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NFL · NE @ MIA · Simulation

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

NE 24 — 20 MIA · win chance NE 70.9% · MIA 26.2% · total 44

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

62.1%NE win in the simulated games

37.5%MIA win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

NE 24 – 20 MIAmedian score · averages 24.54 – 20.32

44median total · 80% of games 29–62

NE by 4median margin · 80% range: NE by 22 to MIA by 14

44.4%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.5% · 6.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: MIA points minus NE points (below 0 means NE won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-4). Range shown -51 to 45.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
NE	13	24	37	24.54
MIA	9	20	33	20.32

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	NE median (80%)	MIA median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	NE wins it	MIA wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	45.9%	36.4%	17.7%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–14)	13 (6–22)	50.6%	37.1%	12.3%
Q3	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	47.0%	34.2%	18.9%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–21)	47.3%	36.2%	16.5%
1st half	13 (3–21)	10 (3–20)	23 (12–35)	55.3%	38.6%	6.1%
2nd half	11 (3–21)	10 (0–18)	21 (10–34)	54.5%	37.6%	8.0%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	NE	MIA
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	62 (49–74)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (15–30)
Passing yards	218 (135–312)	199 (119–294)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (18–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	120 (60–202)	114 (54–194)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
NE	4.9%	16.5%	28.5%	25.6%	16.1%	8.4%
MIA	9.2%	24.5%	30.8%	21.7%	10.0%	3.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

NE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Drake Maye QB	33 (24–43)	22 (16–30)	216 (133–310)	1.6	0.7

NE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	8 (5–13)	31 (9–75)	0.3
Drake Maye QB	6 (3–10)	29 (7–69)	0.2
TreVeyon Henderson RB	6 (3–10)	22 (4–61)	0.2
Corey Kiner RB	4 (2–7)	15 (1–47)	0.2

NE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Mack Hollins WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	28 (4–73)	0.2
A.J. Brown WR	6 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	28 (4–72)	0.3
Hunter Henry TE	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–71)	0.2
DeMario Douglas WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–67)	0.2
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–53)	0.2
Eli Raridon TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.1

MIA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Malik Willis QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	177 (101–267)	1.2	0.9

MIA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
De'Von Achane RB	8 (4–12)	33 (8–78)	0.3
Ollie Gordon II RB	7 (4–12)	31 (7–74)	0.3
Malik Willis QB	5 (2–8)	22 (4–60)	0.1
Jaylen Wright RB	3 (1–5)	7 (0–31)	0.1

MIA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Malik Washington WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	31 (5–74)	0.2
Greg Dulcich TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–67)	0.2
Caleb Douglas WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (0–63)	0.2
De'Von Achane RB	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–50)	0.1
Chris Bell WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–49)	0.1
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	NE	39.5%	8.2%	10.7%
De'Von Achane RB	MIA	34.3%	6.1%	8.5%
Ollie Gordon II RB	MIA	28.0%	3.5%	7.0%
A.J. Brown WR	NE	25.8%	3.3%	6.2%
TreVeyon Henderson RB	NE	25.1%	3.3%	5.7%
Malik Washington WR	MIA	23.5%	2.9%	5.4%
Mack Hollins WR	NE	21.9%	2.2%	5.3%
Hunter Henry TE	NE	20.9%	2.3%	4.9%
DeMario Douglas WR	NE	20.4%	1.8%	4.5%
Drake Maye QB	NE	17.8%	1.6%	4.0%
Greg Dulcich TE	MIA	16.3%	1.3%	3.7%
Corey Kiner RB	NE	15.7%	1.3%	3.7%
Caleb Douglas WR	MIA	14.7%	1.2%	3.6%
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	13.6%	0.9%	3.3%
Chris Bell WR	MIA	13.6%	1.0%	3.2%
Eli Raridon TE	NE	12.9%	0.9%	2.9%

First touchdown by team: NE 54.7% · MIA 44.9% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: NE 24 – 20 MIA

By quarter: NE 7 / 10 / 7 / 0 · MIA 3 / 7 / 3 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NE–MIA)
1	NE	65	td	13	65	7–0
1	MIA	65	fg	9	56	7–3
1	NE	81	fg	9	36	10–3
2	MIA	70	punt	3	-10	10–3
2	NE	52	td	5	52	17–3
2	MIA	65	downs	5	64	17–3
2	NE	99	turnover	4	28	17–3
2	MIA	36	td	7	36	17–10
2	MIA	75	punt	3	14	17–10
3	NE	75	turnover	5	-2	17–10
3	MIA	22	fg	10	21	17–13
3	NE	68	td	6	68	24–13
3	MIA	55	downs	5	18	24–13
3	NE	63	punt	3	22	24–13
3	MIA	99	punt	3	6	24–13
4	NE	56	punt	3	-2	24–13
4	MIA	78	turnover	1	52	24–13
4	NE	99	punt	3	7	24–13
4	MIA	58	td	6	58	24–20
4	NE	62	turnover	5	43	24–20
4	MIA	46	fg miss	5	18	24–20
4	NE	58	end half	3	-1	24–20

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: NE 33 – 29 MIA

By quarter: NE 11 / 0 / 8 / 14 · MIA 0 / 0 / 21 / 8

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NE–MIA)
1	NE	65	fg	7	55	3–0
1	MIA	82	punt	3	11	3–0
1	NE	75	td	8	75	11–0
1	MIA	73	punt	3	2	11–0
1	NE	74	end half	3	-1	11–0
2	MIA	48	td	9	48	11–7
3	NE	58	td	2	58	19–7
3	MIA	65	turnover	6	46	19–7
3	NE	81	opp td	5	3	19–14
3	NE	62	opp td	1	16	19–21
3	NE	65	punt	3	8	19–21
3	MIA	73	punt	3	30	19–21
3	NE	99	td	6	99	26–21
4	MIA	70	punt	3	7	26–21
4	NE	77	td	10	77	33–21
4	MIA	65	td	11	65	33–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: NE 16 – 13 MIA

By quarter: NE 7 / 6 / 3 / 0 · MIA 0 / 6 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NE–MIA)
1	MIA	80	punt	3	3	0–0
1	NE	72	td	8	72	7–0
1	MIA	67	turnover	4	66	7–0
1	NE	99	punt	7	12	7–0
1	MIA	46	fg	10	29	7–3
2	NE	65	fg	11	64	10–3
2	MIA	70	punt	3	16	10–3
2	NE	68	fg	9	63	13–3
2	MIA	52	fg	3	15	13–6
2	NE	70	end half	3	10	13–6
2	NE	70	punt	3	5	13–6
3	MIA	76	turnover	5	-9	13–6
3	NE	37	fg	9	17	16–6
3	MIA	76	td	12	76	16–13
4	NE	80	punt	3	-2	16–13
4	MIA	83	downs	4	28	16–13
4	NE	41	punt	3	6	16–13
4	MIA	99	punt	3	12	16–13
4	NE	65	punt	3	37	16–13
4	MIA	98	end half	7	72	16–13

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 26, 8:17 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
Seed	df08535d · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 44 / margin.median -4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means MIA 19.86 / NE 24.15
Availability	injuries as of Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873034:1130661f0877102c

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.