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EducationalNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today· Sep 14Pregame slateSettled· Sep 13
NFL · Week 1 report

Week 1: 81.0% of our predictions came true

336 of 415 checks across 15 final games, each graded exactly as we published it before kickoff against the official box score. DEN at KC is not final yet and will be added when it finishes.

Before the numbers

What counts as a hit

We publish likely ranges, not over/under bets, so each check is defined from what you saw on the page.

  • A hit when the team we gave the higher win chance won. A tie is void.
  • Every total, margin and player number we publish comes with a range that 8 in 10 of our simulations landed inside. A hit is a final number inside that range, as it was shown on the page. About 8 in 10 should land inside: far more means our ranges were too wide, far fewer means too narrow.
  • In each game, the player we gave the best chance to score a touchdown. A hit if the official record credits him with a rushing, receiving or return touchdown — throwing one does not count.
  • A player with no line at all in the official box score did not play, so his predictions are void, not misses. A game that is not final yet is pending.
  • Rushing and passing yards were shown as unvalidated estimates. They are graded the same way and labelled.
  • A range can always be made to land 8 in 10 times by making it wider. So beside each success rate we show the typical miss (how far the middle of our range was from the final number) and the average width of the range. Getting better means both shrink while about 8 in 10 still land inside.
Week 1

Success rate by prediction

15 final games · void predictions are not counted

PredictionSuccess rateHitsVoidTypical missRange widthWhat counts
Picked the winner53.3%8/15———The team we gave the better win chance won. Our win chances expected about 8.6 of 15 to come true.
Total points landed in our range80.0%12/15—14 pts34 ptsThe final combined score landed inside our range. Aim: about 8 in 10.
Winning margin landed in our range73.3%11/15—12 pts35 ptsThe winning margin landed inside our range. Aim: about 8 in 10.
Receptions landed in our range88.7%118/133181.5 catches4.7 catchesThe player's catches landed inside our range. Aim: about 8 in 10.
Receiving yards landed in our range85.0%113/1331822 yds
middle ran low
62 ydsThe player's receiving yards landed inside our range. Aim: about 8 in 10.
Rushing yards landed in our range · estimate71.2%47/662222 yds
middle ran low
52 ydsThe player's rushing yards landed inside our range. Aim: about 8 in 10.
Passing yards landed in our range · estimate72.0%18/251091 yds
middle ran low
233 ydsThe quarterback's passing yards landed inside our range. Aim: about 8 in 10.
Our likeliest touchdown scorer scored69.2%9/132——The player we rated likeliest to score a touchdown in each game scored one.
Overall81.0%336/415Every check above, added together.

How we get better. A range can always be made to land 8 in 10 times by making it wider, so a higher success rate alone is not progress. Week over week we aim for a smaller typical miss and narrower ranges while about 8 in 10 still land inside — and for more winners than our own win chances expected.

For context, not counted above. On total points, our number was closer to the final than the sportsbooks’ in 4 games, theirs was closer in 7, and 2 were even (2 had no sportsbook total). Across the 168 players we gave a touchdown chance who played, our chances added up to about 37.7 scorers; 47 actually scored.

Week 1

Game by game

Our pre-kickoff read beside the final score

GameFinalOur pickOur total (range)Margin in rangeSportsbook total
NE at SEA
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET
NE 10 — 13 SEASEA 62% ✓ Hit46 (29–63) ✗ Miss✓ Hit—
SF at LAR
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET
SF 27 — 7 LARLAR 58% ✗ Miss51 (34–68) ✓ Hit✗ Miss—
ATL at PIT
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
ATL 13 — 20 PITPIT 59% ✓ Hit47 (30–64) ✓ Hit✓ Hit41
BAL at IND
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
BAL 41 — 23 INDIND 50% ✗ Miss50 (33–67) ✓ Hit✗ Miss48
BUF at HOU
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
BUF 36 — 31 HOUHOU 54% ✗ Miss48 (31–65) ✗ Miss✓ Hit44.5
CHI at CAR
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
CHI 59 — 37 CARCHI 49% ✓ Hit47 (31–64) ✗ Miss✗ Miss47
CLE at JAX
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
CLE 10 — 34 JAXJAX 65% ✓ Hit46 (29–62) ✓ Hit✓ Hit40
NO at DET
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
NO 30 — 31 DETDET 67% ✓ Hit48 (31–65) ✓ Hit✓ Hit50
NYJ at TEN
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
NYJ 23 — 10 TENTEN 54% ✗ Miss48 (31–64) ✓ Hit✓ Hit38.5
TB at CIN
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
TB 27 — 33 CINCIN 53% ✓ Hit50 (33–67) ✓ Hit✓ Hit50.5
ARI at LAC
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
ARI 26 — 14 LACLAC 68% ✗ Miss47 (30–64) ✓ Hit✗ Miss47
GB at MIN
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
GB 22 — 39 MINMIN 57% ✓ Hit45 (28–62) ✓ Hit✓ Hit46
MIA at LV
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
MIA 13 — 27 LVMIA 51% ✗ Miss45 (28–62) ✓ Hit✓ Hit40.5
WSH at PHI
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
WSH 22 — 24 PHIPHI 66% ✓ Hit47 (31–64) ✓ Hit✓ Hit44
DAL at NYG
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET
DAL 20 — 28 NYGDAL 50% ✗ Miss51 (35–69) ✓ Hit✓ Hit47.5
DEN at KC
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET
not finalDEN 60% 41 (24–58) —43
Week 1

Every player prediction

Open a game to see each player's range, the official number and the result

NE at SEA · final NE 10 — 13 SEA · players 19/22 in range · 6 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
AJ Barner SEAReceptions0–42✓ Hit
AJ Barner SEAReceiving yards0–5213✓ Hit
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEAReceptions2–98✓ Hit
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEAReceiving yards20–124122✓ Hit
Tory Horton SEAReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Tory Horton SEAReceiving yards0–46did not playVoid
Rhamondre Stevenson NEReceptions0–55✓ Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NEReceiving yards0–5544✓ Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NERushing yards · estimate6–6651✓ Hit
Hunter Henry NEReceptions0–53✓ Hit
Hunter Henry NEReceiving yards0–6826✓ Hit
Drake Maye NERushing yards · estimate1–4747✓ Hit
Drake Maye NEPassing yards · estimate70–323178✓ Hit
Cooper Kupp SEAReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Cooper Kupp SEAReceiving yards4–7735✓ Hit
Mack Hollins NEReceptions1–64✓ Hit
Mack Hollins NEReceiving yards3–8051✓ Hit
George Holani SEARushing yards · estimate0–2129✗ Miss
DeMario Douglas NEReceptions0–45✗ Miss
DeMario Douglas NEReceiving yards0–4720✓ Hit
Elijah Arroyo SEAReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Elijah Arroyo SEAReceiving yards0–35did not playVoid
Velus Jones Jr. SEARushing yards · estimate0–28did not playVoid
Sam Darnold SEARushing yards · estimate0–210✓ Hit
Sam Darnold SEAPassing yards · estimate64–30513✗ Miss
Jacardia Wright SEARushing yards · estimate0–21did not playVoid
Rashid Shaheed SEAReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Rashid Shaheed SEAReceiving yards0–454✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Zach Charbonnet 51% Void · AJ Barner 36% ✗ No TD · Jaxon Smith-Njigba 30% ✓ Scored · Tory Horton 27% Void · Rhamondre Stevenson 24% ✗ No TD · Hunter Henry 21% ✗ No TD · Drake Maye 20% ✗ No TD · Cooper Kupp 16% ✗ No TD · TreVeyon Henderson 14% Void · Mack Hollins 14% ✗ No TD · Jake Bobo 14% Void · George Holani 12% ✗ No TD · DeMario Douglas 10% ✗ No TD · Kyle Williams 10% ✗ No TD · Elijah Arroyo 9% Void · Efton Chism III 6% Void

SF at LAR · final SF 27 — 7 LAR · players 25/26 in range · 9 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Christian McCaffrey SFReceptions1–75✓ Hit
Christian McCaffrey SFReceiving yards7–8120✓ Hit
Christian McCaffrey SFRushing yards · estimate15–8768✓ Hit
Kyren Williams LARReceptions0–33✓ Hit
Kyren Williams LARReceiving yards0–3824✓ Hit
Kyren Williams LARRushing yards · estimate16–9541✓ Hit
Puka Nacua LARReceptions2–95✓ Hit
Puka Nacua LARReceiving yards19–12374✓ Hit
Davante Adams LARReceptions1–63✓ Hit
Davante Adams LARReceiving yards5–8126✓ Hit
Colby Parkinson LARReceptions0–51✓ Hit
Colby Parkinson LARReceiving yards0–586✓ Hit
George Kittle SFReceptions1–72✓ Hit
George Kittle SFReceiving yards6–8512✓ Hit
Jake Tonges SFReceptions0–5did not playVoid
Jake Tonges SFReceiving yards0–57did not playVoid
Terrance Ferguson LARReceptions0–30✓ Hit
Terrance Ferguson LARReceiving yards0–370✓ Hit
Tyler Higbee LARReceptions0–32✓ Hit
Tyler Higbee LARReceiving yards0–4412✓ Hit
Brock Purdy SFRushing yards · estimate0–3929✓ Hit
Brock Purdy SFPassing yards · estimate50–296205✓ Hit
Blake Corum LARRushing yards · estimate6–6954✓ Hit
Demarcus Robinson SFReceptions0–42✓ Hit
Demarcus Robinson SFReceiving yards0–4750✗ Miss
Jordan James SFRushing yards · estimate0–25did not playVoid
Mac Jones SFRushing yards · estimate0–20did not playVoid
Mac Jones SFPassing yards · estimate0–189did not playVoid
Matthew Stafford LARPassing yards · estimate66–312155✓ Hit
Davis Allen LARReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Davis Allen LARReceiving yards0–3313✓ Hit
Ricky Pearsall SFReceptions0–5did not playVoid
Ricky Pearsall SFReceiving yards0–70did not playVoid
Brandon Aiyuk SFReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Brandon Aiyuk SFReceiving yards0–53did not playVoid

Touchdown chances: Christian McCaffrey 46% ✗ No TD · Kyren Williams 45% ✓ Scored · Puka Nacua 39% ✗ No TD · Davante Adams 34% ✗ No TD · Colby Parkinson 26% ✗ No TD · George Kittle 23% ✗ No TD · Jake Tonges 22% Void · Terrance Ferguson 21% ✗ No TD · Tyler Higbee 17% ✗ No TD · Brock Purdy 16% ✗ No TD · Blake Corum 16% ✗ No TD · Demarcus Robinson 15% ✓ Scored · Tutu Atwell 12% Void · Kyle Juszczyk 11% Void · Luke Farrell 9% ✗ No TD · Isaac Guerendo 7% Void

ATL at PIT · final ATL 13 — 20 PIT · players 13/19 in range
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Jaylen Warren PITReceptions0–35✗ Miss
Jaylen Warren PITReceiving yards0–3727✓ Hit
Jaylen Warren PITRushing yards · estimate17–9746✓ Hit
Bijan Robinson ATLReceptions1–78✗ Miss
Bijan Robinson ATLReceiving yards7–8090✗ Miss
Bijan Robinson ATLRushing yards · estimate19–10583✓ Hit
Drake London ATLReceptions2–82✓ Hit
Drake London ATLReceiving yards12–10429✓ Hit
Roman Wilson PITReceptions0–33✓ Hit
Roman Wilson PITReceiving yards0–3626✓ Hit
DK Metcalf PITReceptions1–64✓ Hit
DK Metcalf PITReceiving yards5–8540✓ Hit
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATLReceptions1–80✗ Miss
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATLReceiving yards10–920✗ Miss
Pat Freiermuth PITReceptions0–45✗ Miss
Pat Freiermuth PITReceiving yards0–5146✓ Hit
Aaron Rodgers PITPassing yards · estimate48–261221✓ Hit
Darnell Washington PITReceptions0–42✓ Hit
Darnell Washington PITReceiving yards0–4618✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Jaylen Warren 38% ✗ No TD · Bijan Robinson 38% ✓ Scored · Drake London 37% ✗ No TD · Roman Wilson 26% ✗ No TD · DK Metcalf 24% ✗ No TD · Kyle Pitts Sr. 20% ✗ No TD · Pat Freiermuth 15% ✓ Scored · Aaron Rodgers 11% ✗ No TD · Darnell Washington 7% ✗ No TD

BAL at IND · final BAL 41 — 23 IND · players 18/22 in range · 6 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Derrick Henry BALRushing yards · estimate21–111144✗ Miss
Jonathan Taylor INDReceptions0–43✓ Hit
Jonathan Taylor INDReceiving yards0–4923✓ Hit
Jonathan Taylor INDRushing yards · estimate27–11798✓ Hit
Alec Pierce INDReceptions1–54✓ Hit
Alec Pierce INDReceiving yards0–8161✓ Hit
Zay Flowers BALReceptions2–95✓ Hit
Zay Flowers BALReceiving yards19–124150✗ Miss
Justice Hill BALReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Justice Hill BALReceiving yards0–3810✓ Hit
Josh Downs INDReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Josh Downs INDReceiving yards1–6937✓ Hit
Anthony Richardson Sr. INDRushing yards · estimate0–26did not playVoid
Daniel Jones INDRushing yards · estimate0–274✓ Hit
Daniel Jones INDPassing yards · estimate25–271166✓ Hit
Mark Andrews BALReceptions1–64✓ Hit
Mark Andrews BALReceiving yards2–6849✓ Hit
Mo Alie-Cox INDReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Mo Alie-Cox INDReceiving yards0–35did not playVoid
Tyler Warren INDReceptions1–6.13✓ Hit
Tyler Warren INDReceiving yards5–7713✓ Hit
Lamar Jackson BALRushing yards · estimate0–3940✗ Miss
Lamar Jackson BALPassing yards · estimate40–297324✗ Miss
Rashod Bateman BALReceptions0–40✓ Hit
Rashod Bateman BALReceiving yards0–460✓ Hit
DJ Giddens INDRushing yards · estimate0–34did not playVoid
Tyler Huntley BALRushing yards · estimate0–29did not playVoid
Tyler Huntley BALPassing yards · estimate0–197did not playVoid

Touchdown chances: Derrick Henry 46% ✓ Scored · Jonathan Taylor 37% ✓ Scored · Alec Pierce 35% ✗ No TD · Zay Flowers 34% ✓ Scored · Justice Hill 26% ✗ No TD · Riley Leonard 25% Void · Josh Downs 24% ✗ No TD · Devontez Walker 20% Void · Anthony Richardson Sr. 18% Void · Daniel Jones 17% ✗ No TD · Mark Andrews 16% ✗ No TD · Mo Alie-Cox 16% Void · Tyler Warren 14% ✓ Scored · Lamar Jackson 14% ✓ Scored · Rasheen Ali 13% ✗ No TD · Rashod Bateman 11% ✗ No TD

BUF at HOU · final BUF 36 — 31 HOU · players 23/27 in range · 7 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Josh Allen BUFRushing yards · estimate2–5523✓ Hit
Josh Allen BUFPassing yards · estimate68–317334✗ Miss
Nico Collins HOUReceptions1–77✓ Hit
Nico Collins HOUReceiving yards6–9175✓ Hit
Woody Marks HOURushing yards · estimate13–7842✓ Hit
James Cook III BUFReceptions0–33✓ Hit
James Cook III BUFReceiving yards0–4012✓ Hit
James Cook III BUFRushing yards · estimate15–9757✓ Hit
Keon Coleman BUFReceptions0–41✓ Hit
Keon Coleman BUFReceiving yards0–521✓ Hit
Dalton Kincaid BUFReceptions0–55✓ Hit
Dalton Kincaid BUFReceiving yards0–66130✗ Miss
Dalton Schultz HOUReceptions1–54✓ Hit
Dalton Schultz HOUReceiving yards1–6535✓ Hit
Ty Johnson BUFReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Ty Johnson BUFReceiving yards0–42did not playVoid
Ty Johnson BUFRushing yards · estimate0–28did not playVoid
C.J. Stroud HOURushing yards · estimate0–2515✓ Hit
C.J. Stroud HOUPassing yards · estimate26–252274✗ Miss
Dawson Knox BUFReceptions0–41✓ Hit
Dawson Knox BUFReceiving yards0–557✓ Hit
Davis Mills HOURushing yards · estimate0–19did not playVoid
Davis Mills HOUPassing yards · estimate0–185did not playVoid
Ray Davis BUFRushing yards · estimate0–233✓ Hit
Jawhar Jordan HOURushing yards · estimate2–53did not playVoid
British Brooks HOURushing yards · estimate0–21did not playVoid
Xavier Hutchinson HOUReceptions0–53✓ Hit
Xavier Hutchinson HOUReceiving yards0–5932✓ Hit
Cade Stover HOUReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Cade Stover HOUReceiving yards0–36-2✗ Miss
Khalil Shakir BUFReceptions1–84✓ Hit
Khalil Shakir BUFReceiving yards9–8950✓ Hit
Joshua Palmer BUFReceptions0–41✓ Hit
Joshua Palmer BUFReceiving yards0–4434✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Josh Allen 38% ✓ Scored · Nico Collins 29% ✓ Scored · Woody Marks 24% ✗ No TD · James Cook III 24% ✗ No TD · Keon Coleman 23% ✗ No TD · Dalton Kincaid 23% ✗ No TD · Dalton Schultz 20% ✗ No TD · Ty Johnson 19% Void · Jackson Hawes 13% Void · C.J. Stroud 13% ✗ No TD · Dawson Knox 12% ✗ No TD · Jaylin Noel 12% ✗ No TD · Davis Mills 9% Void · Ray Davis 9% ✗ No TD

CHI at CAR · final CHI 59 — 37 CAR · players 21/29 in range · 2 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
D'Andre Swift CHIRushing yards · estimate11–83124✗ Miss
Jalen Coker CARReceptions1–68✗ Miss
Jalen Coker CARReceiving yards5–81138✗ Miss
Tetairoa McMillan CARReceptions1–75✓ Hit
Tetairoa McMillan CARReceiving yards7–8875✓ Hit
Bryce Young CARRushing yards · estimate0–3610✓ Hit
Bryce Young CARPassing yards · estimate54–274361✗ Miss
Chuba Hubbard CARReceptions0–33✓ Hit
Chuba Hubbard CARReceiving yards0–4138✓ Hit
Chuba Hubbard CARRushing yards · estimate4–6049✓ Hit
Colston Loveland CHIReceptions1–70✗ Miss
Colston Loveland CHIReceiving yards8–900✗ Miss
Cole Kmet CHIReceptions0–32✓ Hit
Cole Kmet CHIReceiving yards0–4135✓ Hit
Ja'Tavion Sanders CARReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Ja'Tavion Sanders CARReceiving yards0–42did not playVoid
Tommy Tremble CARReceptions0–33✓ Hit
Tommy Tremble CARReceiving yards0–4325✓ Hit
Kyle Monangai CHIReceptions0–32✓ Hit
Kyle Monangai CHIReceiving yards0–3624✓ Hit
Kyle Monangai CHIRushing yards · estimate5–62100✗ Miss
Rome Odunze CHIReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Rome Odunze CHIReceiving yards2–7652✓ Hit
Xavier Legette CARReceptions0–40✓ Hit
Xavier Legette CARReceiving yards0–510✓ Hit
Luther Burden III CHIReceptions1–55✓ Hit
Luther Burden III CHIReceiving yards0–7063✓ Hit
Mitchell Evans CARReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Mitchell Evans CARReceiving yards0–369✓ Hit
Caleb Williams CHIRushing yards · estimate0–3465✗ Miss
Caleb Williams CHIPassing yards · estimate60–282269✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: D'Andre Swift 28% ✓ Scored · Jalen Coker 27% ✓ Scored · Jahdae Walker 27% ✓ Scored · Tetairoa McMillan 26% ✗ No TD · Bryce Young 25% ✓ Scored · Chuba Hubbard 24% ✓ Scored · Colston Loveland 21% ✗ No TD · Cole Kmet 17% ✓ Scored · Ja'Tavion Sanders 16% Void · Tommy Tremble 15% ✗ No TD · Kyle Monangai 14% ✓ Scored · Rome Odunze 13% ✗ No TD · Xavier Legette 11% ✗ No TD · Luther Burden III 8% ✗ No TD · Mitchell Evans 8% ✗ No TD

CLE at JAX · final CLE 10 — 34 JAX · players 23/26 in range · 4 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Harold Fannin Jr. CLEReceptions1–72✓ Hit
Harold Fannin Jr. CLEReceiving yards8–8721✓ Hit
Travis Hunter JAXReceptions0–51✓ Hit
Travis Hunter JAXReceiving yards0–648✓ Hit
Trevor Lawrence JAXRushing yards · estimate0–423✓ Hit
Trevor Lawrence JAXPassing yards · estimate58–294245✓ Hit
Parker Washington JAXReceptions1–75✓ Hit
Parker Washington JAXReceiving yards7–9283✓ Hit
Quinshon Judkins CLEReceptions0–42✓ Hit
Quinshon Judkins CLEReceiving yards0–4617✓ Hit
Quinshon Judkins CLERushing yards · estimate12–7533✓ Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAXRushing yards · estimate0–4266✗ Miss
Brian Thomas Jr. JAXReceptions0–53✓ Hit
Brian Thomas Jr. JAXReceiving yards0–6540✓ Hit
Brenton Strange JAXReceptions0–52✓ Hit
Brenton Strange JAXReceiving yards0–6323✓ Hit
Jakobi Meyers JAXReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Jakobi Meyers JAXReceiving yards4–7640✓ Hit
Raheim Sanders CLERushing yards · estimate0–371✓ Hit
Jerry Jeudy CLEReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Jerry Jeudy CLEReceiving yards5–7826✓ Hit
Deshaun Watson CLERushing yards · estimate0–2238✗ Miss
Dylan Sampson CLEReceptions0–40✓ Hit
Dylan Sampson CLEReceiving yards0–460✓ Hit
Dylan Sampson CLERushing yards · estimate0–360✓ Hit
Shedeur Sanders CLERushing yards · estimate0–28did not playVoid
Shedeur Sanders CLEPassing yards · estimate14–235did not playVoid
Nick Mullens JAXRushing yards · estimate0–22-3✗ Miss
Isaiah Bond CLEReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Isaiah Bond CLEReceiving yards0–41did not playVoid

Touchdown chances: Harold Fannin Jr. 44% ✗ No TD · Travis Hunter 34% ✗ No TD · Trevor Lawrence 32% ✗ No TD · Parker Washington 29% ✓ Scored · Quinshon Judkins 25% ✗ No TD · Bhayshul Tuten 24% ✗ No TD · Brian Thomas Jr. 21% ✗ No TD · Brenton Strange 18% ✓ Scored · Jakobi Meyers 15% ✓ Scored · Raheim Sanders 15% ✗ No TD · Quintin Morris 13% ✗ No TD · Jerry Jeudy 12% ✗ No TD · Deshaun Watson 10% ✗ No TD · Dylan Sampson 10% ✗ No TD · Shedeur Sanders 9% Void

NO at DET · final NO 30 — 31 DET · players 16/23 in range · 7 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Jahmyr Gibbs DETReceptions1–65✓ Hit
Jahmyr Gibbs DETReceiving yards1–6330✓ Hit
Jahmyr Gibbs DETRushing yards · estimate23–107156✗ Miss
Isaac TeSlaa DETReceptions0–30✓ Hit
Isaac TeSlaa DETReceiving yards0–370✓ Hit
Chris Olave NOReceptions2–910✗ Miss
Chris Olave NOReceiving yards16–110182✗ Miss
Sam LaPorta DETReceptions1–65✓ Hit
Sam LaPorta DETReceiving yards2–7248✓ Hit
Jameson Williams DETReceptions1–64✓ Hit
Jameson Williams DETReceiving yards3–8445✓ Hit
Amon-Ra St. Brown DETReceptions2–910✗ Miss
Amon-Ra St. Brown DETReceiving yards16–11267✓ Hit
Tyler Shough NORushing yards · estimate0–338✓ Hit
Tyler Shough NOPassing yards · estimate28–270410✗ Miss
Devaughn Vele NOReceptions1–57✗ Miss
Devaughn Vele NOReceiving yards0–6869✗ Miss
Brock Wright DETReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Brock Wright DETReceiving yards0–425✓ Hit
Juwan Johnson NOReceptions1–63✓ Hit
Juwan Johnson NOReceiving yards3–7554✓ Hit
Kendre Miller NORushing yards · estimate0–4230✓ Hit
Kevin Austin Jr. NOReceptions0–5did not playVoid
Kevin Austin Jr. NOReceiving yards0–56did not playVoid
Alvin Kamara NOReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Alvin Kamara NOReceiving yards0–48did not playVoid
Alvin Kamara NORushing yards · estimate6–61did not playVoid
Spencer Rattler NORushing yards · estimate0–29did not playVoid
Spencer Rattler NOPassing yards · estimate6–211did not playVoid
Jared Goff DETPassing yards · estimate64–303206✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Jahmyr Gibbs 53% ✓ Scored · Isaac TeSlaa 42% ✗ No TD · Chris Olave 39% ✗ No TD · Sam LaPorta 29% ✗ No TD · Jameson Williams 28% ✗ No TD · Amon-Ra St. Brown 25% ✓ Scored · Tyler Shough 20% ✗ No TD · Devaughn Vele 15% ✓ Scored · Brock Wright 14% ✗ No TD · Juwan Johnson 13% ✓ Scored · Kendre Miller 11% ✓ Scored · Kevin Austin Jr. 11% Void · Alvin Kamara 10% Void

NYJ at TEN · final NYJ 23 — 10 TEN · players 24/28 in range · 3 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Breece Hall NYJReceptions0–42✓ Hit
Breece Hall NYJReceiving yards0–4116✓ Hit
Breece Hall NYJRushing yards · estimate16–92102✗ Miss
Garrett Wilson NYJReceptions2–96✓ Hit
Garrett Wilson NYJReceiving yards15–10579✓ Hit
Cam Ward TENRushing yards · estimate0–2521✓ Hit
Cam Ward TENPassing yards · estimate31–237140✓ Hit
Chimere Dike TENReceptions0–51✓ Hit
Chimere Dike TENReceiving yards0–637✓ Hit
Elic Ayomanor TENReceptions1–51✓ Hit
Elic Ayomanor TENReceiving yards0–6811✓ Hit
Tony Pollard TENReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Tony Pollard TENReceiving yards0–32-1✗ Miss
Tony Pollard TENRushing yards · estimate21–10635✓ Hit
Adonai Mitchell NYJReceptions1–63✓ Hit
Adonai Mitchell NYJReceiving yards4–7660✓ Hit
Isaiah Davis NYJRushing yards · estimate0–30did not playVoid
Tyjae Spears TENReceptions0–52✓ Hit
Tyjae Spears TENReceiving yards0–5312✓ Hit
Tyjae Spears TENRushing yards · estimate1–4412✓ Hit
Gunnar Helm TENReceptions0–44✓ Hit
Gunnar Helm TENReceiving yards0–4828✓ Hit
Jeremy Ruckert NYJReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Jeremy Ruckert NYJReceiving yards0–394✓ Hit
Braelon Allen NYJRushing yards · estimate0–3440✗ Miss
Mason Taylor NYJReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Mason Taylor NYJReceiving yards2–69-2✗ Miss
Calvin Ridley TENReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Calvin Ridley TENReceiving yards0–61did not playVoid
Isaiah Williams NYJReceptions0–51✓ Hit
Isaiah Williams NYJReceiving yards0–607✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Breece Hall 39% ✓ Scored · Garrett Wilson 33% ✗ No TD · Andrew Beck 31% Void · Cam Ward 31% ✗ No TD · Chimere Dike 23% ✗ No TD · Elic Ayomanor 23% ✓ Scored · Tony Pollard 21% ✗ No TD · Adonai Mitchell 20% ✗ No TD · Isaiah Davis 15% Void · Tyjae Spears 15% ✗ No TD · Gunnar Helm 15% ✗ No TD · David Martin-Robinson 14% Void · Jeremy Ruckert 11% ✗ No TD · Braelon Allen 11% ✗ No TD · Jeffery Simmons 10% ✗ No TD · Mason Taylor 9% ✗ No TD

TB at CIN · final TB 27 — 33 CIN · players 22/27 in range · 4 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Tee Higgins CINReceptions1–63✓ Hit
Tee Higgins CINReceiving yards3–7659✓ Hit
Chase Brown CINReceptions0–55✓ Hit
Chase Brown CINReceiving yards0–5522✓ Hit
Chase Brown CINRushing yards · estimate18–9956✓ Hit
Sean Tucker TBRushing yards · estimate0–36did not playVoid
Ja'Marr Chase CINReceptions2–92✓ Hit
Ja'Marr Chase CINReceiving yards16–10912✗ Miss
Cade Otton TBReceptions1–63✓ Hit
Cade Otton TBReceiving yards4–7526✓ Hit
Tez Johnson TBReceptions0–30✓ Hit
Tez Johnson TBReceiving yards0–390✓ Hit
Bucky Irving TBReceptions0–47✗ Miss
Bucky Irving TBReceiving yards0–4548✗ Miss
Bucky Irving TBRushing yards · estimate14–8145✓ Hit
Chris Godwin Jr. TBReceptions1–54✓ Hit
Chris Godwin Jr. TBReceiving yards2–6740✓ Hit
Samaje Perine CINRushing yards · estimate2–5220✓ Hit
Andrei Iosivas CINReceptions0–32✓ Hit
Andrei Iosivas CINReceiving yards0–4612✓ Hit
Mike Gesicki CINReceptions0–45✗ Miss
Mike Gesicki CINReceiving yards0–4578✗ Miss
Emeka Egbuka TBReceptions1–65✓ Hit
Emeka Egbuka TBReceiving yards4–7663✓ Hit
Jalen McMillan TBReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Jalen McMillan TBReceiving yards0–52did not playVoid
Baker Mayfield TBRushing yards · estimate0–3230✓ Hit
Baker Mayfield TBPassing yards · estimate54–288216✓ Hit
Tahj Brooks CINRushing yards · estimate0–180✓ Hit
Joe Burrow CINPassing yards · estimate40–271254✓ Hit
Joe Flacco CINPassing yards · estimate0–184did not playVoid

Touchdown chances: Tee Higgins 38% ✗ No TD · Chase Brown 35% ✓ Scored · Sean Tucker 29% Void · Ja'Marr Chase 29% ✗ No TD · Cade Otton 25% ✗ No TD · Tristan Wirfs 23% Void · Tez Johnson 23% ✗ No TD · Bucky Irving 21% ✓ Scored · Chris Godwin Jr. 20% ✗ No TD · Tanner Hudson 17% ✗ No TD · Samaje Perine 14% ✗ No TD · Andrei Iosivas 14% ✗ No TD · Drew Sample 12% ✗ No TD · Mike Gesicki 12% ✓ Scored · Emeka Egbuka 10% ✗ No TD · Jalen McMillan 9% Void

ARI at LAC · final ARI 26 — 14 LAC · players 20/21 in range · 7 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Omarion Hampton LACReceptions0–40✓ Hit
Omarion Hampton LACReceiving yards0–430✓ Hit
Omarion Hampton LACRushing yards · estimate10–7943✓ Hit
Michael Wilson ARIReceptions1–75✓ Hit
Michael Wilson ARIReceiving yards9–9556✓ Hit
Quentin Johnston LACReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Quentin Johnston LACReceiving yards3–7417✓ Hit
Trey McBride ARIReceptions2–99✓ Hit
Trey McBride ARIReceiving yards15–10495✓ Hit
Ladd McConkey LACReceptions1–65✓ Hit
Ladd McConkey LACReceiving yards2–7082✗ Miss
Oronde Gadsden LACReceptions0–42✓ Hit
Oronde Gadsden LACReceiving yards0–5532✓ Hit
Kimani Vidal LACRushing yards · estimate8–68did not playVoid
Bam Knight ARIReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Bam Knight ARIReceiving yards0–35did not playVoid
Bam Knight ARIRushing yards · estimate3–52did not playVoid
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARIReceptions0–51✓ Hit
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARIReceiving yards0–7033✓ Hit
Justin Herbert LACRushing yards · estimate2–5929✓ Hit
Justin Herbert LACPassing yards · estimate53–281209✓ Hit
Jacoby Brissett ARIRushing yards · estimate0–2914✓ Hit
Jacoby Brissett ARIPassing yards · estimate52–290277✓ Hit
Trey Lance LACRushing yards · estimate0–41did not playVoid
Tre' Harris LACReceptions0–43✓ Hit
Tre' Harris LACReceiving yards0–4720✓ Hit
Elijah Higgins ARIReceptions0–4did not playVoid
Elijah Higgins ARIReceiving yards0–44did not playVoid

Touchdown chances: Omarion Hampton 47% ✓ Scored · Michael Wilson 38% ✗ No TD · Quentin Johnston 30% ✗ No TD · Trey McBride 29% ✓ Scored · Ladd McConkey 29% ✓ Scored · KeAndre Lambert-Smith 27% Void · Oronde Gadsden 24% ✗ No TD · Kimani Vidal 23% Void · Bam Knight 22% Void · Marvin Harrison Jr. 16% ✗ No TD · Justin Herbert 16% ✗ No TD · Jacoby Brissett 8% ✗ No TD

GB at MIN · final GB 22 — 39 MIN · players 19/25 in range · 4 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
J.J. McCarthy MINRushing yards · estimate0–30did not playVoid
J.J. McCarthy MINPassing yards · estimate1–205did not playVoid
Jordan Addison MINReceptions0–50✓ Hit
Jordan Addison MINReceiving yards0–640✓ Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MINReceptions0–50✓ Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MINReceiving yards0–580✓ Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MINRushing yards · estimate14–8240✓ Hit
Tucker Kraft GBReceptions1–63✓ Hit
Tucker Kraft GBReceiving yards2–7965✓ Hit
Jordan Mason MINRushing yards · estimate6–6959✓ Hit
Christian Watson GBReceptions1–66✓ Hit
Christian Watson GBReceiving yards5–87147✗ Miss
Josh Oliver MINReceptions0–32✓ Hit
Josh Oliver MINReceiving yards0–3822✓ Hit
T.J. Hockenson MINReceptions0–54✓ Hit
T.J. Hockenson MINReceiving yards0–6236✓ Hit
Jayden Reed GBReceptions1–53✓ Hit
Jayden Reed GBReceiving yards0–6620✓ Hit
Justin Jefferson MINReceptions2–88✓ Hit
Justin Jefferson MINReceiving yards13–10392✓ Hit
Matthew Golden GBReceptions0–4.16✗ Miss
Matthew Golden GBReceiving yards0–5995✗ Miss
Jordan Love GBRushing yards · estimate0–220✓ Hit
Jordan Love GBPassing yards · estimate50–294387✗ Miss
Carson Wentz MINRushing yards · estimate0–23-1✗ Miss
Carson Wentz MINPassing yards · estimate0–197133✓ Hit
Chris Brooks GBRushing yards · estimate0–2229✗ Miss
Drake Dabney GBReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Drake Dabney GBReceiving yards0–44did not playVoid

Touchdown chances: J.J. McCarthy 34% Void · Jordan Addison 27% ✗ No TD · Aaron Jones Sr. 25% ✓ Scored · Tucker Kraft 25% ✗ No TD · Jordan Mason 23% ✓ Scored · Christian Watson 23% ✓ Scored · Josh Oliver 16% ✗ No TD · T.J. Hockenson 15% ✓ Scored · Jayden Reed 13% ✗ No TD · Justin Jefferson 10% ✓ Scored · Matthew Golden 9% ✗ No TD · Bo Melton 7% ✗ No TD · Josh Whyle 7% Void

MIA at LV · final MIA 13 — 27 LV · players 14/17 in range · 2 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Ashton Jeanty LVReceptions1–66✓ Hit
Ashton Jeanty LVReceiving yards2–6245✓ Hit
Ashton Jeanty LVRushing yards · estimate23–101102✗ Miss
De'Von Achane MIAReceptions1–64✓ Hit
De'Von Achane MIAReceiving yards1–6430✓ Hit
De'Von Achane MIARushing yards · estimate21–11136✓ Hit
Malik Washington MIAReceptions0–53✓ Hit
Malik Washington MIAReceiving yards0–5553✓ Hit
Tre Tucker LVReceptions1–62✓ Hit
Tre Tucker LVReceiving yards4–7427✓ Hit
Ollie Gordon II MIARushing yards · estimate0–31did not playVoid
Greg Dulcich MIAReceptions0–52✓ Hit
Greg Dulcich MIAReceiving yards0–6718✓ Hit
Jaylen Wright MIARushing yards · estimate2–50-1✗ Miss
Aidan O'Connell LVPassing yards · estimate3–207did not playVoid
Michael Mayer LVReceptions0–56✗ Miss
Michael Mayer LVReceiving yards0–6232✓ Hit
Jack Bech LVReceptions0–43✓ Hit
Jack Bech LVReceiving yards0–4623✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Ashton Jeanty 40% ✓ Scored · De'Von Achane 37% ✗ No TD · Malik Washington 32% ✗ No TD · Tre Tucker 20% ✗ No TD · Ollie Gordon II 18% Void · Greg Dulcich 17% ✗ No TD · Jaylen Wright 15% ✗ No TD · Aidan O'Connell 14% Void · Michael Mayer 11% ✗ No TD

WSH at PHI · final WSH 22 — 24 PHI · players 16/19 in range · 6 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Dallas Goedert PHIReceptions1–6.14✓ Hit
Dallas Goedert PHIReceiving yards5–7677✗ Miss
Saquon Barkley PHIReceptions0–41✓ Hit
Saquon Barkley PHIReceiving yards0–46-3✗ Miss
Saquon Barkley PHIRushing yards · estimate23–10683✓ Hit
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WSHRushing yards · estimate6–6563✓ Hit
Jalen Hurts PHIRushing yards · estimate0–4246✗ Miss
Jalen Hurts PHIPassing yards · estimate53–275203✓ Hit
Tank Bigsby PHIRushing yards · estimate1–523✓ Hit
Terry McLaurin WSHReceptions1–72✓ Hit
Terry McLaurin WSHReceiving yards10–9714✓ Hit
Jayden Daniels WSHRushing yards · estimate1–5031✓ Hit
Jayden Daniels WSHPassing yards · estimate18–249164✓ Hit
DeVonta Smith PHIReceptions1–73✓ Hit
DeVonta Smith PHIReceiving yards8–8853✓ Hit
John Bates WSHReceptions0–32✓ Hit
John Bates WSHReceiving yards0–3913✓ Hit
Ben Sinnott WSHReceptions0–3did not playVoid
Ben Sinnott WSHReceiving yards0–43did not playVoid
Treylon Burks WSHReceptions0–5did not playVoid
Treylon Burks WSHReceiving yards0–57did not playVoid
Marcus Mariota WSHRushing yards · estimate0–36did not playVoid
Marcus Mariota WSHPassing yards · estimate9–241did not playVoid
Jaylin Lane WSHReceptions0–31✓ Hit
Jaylin Lane WSHReceiving yards0–364✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Dallas Goedert 56% ✓ Scored · Saquon Barkley 32% ✗ No TD · Jacory Croskey-Merritt 29% ✓ Scored · Jalen Hurts 25% ✗ No TD · Tank Bigsby 21% ✗ No TD · Terry McLaurin 21% ✗ No TD · Jayden Daniels 20% ✗ No TD · DeVonta Smith 18% ✗ No TD · E.J. Jenkins 17% Void · Luke McCaffrey 13% Void · John Bates 10% ✗ No TD · Ben Sinnott 7% Void · Treylon Burks 7% Void · Trent Scott 7% Void

DAL at NYG · final DAL 20 — 28 NYG · players 23/26 in range · 1 void
PlayerPredictionOur rangeActualResult
Cam Skattebo NYGReceptions0–40✓ Hit
Cam Skattebo NYGReceiving yards0–530✓ Hit
Cam Skattebo NYGRushing yards · estimate5–6281✗ Miss
Jaxson Dart NYGRushing yards · estimate0–4754✗ Miss
Jaxson Dart NYGPassing yards · estimate41–264230✓ Hit
Javonte Williams DALReceptions0–35✗ Miss
Javonte Williams DALReceiving yards0–3331✓ Hit
Javonte Williams DALRushing yards · estimate15–9041✓ Hit
Devin Singletary NYGRushing yards · estimate2–4916✓ Hit
Ryan Flournoy DALReceptions0–52✓ Hit
Ryan Flournoy DALReceiving yards0–6022✓ Hit
Malik Nabers NYGReceptions1–76✓ Hit
Malik Nabers NYGReceiving yards8–8869✓ Hit
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYGReceptions0–50✓ Hit
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYGReceiving yards0–520✓ Hit
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYGRushing yards · estimate9–7314✓ Hit
Jameis Winston NYGPassing yards · estimate0–200did not playVoid
George Pickens DALReceptions1–73✓ Hit
George Pickens DALReceiving yards6–9128✓ Hit
Theo Johnson NYGReceptions1–61✓ Hit
Theo Johnson NYGReceiving yards2–729✓ Hit
Jake Ferguson DALReceptions0–52✓ Hit
Jake Ferguson DALReceiving yards0–526✓ Hit
CeeDee Lamb DALReceptions1–75✓ Hit
CeeDee Lamb DALReceiving yards7–8944✓ Hit
Dak Prescott DALRushing yards · estimate0–2414✓ Hit
Dak Prescott DALPassing yards · estimate45–291175✓ Hit

Touchdown chances: Cam Skattebo 43% ✓ Scored · Jaxson Dart 38% ✗ No TD · Javonte Williams 37% ✓ Scored · Devin Singletary 31% ✓ Scored · Ryan Flournoy 29% ✗ No TD · Malik Nabers 26% ✗ No TD · Tyrone Tracy Jr. 26% ✗ No TD · Jameis Winston 26% Void · George Pickens 22% ✗ No TD · Theo Johnson 18% ✗ No TD · Jake Ferguson 18% ✗ No TD · KaVontae Turpin 12% ✗ No TD · CeeDee Lamb 12% ✓ Scored · Gunner Olszewski 10% Void · Dak Prescott 8% ✗ No TD

Official final box scores (ESPN). Predictions exactly as published before each kickoff. Educational and paper-only — not betting advice. A range is not a bet: these are checks of how often what we published matched what happened.

Graded Mon, Sep 14, 3:47 PM ET · This week’s NFL predictions · NFL model record