Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
Tottenham Hotspur host Everton in matchweek 4.
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Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
Sat, Sep 12, 12:30 PM ET · Matchweek 4 · Premier League
Club research: Tottenham Hotspur · Everton
Started · not saveable
Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Tottenham Hotspur win45.5%
Draw25.8%
Everton win28.6%
Two of three outcomes
Tottenham Hotspur or draw71.4%
Everton or draw54.5%
Either side wins74.2%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 77.3% of the distribution — the remaining 22.7% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Tottenham Hotspur–Everton) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.3% | |
| 1–0 | 10.9% | |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | |
| 0–1 | 8.3% | |
| 2–0 | 8.1% | |
| 0–0 | 7.4% | |
| 1–2 | 6.9% | |
| 2–2 | 5.1% | |
| 0–2 | 4.6% | |
| 3–1 | 4.5% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 2.61. The middle half of the distribution falls between 1 and 4 goals.
Expected goals2.61
Median (p50)2
p10 – p901 – 5
Probability of each total (goals)
70
191
252
223
144
75
36
17
8
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 2.5 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 3.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| 4.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Tottenham Hotspur1.49 expected
230
341
252
123
54
15
Everton1.12 expected
330
371
212
83
24
5
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score52.2%
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet32.5%
Everton clean sheet22.6%
Expected margin+0.36
Winning margin (Tottenham Hotspur goals − Everton goals)
-4
3-3
8-2
17-1
260
23+1
14+2
6+3
2+4
Positive means Tottenham Hotspur win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Everton. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Model
- epl-model-v1-split-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Tottenham Hotspur 1.49 · Everton 1.12
- Generated
- 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
- Validation
- VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY
More
Other Matchweek 4 fixtures
- Brentford v ChelseaFri, Sep 18, 3:00 PM ET · Brentford 45.1%
- Tottenham Hotspur v Aston VillaSat, Sep 19, 7:30 AM ET · Aston Villa 43.3%
- Everton v Ipswich TownSat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Everton 63.2%
- Brighton & Hove Albion v ArsenalSat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Arsenal 51.7%
- Newcastle United v Hull CitySat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Newcastle United 60.4%
- Nottingham Forest v Coventry CitySat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET · Nottingham Forest 63.8%
- Bournemouth v LiverpoolSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Bournemouth 41.2%
- Leeds United v Crystal PalaceSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Leeds United 46.2%
- Manchester City v SunderlandSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Manchester City 75.1%
Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures