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GameTime Picks
Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29

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Regular season · week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsSaved on this device
Research matchup

79°F · 14 mph wind from the E · 89% chance of rain · showers and thunderstorms — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Regular season · week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots70.9% to win

Projected score

24–20

the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Miami Dolphins26.2% to win

New England Patriots are the projected winner, 70.9% to win.

About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.

Expected margin

MIA -4

8 in 10 outcomes between -20 and +13

Expected total

44

8 in 10 outcomes between 27 and 61

Likeliest exact final

NE 20–17 MIA

0.8% of outcomes — exact scores are rare

Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after

The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

NE
24 (71% pregame win chance)
MIA
20 (26% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET. It does not change during the game.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

NE @ MIA

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

model nfl-regular-season-public-v110,000 simulated gamesproduced Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET

Player projections · expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

What each player is projected to do

Every number here is the official player board's projection, the one Results grade. A statistic marked Estimate has not yet met its calibration standard: its numbers are shown as an estimate, never as a pick. Players listed as Questionable or Doubtful are marked; players ruled out are not projected.

All 23 players on the official board

The headline number is the median for yards and receptions and the chance for a touchdown; the range under it is the 80% range. “—” means no official projection for that statistic.

PlayerTeamPosPass yds (est.)Rush yds (est.)Rec ydsRecAnytime TD
Drake MayeNEQB244133–404181–54——18.2%
Rhamondre StevensonNERB—319–69180–542.00.0–5.039.6%
Hunter HenryNETE——303–763.01.0–7.028.1%
Mack HollinsNEWR——302–773.01.0–7.022.9%
A.J. BrownQuestionableNEWR——293–734.01.0–8.030.0%
DeMario DouglasNEWR——261–693.01.0–7.029.8%
TreVeyon HendersonQuestionableNERB—244–58——24.3%
Corey KinerNERB—151–47——12.9%
Eli RaridonNETE——150–532.00.0–5.019.4%
Efton Chism IIINEWR——80–391.00.0–3.013.5%
Reggie GilliamNEFB——60–36——
Kyle WilliamsNEWR———1.00.0–3.010.9%
Malik WillisMIAQB19499–336150–53——26.0%
De'Von AchaneMIARB—3811–83180–553.00.0–6.043.0%
Malik WashingtonQuestionableMIAWR——377–864.01.0–9.023.8%
Ollie Gordon IIMIARB—349–77—1.00.0–3.045.8%
Greg DulcichQuestionableMIATE——314–783.01.0–7.014.4%
Caleb DouglasMIAWR——290–793.01.0–7.023.4%
Chris BellMIAWR——170–532.00.0–5.013.8%
Kevin Coleman Jr.MIAWR——150–482.00.0–4.015.5%
DJ HermanMIAFB——110–44——
Jaylen WrightMIARB—70–29——15.3%
Will KacmarekQuestionableMIATE——60–35——

Passing yards and Rushing yards: Estimate · calibration standard not yet met.

Estimate · calibration standard not yet met · The chance of going over a line is not yet well calibrated for this family — read the range, not a precise over/under chance. Evaluation: not cleared on a second review — failed bar: threshold calibration (ECE 0.055 vs 0.05); beats both baselines on typical miss.

  1. Drake Maye
    Drake MayeNE vs MIA
    244yds80%: 133–404
  2. Malik Willis
    Malik WillisMIA vs NE
    194yds80%: 99–336

Projected = the official player board's median passing yards; 80% of outcomes fall in the range shown · Official player board · as of 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (3)
  • Romeo Doubs NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
  • Lan Larison NE — Left the roster: not on NE's current roster.
  • Brady Cook MIA — Role not yet observed: no game for MIA yet this season — role at MIA not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 8 games for NYJ, 7.1 rush yds · 121.8 pass yds per game.

Supporting simulation (not the official projection · not graded)

Simulated game outcomes

10,000 simulated games. The official win chance, score and player projections are the ones above; these simulated games are a supporting view.

Technical detailsSimulation engine version and the forecast input it was built from.

World Model V2 2.2.0 · forecast input 100db6628db2b95c

Who won the simulated games

NE 61.5% · MIA 38.3% · went to overtime 2.7% · still tied after overtime 0.2%

This share (NE 61.5% · MIA 38.3%) is counted from the simulated games, which draw the score from the forecast's margin and total and play overtime, so most games level after regulation are given to a side. The headline win chance (NE 70.9% · MIA 26.2%) comes from a separate team rating and leaves the 2.9% chance of a tie after regulation unallocated, so the two differ by 9.4 points for NE and 12.1 points for MIA.

MIA margin

median -4 · 8 in 10 between -21 and +13

3
≤-28
2
3
-24
4
5
-18
7
8
-12
9
9
-6
10
6
0
8
7
+6
5
4
+12
3
2
+18
1
+24
1
≥+27

Share of simulated games by MIA margin, in 3-point bands; a minus means NE won.

Total points

median 44 · 8 in 10 between 27 and 61

7
≤24
7
10
30
13
15
40
14
12
50
9
6
60
4
2
70
1
≥75

Share of simulated games by combined points, in 5-point bands.

How each team scored, on average

Per gameNEMIA
Points (median, 80% range)24 (12–36)20 (8–32)
Touchdowns2.62.1
Field goals1.91.8
Passing yards223200
Rushing yards115117

Supporting simulation (not the official projection · not graded) · simulated game explorer

Five of the simulated games, as they were generated

Game #4,867 of 10,000 · Middle of the pack

NE 13–9 MIA NE win

NE 13: 1 TD, 2 FG, 1 XP · 11/19 passing for 76 yds · 27 carries for 107 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Hunter HenryHunter Henry TE1-12
Rhamondre StevensonRhamondre Stevenson RB6-73-13
Drake MayeDrake Maye QB11/19, 762-14
TreVeyon HendersonTreVeyon Henderson RB6-10
A.J. BrownA.J. Brown WR5-21
Corey KinerCorey Kiner RB12-741 rush
Eli RaridonEli Raridon TE2-30

MIA 9: 1 TD, 1 FG, 0 XP · 21/28 passing for 225 yds · 21 carries for 116 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Jaylen WrightJaylen Wright RB6-19
Malik WashingtonMalik Washington WR6-891 rec
Ollie Gordon IIOllie Gordon II RB11-630-0
Greg DulcichGreg Dulcich TE8-89
Malik WillisMalik Willis QB21/28, 2254-341 pass
Caleb DouglasCaleb Douglas WR2-16
Chris BellChris Bell WR3-17
Kevin Coleman Jr.Kevin Coleman Jr. WR1-3

A real game from this run, shown as generated. Plays by players outside the named group count in the team line only. Who scored in one game is not a touchdown probability.

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (NE – MIA)Chance
20–170.78%
17–200.76%
20–230.68%
27–240.64%
23–200.62%
24–270.55%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

MarginThis gameLast 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 310.6%14.2%
Decided by exactly 77.1%8.3%
Decided by exactly 105.8%4.2%
Decided by exactly 144.9%4.4%
Any of the four28.5%31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

NE touchdowns
2.6
MIA touchdowns
2.3
NE field goals
1.7
MIA field goals
1.6
Tied after regulation
4.0%
Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Methodology

How these numbers are made

Sources, versions, timestamps and evaluation status
NumberModelVersion / runProduced
Win chance, projected score, margin, totalGame Time Forecastnfl-regular-season-public-v1 · input 100db6628db2b95cOct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Passing / rushing / receiving yards, receptions (official)Official player boardsnapshot 2aac35a01677Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Anytime touchdown (official)Touchdown model (official player board)opportunity modelOct 30, 11:53 AM ET
Simulated outcomes and sampled games: supporting simulation, not the official projection, not gradedWorld Model V22.2.0 · run 4386727ca5b67259 · 10,000 games · input 100db6628db2b95cOct 30, 11:53 AM ET

The Game Time Forecast rates both teams from past results and play efficiency and produces the win chance and the score centre. Player projections are the official player board's, the numbers Results grade. As a supporting view, World Model V2 simulates 10,000 complete games: each one draws a final score around that centre, splits it into touchdowns, kicks and safeties, and hands passes and carries to the players expected to be active. Its numbers are not the official projection and are not graded. From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Until kickoff a later run may update these numbers when an input changes (each version is kept); at kickoff the last version is frozen.

Supporting simulation inputs as of: forecast Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET · injuries Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET · rosters Oct 30, 11:53 AM ET · player history through the last completed week (2026-week08-20261030T0038Z.json).

Quarterbacks: NE Drake Maye · MIA Malik Willis (depth chart; the first quarterback not ruled out throws).

Tested on past seasonsYesplayer receptions, receiving / rushing / passing yards from game worlds: development look cleared for a private forward test (2022–2025)
Frozen before kickoff and recordedYesWeek 5 2026 candidates frozen before kickoff (private captures 2026-10-08T18:21Z, T18:27Z)
Graded on games played sinceNot yetno graded forward sample yet
Eligible for picks productsNot yetneeds forward evaluation against the preregistered bars
Promoted as the official forecastNot yetthe published game forecast remains the forecast of record

Results: Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Not published:

  • anytime td: Touchdown scorer probabilities from these worlds failed their evaluation (log loss 0.5138 vs 0.5109 for the red-zone model; calibration error 0.034). Diagnosis: a scorer must touch the ball in the same world, which double-counts opportunity and moves touchdowns from part-time to every-down players. Not published as probabilities; anytime-touchdown chances shown on the site come from the separate touchdown model.
  • passing td: Passing touchdowns are credited to the passer in every world, but no evaluation of passing-touchdown distributions exists. Not published as probabilities.
  • interceptions, sacks, kicking and defensive player stats: Not simulated.
  • First touchdown scorer: needs the order of scoring plays, which the simulated games do not record.

Known limitations:

  • Scores come from the published margin and total heads; they do not see injuries or who plays quarterback.
  • Simulated final scores do not cluster on 3- and 7-point margins the way real NFL scores do, so exact-score frequencies from these games are not published.
  • The win chance here is counted from these simulated games and can differ from the published win chance, which comes from a separate rating.
  • Overtime outcomes are drawn from the 2017–2025 record, not simulated play by play.
  • Player volume does not yet adjust to an opposing defense beyond the team-level volume fit.
  • Red-zone history ends with 2025; 2026 games add no red-zone evidence.
  • Plays by players outside the named active set are counted in team totals only.

Availability used: TreVeyon Henderson (NE, Questionable, simulated as playing); A.J. Brown (NE, Questionable, simulated as playing); Malik Washington (MIA, Questionable, simulated as playing); Greg Dulcich (MIA, Questionable, simulated as playing); Will Kacmarek (MIA, Questionable, simulated as playing).

20,000 simulated team-games checked for consistency, 0 inconsistent.

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast

See 10,000 coherent simulated games of this matchup

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score
The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance
The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
80% range
Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points)
The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Official Forecast
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.

Where this came from

model
nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations
10,000
input hash
100db6628db2b95c
generated
kickoff
state
UPCOMING
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
  • Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
  • Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1129 graded player-games).
  • Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1480 graded player-games).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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