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Nottingham Forest v Coventry City

Sat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET · Matchweek 5 · Premier League

Club research: Nottingham Forest · Coventry City

Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.

Model-only, pre-odds: no authorized market snapshot covers this fixture yet, so there is no market comparison here — only the model's own numbers. Prices join closer to kickoff, and this snapshot refreshes until then.

Simulation story

7 chapters · read from the published artifact

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Nottingham Forest v Coventry City

Nottingham Forest host Coventry City in matchweek 5.

Match result

Full time, 90 minutes

The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.

Nottingham Forest win63.8%

Draw21.1%

Coventry City win15.1%

Two of three outcomes

Nottingham Forest or draw84.9%

Coventry City or draw36.2%

Either side wins78.9%

Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.

Exact score

The ten likeliest scorelines

These ten account for 77.5% of the distribution — the remaining 22.5% is spread across every other scoreline.

Score (Nottingham Forest–Coventry City)	Probability
1–0	12.2%
2–0	11.9%
1–1	10%
2–1	9.8%
3–0	7.7%
3–1	6.3%
0–0	6.3%
0–1	5.2%
1–2	4.1%
2–2	4%

Goals

Total goals in the match

Expected 2.77. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.

Expected goals2.77

Median (p50)3

p10 – p901 – 5

Probability of each total (goals)

Over / under ladder

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.7%	6.3%
1.5	76.3%	23.7%
2.5	52.3%	47.7%
3.5	30.1%	69.9%
4.5	14.7%	85.3%

Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.

By side

How many each side scores

The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.

Nottingham Forest1.95 expected

Coventry City0.82 expected

Derived

Goalscoring shape and margin

Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.

Both teams score48.1%

Nottingham Forest clean sheet43.9%

Coventry City clean sheet14.3%

Expected margin+1.12

Winning margin (Nottingham Forest goals − Coventry City goals)

-4

-3

-2

-1

Positive means Nottingham Forest win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Coventry City. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.

Player predictions · anytime goalscorer

If he starts — likeliest scorers

The lineup is not posted yet, so each figure is the chance that player scores IF he starts — not a claim that he will. This is a different model from the score matrix above, with its own out-of-sample test.

Player	Club	Appearances	To score	A shot on target
Chris Wood	Nottingham Forest	75	35.4%	59.3%
Taiwo Awoniyi	Coventry City	35	31.9%	53.3%
Arnaud Kalimuendo	Nottingham Forest	none	26.1%	55.1%
Brandon Thomas-Asante	Coventry City	none	26.1%	55.1%
Eric Da Silva Moreira	Nottingham Forest	none	26.1%	55.1%
Haji Wright	Coventry City	none	26.1%	55.1%
Raphael Borges Rodrigues	Coventry City	none	26.1%	55.1%
Sidiki Cherif	Coventry City	none	26.1%	55.1%
Ellis Simms	Coventry City	2	24.8%	50.9%
Dilane Bakwa	Nottingham Forest	6	22.5%	51.2%
Callum Hudson-Odoi	Nottingham Forest	66	22.3%	49.4%
Igor Jesus	Nottingham Forest	28	21.7%	49.2%

Showing the 12 likeliest of 59. No injury or suspension feed exists here, so a player who is unavailable can still appear in this list. Shots on target is a separate model from the scorer figure beside it, fitted and tested on its own — the two are not derived from one another and can disagree.

Method

Where these numbers come from

Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.

The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.

Model: epl-model-v2-elo-poisson
Scoring rates (λ): Nottingham Forest 1.95 · Coventry City 0.82
Generated: 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
Validation: VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY

Other Matchweek 5 fixtures

Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures