Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur
Nottingham Forest host Tottenham Hotspur in matchweek 3.
← Premier League fixtures
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 AM ET · Matchweek 3 · Premier League
Club research: Nottingham Forest · Tottenham Hotspur
Final · full time
Tested blind on past seasons. These are the model's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Model detail · how it was tested and its live record
Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 40 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. 36 matches were graded under the model this one replaced; that record is kept separately and is not evidence for this model.
What happened · official result
Full time: Nottingham Forest 0 – 0 Tottenham Hotspur
Draw. The graded forecast gave this result 25.1%. Its most likely outcome was Tottenham Hotspur win, which did not happen. 0 goals in total.
The record grades the forecast published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET (Nottingham Forest 35% · draw 25.1% · Tottenham Hotspur 39.9%). The figures below are another version of the forecast, also saved before kickoff, and differ slightly.
Every graded Premier League forecast →
The forecast below is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Nottingham Forest win35.0%
Draw25.1%
Tottenham Hotspur win40.0%
Two of three outcomes
Nottingham Forest or draw60%
Tottenham Hotspur or draw65%
Either side wins74.9%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 73% of the distribution — the remaining 27% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Nottingham Forest–Tottenham Hotspur) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.8% | |
| 1–2 | 8.7% | |
| 0–1 | 8.6% | |
| 2–1 | 8% | |
| 1–0 | 8% | |
| 0–2 | 6.4% | |
| 2–2 | 5.9% | |
| 0–0 | 5.9% | |
| 2–0 | 5.4% | |
| 1–3 | 4.3% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 2.84. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.
Expected goals2.84
Median (p50)3
p10 – p901 – 5
Probability of each total (goals)
60
171
242
223
164
95
46
27
8
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| 1.5 | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 2.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 3.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 4.5 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Nottingham Forest1.36 expected
260
351
242
113
44
15
Tottenham Hotspur1.47 expected
230
341
252
123
44
15
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score57.4%
Nottingham Forest clean sheet22.9%
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet25.6%
Expected margin-0.11
Winning margin (Nottingham Forest goals − Tottenham Hotspur goals)
2-4
5-3
12-2
21-1
250
19+1
10+2
4+3
1+4
Positive means Nottingham Forest win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Tottenham Hotspur. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Forecast generated
- Validation
- Team match model tested blind on past seasons · not shown to outperform market prices
Technical detailsInternal model id and the fitted scoring rates.
- Model
- epl-model-v1-split-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Nottingham Forest 1.36 · Tottenham Hotspur 1.47
More
Latest Premier League forecasts
- Chelsea v Manchester UnitedSat, Oct 31, 8:30 AM ET · Chelsea 38%
- Manchester City v Brighton & Hove AlbionSat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM ET · Manchester City 62.8%
- Bournemouth v Leeds UnitedSat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM ET · Bournemouth 52%
- Coventry City v SunderlandSat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM ET · Sunderland 39.7%
- Hull City v Ipswich TownSat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM ET · Hull City 49.7%
- Brentford v Nottingham ForestSat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM ET · Brentford 52.2%
- Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal PalaceSat, Oct 31, 1:30 PM ET · Tottenham Hotspur 39.6%
- Aston Villa v FulhamSat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM ET · Aston Villa 52.7%
- Liverpool v ArsenalSun, Nov 1, 11:30 AM ET · Arsenal 41.7%
Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures