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Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks

Bout 10 of 12

Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein

Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET · Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Meta APEX

Fight history: Nick Klein

No simulation story for this event: Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

No model read for this bout. Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

JKJoe Kropschot9-3-0
vs
Nick KleinNick Klein6-3-0
9-3-0Record6-3-0
0Tracked bouts2
The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Joe Kropschot
9-3-0
Nick Klein
6-3-0
Tracked record

0-2 in the last 2 tracked bouts. No tracked wins; 0 of 2 tracked fights reached the judges (0%).

Not established
? Only 2 tracked bouts — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency
Last 2 tracked
LAndrey PulyaevKO / TKO R2
LMansur Abdul-MalikKO / TKO R2
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

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