Week 8: the team we favored won 1 of 1 games

• A hit when the team we gave the higher win chance won. A tie is void.
• Every total, margin and player number we publish comes with a range that 8 in 10 of our simulations landed inside. A hit is a final number inside that range, as it was shown on the page. About 8 in 10 should land inside: far more means our ranges were too wide, far fewer means too narrow.
• In each game, the player we gave the best chance to score a touchdown. A hit if the official record credits him with a rushing, receiving or return touchdown — throwing one does not count.
• A player with no line at all in the official box score did not play, so his predictions are void, not misses. A game that is not final yet is pending.
• Rushing and passing yards were shown as unvalidated estimates. They are graded the same way and labelled.
• A range can always be made to land 8 in 10 times by making it wider. So beside each success rate we show the typical miss (how far the middle of our range was from the final number) and the average width of the range. Getting better means both shrink while about 8 in 10 still land inside.
• Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

How we get better. A range can always be made to land 8 in 10 times by making it wider, so a higher success rate alone is not progress. Week over week we aim for a smaller typical miss and narrower ranges while about 8 in 10 still land inside — and for more winners than our own win chances expected.

For context, not counted above. On total points, our number was closer to the final than the sportsbooks’ in 0 games, theirs was closer in 0 (1 had no sportsbook total). Across the 17 players we gave a touchdown chance who played, our chances added up to about 4.3 scorers; 5 actually scored.