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Fulham v Manchester United

Sun, Sep 20, 11:30 AM ET · Matchweek 5 · Premier League

Club research: Fulham · Manchester United

Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.

Model-only, pre-odds: no authorized market snapshot covers this fixture yet, so there is no market comparison here — only the model's own numbers. Prices join closer to kickoff, and this snapshot refreshes until then.

Simulation story

7 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Fulham v Manchester United

Fulham host Manchester United in matchweek 5.

Match result

Full time, 90 minutes

The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.

Fulham win31.2%

Draw25.2%

Manchester United win43.7%

Two of three outcomes

Fulham or draw56.3%

Manchester United or draw68.8%

Either side wins74.8%

Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.

Exact score

The ten likeliest scorelines

These ten account for 74.4% of the distribution — the remaining 25.6% is spread across every other scoreline.

Score (Fulham–Manchester United)	Probability
1–1	11.9%
0–1	9.5%
1–2	9.1%
1–0	7.8%
2–1	7.4%
0–2	7.3%
0–0	6.3%
2–2	5.6%
2–0	4.9%
1–3	4.6%

Goals

Total goals in the match

Expected 2.77. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.

Expected goals2.77

Median (p50)3

p10 – p901 – 5

Probability of each total (goals)

Over / under ladder

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.7%	6.3%
1.5	76.3%	23.7%
2.5	52.3%	47.7%
3.5	30.1%	69.9%
4.5	14.7%	85.3%

Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.

By side

How many each side scores

The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.

Fulham1.25 expected

Manchester United1.52 expected

Derived

Goalscoring shape and margin

Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.

Both teams score55.7%

Fulham clean sheet21.8%

Manchester United clean sheet28.7%

Expected margin-0.27

Winning margin (Fulham goals − Manchester United goals)

-4

-3

-2

-1

Positive means Fulham win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Manchester United. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.

Player predictions · anytime goalscorer

If he starts — likeliest scorers

The lineup is not posted yet, so each figure is the chance that player scores IF he starts — not a claim that he will. This is a different model from the score matrix above, with its own out-of-sample test.

Player	Club	Appearances	To score	A shot on target
Bryan Mbeumo	Manchester United	127	30.4%	59.7%
Marcus Rashford	Manchester United	74	29.9%	60.6%
Matheus Cunha	Manchester United	99	29.4%	65.3%
Benjamin Sesko	Manchester United	17	28.9%	71%
Rodrigo Muniz	Fulham	36	26.2%	56.1%
Gonzalo García	Fulham	none	26.1%	55.1%
Jonah Kusi-Asare	Fulham	none	26.1%	55.1%
Macauley Zepa	Fulham	none	26.1%	55.1%
Shea Lacey	Manchester United	none	26.1%	55.1%
Joshua Zirkzee	Manchester United	19	23.5%	53.5%
Amad Diallo	Manchester United	50	21.4%	53%
Kevin	Fulham	9	21.1%	48.9%

Showing the 12 likeliest of 55. No injury or suspension feed exists here, so a player who is unavailable can still appear in this list. Shots on target is a separate model from the scorer figure beside it, fitted and tested on its own — the two are not derived from one another and can disagree.

Method

Where these numbers come from

Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.

The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.

Model: epl-model-v2-elo-poisson
Scoring rates (λ): Fulham 1.25 · Manchester United 1.52
Generated: 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
Validation: VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY

Other Matchweek 5 fixtures

Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures