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MLB model audit · graded against final box scores

45.8%

hit rate · 142–150 on 310 decisive picks

Every model lean is logged when the board is generated and graded against the verified MLB box score after the game is final. 15 of 15 games settled for 2026-07-04. Hit rate excludes pushes and No Plays. Educational analytics — not betting advice.

Final games settled

of 15 on slate

Wins · Losses

142 · 150

no pushes

Pending games

all final

Stat unavailable

player didn't appear

By market

Strikeouts
13–10· 23 dec56.5%
Hits
89–91–17P· 197 dec49.4%
Total Bases
40–49–1P· 90 dec44.9%

By confidence

High
51–61–5P· 117 dec45.5%
Medium
28–21–2P· 51 dec57.1%
Low
63–68–11P· 142 dec48.1%

By game

PIT @ WSH
14–10–2P· 26 dec58.3%
MIN @ NYY
11–16–1P· 28 dec40.7%
DET @ TEX
8–14–2P· 24 dec36.4%
TOR @ SEA
9–12–1P· 22 dec42.9%
TB @ HOU
17–2–2P· 21 dec89.5%
CWS @ CLE
10–14–1P· 25 dec41.7%
BAL @ CIN
14–10–4P· 28 dec58.3%
STL @ CHC
12–11–1P· 24 dec52.2%
NYM @ ATL
12–13· 25 dec48.0%
PHI @ KC
8–20· 28 dec28.6%
SF @ COL
1–0· 1 dec100.0%
BOS @ LAA
11–10–2P· 23 dec52.4%
MIA @ ATH
0–2· 2 dec0.0%
MIL @ AZ
14–15–2P· 31 dec48.3%
SD @ LAD
1–1· 2 dec50.0%

MLB model audit notes

What the MLB settled data has been saying

Through 2026-07-04. 16567 decisive picks counted.

Signal

Hits strongest, Total bases weakest

MLB Hits hit at 53.8% on 6902 picks; Total bases hit at 44.7% on 3171. Markets to keep auditing in the next slates.

Signal

Lifetime MLB settled hit rate

50.5% on 16567 decisive picks. Pushes excluded; pending and insufficient-data rows never counted. The audit is still on an early sample — every new settled slate widens the denominator.

Over / Under split

Over6193–6036 · 50.6%on 12229
Under2170–2168 · 50.0%on 4338

Market split

H+R+RBI2841–2827 · 50.1%on 5668
Hits3712–3190 · 53.8%on 6902
Strikeouts392–434 · 47.5%on 826
Total bases1418–1753 · 44.7%on 3171

Edge band

0–5pp4376–4107 · 51.6%on 8483
5–10pp2029–1927 · 51.3%on 3956
10–15pp1143–1220 · 48.4%on 2363
15–25pp726–843 · 46.3%on 1569
25pp+89–107 · 45.4%on 196

Open the audit deep-dive

Top hits

Junior CamineroTotal Bases · Over 1.5actual 5 · edge 35.3% · Low
Logan GilbertStrikeouts · Over 5.5actual 7 · edge 35.1% · Low
Brandon WoodruffStrikeouts · Over 4.5actual 6 · edge 25.5% · Low
Braxton AshcraftStrikeouts · Over 5.5actual 7 · edge 24.6% · Low
Griffin CanningStrikeouts · Under 4.5actual 4 · edge 22.1% · Low
Cooper IngleHits · Under 0.5actual 0 · edge 17.5% · High
Garrett MitchellTotal Bases · Over 1.5actual 3 · edge 17.0% · High
Anthony SeiglerHits · Over 0.5actual 1 · edge 16.8% · High

Biggest misses

Alec BohmTotal Bases · Under 1.5proj 1.21 · actual 6 · Low
Chris SaleStrikeouts · Over 7.5proj 7.49 · actual 3 · Low
Parker MessickStrikeouts · Over 6.5proj 7.21 · actual 3 · High
Yoshinobu YamamotoStrikeouts · Under 6.5proj 5.82 · actual 10 · Medium
Shota ImanagaStrikeouts · Under 4.5proj 4.45 · actual 8 · High
Sandy AlcantaraStrikeouts · Under 4.5proj 4.48 · actual 8 · High
Christian YelichTotal Bases · Under 1.5proj 0.99 · actual 4 · High
Merrill KellyStrikeouts · Under 3.5proj 3.16 · actual 6 · High

Player audit · projection vs actual

Ben Rice

NYY · MIN @ NYY

100%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· High
Proj 0.75 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.7% · 1 book
Hit823526

Total Bases

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.60 · Actual 0 · Edge -3.0% · 1 book
Hit823526

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · CWS @ CLE

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.90 · Actual 2 · Edge -1.5% · 1 book
Hit824415

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.31 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.9% · 1 book
Hit824415

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · BOS @ LAA

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.19 · Actual 1 · Edge +7.9% · 1 book
Hit824012

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.68 · Actual 2 · Edge +8.4% · 1 book
Hit824012

Colson Montgomery

CWS · CWS @ CLE

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.80 · Actual 2 · Edge -1.7% · 1 book
Hit824415

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.52 · Actual 6 · Edge +6.5% · 1 book
Hit824415

Drake Baldwin

ATL · ATL @ NYM

100%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· High
Proj 0.64 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.3% · 1 book
Hit824903

Total Bases

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.02 · Actual 0 · Edge +2.4% · 1 book
Hit824903

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · MIL @ AZ

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.96 · Actual 2 · Edge +3.4% · 1 book
Hit825063

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.92 · Actual 3 · Edge +17.0% · 1 book
Hit825063

James Wood

WSH · WSH @ PIT

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.02 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.8% · 1 book
Hit822716

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.07 · Actual 4 · Edge +13.5% · 1 book
Hit822716

JJ Wetherholt

STL · STL @ CHC

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.97 · Actual 3 · Edge +2.1% · 1 book
Hit824658

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.24 · Actual 7 · Edge +3.1% · 1 book
Hit824658

Jordan Walker

STL · STL @ CHC

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.02 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.1% · 1 book
Hit824658

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.66 · Actual 2 · Edge +9.9% · 1 book
Hit824658

Josh Jung

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.03 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.1% · 1 book
Hit822882

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.67 · Actual 2 · Edge +13.4% · 1 book
Hit822882

Junior Caminero

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.30 · Actual 2 · Edge +12.3% · 1 book
Hit824171

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 3.31 · Actual 5 · Edge +35.3% · 1 book
Hit824171

Nick Gonzales

PIT · WSH @ PIT

100%

Hits

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.22 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.7% · 1 book
Hit822716

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.57 · Actual 2 · Edge +7.1% · 1 book
Hit822716

Ozzie Albies

ATL · ATL @ NYM

100%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· Medium
Proj 0.87 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.8% · 1 book
Hit824903

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.60 · Actual 2 · Edge +2.8% · 1 book
Hit824903

Pete Alonso

BAL · BAL @ CIN

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.86 · Actual 3 · Edge -1.9% · 1 book
Hit824499

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.52 · Actual 4 · Edge +4.2% · 1 book
Hit824499

Riley Greene

DET · DET @ TEX

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.97 · Actual 2 · Edge +2.7% · 1 book
Hit822882

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.81 · Actual 5 · Edge +13.9% · 1 book
Hit822882

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · WSH @ PIT

100%

Hits

✅
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.18 · Actual 2 · Edge +3.8% · 1 book
Hit822716

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.02 · Actual 2 · Edge +10.7% · 1 book
Hit822716

Sal Frelick

MIL · MIL @ AZ

100%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· Medium
Proj 0.94 · Actual 0 · Edge +2.8% · 1 book
Hit825063

Total Bases

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.28 · Actual 0 · Edge -2.9% · 1 book
Hit825063

Sal Stewart

CIN · BAL @ CIN

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.08 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.7% · 1 book
Hit824499

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.09 · Actual 2 · Edge +15.6% · 1 book
Hit824499

Trevor Larnach

MIN · MIN @ NYY

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.05 · Actual 2 · Edge +4.1% · 1 book
Hit823526

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.58 · Actual 5 · Edge +11.5% · 1 book
Hit823526

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · SEA @ TOR

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.89 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.8% · 1 book
Hit823118

Total Bases

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.09 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.9% · 1 book
Hit823118

William Contreras

MIL · MIL @ AZ

100%

Hits

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.07 · Actual 2 · Edge -2.5% · 1 book
Hit825063

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.60 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.1% · 1 book
Hit825063

Willson Contreras

BOS · BOS @ LAA

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.06 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.6% · 1 book
Hit824012

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.95 · Actual 4 · Edge +9.3% · 1 book
Hit824012

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.07 · Actual 3 · Edge +2.0% · 1 book
Hit824171

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.98 · Actual 9 · Edge +11.1% · 1 book
Hit824171

Adley Rutschman

BAL · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.77 · Actual 2 · Edge -0.2% · 1 book
Miss824499

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.23 · Actual 4 · Edge +1.7% · 1 book
Hit824499

Alec Burleson

STL · STL @ CHC

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.84 · Actual 2 · Edge -1.7% · 1 book
Miss824658

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.42 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.4% · 1 book
Hit824658

Alex Bregman

CHC · STL @ CHC

50%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.83 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.9% · 1 book
Hit824658

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.28 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.8% · 1 book
Miss824658

Blaze Alexander

BAL · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.90 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.7% · 1 book
Hit824499

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.40 · Actual 1 · Edge +6.5% · 1 book
Miss824499

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · KC @ PHI

50%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.12 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.8% · 1 book
Hit824092

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.97 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.1% · 1 book
Miss824092

Brandon Lowe

PIT · WSH @ PIT

50%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· Medium
Proj 0.98 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.5% · 1 book
Hit822716

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.88 · Actual 1 · Edge +0.3% · 1 book
Miss822716

Brice Turang

MIL · MIL @ AZ

50%

Hits

❌
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.06 · Actual 3 · Edge -3.0% · 1 book
Miss825063

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.77 · Actual 5 · Edge +5.0% · 1 book
Hit825063

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · WSH @ PIT

50%

Hits

❌
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.01 · Actual 2 · Edge +1.0% · 1 book
Miss822716

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.65 · Actual 2 · Edge +0.4% · 1 book
Hit822716

Bryce Harper

PHI · KC @ PHI

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.09 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.6% · 1 book
Hit824092

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.10 · Actual 1 · Edge +11.8% · 1 book
Miss824092

Bryson Stott

PHI · KC @ PHI

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.03 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.0% · 1 book
Hit824092

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.48 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.8% · 1 book
Miss824092

Chase DeLauter

CLE · CWS @ CLE

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.20 · Actual 1 · Edge +6.5% · 1 book
Hit824415

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.66 · Actual 1 · Edge +9.2% · 1 book
Miss824415

Christian Yelich

MIL · MIL @ AZ

50%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· High
Proj 0.68 · Actual 1 · Edge +10.0% · 1 book
Hit825063

Total Bases

❌
Under 1.5· High
Proj 0.99 · Actual 4 · Edge +5.8% · 1 book
Miss825063

Corbin Carroll

AZ · MIL @ AZ

50%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.85 · Actual 0 · Edge -2.0% · 1 book
Hit825063

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.45 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.5% · 1 book
Miss825063

Dominic Canzone

SEA · SEA @ TOR

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.60 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.6% · 1 book
Miss823118

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.30 · Actual 5 · Edge +4.0% · 1 book
Hit823118

Dylan Crews

WSH · WSH @ PIT

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.00 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.8% · 1 book
Hit822716

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.31 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.4% · 1 book
Miss822716

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

❌
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 0.99 · Actual 2 · Edge -0.4% · 1 book
Miss824499

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.61 · Actual 2 · Edge -1.1% · 1 book
Hit824499

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · WSH @ PIT

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.43 · Actual 1 · Edge +13.7% · 1 book
Hit822716

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 2.95 · Actual 1 · Edge +29.3% · 1 book
Miss822716

Gabriel Moreno

AZ · MIL @ AZ

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.03 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.6% · 1 book
Hit825063

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.28 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.3% · 1 book
Miss825063

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 0.97 · Actual 1 · Edge -2.1% · 1 book
Hit824499

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.55 · Actual 1 · Edge +0.0% · 1 book
Miss824499

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · KC @ PHI

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.69 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.4% · 1 book
Miss824092

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.14 · Actual 4 · Edge -3.3% · 1 book
Hit824092

Jackson Chourio

MIL · MIL @ AZ

50%

Hits

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.17 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.8% · 1 book
Miss825063

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.05 · Actual 4 · Edge +5.6% · 1 book
Hit825063

Jasson Domínguez

NYY · MIN @ NYY

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.75 · Actual 2 · Edge +1.7% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.31 · Actual 6 · Edge +0.7% · 1 book
Hit823526

JJ Bleday

CIN · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.67 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.4% · 1 book
Miss824499

Total Bases

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.11 · Actual 1 · Edge -2.1% · 1 book
Hit824499

Josh Bell

MIN · MIN @ NYY

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.74 · Actual 3 · Edge +1.4% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.54 · Actual 10 · Edge +6.3% · 1 book
Hit823526

Josh Naylor

SEA · SEA @ TOR

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.99 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.1% · 1 book
Hit823118

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.31 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.4% · 1 book
Miss823118

Juan Soto

NYM · ATL @ NYM

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.93 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.3% · 1 book
Hit824903

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.71 · Actual 1 · Edge +9.9% · 1 book
Miss824903

Kody Clemens

MIN · MIN @ NYY

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.85 · Actual 2 · Edge -2.9% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.94 · Actual 5 · Edge +10.3% · 1 book
Hit823526

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · KC @ PHI

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.82 · Actual 3 · Edge -1.1% · 1 book
Miss824092

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.57 · Actual 3 · Edge -0.4% · 1 book
Hit824092

Matt Olson

ATL · ATL @ NYM

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.08 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.7% · 1 book
Hit824903

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.04 · Actual 1 · Edge +15.4% · 1 book
Miss824903

Michael Busch

CHC · STL @ CHC

50%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.78 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.3% · 1 book
Hit824658

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.57 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.7% · 1 book
Miss824658

Michael Harris II

ATL · ATL @ NYM

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.99 · Actual 3 · Edge -2.0% · 1 book
Miss824903

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.60 · Actual 6 · Edge +5.7% · 1 book
Hit824903

Nathaniel Lowe

CIN · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.66 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.1% · 1 book
Hit824499

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.12 · Actual 0 · Edge -2.5% · 1 book
Miss824499

Nico Hoerner

CHC · STL @ CHC

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.03 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.4% · 1 book
Hit824658

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.48 · Actual 1 · Edge +9.0% · 1 book
Miss824658

Nolan Schanuel

LAA · BOS @ LAA

50%

Hits

✅
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.04 · Actual 0 · Edge -2.5% · 1 book
Hit824012

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.47 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.1% · 1 book
Miss824012

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · MIN @ NYY

50%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.83 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.8% · 1 book
Hit823526

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.62 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.8% · 1 book
Miss823526

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · STL @ CHC

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.09 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.5% · 1 book
Hit824658

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.94 · Actual 1 · Edge +11.3% · 1 book
Miss824658

Randy Arozarena

SEA · SEA @ TOR

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.86 · Actual 3 · Edge +2.0% · 1 book
Miss823118

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.40 · Actual 7 · Edge +2.6% · 1 book
Hit823118

Royce Lewis

MIN · MIN @ NYY

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.88 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.4% · 1 book
Hit823526

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.48 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.8% · 1 book
Miss823526

Samuel Basallo

BAL · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.82 · Actual 1 · Edge -3.1% · 1 book
Miss824499

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.60 · Actual 4 · Edge +8.2% · 1 book
Hit824499

Taylor Ward

BAL · BAL @ CIN

50%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.92 · Actual 1 · Edge +0.9% · 1 book
Hit824499

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.31 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.0% · 1 book
Miss824499

Travis Bazzana

CLE · CWS @ CLE

50%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.82 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.7% · 1 book
Hit824415

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.18 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.5% · 1 book
Miss824415

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · BOS @ LAA

50%

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.86 · Actual 1 · Edge -2.2% · 1 book
Miss824012

Total Bases

✅
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.58 · Actual 2 · Edge +7.2% · 1 book
Hit824012

Alec Bohm

PHI · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Under 1.5· High
Proj 0.71 · Actual 2 · Edge +11.3% · 1 book
Miss824092

Total Bases

❌
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 1.21 · Actual 6 · Edge -3.1% · 1 book
Miss824092

Bo Bichette

NYM · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.01 · Actual 1 · Edge -3.0% · 1 book
Miss824903

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.51 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.0% · 1 book
Miss824903

Brandon Marsh

PHI · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.33 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.1% · 1 book
Miss824092

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 2.57 · Actual 0 · Edge +20.3% · 1 book
Miss824092

Brandon Nimmo

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.11 · Actual 0 · Edge +6.7% · 1 book
Miss822882

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.86 · Actual 0 · Edge +14.2% · 1 book
Miss822882

Brooks Lee

MIN · MIN @ NYY

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.01 · Actual 0 · Edge -1.1% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.71 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.4% · 1 book
Miss823526

Caleb Durbin

BOS · BOS @ LAA

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.88 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.1% · 1 book
Miss824012

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.66 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.6% · 1 book
Miss824012

Chase Meidroth

CWS · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.01 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.0% · 1 book
Miss824415

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.42 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.5% · 1 book
Miss824415

Cody Bellinger

NYY · MIN @ NYY

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.56 · Actual 1 · Edge +11.1% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

❌
Under 1.5· Low
Proj 0.93 · Actual 2 · Edge +0.9% · 1 book
Miss823526

Dillon Dingler

DET · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 1.11 · Actual 0 · Edge +2.0% · 1 book
Miss822882

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.00 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.3% · 1 book
Miss822882

Ernie Clement

TOR · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.11 · Actual 0 · Edge +3.1% · 1 book
Miss823118

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.48 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.7% · 1 book
Miss823118

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ · MIL @ AZ

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.87 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.7% · 1 book
Miss825063

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.31 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.7% · 1 book
Miss825063

Jac Caglianone

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.91 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.2% · 1 book
Miss824092

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.96 · Actual 0 · Edge +18.0% · 1 book
Miss824092

Jake Bauers

MIL · MIL @ AZ

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.96 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.4% · 1 book
Miss825063

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.80 · Actual 0 · Edge +11.8% · 1 book
Miss825063

Jake Mangum

PIT · WSH @ PIT

Hits

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.21 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.1% · 1 book
Miss822716

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Medium
Proj 1.40 · Actual 0 · Edge +3.8% · 1 book
Miss822716

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · MIN @ NYY

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.69 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.3% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.20 · Actual 1 · Edge -3.5% · 1 book
Miss823526

Kerry Carpenter

DET · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.73 · Actual 1 · Edge -2.2% · 1 book
Miss822882

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.60 · Actual 1 · Edge +6.6% · 1 book
Miss822882

Ketel Marte

AZ · MIL @ AZ

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.24 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.5% · 1 book
Miss825063

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 2.53 · Actual 0 · Edge +23.3% · 1 book
Miss825063

Kevin McGonigle

DET · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.09 · Actual 0 · Edge +6.0% · 1 book
Miss822882

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.55 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.3% · 1 book
Miss822882

Konnor Griffin

PIT · WSH @ PIT

Hits

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.23 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.3% · 1 book
Miss822716

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.89 · Actual 1 · Edge +6.2% · 1 book
Miss822716

Miguel Vargas

CWS · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.10 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.1% · 1 book
Miss824415

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.36 · Actual 0 · Edge +19.3% · 1 book
Miss824415

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · STL @ CHC

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.11 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.3% · 1 book
Miss824658

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.01 · Actual 0 · Edge +18.2% · 1 book
Miss824658

Trea Turner

PHI · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 1.5· Low
Proj 1.29 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.5% · 1 book
Miss824092

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 2.16 · Actual 1 · Edge +12.0% · 1 book
Miss824092

Trent Grisham

NYY · MIN @ NYY

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 1.16 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.4% · 1 book
Miss823526

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.98 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.1% · 1 book
Miss823526

Zach Neto

LAA · BOS @ LAA

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.90 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.2% · 1 book
Miss824012

Total Bases

❌
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.58 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.5% · 1 book
Miss824012

Alex Jackson

MIN · MIN @ NYY

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.92 · Actual 1 · Edge +13.9% · 1 book
Hit823526

Anthony Seigler

BOS · BOS @ LAA

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.10 · Actual 1 · Edge +16.8% · 1 book
Hit824012

Braden Montgomery

CWS · CWS @ CLE

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.83 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.2% · 1 book
Hit824415

Brandon Woodruff

MIL · MIL @ AZ

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 4.5· Low
Proj 5.61 · Actual 6 · Edge +25.5% · 1 book
Hit825063

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT · WSH @ PIT

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 5.5· Low
Proj 7.63 · Actual 7 · Edge +24.6% · 1 book
Hit822716

Brett Baty

NYM · ATL @ NYM

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.53 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.5% · 1 book
Hit824903

Carson Benge

NYM · ATL @ NYM

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.09 · Actual 1 · Edge +8.9% · 1 book
Hit824903

Cedric Mullins

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.92 · Actual 1 · Edge +7.7% · 1 book
Hit824171

Christian Walker

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.84 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.3% · 1 book
Hit824171

Cole Young

SEA · SEA @ TOR

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.02 · Actual 1 · Edge +11.6% · 1 book
Hit823118

Colt Emerson

SEA · SEA @ TOR

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.63 · Actual 2 · Edge +0.7% · 1 book
Hit823118

Colton Cowser

BAL · BAL @ CIN

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.58 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.4% · 1 book
Hit824499

Cooper Ingle

CLE · CWS @ CLE

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.20 · Actual 0 · Edge +17.5% · 1 book
Hit824415

Curtis Mead

WSH · WSH @ PIT

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.81 · Actual 1 · Edge -2.1% · 1 book
Hit822716

Daylen Lile

WSH · WSH @ PIT

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.05 · Actual 2 · Edge +6.5% · 1 book
Hit822716

Denzer Guzman

LAA · BOS @ LAA

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.00 · Actual 1 · Edge +8.3% · 1 book
Hit824012

Drew Rasmussen

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Under 5.5· Low
Proj 5.76 · Actual 2 · Edge +1.0% · 1 book
Hit824171

Evan Carter

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.67 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.2% · 1 book
Hit822882

Francisco Lindor

NYM · ATL @ NYM

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.82 · Actual 2 · Edge -0.1% · 1 book
Hit824903

Griffin Canning

SD · LAD @ SD

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Under 4.5· Low
Proj 3.17 · Actual 4 · Edge +22.1% · 1 book
Hit823932

Hunter Brown

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Under 5.5· Medium
Proj 5.63 · Actual 3 · Edge +2.8% · 1 book
Hit824171

Ian Happ

CHC · STL @ CHC

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.72 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.1% · 1 book
Hit824658

Isaac Paredes

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.00 · Actual 1 · Edge +10.5% · 1 book
Hit824171

Jackson Holliday

BAL · BAL @ CIN

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.47 · Actual 0 · Edge +3.3% · 1 book
Hit824499

James Outman

DET · DET @ TEX

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.40 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.9% · 1 book
Hit822882

Joc Pederson

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.84 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.9% · 1 book
Hit822882

Joey Bart

ATL · ATL @ NYM

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.79 · Actual 1 · Edge +7.6% · 1 book
Hit824903

Jonathan Aranda

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.22 · Actual 1 · Edge +13.9% · 1 book
Hit824171

Jose Altuve

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.84 · Actual 2 · Edge -0.6% · 1 book
Hit824171

Josh Lowe

LAA · BOS @ LAA

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.88 · Actual 1 · Edge +10.6% · 1 book
Hit824012

Justin Crawford

PHI · KC @ PHI

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.94 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.6% · 1 book
Hit824092

Kyle Leahy

STL · STL @ CHC

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 4.5· High
Proj 4.63 · Actual 6 · Edge +9.5% · 1 book
Hit824658

Logan Gilbert

SEA · SEA @ TOR

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 5.5· Low
Proj 7.42 · Actual 7 · Edge +35.1% · 1 book
Hit823118

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ · MIL @ AZ

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.81 · Actual 1 · Edge +0.5% · 1 book
Hit825063

Luke Raley

SEA · SEA @ TOR

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.49 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.9% · 1 book
Hit823118

Max Kepler

AZ · MIL @ AZ

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.40 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.8% · 1 book
Hit825063

Michael Conforto

CHC · STL @ CHC

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.66 · Actual 2 · Edge +1.3% · 1 book
Hit824658

Michael Wacha

KC · KC @ PHI

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 4.5· High
Proj 4.97 · Actual 7 · Edge +6.4% · 1 book
Hit824092

Nick Allen

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.54 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.6% · 1 book
Hit824171

Richie Palacios

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.64 · Actual 2 · Edge +1.6% · 1 book
Hit824171

Robbie Ray

SF · SF @ COL

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Under 5.5· Medium
Proj 5.10 · Actual 4 · Edge +4.2% · 1 book
Hit824334

Ryan McMahon

NYY · MIN @ NYY

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.61 · Actual 0 · Edge -1.0% · 1 book
Hit823526

Sean Burke

CWS · CWS @ CLE

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 5.5· High
Proj 6.55 · Actual 11 · Edge +14.7% · 1 book
Hit824415

Sean Manaea

NYM · ATL @ NYM

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Under 4.5· High
Proj 3.98 · Actual 4 · Edge +9.2% · 1 book
Hit824903

Sonny Gray

BOS · BOS @ LAA

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Over 6.5· Low
Proj 6.65 · Actual 7 · Edge +1.1% · 1 book
Hit824012

Starling Marte

KC · KC @ PHI

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.75 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.3% · 1 book
Hit824092

Steven Kwan

CLE · CWS @ CLE

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.88 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.0% · 1 book
Hit824415

Taylor Trammell

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.59 · Actual 1 · Edge +0.5% · 1 book
Hit824171

Taylor Walls

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.81 · Actual 1 · Edge +9.5% · 1 book
Hit824171

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.52 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.7% · 1 book
Hit824171

Wade Meckler

LAA · BOS @ LAA

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.91 · Actual 1 · Edge +8.7% · 1 book
Hit824012

Yainer Diaz

HOU · TB @ HOU

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.86 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.4% · 1 book
Hit824171

Zach McKinstry

DET · DET @ TEX

100%

Hits

✅
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.86 · Actual 1 · Edge +5.3% · 1 book
Hit822882

Zack Littell

WSH · WSH @ PIT

100%

Strikeouts

✅
Under 3.5· Low
Proj 3.13 · Actual 3 · Edge -2.6% · 1 book
Hit822716

A.J. Ewing

NYM · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.89 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.5% · 1 book
Miss824903

Aaron Civale

ATH · MIA @ ATH

Strikeouts

❌
Under 3.5· High
Proj 3.19 · Actual 6 · Edge +9.1% · 1 book
Miss824983

Alejandro Osuna

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.91 · Actual 0 · Edge +10.4% · 1 book
Miss822882

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · BOS @ LAA

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.51 · Actual 1 · Edge -3.3% · 1 book
Miss824012

Austin Riley

ATL · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.67 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.2% · 1 book
Miss824903

Brandon Valenzuela

TOR · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.66 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.0% · 1 book
Miss823118

Brandon Young

BAL · BAL @ CIN

Strikeouts

❌
Under 4.5· Low
Proj 4.72 · Actual 5 · Edge -1.4% · 1 book
Miss824499

Cal Raleigh

SEA · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.55 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.4% · 1 book
Miss823118

Cam Smith

HOU · TB @ HOU

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.83 · Actual 0 · Edge +3.9% · 1 book
Miss824171

Carter Jensen

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.04 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.1% · 1 book
Miss824092

Chris Sale

ATL · ATL @ NYM

Strikeouts

❌
Over 7.5· Low
Proj 7.49 · Actual 3 · Edge +1.2% · 1 book
Miss824903

CJ Abrams

WSH · WSH @ PIT

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.86 · Actual 0 · Edge +2.0% · 1 book
Miss822716

Colt Keith

DET · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.67 · Actual 1 · Edge -3.4% · 1 book
Miss822882

Cooper Pratt

MIL · MIL @ AZ

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.38 · Actual 1 · Edge +10.6% · 1 book
Miss825063

Dansby Swanson

CHC · STL @ CHC

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.01 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.8% · 1 book
Miss824658

Daulton Varsho

TOR · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.96 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.0% · 1 book
Miss823118

Drew Romo

CWS · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.26 · Actual 1 · Edge +10.9% · 1 book
Miss824415

Eli White

ATL · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.46 · Actual 2 · Edge +6.6% · 1 book
Miss824903

Eric Wagaman

NYM · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.37 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.9% · 1 book
Miss824903

Ezequiel Duran

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.08 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.7% · 1 book
Miss822882

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.81 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.2% · 1 book
Miss824903

Gabriel Arias

CLE · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.64 · Actual 0 · Edge -1.6% · 1 book
Miss824415

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

PHI · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.55 · Actual 2 · Edge +1.4% · 1 book
Miss824092

Hunter Feduccia

TB · TB @ HOU

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.58 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.7% · 1 book
Miss824171

Isaac Collins

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.82 · Actual 0 · Edge +4.0% · 1 book
Miss824092

J.P. Crawford

SEA · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.84 · Actual 0 · Edge -0.6% · 1 book
Miss823118

Jack Flaherty

DET · DET @ TEX

Strikeouts

❌
Over 5.5· Low
Proj 5.56 · Actual 5 · Edge -1.7% · 1 book
Miss822882

Jo Adell

LAA · BOS @ LAA

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.77 · Actual 0 · Edge -2.4% · 1 book
Miss824012

Jorge Mateo

ATL · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.42 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.0% · 1 book
Miss824903

Jorge Soler

LAA · BOS @ LAA

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.75 · Actual 0 · Edge -1.0% · 1 book
Miss824012

Junior Perez

CWS · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.50 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.2% · 1 book
Miss824415

Kahlil Watson

CLE · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.03 · Actual 0 · Edge +10.9% · 1 book
Miss824415

Kameron Misner

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.81 · Actual 0 · Edge +14.2% · 1 book
Miss824092

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.04 · Actual 0 · Edge +11.9% · 1 book
Miss823118

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.60 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.4% · 1 book
Miss824415

Lane Thomas

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.55 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.4% · 1 book
Miss824092

Lars Nootbaar

STL · STL @ CHC

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.12 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.9% · 1 book
Miss824658

Luke Keaschall

MIN · MIN @ NYY

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.68 · Actual 1 · Edge -1.7% · 1 book
Miss823526

Mark Vientos

NYM · ATL @ NYM

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.54 · Actual 2 · Edge +3.7% · 1 book
Miss824903

Merrill Kelly

AZ · MIL @ AZ

Strikeouts

❌
Under 3.5· High
Proj 3.16 · Actual 6 · Edge +12.1% · 1 book
Miss825063

Michael Massey

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.84 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.5% · 1 book
Miss824092

Miguel Amaya

CHC · STL @ CHC

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.65 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.3% · 1 book
Miss824658

Nathan Lukes

TOR · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.87 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.1% · 1 book
Miss823118

Nick Loftin

KC · KC @ PHI

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.62 · Actual 1 · Edge +0.9% · 1 book
Miss824092

Nicky Lopez

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.07 · Actual 0 · Edge +16.7% · 1 book
Miss822882

Nolan Arenado

AZ · MIL @ AZ

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.91 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.7% · 1 book
Miss825063

Parker Messick

CLE · CWS @ CLE

Strikeouts

❌
Over 6.5· High
Proj 7.21 · Actual 3 · Edge +14.6% · 1 book
Miss824415

Randal Grichuk

CWS · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.60 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.5% · 1 book
Miss824415

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · MIN @ NYY

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.80 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.3% · 1 book
Miss823526

Sam Antonacci

CWS · CWS @ CLE

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.16 · Actual 0 · Edge +16.0% · 1 book
Miss824415

Sandy Alcantara

MIA · MIA @ ATH

Strikeouts

❌
Under 4.5· High
Proj 4.48 · Actual 8 · Edge +7.4% · 1 book
Miss824983

Shota Imanaga

CHC · STL @ CHC

Strikeouts

❌
Under 4.5· High
Proj 4.45 · Actual 8 · Edge +5.3% · 1 book
Miss824658

Spencer Torkelson

DET · DET @ TEX

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.76 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.4% · 1 book
Miss822882

TJ Friedl

CIN · BAL @ CIN

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.49 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.1% · 1 book
Miss824499

Tommy Troy

AZ · MIL @ AZ

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.67 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.2% · 1 book
Miss825063

Tyler Callihan

PIT · WSH @ PIT

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.52 · Actual 1 · Edge +3.8% · 1 book
Miss822716

Tyler Heineman

LAA · BOS @ LAA

Hits

❌
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.52 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.4% · 1 book
Miss824012

Victor Robles

SEA · SEA @ TOR

Hits

❌
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.60 · Actual 1 · Edge -0.1% · 1 book
Miss823118

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD · LAD @ SD

Strikeouts

❌
Under 6.5· Medium
Proj 5.82 · Actual 10 · Edge +2.5% · 1 book
Miss823932

Zebby Matthews

MIN · MIN @ NYY

Strikeouts

❌
Over 5.5· Low
Proj 5.23 · Actual 5 · Edge -1.5% · 1 book
Miss823526

Blaze Jordan

STL · STL @ CHC

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.72 · Actual — · Edge +1.1% · 1 book
Push824658

Chandler Simpson

TB · TB @ HOU

002

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· High
Proj 1.23 · Actual — · Edge +7.6% · 1 book
Push824171

Total Bases

➖
Over 1.5· High
Proj 1.53 · Actual — · Edge +8.8% · 1 book
Push824171

David Hamilton

MIL · MIL @ AZ

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.70 · Actual — · Edge +0.0% · 1 book
Push825063

Dylan Beavers

BAL · BAL @ CIN

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.70 · Actual — · Edge -1.1% · 1 book
Push824499

Edwin Arroyo

CIN · BAL @ CIN

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.75 · Actual — · Edge -1.7% · 1 book
Push824499

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · DET @ TEX

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.91 · Actual — · Edge +13.4% · 1 book
Push822882

Jacob Young

WSH · WSH @ PIT

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.63 · Actual — · Edge -3.4% · 1 book
Push822716

Jake Burger

$TEX logo$ TEX · DET @ TEX

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.80 · Actual — · Edge -2.3% · 1 book
Push822882

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · WSH @ PIT

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· High
Proj 0.91 · Actual — · Edge +6.0% · 1 book
Push822716

Myles Straw

TOR · SEA @ TOR

001

—

Hits

➖
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.45 · Actual — · Edge +0.2% · 1 book
Push823118

Nate Eaton

BOS · BOS @ LAA

001

—

Hits

➖
Under 0.5· High
Proj 0.38 · Actual — · Edge +14.4% · 1 book
Push824012

Noelvi Marte

CIN · BAL @ CIN

001

—

Hits

➖
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.62 · Actual — · Edge +2.2% · 1 book
Push824499

Oswald Peraza

LAA · BOS @ LAA

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.70 · Actual — · Edge +4.7% · 1 book
Push824012

Patrick Bailey

CLE · CWS @ CLE

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Low
Proj 0.61 · Actual — · Edge +1.9% · 1 book
Push824415

Pavin Smith

AZ · MIL @ AZ

001

—

Hits

➖
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.46 · Actual — · Edge -1.4% · 1 book
Push825063

Tristan Gray

MIN · MIN @ NYY

001

—

Hits

➖
Under 0.5· Low
Proj 0.58 · Actual — · Edge -3.0% · 1 book
Push823526

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · BAL @ CIN

001

—

Hits

➖
Over 0.5· Medium
Proj 0.86 · Actual — · Edge +3.9% · 1 book
Push824499

Full per-game audit table

PIT @ WSH

14–1024 dec58.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Zack Littell	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.13	3	-2.6%	Low	Win
Braxton Ashcraft	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	7.63	7	+24.6%	Low	Win
Konnor Griffin	Hits	Over 1.5	1.23	1	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Brandon Lowe	Hits	Under 1.5	0.98	1	+3.5%	Medium	Win
Bryan Reynolds	Hits	Under 1.5	1.01	2	+1.0%	Low	Loss
Ryan O'Hearn	Hits	Over 1.5	1.18	2	+3.8%	Medium	Win
Nick Gonzales	Hits	Over 1.5	1.22	2	+5.7%	High	Win
Jake Mangum	Hits	Over 1.5	1.21	0	+5.1%	High	Loss
Esmerlyn Valdez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.43	1	+13.7%	High	Win
James Wood	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	1	+1.8%	Low	Win
Dylan Crews	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	1	+4.8%	Medium	Win
Curtis Mead	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	1	-2.1%	Low	Win
Daylen Lile	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	2	+6.5%	High	Win
CJ Abrams	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+2.0%	Low	Loss
Keibert Ruiz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	—	+6.0%	High	Void
Tyler Callihan	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	1	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
Jacob Young	Hits	Over 0.5	0.63	—	-3.4%	Low	Void
Brandon Lowe	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.88	1	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Konnor Griffin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.89	1	+6.2%	High	Loss
Bryan Reynolds	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.65	2	+0.4%	Low	Win
Ryan O'Hearn	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.02	2	+10.7%	High	Win
James Wood	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.07	4	+13.5%	High	Win
Nick Gonzales	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	2	+7.1%	High	Win
Esmerlyn Valdez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.95	1	+29.3%	Low	Loss
Jake Mangum	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.40	0	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
Dylan Crews	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	1	+4.4%	Medium	Loss

MIN @ NYY

11–1627 dec40.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Zebby Matthews	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.23	5	-1.5%	Low	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits	Under 1.5	0.75	0	+9.7%	High	Win
Brooks Lee	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	-1.1%	Low	Loss
Trent Grisham	Hits	Over 0.5	1.16	0	+4.4%	Medium	Loss
Paul Goldschmidt	Hits	Under 0.5	0.83	0	+0.8%	Low	Win
Cody Bellinger	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	1	+11.1%	High	Loss
Jasson Domínguez	Hits	Under 0.5	0.75	2	+1.7%	Low	Loss
Kody Clemens	Hits	Under 0.5	0.85	2	-2.9%	Low	Loss
Josh Bell	Hits	Under 0.5	0.74	3	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Hits	Under 0.5	0.69	1	+2.3%	Low	Loss
Royce Lewis	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	1	-0.4%	Low	Win
Trevor Larnach	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	2	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Luke Keaschall	Hits	Under 0.5	0.68	1	-1.7%	Low	Loss
Ryan Kreidler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	0	+1.3%	Low	Loss
Ryan McMahon	Hits	Under 0.5	0.61	0	-1.0%	Low	Win
Tristan Gray	Hits	Under 0.5	0.58	—	-3.0%	Low	Void
Alex Jackson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	+13.9%	High	Win
Ben Rice	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.60	0	-3.0%	Low	Win
Trent Grisham	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.98	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Kody Clemens	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.94	5	+10.3%	High	Win
Cody Bellinger	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.93	2	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Paul Goldschmidt	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.62	0	+5.8%	High	Loss
Brooks Lee	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.71	0	+8.4%	High	Loss
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.20	1	-3.5%	Low	Loss
Jasson Domínguez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	6	+0.7%	Low	Win
Josh Bell	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.54	10	+6.3%	High	Win
Royce Lewis	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.48	1	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Trevor Larnach	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.58	5	+11.5%	High	Win

DET @ TEX

8–1422 dec36.4%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Jack Flaherty	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.56	5	-1.7%	Low	Loss
Kevin McGonigle	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	0	+6.0%	High	Loss
Dillon Dingler	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+2.0%	Low	Loss
Brandon Nimmo	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+6.7%	High	Loss
Riley Greene	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	2	+2.7%	Medium	Win
Josh Jung	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	1	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Kerry Carpenter	Hits	Under 0.5	0.73	1	-2.2%	Low	Loss
Jake Burger	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	—	-2.3%	Low	Void
Ezequiel Duran	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	0	+9.7%	High	Loss
Joc Pederson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	+1.9%	Low	Win
Colt Keith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.67	1	-3.4%	Low	Loss
Zach McKinstry	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	1	+5.3%	High	Win
Spencer Torkelson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.76	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Alejandro Osuna	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+10.4%	High	Loss
Nicky Lopez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	0	+16.7%	High	Loss
Evan Carter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.67	1	+1.2%	Low	Win
Hao-Yu Lee	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	—	+13.4%	High	Void
James Outman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Kerry Carpenter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	1	+6.6%	High	Loss
Dillon Dingler	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.00	0	+13.3%	High	Loss
Brandon Nimmo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.86	0	+14.2%	High	Loss
Riley Greene	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.81	5	+13.9%	High	Win
Kevin McGonigle	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.55	0	+9.3%	High	Loss
Josh Jung	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	2	+13.4%	High	Win

TOR @ SEA

9–1221 dec42.9%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Logan Gilbert	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	7.42	7	+35.1%	Low	Win
Randy Arozarena	Hits	Under 0.5	0.86	3	+2.0%	Low	Loss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits	Under 0.5	0.89	0	+0.8%	Low	Win
Josh Naylor	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	1	-1.1%	Low	Win
Ernie Clement	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Dominic Canzone	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	2	+5.6%	High	Loss
J.P. Crawford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	0	-0.6%	Low	Loss
Nathan Lukes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+1.1%	Low	Loss
Cal Raleigh	Hits	Under 0.5	0.55	1	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+11.9%	High	Loss
Victor Robles	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	1	-0.1%	Low	Loss
Cole Young	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	1	+11.6%	High	Win
Daulton Varsho	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+8.0%	High	Loss
Luke Raley	Hits	Under 0.5	0.49	0	+0.9%	Low	Win
Colt Emerson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.63	2	+0.7%	Low	Win
Myles Straw	Hits	Under 0.5	0.45	—	+0.2%	Low	Void
Brandon Valenzuela	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	0	+4.0%	Medium	Loss
Randy Arozarena	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.40	7	+2.6%	Medium	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.09	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Josh Naylor	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	1	+2.4%	Low	Loss
Dominic Canzone	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.30	5	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Ernie Clement	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.48	0	+7.7%	High	Loss

BAL @ CIN

14–1024 dec58.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Brandon Young	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.72	5	-1.4%	Low	Loss
Elly De La Cruz	Hits	Under 1.5	0.99	2	-0.4%	Low	Loss
Gunnar Henderson	Hits	Under 1.5	0.97	1	-2.1%	Low	Win
Sal Stewart	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	1	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Pete Alonso	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	3	-1.9%	Low	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Samuel Basallo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	1	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Adley Rutschman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.77	2	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Blaze Alexander	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	1	-1.7%	Low	Win
JJ Bleday	Hits	Under 0.5	0.67	1	+2.4%	Low	Loss
Taylor Ward	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	+0.9%	Low	Win
Noelvi Marte	Hits	Under 0.5	0.62	—	+2.2%	Low	Void
Edwin Arroyo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	—	-1.7%	Low	Void
Tyler Stephenson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	—	+3.9%	Medium	Void
Dylan Beavers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	—	-1.1%	Low	Void
TJ Friedl	Hits	Under 0.5	0.49	1	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Jackson Holliday	Hits	Under 0.5	0.47	0	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Colton Cowser	Hits	Over 0.5	0.58	1	-1.4%	Low	Win
Elly De La Cruz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.61	2	-1.1%	Low	Win
Gunnar Henderson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.55	1	+0.0%	Low	Loss
JJ Bleday	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.11	1	-2.1%	Low	Win
Pete Alonso	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.52	4	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Sal Stewart	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.09	2	+15.6%	High	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.12	0	-2.5%	Low	Loss
Samuel Basallo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	4	+8.2%	High	Win
Adley Rutschman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.23	4	+1.7%	Low	Win
Taylor Ward	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	1	+3.0%	Medium	Loss
Blaze Alexander	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.40	1	+6.5%	High	Loss

CWS @ CLE

10–1424 dec41.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Sean Burke	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	6.55	11	+14.7%	High	Win
Parker Messick	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	7.21	3	+14.6%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	1.20	1	+6.5%	High	Win
Miguel Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	1.10	0	+7.1%	High	Loss
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	0	-0.7%	Low	Win
Chase Meidroth	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	+4.0%	Medium	Loss
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	2	-1.5%	Low	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	2	-1.7%	Low	Win
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	1	+3.0%	Medium	Win
Randal Grichuk	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	1	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Kahlil Watson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	0	+10.9%	High	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	1	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Cooper Ingle	Hits	Under 0.5	0.20	0	+17.5%	High	Win
Sam Antonacci	Hits	Over 0.5	1.16	0	+16.0%	High	Loss
Kyle Manzardo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	1	-1.4%	Low	Loss
Gabriel Arias	Hits	Over 0.5	0.64	0	-1.6%	Low	Loss
Drew Romo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.26	1	+10.9%	High	Loss
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	—	+1.9%	Low	Void
Junior Perez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.50	0	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.36	0	+19.3%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	1	+9.2%	High	Loss
Colson Montgomery	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.52	6	+6.5%	High	Win
Travis Bazzana	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.18	0	+0.5%	Low	Loss
Brayan Rocchio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	2	+5.9%	High	Win
Chase Meidroth	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.42	0	+8.5%	High	Loss

TB @ HOU

17–219 dec89.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Drew Rasmussen	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	5.76	2	+1.0%	Low	Win
Hunter Brown	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	5.63	3	+2.8%	Medium	Win
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.23	—	+7.6%	High	Void
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 0.5	1.30	2	+12.3%	High	Win
Yordan Alvarez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	3	+2.0%	Low	Win
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Over 0.5	1.22	1	+13.9%	High	Win
Jose Altuve	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	2	-0.6%	Low	Win
Christian Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	+1.3%	Low	Win
Yainer Diaz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	1	+4.4%	Medium	Win
Isaac Paredes	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	1	+10.5%	High	Win
Cam Smith	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	0	+3.9%	Medium	Loss
Cedric Mullins	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	+7.7%	High	Win
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	+1.7%	Low	Win
Richie Palacios	Hits	Over 0.5	0.64	2	+1.6%	Low	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	1	+9.5%	High	Win
Taylor Trammell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.59	1	+0.5%	Low	Win
Nick Allen	Hits	Over 0.5	0.54	1	+1.6%	Low	Win
Hunter Feduccia	Hits	Over 0.5	0.58	0	+7.7%	High	Loss
Yordan Alvarez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.98	9	+11.1%	High	Win
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	3.31	5	+35.3%	Low	Win
Chandler Simpson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.53	—	+8.8%	High	Void

NYM @ ATL

12–1325 dec48.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Chris Sale	Strikeouts	Over 7.5	7.49	3	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Sean Manaea	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	3.98	4	+9.2%	High	Win
Drake Baldwin	Hits	Under 1.5	0.64	0	+13.3%	High	Win
Ozzie Albies	Hits	Under 1.5	0.87	1	+2.8%	Medium	Win
Bo Bichette	Hits	Over 1.5	1.01	1	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits	Under 0.5	0.99	3	-2.0%	Low	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	1	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Juan Soto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.93	1	-0.3%	Low	Win
Francisco Lindor	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	2	-0.1%	Low	Win
Austin Riley	Hits	Under 0.5	0.67	1	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Francisco Alvarez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Carson Benge	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	+8.9%	High	Win
Mark Vientos	Hits	Under 0.5	0.54	2	+3.7%	Medium	Loss
Eli White	Hits	Under 0.5	0.46	2	+6.6%	High	Loss
A.J. Ewing	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+9.5%	High	Loss
Eric Wagaman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.37	1	+3.9%	Medium	Loss
Joey Bart	Hits	Over 0.5	0.79	1	+7.6%	High	Win
Jorge Mateo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.42	1	-0.0%	Low	Loss
Brett Baty	Hits	Over 0.5	0.53	1	-0.5%	Low	Win
Ozzie Albies	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	2	+2.8%	Medium	Win
Drake Baldwin	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.02	0	+2.4%	Low	Win
Bo Bichette	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.51	1	+3.0%	Medium	Loss
Michael Harris II	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	6	+5.7%	High	Win
Matt Olson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.04	1	+15.4%	High	Loss
Juan Soto	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.71	1	+9.9%	High	Loss

STL @ CHC

12–1123 dec52.2%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Kyle Leahy	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.63	6	+9.5%	High	Win
Shota Imanaga	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.45	8	+5.3%	High	Loss
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	+1.5%	Low	Win
Alex Bregman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.83	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Nico Hoerner	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	1	+2.4%	Low	Win
Alec Burleson	Hits	Under 0.5	0.84	2	-1.7%	Low	Loss
Michael Busch	Hits	Under 0.5	0.78	0	+0.3%	Low	Win
JJ Wetherholt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	3	+2.1%	Low	Win
Jordan Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	1	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Seiya Suzuki	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+7.3%	High	Loss
Lars Nootbaar	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	0	+13.9%	High	Loss
Ian Happ	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	1	-0.1%	Low	Win
Dansby Swanson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	+13.8%	High	Loss
Blaze Jordan	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	—	+1.1%	Low	Void
Miguel Amaya	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	0	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Michael Conforto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	2	+1.3%	Low	Win
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.94	1	+11.3%	High	Loss
Michael Busch	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	0	+7.7%	High	Loss
Alex Bregman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.28	0	+0.8%	Low	Loss
Jordan Walker	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	2	+9.9%	High	Win
Alec Burleson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.42	2	+5.4%	High	Win
Seiya Suzuki	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.01	0	+18.2%	High	Loss
JJ Wetherholt	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.24	7	+3.1%	Medium	Win
Nico Hoerner	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.48	1	+9.0%	High	Loss

SF @ COL

1–01 dec100.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Robbie Ray	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	5.10	4	+4.2%	Medium	Win

PHI @ KC

8–2028 dec28.6%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Michael Wacha	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.97	7	+6.4%	High	Win
Trea Turner	Hits	Over 1.5	1.29	1	-0.5%	Low	Loss
Bobby Witt Jr.	Hits	Under 1.5	1.12	0	-0.8%	Low	Win
Brandon Marsh	Hits	Over 1.5	1.33	0	+7.1%	High	Loss
Alec Bohm	Hits	Under 1.5	0.71	2	+11.3%	High	Loss
Bryce Harper	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	-0.6%	Low	Win
Bryson Stott	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	1	+3.0%	Medium	Win
J.T. Realmuto	Hits	Under 0.5	0.69	1	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Kyle Schwarber	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	3	-1.1%	Low	Loss
Jac Caglianone	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Justin Crawford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+4.6%	Medium	Win
Carter Jensen	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Nick Loftin	Hits	Under 0.5	0.62	1	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Starling Marte	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	1	-1.3%	Low	Win
Lane Thomas	Hits	Under 0.5	0.55	1	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	Hits	Under 0.5	0.55	2	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Isaac Collins	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	0	+4.0%	Medium	Loss
Michael Massey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	0	+5.5%	High	Loss
Kameron Misner	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	0	+14.2%	High	Loss
Bobby Witt Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.97	0	+5.1%	High	Loss
Trea Turner	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.16	1	+12.0%	High	Loss
Kyle Schwarber	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	3	-0.4%	Low	Win
Brandon Marsh	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.57	0	+20.3%	Low	Loss
Bryce Harper	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.10	1	+11.8%	High	Loss
Alec Bohm	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.21	6	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Bryson Stott	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.48	1	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
J.T. Realmuto	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.14	4	-3.3%	Low	Win
Jac Caglianone	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.96	0	+18.0%	High	Loss

BOS @ LAA

11–1021 dec52.4%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Sonny Gray	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	6.65	7	+1.1%	Low	Win
Nolan Schanuel	Hits	Under 1.5	1.04	0	-2.5%	Low	Win
Willson Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	1.06	1	+2.6%	Medium	Win
Ceddanne Rafaela	Hits	Over 0.5	1.19	1	+7.9%	High	Win
Wilyer Abreu	Hits	Under 0.5	0.86	1	-2.2%	Low	Loss
Caleb Durbin	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+0.1%	Low	Loss
Zach Neto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	0	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Nate Eaton	Hits	Under 0.5	0.38	—	+14.4%	High	Void
Denzer Guzman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	1	+8.3%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	0	-2.4%	Low	Loss
Jorge Soler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	0	-1.0%	Low	Loss
Anthony Seigler	Hits	Over 0.5	1.10	1	+16.8%	High	Win
Wade Meckler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	1	+8.7%	High	Win
Josh Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	1	+10.6%	High	Win
Oswald Peraza	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	—	+4.7%	Medium	Void
Andruw Monasterio	Hits	Under 0.5	0.51	1	-3.3%	Low	Loss
Tyler Heineman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.52	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Willson Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.95	4	+9.3%	High	Win
Ceddanne Rafaela	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.68	2	+8.4%	High	Win
Wilyer Abreu	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.58	2	+7.2%	High	Win
Nolan Schanuel	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.47	0	+5.1%	High	Loss
Zach Neto	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.58	0	+8.5%	High	Loss
Caleb Durbin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	0	+13.6%	High	Loss

MIL @ AZ

14–1529 dec48.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Jackson Chourio	Hits	Over 1.5	1.17	1	-1.8%	Low	Loss
Christian Yelich	Hits	Under 1.5	0.68	1	+10.0%	High	Win
William Contreras	Hits	Over 1.5	1.07	2	-2.5%	Low	Win
Sal Frelick	Hits	Under 1.5	0.94	0	+2.8%	Medium	Win
Brice Turang	Hits	Under 1.5	1.06	3	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Ketel Marte	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	0	+5.5%	High	Loss
Jake Bauers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	-0.4%	Low	Loss
Gabriel Moreno	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	1	+2.6%	Medium	Win
Corbin Carroll	Hits	Under 0.5	0.85	0	-2.0%	Low	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Garrett Mitchell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	2	+3.4%	Medium	Win
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	1	+0.5%	Low	Win
Nolan Arenado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+5.7%	High	Loss
Cooper Pratt	Hits	Under 0.5	0.38	1	+10.6%	High	Loss
Max Kepler	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	0	+8.8%	High	Win
David Hamilton	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	—	+0.0%	Low	Void
Tommy Troy	Hits	Over 0.5	0.67	0	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Pavin Smith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.46	—	-1.4%	Low	Void
Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.05	4	+5.6%	High	Win
Christian Yelich	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.99	4	+5.8%	High	Loss
Brice Turang	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.77	5	+5.0%	High	Win
Corbin Carroll	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.45	0	+0.5%	Low	Loss
Ketel Marte	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.53	0	+23.3%	Low	Loss
William Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	2	+5.1%	High	Win
Sal Frelick	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.28	0	-2.9%	Low	Win
Jake Bauers	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.80	0	+11.8%	High	Loss
Gabriel Moreno	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.28	1	+1.3%	Low	Loss
Garrett Mitchell	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.92	3	+17.0%	High	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	0	+4.7%	Medium	Loss
Brandon Woodruff	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	5.61	6	+25.5%	Low	Win
Merrill Kelly	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.16	6	+12.1%	High	Loss

MIA @ ATH

0–22 dec0.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Sandy Alcantara	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.48	8	+7.4%	High	Loss
Aaron Civale	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.19	6	+9.1%	High	Loss

SD @ LAD

1–12 dec50.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	5.82	10	+2.5%	Medium	Loss
Griffin Canning	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	3.17	4	+22.1%	Low	Win

How rows grade

Pitcher strikeouts graded against stats.pitching.strikeOuts. Batter hits against stats.batting.hits, total bases against stats.batting.totalBases (falls back to singles + 2·doubles + 3·triples + 4·HR if the API field is missing). Over wins if actual > line; Under wins if actual < line; push if equal.

What's excluded

Insufficient-data leans are never counted. Missing projection / line / lean rows are skipped. When a player didn't appear in the final box score (called up after probable, late scratch, etc.) the row is marked actual unavailable and excluded from the decisive denominator. Home-run markets live on the separate Power Board.

MLB model lessons

Anomaly threshold tightened
Settled MLB rows showed the 20–25pp |edge| bucket behaved like an anomaly territory. The MLB R5 cap now triggers at 20pp instead of 25pp so borderline-anomaly leans get the same risk-aware framing as the NBA cap.
Sample is one slate; cap tightening only adds caution.
Market behavior · descriptive only
Hits and total-base markets behaved similarly across confidence tiers; pitcher strikeouts had a smaller sample. No projection math changes yet — we wait for multiple settled slates before tuning per-market weights.
Single-slate signal — descriptive, not predictive.

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