{"schema":"gtp.level-a.served-model@1","public":true,"asOf":"2026-10-30T16:39:28.412Z","productDay":"2026-10-30","modelSha256":"47d1c1b245609e015f6adf808dec49d2ba06e8ae2daf1019fb1a60c36f643373","model":{"asOf":"2026-10-30T16:39:28.412Z","version":"level-a-suggestions@1","now":"2026-10-30T16:39:28.412Z","productDay":"2026-10-30","label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"TOR (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909281"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.5796,"away":0.4204,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: ORL 42% · TOR 58%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909282","eventLabel":"IND @ MIA","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIA (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909282"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.7481,"away":0.2519,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: IND 25% · MIA 75%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909283","eventLabel":"HOU @ DAL","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"HOU (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909283"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3697,"away":0.6303,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: HOU 63% · DAL 37%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909285","eventLabel":"LAL @ GS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"LAL (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909285"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.4235,"away":0.5765,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAL 58% · GS 42%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909286","eventLabel":"DEN @ PHX","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DEN (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909286"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.466,"away":0.534,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DEN 53% · PHX 47%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876421","eventLabel":"Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"Paris Saint-Germain to win"},"probability":0.811852,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876421"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.059747,"draw":0.128401,"away":0.811852,"outcomeLabel":"away win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876416","eventLabel":"Nice v Stade Rennais","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"Nice to win"},"probability":0.469389,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876416"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.469389,"draw":0.256678,"away":0.273934,"outcomeLabel":"home win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876420","eventLabel":"Lille v Lens","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T20:05:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"Lille to win"},"probability":0.406124,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876420"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.406124,"draw":0.27067,"away":0.323206,"outcomeLabel":"home win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."}],"untiered":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"TOR (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909281"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.5796,"away":0.4204,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: ORL 42% · TOR 58%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909282","eventLabel":"IND @ MIA","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIA (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909282"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.7481,"away":0.2519,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: IND 25% · MIA 75%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909283","eventLabel":"HOU @ DAL","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"HOU (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909283"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3697,"away":0.6303,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: HOU 63% · DAL 37%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909285","eventLabel":"LAL @ GS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"LAL (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909285"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.4235,"away":0.5765,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAL 58% · GS 42%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909286","eventLabel":"DEN @ PHX","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DEN (official side)"},"probability":null,"tierable":false,"probabilityNote":"Not tiered in the cross-sport cards. Its Elo-derived game-winner estimate is published, so this side can appear in the NBA game winners cards.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909286"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.466,"away":0.534,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DEN 53% · PHX 47%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."}],"refused":[{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:chelsea-v-manchester-united:20261031t1230","eventLabel":"Chelsea v Manchester United","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:brighton-hove-albion-v-manchester-city:20261031t1500","eventLabel":"Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:bournemouth-v-leeds-united:20261031t1500","eventLabel":"Bournemouth v Leeds United","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:coventry-city-v-sunderland:20261031t1500","eventLabel":"Coventry City v Sunderland","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:hull-city-v-ipswich-town:20261031t1500","eventLabel":"Hull City v Ipswich Town","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:brentford-v-nottingham-forest:20261031t1500","eventLabel":"Brentford v Nottingham Forest","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:crystal-palace-v-tottenham-hotspur:20261031t1730","eventLabel":"Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:aston-villa-v-fulham:20261031t2000","eventLabel":"Aston Villa v Fulham","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:arsenal-v-liverpool:20261101t1630","eventLabel":"Liverpool v Arsenal","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"epl","eventId":"soccer:epl:everton-v-newcastle-united:20261102t2000","eventLabel":"Newcastle United v Everton","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876413","eventLabel":"Troyes v Le Mans","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876414","eventLabel":"Strasbourg v AJ Auxerre","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876418","eventLabel":"Lyon v Angers","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876415","eventLabel":"Paris FC v AS Monaco","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876417","eventLabel":"Marseille v Toulouse","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876419","eventLabel":"Lorient v Brest","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876405","eventLabel":"Toulouse v Strasbourg","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876411","eventLabel":"AJ Auxerre v Paris FC","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]},{"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876407","eventLabel":"Paris Saint-Germain v Troyes","market":"1x2","reasons":["OTHER_PRODUCT_DAY"],"text":["The event is not on this product day (the ET date of its start)."]}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"parlayLab":[{"tier":"low","tierLabel":"Low Risk","card":{"policy":"level-a-mixed@1/parlay-lab","tier":"low","tierLabel":"Low Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876421","eventLabel":"Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"Paris Saint-Germain to win"},"probability":0.811852,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876421"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.059747,"draw":0.128401,"away":0.811852,"outcomeLabel":"away win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"jointProbability":0.607671222,"jointShown":"60.8%","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different game, so no two legs share an outcome. Across sports the games are unrelated; within one sport on the same night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring), and that is not modelled.","whySelected":"Each leg is its sport's official forecast pick, with that sport's own published probability or estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Low Risk band (2 legs from Ligue 1, NBA).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},{"tier":"medium","tierLabel":"Medium Risk","card":{"policy":"level-a-mixed@1/parlay-lab","tier":"medium","tierLabel":"Medium Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876421","eventLabel":"Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"Paris Saint-Germain to win"},"probability":0.811852,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876421"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.059747,"draw":0.128401,"away":0.811852,"outcomeLabel":"away win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":0.6103000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"61%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"9e7158e3c8a61337cfbe14677619c10a698aacb50e670e4e419d84b964d85d3c"}}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"jointProbability":0.49547327560000004,"jointShown":"49.5%","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different game, so no two legs share an outcome. Across sports the games are unrelated; within one sport on the same night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring), and that is not modelled.","whySelected":"Each leg is its sport's official forecast pick, with that sport's own published probability or estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Medium Risk band (2 legs from Ligue 1, NBA).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},{"tier":"high","tierLabel":"High Risk","card":{"policy":"level-a-mixed@1/parlay-lab","tier":"high","tierLabel":"High Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876421","eventLabel":"Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"Paris Saint-Germain to win"},"probability":0.811852,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876421"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.059747,"draw":0.128401,"away":0.811852,"outcomeLabel":"away win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":0.6103000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"61%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"9e7158e3c8a61337cfbe14677619c10a698aacb50e670e4e419d84b964d85d3c"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":0.6695,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"67%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"40b9e5fe558ec00a8ecff45b5912fd0999edcae9473683f9efd9683d46690c9e"}}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"jointProbability":0.24829193947362874,"jointShown":"24.8%","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different game, so no two legs share an outcome. Across sports the games are unrelated; within one sport on the same night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring), and that is not modelled.","whySelected":"Each leg is its sport's official forecast pick, with that sport's own published probability or estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the High Risk band (4 legs from Ligue 1, NBA).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},{"tier":"longshot","tierLabel":"Longshot","card":{"policy":"level-a-mixed@1/parlay-lab","tier":"longshot","tierLabel":"Longshot","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876416","eventLabel":"Nice v Stade Rennais","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"Nice to win"},"probability":0.469389,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876416"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.469389,"draw":0.256678,"away":0.273934,"outcomeLabel":"home win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876420","eventLabel":"Lille v Lens","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T20:05:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"Lille to win"},"probability":0.406124,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876420"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.406124,"draw":0.27067,"away":0.323206,"outcomeLabel":"home win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"jointProbability":0.14268665846964598,"jointShown":"14.27%","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different game, so no two legs share an outcome. Across sports the games are unrelated; within one sport on the same night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring), and that is not modelled.","whySelected":"Each leg is its sport's official forecast pick, with that sport's own published probability or estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Longshot band (3 legs from Ligue 1, NBA).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null}],"bankBuilder":{"card":{"policy":"level-a-mixed@1/bank-builder","tier":"low","tierLabel":"Low Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876421","eventLabel":"Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"Paris Saint-Germain to win"},"probability":0.811852,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876421"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.059747,"draw":0.128401,"away":0.811852,"outcomeLabel":"away win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"jointProbability":0.607671222,"jointShown":"60.8%","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different game, so no two legs share an outcome. Across sports the games are unrelated; within one sport on the same night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring), and that is not modelled.","whySelected":"Each leg is its sport's official forecast pick, with that sport's own published probability or estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Low Risk band (2 legs from Ligue 1, NBA).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},"moonshot":{"card":{"policy":"level-a-mixed@1/moonshot","tier":"longshot","tierLabel":"Longshot","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876416","eventLabel":"Nice v Stade Rennais","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"Nice to win"},"probability":0.469389,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876416"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.469389,"draw":0.256678,"away":0.273934,"outcomeLabel":"home win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"ligue-1","eventId":"soccer:ligue-1:401876420","eventLabel":"Lille v Lens","market":"1x2","startUtc":"2026-10-30T20:05:00.000Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"Lille to win"},"probability":0.406124,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":null,"forecast":{"owner":"soccer-league-forecasts (Ligue 1, model-only)","modelId":"epl-model-v1-split-poisson","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:58:04Z","ref":"app/public/data/soccer/ligue-1/forecasts/latest.json#soccer:ligue-1:401876420"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"1x2","home":0.406124,"draw":0.27067,"away":0.323206,"outcomeLabel":"home win"},"settlement":{"grader":"soccer-1x2-official-final","market":"1x2","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only."},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}}],"sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"jointProbability":0.14268665846964598,"jointShown":"14.27%","method":"Joint probability = product of each leg's official forecast probability, legs from different games only (treated as independent across games). Tier = the published risk band of the model-fair price (1 ÷ joint). No sportsbook price is used.","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different game, so no two legs share an outcome. Across sports the games are unrelated; within one sport on the same night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring), and that is not modelled.","whySelected":"Each leg is its sport's official forecast pick, with that sport's own published probability or estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Longshot band (3 legs from Ligue 1, NBA).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"label":"Model suggestion — paper only. No sportsbook price, no payout, not a bet.","disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},"mixed":{"public":true,"policy":"level-a-mixed@1","sports":["ligue-1","nba"],"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"nbaGameWinners":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1","public":true,"tiers":[{"tier":"low","tierLabel":"Low Risk","card":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1/parlay-lab","tier":"low","tierLabel":"Low Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":0.826,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"83%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"d7efb5dd8e27b40c2520e4b41533e2e3f0ab5931f19f2b4c36a69c3ea38e5ac8"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}}],"sports":["nba"],"jointProbability":0.618261,"jointShown":"61.8%","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different NBA game, so no two legs share a team, but same-night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring) and that is not modelled.","label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","whySelected":"Each leg is the official NBA side with its published Elo-derived game-winner estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Low Risk band (2 legs).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},{"tier":"medium","tierLabel":"Medium Risk","card":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1/parlay-lab","tier":"medium","tierLabel":"Medium Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":0.7297,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"73%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","payloadSha256":"32b4edce15ae9740d2aff383ba8f78715f2e20df8d32fc6459e288a541340847"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":0.6695,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"67%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"40b9e5fe558ec00a8ecff45b5912fd0999edcae9473683f9efd9683d46690c9e"}}],"sports":["nba"],"jointProbability":0.48853415,"jointShown":"48.9%","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different NBA game, so no two legs share a team, but same-night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring) and that is not modelled.","label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","whySelected":"Each leg is the official NBA side with its published Elo-derived game-winner estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Medium Risk band (2 legs).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},{"tier":"high","tierLabel":"High Risk","card":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1/parlay-lab","tier":"high","tierLabel":"High Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":0.7297,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"73%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","payloadSha256":"32b4edce15ae9740d2aff383ba8f78715f2e20df8d32fc6459e288a541340847"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":0.6103000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"61%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"9e7158e3c8a61337cfbe14677619c10a698aacb50e670e4e419d84b964d85d3c"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909282","eventLabel":"IND @ MIA","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIA (official side)"},"probability":0.7481,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909282"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.7481,"away":0.2519,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: IND 25% · MIA 75%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"e81d291481baa204c32a294eb24a9340044e4395e128e15e8f0f1f753b363174"}}],"sports":["nba"],"jointProbability":0.2493671120118435,"jointShown":"24.9%","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different NBA game, so no two legs share a team, but same-night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring) and that is not modelled.","label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","whySelected":"Each leg is the official NBA side with its published Elo-derived game-winner estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the High Risk band (4 legs).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},{"tier":"longshot","tierLabel":"Longshot","card":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1/parlay-lab","tier":"longshot","tierLabel":"Longshot","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":0.7297,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"73%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","payloadSha256":"32b4edce15ae9740d2aff383ba8f78715f2e20df8d32fc6459e288a541340847"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":0.826,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"83%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"d7efb5dd8e27b40c2520e4b41533e2e3f0ab5931f19f2b4c36a69c3ea38e5ac8"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":0.6103000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"61%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"9e7158e3c8a61337cfbe14677619c10a698aacb50e670e4e419d84b964d85d3c"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"TOR (official side)"},"probability":0.5796,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909281"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.5796,"away":0.4204,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: ORL 42% · TOR 58%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"58%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"e58f0ba1cfcb2927b9a0d70389a2ce4bd48e84b7996a5ad9a50d11d1daafd777"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":0.6695,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"67%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"40b9e5fe558ec00a8ecff45b5912fd0999edcae9473683f9efd9683d46690c9e"}}],"sports":["nba"],"jointProbability":0.14274033828696203,"jointShown":"14.27%","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different NBA game, so no two legs share a team, but same-night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring) and that is not modelled.","label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","whySelected":"Each leg is the official NBA side with its published Elo-derived game-winner estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Longshot band (5 legs).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null}],"bankBuilder":{"card":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1/bank-builder","tier":"low","tierLabel":"Low Risk","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":0.826,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"83%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"d7efb5dd8e27b40c2520e4b41533e2e3f0ab5931f19f2b4c36a69c3ea38e5ac8"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}}],"sports":["nba"],"jointProbability":0.618261,"jointShown":"61.8%","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different NBA game, so no two legs share a team, but same-night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring) and that is not modelled.","label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","whySelected":"Each leg is the official NBA side with its published Elo-derived game-winner estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Low Risk band (2 legs).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},"moonshot":{"card":{"policy":"nba-game-winner-tiers@1/moonshot","tier":"longshot","tierLabel":"Longshot","legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":0.7297,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"73%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","payloadSha256":"32b4edce15ae9740d2aff383ba8f78715f2e20df8d32fc6459e288a541340847"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":0.826,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"83%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"d7efb5dd8e27b40c2520e4b41533e2e3f0ab5931f19f2b4c36a69c3ea38e5ac8"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":0.6103000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"61%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"9e7158e3c8a61337cfbe14677619c10a698aacb50e670e4e419d84b964d85d3c"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"TOR (official side)"},"probability":0.5796,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909281"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.5796,"away":0.4204,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: ORL 42% · TOR 58%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"58%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"e58f0ba1cfcb2927b9a0d70389a2ce4bd48e84b7996a5ad9a50d11d1daafd777"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":0.6695,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"67%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"40b9e5fe558ec00a8ecff45b5912fd0999edcae9473683f9efd9683d46690c9e"}}],"sports":["nba"],"jointProbability":0.14274033828696203,"jointShown":"14.27%","dependency":"Assumes the games are independent: every leg is a different NBA game, so no two legs share a team, but same-night results can still be related (travel, schedule, league-wide scoring) and that is not modelled.","label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","whySelected":"Each leg is the official NBA side with its published Elo-derived game-winner estimate; this is the combination with the highest joint probability in the Longshot band (5 legs).","priced":false,"price":null,"payout":null,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"reason":null},"legs":[{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909277","eventLabel":"CHA @ WSH","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"CHA (official side)"},"probability":0.7297,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909277"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2703,"away":0.7297,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"73%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:18:25Z","payloadSha256":"32b4edce15ae9740d2aff383ba8f78715f2e20df8d32fc6459e288a541340847"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909278","eventLabel":"CHI @ BOS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"BOS (official side)"},"probability":0.826,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909278"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.826,"away":0.174,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHI 17% · BOS 83%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"83%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"d7efb5dd8e27b40c2520e4b41533e2e3f0ab5931f19f2b4c36a69c3ea38e5ac8"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909279","eventLabel":"DET @ BKN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DET (official side)"},"probability":0.7484999999999999,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909279"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.2515,"away":0.7485,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DET 75% · BKN 25%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"82a2cf7bf201f9b78d4d3e61d0f08cc271c5fec7cc6d7d36f1c53ead85431e29"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909280","eventLabel":"NY @ PHI","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"NY (official side)"},"probability":0.6103000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909280"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3897,"away":0.6103,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: NY 61% · PHI 39%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"61%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"9e7158e3c8a61337cfbe14677619c10a698aacb50e670e4e419d84b964d85d3c"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"TOR (official side)"},"probability":0.5796,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909281"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.5796,"away":0.4204,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: ORL 42% · TOR 58%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"58%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"e58f0ba1cfcb2927b9a0d70389a2ce4bd48e84b7996a5ad9a50d11d1daafd777"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909282","eventLabel":"IND @ MIA","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIA (official side)"},"probability":0.7481,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909282"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.7481,"away":0.2519,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: IND 25% · MIA 75%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"75%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"e81d291481baa204c32a294eb24a9340044e4395e128e15e8f0f1f753b363174"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909283","eventLabel":"HOU @ DAL","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"HOU (official side)"},"probability":0.6303000000000001,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909283"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.3697,"away":0.6303,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: HOU 63% · DAL 37%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"63%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"0acfc81e1fb8ac5c3610b7cd0dc9cdd0975ddc66e79246c9eeba4021cac02557"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","selection":{"code":"home","label":"MIN (official side)"},"probability":0.6695,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909284"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.6695,"away":0.3305,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAC 33% · MIN 67%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"home"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"67%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"40b9e5fe558ec00a8ecff45b5912fd0999edcae9473683f9efd9683d46690c9e"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909285","eventLabel":"LAL @ GS","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"LAL (official side)"},"probability":0.5765,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909285"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.4235,"away":0.5765,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: LAL 58% · GS 42%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"58%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"50316dcb4c355f66970110f6b904b225a86b0ee61d46000230307d3f81fd363c"}},{"schema":"gtp.level-a.leg@1","levelA":true,"sport":"nba","eventId":"401909286","eventLabel":"DEN @ PHX","market":"winner","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","selection":{"code":"away","label":"DEN (official side)"},"probability":0.534,"tierable":true,"probabilityNote":"Untiered: the Elo-derived game-winner estimate is shown for information only and does not tier this leg.","forecast":{"owner":"nba-official-composition@1","modelId":"nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1","stampedAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","ref":"app/public/data/nba/experimental-public/2026-10-30.json#401909286"},"uncertainty":{"kind":"elo-win-probability","home":0.466,"away":0.534,"text":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DEN 53% · PHX 47%","note":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"settlement":{"grader":"nba-settlement-contract","market":"moneyline","side":"away"},"priced":false,"price":null,"priceNote":"No sportsbook price — model suggestion only.","shownPct":"53%","decimals":0,"label":"Elo-derived game-winner estimate","display":{"source":"nba-winner-side@1 Elo","frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z","payloadSha256":"532efa7bb2a4d2e73c42c33fc2ba18c37a4aaa2ace8422f7e39a3efaa7609935"}}],"untiered":[],"shorterThanLow":0,"disclosure":"Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation."},"refusedByReason":{},"nbaProjections":[{"eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","playerId":"4066648","name":"Rui Hachimura","team":"LAC","availability":"Day-To-Day","expectedMinutes":45.8,"points":{"median":20.1},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909283","eventLabel":"HOU @ DAL","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","playerId":"4684740","name":"Amen Thompson","team":"HOU","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":39.8,"points":{"median":20.1},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","playerId":"4066320","name":"Desmond Bane","team":"ORL","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":38.1,"points":{"median":19.3},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909283","eventLabel":"HOU @ DAL","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","playerId":"4432639","name":"Jabari Smith Jr.","team":"HOU","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":37.7,"points":{"median":16.5},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909286","eventLabel":"DEN @ PHX","startUtc":"2026-10-31T02:00Z","playerId":"3936299","name":"Jamal Murray","team":"DEN","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":36.7,"points":{"median":22.2},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909284","eventLabel":"LAC @ MIN","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","playerId":"4396907","name":"Darius Garland","team":"LAC","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":36.5,"points":{"median":21.3},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909281","eventLabel":"ORL @ TOR","startUtc":"2026-10-30T23:30Z","playerId":"4277847","name":"Wendell Carter Jr.","team":"ORL","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":35.9,"points":{"median":11},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"},{"eventId":"401909283","eventLabel":"HOU @ DAL","startUtc":"2026-10-31T00:00Z","playerId":"3202","name":"Kevin Durant","team":"HOU","availability":null,"expectedMinutes":35.8,"points":{"median":25.3},"frozenAt":"2026-10-30T15:50:51Z"}]}}