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Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM ET · Matchweek 4 · Premier League

Club research: Aston Villa · Nottingham Forest

Started · not saveable

Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.

Simulation story

7 chapters · read from the published artifact

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Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest in matchweek 4.

Match result

Full time, 90 minutes

The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.

Aston Villa win61.4%

Draw20.1%

Nottingham Forest win18.5%

Two of three outcomes

Aston Villa or draw81.5%

Nottingham Forest or draw38.6%

Either side wins79.9%

Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.

Exact score

The ten likeliest scorelines

These ten account for 68.2% of the distribution — the remaining 31.8% is spread across every other scoreline.

Score (Aston Villa–Nottingham Forest)	Probability
2–1	9.8%
1–1	9.1%
2–0	8.9%
1–0	8.2%
3–1	7.1%
3–0	6.4%
2–2	5.4%
1–2	5%
0–1	4.2%
3–2	3.9%

Goals

Total goals in the match

Expected 3.27. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.

Expected goals3.27

Median (p50)3

p10 – p901 – 6

Probability of each total (goals)

Over / under ladder

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	83.7%	16.3%
2.5	63.4%	36.6%
3.5	41.2%	58.8%
4.5	23.1%	76.9%

Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.

By side

How many each side scores

The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.

Aston Villa2.16 expected

Nottingham Forest1.11 expected

Derived

Goalscoring shape and margin

Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.

Both teams score59.2%

Aston Villa clean sheet33.1%

Nottingham Forest clean sheet11.5%

Expected margin+1.05

Winning margin (Aston Villa goals − Nottingham Forest goals)

-4

-3

-2

-1

Positive means Aston Villa win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Nottingham Forest. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.

Method

Where these numbers come from

Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.

The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.

Model: epl-model-v1-split-poisson
Scoring rates (λ): Aston Villa 2.16 · Nottingham Forest 1.11
Generated: 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
Validation: VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY

Other Matchweek 4 fixtures

Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures