Skip to main content
Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29
← Fight card

Co-main event

Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET · Welterweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Meta APEX

Fight history: Randy Brown · Jacobe Smith

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith

Welterweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Randy BrownRandy Brown20-8-0
vs
Jacobe SmithJacobe Smith13-0-0
Model pickJacobe Smith · 57.8%Decision 49.9% · Ends in round 3 or later 57.9%
20-8-0Record13-0-0
22Tracked bouts3
42.2%Win chance57.8%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Jacobe Smith has won 3 of 3 tracked bouts (100%) to Brown's 14 of 22 (64%); Smith has finished 3 of 3 wins (100%), and Brown has been finished in 5 of 8 losses (63%). The model's method read has a decision as the most likely of three endings (50%), short of a majority.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO32.0%
Submission18.1%
Decision49.9%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

25
R1
17
R2
58
R3+
Ends in round 1
25.4%
Ends in round 2
16.6%
Ends in round 3 or later
57.9%
Goes the distance
49.9%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Randy Brown
20-8-0
Tracked record

2-3 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 7 of 14 wins came by finish (50%); 10 of 22 tracked fights reached the judges (45%).

Tendencies
· Most losses come inside the distance — 5 of 8 (3 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
· 3 submission wins across 22 tracked bouts
· 4 KO/TKO wins across 22 tracked bouts
Not established
? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 64% win rate across 22 tracked bouts (14-8)
Last 5 tracked
LKevin HollandDecision R3
LGabriel BonfimKO / TKO R2
WNicolas DalbyKO / TKO R2
LBryan BattleDecision R3
WElizeu Zaleski dos SantosDecision R3
Jacobe Smith
13-0-0
Tracked record

3-0 in the last 3 tracked bouts. 3 of 3 wins came by finish (100%); 0 of 3 tracked fights reached the judges (0%).

Tendencies
· Most wins come inside the distance — 3 of 3, mostly by KO/TKO (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
Not established
? Only 3 tracked bouts — too few to call a strength or weakness (needs 5)
? No tracked losses — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 3 tracked
WJosiah HarrellKO / TKO R1
WNiko PriceSubmission R2
WPreston ParsonsKO / TKO R1
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other bouts on this card