Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Leeds United host Crystal Palace in matchweek 5.
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Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Sun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Matchweek 5 · Premier League
Club research: Leeds United · Crystal Palace
Tested blind on past seasons. Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 36 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. These are themodel's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Model-only, pre-odds: no authorized market snapshot covers this fixture yet, so there is no market comparison here — only the model's own numbers. Prices join closer to kickoff, and this snapshot refreshes until then.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Leeds United win46.2%
Draw24.9%
Crystal Palace win28.9%
Two of three outcomes
Leeds United or draw71.1%
Crystal Palace or draw53.8%
Either side wins75.1%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 74.5% of the distribution — the remaining 25.5% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Leeds United–Crystal Palace) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.8% | |
| 1–0 | 9.9% | |
| 2–1 | 9.3% | |
| 2–0 | 7.8% | |
| 0–1 | 7.5% | |
| 1–2 | 7% | |
| 0–0 | 6.3% | |
| 2–2 | 5.5% | |
| 3–1 | 4.9% | |
| 0–2 | 4.5% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 2.77. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.
Expected goals2.77
Median (p50)3
p10 – p901 – 5
Probability of each total (goals)
60
171
242
223
154
95
46
27
8
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| 1.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 2.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 3.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 4.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Leeds United1.58 expected
210
331
262
133
54
25
Crystal Palace1.19 expected
300
361
222
93
34
5
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score55.3%
Leeds United clean sheet30.3%
Crystal Palace clean sheet20.7%
Expected margin+0.38
Winning margin (Leeds United goals − Crystal Palace goals)
-4
3-3
8-2
17-1
250
23+1
14+2
6+3
2+4
Positive means Leeds United win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Crystal Palace. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Player predictions · anytime goalscorer
If he starts — likeliest scorers
The lineup is not posted yet, so each figure is the chance that player scores IF he starts — not a claim that he will. This is a different model from the score matrix above, with its own out-of-sample test.
| Player | Club | Appearances | To score | A shot on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 89 | 31.5% | 59.8% |
| Eddie Nketiah | Crystal Palace | 30 | 28.4% | 59.7% |
| Noah Okafor | Leeds United | 19 | 27.9% | 50.8% |
| Lukas Nmecha | Leeds United | 10 | 27.8% | 53.3% |
| Ismaïla Sarr | Crystal Palace | 54 | 26.7% | 58% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | Crystal Palace | 56 | 26.2% | 55.2% |
| Anan Khalaili | Crystal Palace | none | 26.1% | 55.1% |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | Crystal Palace | none | 26.1% | 55.1% |
| Zavier Gozo | Crystal Palace | none | 26.1% | 55.1% |
| Matheus França | Crystal Palace | 1 | 25.4% | 55.6% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 90 | 23.5% | 59.1% |
| Harry Wilson | Leeds United | 73 | 21.7% | 48.9% |
Showing the 12 likeliest of 54. No injury or suspension feed exists here, so a player who is unavailable can still appear in this list. Shots on target is a separate model from the scorer figure beside it, fitted and tested on its own — the two are not derived from one another and can disagree.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Model
- epl-model-v2-elo-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Leeds United 1.58 · Crystal Palace 1.19
- Generated
- 2026-09-14T21:57:35Z
- Validation
- VALIDATED_OUT_OF_SAMPLE_HISTORY
More
Other Matchweek 5 fixtures
- Brentford v ChelseaFri, Sep 18, 3:00 PM ET · Brentford 45.1%
- Tottenham Hotspur v Aston VillaSat, Sep 19, 7:30 AM ET · Aston Villa 43.3%
- Everton v Ipswich TownSat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Everton 63.2%
- Brighton & Hove Albion v ArsenalSat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Arsenal 51.7%
- Newcastle United v Hull CitySat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET · Newcastle United 60.4%
- Nottingham Forest v Coventry CitySat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET · Nottingham Forest 63.8%
- Bournemouth v LiverpoolSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Bournemouth 41.2%
- Manchester City v SunderlandSun, Sep 20, 9:00 AM ET · Manchester City 75.1%
- Fulham v Manchester UnitedSun, Sep 20, 11:30 AM ET · Manchester United 43.7%
Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures