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NFL · CHI @ SEA · Simulation

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

CHI 20 — 26 SEA · win chance CHI 31.5% · SEA 65.5% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

34.8%CHI win in the simulated games

64.8%SEA win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

CHI 20 – 26 SEAmedian score · averages 20.44 – 25.62

45median total · 80% of games 30–63

SEA by 5median margin · 80% range: CHI by 13 to SEA by 23

43.6%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.4% · 5.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: SEA points minus CHI points (below 0 means CHI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (5). Range shown -51 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (45). Range shown 8 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CHI	9	20	33	20.44
SEA	13	26	38	25.62

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CHI median (80%)	SEA median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CHI wins it	SEA wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	34.5%	47.4%	18.1%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	35.4%	51.3%	13.3%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	33.4%	48.2%	18.4%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	11 (3–21)	34.8%	48.6%	16.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–23)	23 (13–36)	36.5%	56.6%	7.0%
2nd half	10 (0–18)	13 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	35.2%	56.4%	8.4%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CHI	SEA
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	207 (123–300)	225 (140–323)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	110 (52–185)	119 (59–200)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CHI	8.6%	25.0%	30.5%	21.9%	10.2%	3.9%
SEA	3.4%	14.6%	26.5%	27.3%	18.1%	10.1%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Caleb Williams QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	207 (123–300)	1.4	1.0

CHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
D'Andre Swift RB	8 (5–13)	31 (8–75)	0.3
Caleb Williams QB	6 (3–10)	26 (6–65)	0.2
Kyle Monangai RB	6 (3–10)	24 (4–62)	0.2
Roschon Johnson RB	2 (1–4)	6 (0–27)	0.1

CHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Luther Burden III WR	6 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	40 (8–89)	0.3
Colston Loveland TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	35 (7–82)	0.3
Rome Odunze WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	29 (3–74)	0.2
Kalif Raymond WR	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	18 (0–55)	0.1
D'Andre Swift RB	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	16 (0–52)	0.1
Roschon Johnson RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)	3 (0–28)	0.1

SEA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Sam Darnold QB	33 (24–43)	23 (16–30)	225 (140–323)	1.8	0.7

SEA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Emanuel Wilson RB	11 (6–16)	43 (13–92)	0.4
Zach Charbonnet RB	6 (3–9)	22 (4–60)	0.2
Sam Darnold QB	3 (1–6)	13 (1–42)	0.1
George Holani RB	3 (1–6)	9 (0–34)	0.1

SEA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	11 (7–16)	8 (4–12)	81 (33–148)	0.6
AJ Barner TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–61)	0.2
Cooper Kupp WR	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–57)	0.2
Rashid Shaheed WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–58)	0.2
Tory Horton WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–37)	0.1
George Holani RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–35)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	45.1%	11.9%	11.9%
Emanuel Wilson RB	SEA	41.4%	8.8%	11.1%
D'Andre Swift RB	CHI	36.1%	6.6%	8.5%
Zach Charbonnet RB	SEA	26.8%	3.5%	6.0%
Colston Loveland TE	CHI	25.7%	3.0%	5.7%
Luther Burden III WR	CHI	24.4%	2.8%	5.8%
Kyle Monangai RB	CHI	23.7%	2.3%	5.2%
AJ Barner TE	SEA	21.4%	2.5%	5.0%
Rashid Shaheed WR	SEA	21.4%	2.2%	4.8%
George Holani RB	SEA	20.3%	2.1%	4.7%
Rome Odunze WR	CHI	20.2%	1.8%	4.6%
Cooper Kupp WR	SEA	18.6%	1.9%	4.3%
Caleb Williams QB	CHI	15.0%	0.9%	3.3%
Kalif Raymond WR	CHI	14.6%	1.1%	3.1%
Roschon Johnson RB	CHI	13.2%	0.7%	2.6%
Tory Horton WR	SEA	10.3%	0.4%	2.3%

First touchdown by team: CHI 42.7% · SEA 57.0% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CHI 20 – 25 SEA

By quarter: CHI 10 / 7 / 0 / 3 · SEA 6 / 9 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–SEA)
1	CHI	80	td	2	80	7–0
1	SEA	46	fg	6	23	7–3
1	CHI	72	fg	6	67	10–3
1	SEA	72	fg	10	54	10–6
1	CHI	85	punt	3	28	10–6
1	SEA	98	td	8	98	10–12
2	CHI	71	punt	7	27	10–12
2	SEA	89	punt	3	14	10–12
2	CHI	68	punt	3	9	10–12
2	SEA	90	opp td	2	4	17–12
2	SEA	70	fg	11	50	17–15
2	SEA	52	td	3	52	17–22
3	CHI	71	punt	6	9	17–22
3	SEA	90	punt	6	24	17–22
3	CHI	67	punt	3	4	17–22
3	SEA	72	punt	5	8	17–22
3	CHI	81	fg miss	8	44	17–22
4	SEA	55	fg	5	45	17–25
4	CHI	70	punt	5	0	17–25
4	SEA	85	punt	3	30	17–25
4	CHI	80	punt	3	1	17–25
4	SEA	61	punt	4	22	17–25
4	CHI	79	fg	9	50	20–25
4	SEA	81	downs	8	80	20–25
4	CHI	99	end half	2	36	20–25

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CHI 29 – 34 SEA

By quarter: CHI 7 / 7 / 5 / 10 · SEA 14 / 3 / 3 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–SEA)
1	SEA	73	td	3	73	0–7
1	CHI	75	punt	3	39	0–7
1	SEA	99	punt	6	0	0–7
1	CHI	46	opp td	3	-3	0–14
1	CHI	70	td	3	70	7–14
1	SEA	66	punt	3	2	7–14
1	CHI	79	punt	3	7	7–14
1	SEA	76	punt	3	33	7–14
1	CHI	93	punt	3	26	7–14
2	SEA	92	turnover	6	36	7–14
2	CHI	41	turnover	10	0	7–14
2	SEA	60	fg	4	21	7–17
2	CHI	73	td	2	73	14–17
2	SEA	65	turnover	6	17	14–17
2	CHI	45	punt	5	2	14–17
2	SEA	99	end half	3	0	14–17
2	CHI	75	punt	3	41	14–17
3	SEA	99	safety	1	-1	16–17
3	CHI	57	turnover	5	5	16–17
3	SEA	42	fg	10	25	16–20
3	CHI	73	fg	12	47	19–20
3	SEA	74	td	6	74	19–27
4	CHI	83	punt	3	34	19–27
4	SEA	99	punt	4	0	19–27
4	CHI	44	fg	4	43	22–27
4	SEA	67	punt	3	-8	22–27
4	CHI	65	punt	3	2	22–27
4	SEA	22	td	9	22	22–34
4	CHI	52	td	5	52	29–34

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CHI 12 – 17 SEA

By quarter: CHI 0 / 6 / 0 / 6 · SEA 0 / 7 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–SEA)
1	CHI	65	punt	5	16	0–0
1	SEA	81	punt	7	4	0–0
1	CHI	85	punt	5	14	0–0
1	SEA	63	punt	3	2	0–0
1	CHI	70	punt	4	7	0–0
1	SEA	77	downs	4	33	0–0
1	CHI	56	punt	3	26	0–0
2	SEA	99	td	13	99	0–7
2	CHI	65	punt	3	1	0–7
2	SEA	71	punt	3	7	0–7
2	CHI	89	fg	3	48	3–7
2	SEA	67	punt	3	-19	3–7
2	CHI	51	fg	3	50	6–7
2	SEA	79	punt	9	-8	6–7
2	CHI	48	end half	6	-1	6–7
2	SEA	72	td	14	72	6–14
3	CHI	75	downs	11	20	6–14
3	SEA	76	turnover	6	57	6–14
4	CHI	81	punt	3	7	6–14
4	SEA	66	punt	3	20	6–14
4	CHI	98	fg	4	85	9–14
4	SEA	86	fg	7	58	9–17
4	CHI	66	fg	12	65	12–17
4	SEA	64	end half	3	-8	12–17

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 27, 12:51 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET
Seed	82daa818 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means SEA 25.56 / CHI 20.57
Availability	injuries as of Oct 27, 11:21 AM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 11:21 AM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873036:30e564b83c9deab0

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.