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Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall

Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET · Featherweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Meta APEX

Fight history: Dakota Hope · Francis Marshall

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall

Featherweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET

How much history is behind this. Dakota Hope has only 1 tracked UFC bout in our corpus (fewer than the 2 we count as known), so this read leans on Francis Marshall's 7 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Dakota Hope. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Dakota HopeDakota Hope11-2-0
vs
Francis MarshallFrancis Marshall10-3-0
Model pickFrancis Marshall · 73.0%Decision 53.3% · Ends in round 3 or later 61.0%
11-2-0Record10-3-0
1Tracked bouts7
27.0%Win chance73.0%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Francis Marshall has won 4 of 7 tracked bouts (57%) to Hope's 0 of 1 (0%). The model's method read makes a decision more likely than not (53%).

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO28.1%
Submission18.6%
Decision53.3%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

24
R1
15
R2
61
R3+
Ends in round 1
24.4%
Ends in round 2
14.6%
Ends in round 3 or later
61.0%
Goes the distance
53.3%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Dakota Hope
11-2-0
Tracked record

0-1 in the last 1 tracked bout. No tracked wins; 1 of 1 tracked fight reached the judges (100%).

Not established
? Only 1 tracked bout — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency
Last 1 tracked
LKai Kamaka IIIDecision R3
Francis Marshall
10-3-0
Tracked record

3-2 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 2 of 4 wins came by finish (50%); 4 of 7 tracked fights reached the judges (57%).

Not established
? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 57% win rate across 7 tracked bouts (4-3)
Last 5 tracked
WLucas BrennanDecision R3
WErik SilvaSubmission R1
LMairon SantosDecision R3
WDennis BuzukjaDecision R3
LIsaac DulgarianKO / TKO R1
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

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