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Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa

Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 AM ET · Matchweek 5 · Premier League

Club research: Tottenham Hotspur · Aston Villa

Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.

Model-only, pre-odds: no authorized market snapshot covers this fixture yet, so there is no market comparison here — only the model's own numbers. Prices join closer to kickoff, and this snapshot refreshes until then.

Simulation story

7 chapters · read from the published artifact

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Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa

Tottenham Hotspur host Aston Villa in matchweek 5.

Match result

Full time, 90 minutes

The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.

Tottenham Hotspur win31.5%

Draw25.2%

Aston Villa win43.3%

Two of three outcomes

Tottenham Hotspur or draw56.7%

Aston Villa or draw68.5%

Either side wins74.8%

Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.

Exact score

The ten likeliest scorelines

These ten account for 74.4% of the distribution — the remaining 25.6% is spread across every other scoreline.

Score (Tottenham Hotspur–Aston Villa)	Probability
1–1	11.9%
0–1	9.5%
1–2	9%
1–0	7.9%
2–1	7.5%
0–2	7.2%
0–0	6.3%
2–2	5.7%
2–0	4.9%
1–3	4.6%

Goals

Total goals in the match

Expected 2.77. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.

Expected goals2.77

Median (p50)3

p10 – p901 – 5

Probability of each total (goals)

Over / under ladder

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.7%	6.3%
1.5	76.3%	23.7%
2.5	52.3%	47.7%
3.5	30.1%	69.9%
4.5	14.7%	85.3%

Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.

By side

How many each side scores

The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.

Tottenham Hotspur1.25 expected

Aston Villa1.51 expected

Derived

Goalscoring shape and margin

Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.

Both teams score55.7%

Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet22%

Aston Villa clean sheet28.5%

Expected margin-0.26

Winning margin (Tottenham Hotspur goals − Aston Villa goals)

-4

-3

-2

-1

Positive means Tottenham Hotspur win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Aston Villa. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.

Player predictions · anytime goalscorer

If he starts — likeliest scorers

The lineup is not posted yet, so each figure is the chance that player scores IF he starts — not a claim that he will. This is a different model from the score matrix above, with its own out-of-sample test.

Player	Club	Appearances	To score	A shot on target
Ollie Watkins	Aston Villa	137	35%	67.5%
Richarlison	Tottenham Hotspur	54	29.2%	60.4%
Dominic Solanke	Tottenham Hotspur	105	28.9%	60.6%
Alysson	Aston Villa	none	26.1%	55.1%
Bradley Burrowes	Aston Villa	none	26.1%	55.1%
Brian Madjo	Aston Villa	none	26.1%	55.1%
Dane Scarlett	Tottenham Hotspur	none	26.1%	55.1%
Luka Lynch	Aston Villa	none	26.1%	55.1%
Tammy Abraham	Aston Villa	2	24.8%	53.5%
Mathys Tel	Tottenham Hotspur	24	21.7%	48.8%
James Maddison	Tottenham Hotspur	75	21.5%	52.2%
Leon Bailey	Aston Villa	65	20%	41.8%

Showing the 12 likeliest of 60. No injury or suspension feed exists here, so a player who is unavailable can still appear in this list. Shots on target is a separate model from the scorer figure beside it, fitted and tested on its own — the two are not derived from one another and can disagree.

Method

Where these numbers come from

Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.

The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.

Model: epl-model-v2-elo-poisson
Scoring rates (λ): Tottenham Hotspur 1.25 · Aston Villa 1.51
Generated: 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
Validation: VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY

Other Matchweek 5 fixtures

Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures