Chelsea v Hull City
Chelsea host Hull City in matchweek 4.
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Chelsea v Hull City
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET · Matchweek 4 · Premier League
Club research: Chelsea · Hull City
Started · not saveable
Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Small-sample input: Hull City's away rates come from 1 match. The model treats these tiny splits as fully informative, so this forecast is unusually sensitive to them.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Chelsea win2.1%
Draw41.0%
Hull City win57.0%
Two of three outcomes
Chelsea or draw43%
Hull City or draw97.9%
Either side wins59%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 99.8% of the distribution — the remaining 0.2% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Chelsea–Hull City) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 39.2% | |
| 0–1 | 34.7% | |
| 0–2 | 15.4% | |
| 0–3 | 4.5% | |
| 1–0 | 2% | |
| 1–1 | 1.7% | |
| 0–4 | 1% | |
| 1–2 | 0.8% | |
| 1–3 | 0.2% | |
| 0–5 | 0.2% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 0.94. The middle half of the distribution falls between 0 and 1 goals.
Expected goals0.94
Median (p50)1
p10 – p900 – 2
Probability of each total (goals)
390
371
172
53
14
5
6
7
8
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 1.5 | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| 2.5 | 6.9% | 93.1% |
| 3.5 | 1.5% | 98.5% |
| 4.5 | 0.3% | 99.7% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Chelsea0.05 expected
950
51
2
3
4
5
Hull City0.89 expected
410
371
162
53
14
5
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score2.9%
Chelsea clean sheet41.2%
Hull City clean sheet95.1%
Expected margin-0.84
Winning margin (Chelsea goals − Hull City goals)
1-4
5-3
16-2
36-1
410
2+1
+2
+3
+4
Positive means Chelsea win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Hull City. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Model
- epl-model-v1-split-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Chelsea 0.05 · Hull City 0.89
- Generated
- 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
- Validation
- VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY
More
Other Matchweek 4 fixtures
- Brentford v ChelseaFri, Sep 18, 3:00 PM ET · Brentford 45.1%
- Tottenham Hotspur v Aston VillaSat, Sep 19, 7:30 AM ET · Aston Villa 43.3%
- Everton v Ipswich TownSat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Everton 63.2%
- Brighton & Hove Albion v ArsenalSat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Arsenal 51.7%
- Newcastle United v Hull CitySat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Newcastle United 60.4%
- Nottingham Forest v Coventry CitySat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET · Nottingham Forest 63.8%
- Bournemouth v LiverpoolSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Bournemouth 41.2%
- Leeds United v Crystal PalaceSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Leeds United 46.2%
- Manchester City v SunderlandSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Manchester City 75.1%
Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures