Signal
Hits strongest, Total bases weakest
MLB Hits hit at 54.1% on 20294 picks; Total bases hit at 43.0% on 8670. Markets to keep auditing in the next slates.
Model-performance ledger
Every published MLB projection is graded here against official box scores — a read on model quality. This is not the official paper-card record, and the two are never combined. See the Results trust center for the official product-card record.
MLB model audit · graded against final box scores
MLB player-prop leans: how the model did
Every settled slate · 2026-05-16 → 2026-10-28
50.3%hit rate · 25,107–24,804 on 49,911 decided leans over 132 slates
Latest slate only · 2026-10-2850.0% hit rate · 20–20 on 40 decided leans
Every model lean on a strikeout, hit, total-base or hits + runs + RBIs line is logged when the board is generated and graded against the verified MLB box score after the game is final. 1 of 1 games settled for 2026-10-28. Hit rate excludes pushes and No Plays. Educational analytics — not betting advice.
Final games settled
1
of 1 on slate
Wins · Losses
20 · 20
no pushes
Pending games
0
all final
Stat unavailable
0
player didn't appear
By market
- Strikeouts0–1· 1 dec0.0%
- Hits11–7· 18 dec61.1%
- Total Bases1–2· 3 dec33.3%
- Hits + Runs + RBIs8–10· 18 dec44.4%
By confidence
- High10–16· 26 dec38.5%
- Medium3–0· 3 dec100.0%
- Low7–4· 11 dec63.6%
By game
- MIL @ TB20–20· 40 dec50.0%
MLB model audit notes
What the MLB settled data has been saying
Through 2026-10-28. 49911 decisive picks counted.
Signal
Lifetime MLB settled hit rate
50.3% on 49911 decisive picks. Pushes excluded; pending and insufficient-data rows never counted. The audit is still on an early sample — every new settled slate widens the denominator.
Over / Under split
- Over19515–19179 · 50.4%on 38694
- Under5592–5625 · 49.9%on 11217
Market split
- H+R+RBI9207–9273 · 49.8%on 18480
- Hits10987–9307 · 54.1%on 20294
- Strikeouts1188–1279 · 48.2%on 2467
- Total bases3725–4945 · 43.0%on 8670
Edge band
- 0–5pp13070–12430 · 51.3%on 25500
- 5–10pp6104–5849 · 51.1%on 11953
- 10–15pp3532–3798 · 48.2%on 7330
- 15–25pp2156–2488 · 46.4%on 4644
- 25pp+245–239 · 50.6%on 484
Top hits
- Chandler SimpsonHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5actual 3 · edge 21.1% · Low
- Brice TurangHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5actual 3 · edge 20.2% · Low
- Chandler SimpsonHits · Over 0.5actual 2 · edge 14.8% · High
- Brice TurangHits · Over 0.5actual 2 · edge 10.7% · High
- Liam HicksHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 0.5actual 2 · edge 9.0% · High
- Liam HicksHits · Over 0.5actual 1 · edge 7.9% · High
- Garrett MitchellHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 0.5actual 1 · edge 6.7% · High
- Cooper PrattHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5actual 5 · edge 6.7% · High
Biggest misses
- Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts · Over 5.5proj 6.71 · actual 2 · High
- Yandy DiazHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5proj 2.06 · actual 0 · High
- Jake BauersHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5proj 1.96 · actual 0 · High
- Jonny DelucaHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5proj 1.89 · actual 0 · High
- Richie PalaciosHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 0.5proj 1.84 · actual 0 · Low
- Victor Mesa Jr.Hits + Runs + RBIs · Over 0.5proj 1.8 · actual 0 · High
- Jonathan ArandaHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 0.5proj 1.65 · actual 0 · High
- Jackson ChourioHits + Runs + RBIs · Over 1.5proj 2.62 · actual 1 · High
Player audit · projection vs actual
William Contreras
MIL · MIL @ TB30100%
William Contreras
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· LowProj 0.97 · Actual 1 · Edge -2.2% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 1.5· HighProj 2.12 · Actual 3 · Edge +5.6% · 1 book
Total Bases
- ✅Over 1.5· MediumProj 1.50 · Actual 2 · Edge +5.0% · 1 book
Jackson ChourioMIL · MIL @ TB1233%
Jackson Chourio
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· LowProj 1.15 · Actual 1 · Edge +1.9% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 2.62 · Actual 1 · Edge +12.8% · 1 book
Total Bases
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.85 · Actual 1 · Edge +10.6% · 1 book
Yandy Diaz
TB · MIL @ TB1233%
Yandy Diaz
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Under 0.5· LowProj 0.93 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.6% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 2.06 · Actual 0 · Edge +7.3% · 1 book
Total Bases
- ❌Over 1.5· LowProj 1.29 · Actual 0 · Edge +1.5% · 1 book
Brice TurangMIL · MIL @ TB20100%
Brice Turang
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.17 · Actual 2 · Edge +10.7% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 1.5· LowProj 2.54 · Actual 3 · Edge +20.2% · 1 book
Chandler SimpsonTB · MIL @ TB20100%
Chandler Simpson
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.24 · Actual 2 · Edge +14.8% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 1.5· LowProj 2.04 · Actual 3 · Edge +21.1% · 1 book
Cooper PrattMIL · MIL @ TB20100%
Cooper Pratt
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.94 · Actual 2 · Edge +4.2% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 1.5· HighProj 1.71 · Actual 5 · Edge +6.7% · 1 book
David HamiltonMIL · MIL @ TB20100%
David Hamilton
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· MediumProj 0.71 · Actual 1 · Edge +4.0% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.24 · Actual 2 · Edge +6.4% · 1 book
Garrett MitchellMIL · MIL @ TB20100%
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· LowProj 0.72 · Actual 1 · Edge +2.4% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.50 · Actual 1 · Edge +6.7% · 1 book
Liam HicksTB · MIL @ TB20100%
Liam Hicks
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 0.88 · Actual 1 · Edge +7.9% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 1.70 · Actual 2 · Edge +9.0% · 1 book
Sal FrelickMIL · MIL @ TB20100%
Sal Frelick
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Under 0.5· HighProj 0.56 · Actual 0 · Edge +5.5% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ✅Under 1.5· LowProj 1.06 · Actual 0 · Edge +0.6% · 1 book
Junior CamineroTB · MIL @ TB1150%
Junior Caminero
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ✅Over 0.5· HighProj 0.97 · Actual 1 · Edge +5.8% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 2.15 · Actual 1 · Edge +14.1% · 1 book
Christian YelichMIL · MIL @ TB020%
Christian Yelich
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· LowProj 0.74 · Actual 0 · Edge -2.9% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.79 · Actual 1 · Edge +9.2% · 1 book
Jake BauersMIL · MIL @ TB020%
Jake Bauers
MIL · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.84 · Actual 0 · Edge +6.2% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.96 · Actual 0 · Edge +13.4% · 1 book
Jonathan ArandaTB · MIL @ TB020%
Jonathan Aranda
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.86 · Actual 0 · Edge +6.7% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 1.65 · Actual 0 · Edge +8.3% · 1 book
Jonny DelucaTB · MIL @ TB020%
Jonny Deluca
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.95 · Actual 0 · Edge +6.2% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 1.5· HighProj 1.89 · Actual 0 · Edge +14.6% · 1 book
Richie PalaciosTB · MIL @ TB020%
Richie Palacios
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.74 · Actual 0 · Edge +10.6% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 0.5· LowProj 1.84 · Actual 0 · Edge +22.6% · 1 book
Taylor WallsTB · MIL @ TB020%
Taylor Walls
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.70 · Actual 0 · Edge +12.3% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 0.5· LowProj 1.60 · Actual 0 · Edge +22.9% · 1 book
Victor Mesa Jr.TB · MIL @ TB020%
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · MIL @ TBHits
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 0.87 · Actual 0 · Edge +9.9% · 1 book
Hits + Runs + RBIs
- ❌Over 0.5· HighProj 1.80 · Actual 0 · Edge +14.3% · 1 book
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL · MIL @ TB010%
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL · MIL @ TBStrikeouts
- ❌Over 5.5· HighProj 6.71 · Actual 2 · Edge +19.2% · 1 book
Full per-game audit table
MIL @ TB20–2040 dec50.0%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 6.71 | 2 | +19.2% | High | Loss |
| Yandy Diaz | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.93 | 0 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 1 | +1.9% | Low | Win |
| William Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 1 | -2.2% | Low | Win |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 2 | +4.2% | Medium | Win |
| Brice Turang | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 2 | +10.7% | High | Win |
| Junior Caminero | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 1 | +5.8% | High | Win |
| Sal Frelick | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.56 | 0 | +5.5% | High | Win |
| Jonny Deluca | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +6.2% | High | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | -2.9% | Low | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 2 | +14.8% | High | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | +6.2% | High | Loss |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 0 | +6.7% | High | Loss |
| Liam Hicks | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 1 | +7.9% | High | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 1 | +2.4% | Low | Win |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +9.9% | High | Loss |
| David Hamilton | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.71 | 1 | +4.0% | Medium | Win |
| Richie Palacios | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| Taylor Walls | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.70 | 0 | +12.3% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1 | +12.8% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.12 | 3 | +5.6% | High | Win |
| Yandy Diaz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.06 | 0 | +7.3% | High | Loss |
| Brice Turang | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 3 | +20.2% | Low | Win |
| Junior Caminero | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.15 | 1 | +14.1% | High | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 5 | +6.7% | High | Win |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.79 | 1 | +9.2% | High | Loss |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.06 | 0 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.96 | 0 | +13.4% | High | Loss |
| Jonny Deluca | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.89 | 0 | +14.6% | High | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | 3 | +21.1% | Low | Win |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.65 | 0 | +8.3% | High | Loss |
| Liam Hicks | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.70 | 2 | +9.0% | High | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.50 | 1 | +6.7% | High | Win |
| David Hamilton | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 2 | +6.4% | High | Win |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.80 | 0 | +14.3% | High | Loss |
| Richie Palacios | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.84 | 0 | +22.6% | Low | Loss |
| Taylor Walls | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.60 | 0 | +22.9% | Low | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 1 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 2 | +5.0% | Medium | Win |
| Yandy Diaz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.29 | 0 | +1.5% | Low | Loss |
How rows grade
Pitcher strikeouts graded against stats.pitching.strikeOuts. Batter hits against stats.batting.hits, total bases against stats.batting.totalBases (falls back to singles + 2·doubles + 3·triples + 4·HR if the API field is missing). Over wins if actual > line; Under wins if actual < line; push if equal.What's excluded
Insufficient-data leans are never counted. Missing projection / line / lean rows are skipped. When a player didn't appear in the final box score (called up after probable, late scratch, etc.) the row is marked actual unavailable and excluded from the decisive denominator. Home-run probabilities live on Homer Nukes.MLB model lessons
- Anomaly threshold tightened
Settled MLB rows showed the 20–25pp |edge| bucket behaved like an anomaly territory. The MLB R5 cap now triggers at 20pp instead of 25pp so borderline-anomaly leans get the same risk-aware framing as the NBA cap.
Sample is one slate; cap tightening only adds caution.
- Market behavior · descriptive only
Hits and total-base markets behaved similarly across confidence tiers; pitcher strikeouts had a smaller sample. No projection math changes yet — we wait for multiple settled slates before tuning per-market weights.
Single-slate signal — descriptive, not predictive.