6–0
2	CAR	87	punt	3	1	6–0
2	GB	30	fg	5	14	6–3
2	CAR	74	punt	5	3	6–3
2	GB	49	downs	4	41	6–3
2	CAR	92	end half	3	-3	6–3
2	GB	73	td	13	73	6–11
3	CAR	66	punt	3	19	6–11
3	GB	96	punt	6	8	6–11
3	CAR	69	punt	3	16	6–11
3	GB	79	punt	3	7	6–11
3	CAR	67	punt	7	-1	6–11
4	GB	65	td	15	65	6–18
4	CAR	67	td	9	67	12–18

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 29, 3:49 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
Seed	79dfab71 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 6 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means GB 26.07 / CAR 20.1
Availability	injuries as of Oct 29, 3:47 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 29, 3:47 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873023:1b5501fc269b3377

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.