Aston Villa v Arsenal
Aston Villa host Arsenal in matchweek 2.
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Aston Villa v Arsenal
Mon, Aug 31, 3:00 PM ET · Matchweek 2 · Premier League
Club research: Aston Villa · Arsenal
Final · full time
Tested blind on past seasons. These are the model's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Model detail · how it was tested and its live record
Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 40 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. 36 matches were graded under the model this one replaced; that record is kept separately and is not evidence for this model.
What happened · official result
Full time: Aston Villa 0 – 1 Arsenal
Arsenal win. The graded forecast gave this result 53.1%. Its most likely outcome was Arsenal win, which happened. 1 goal in total.
Every graded Premier League forecast →
The forecast below is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Aston Villa win22.7%
Draw24.2%
Arsenal win53.1%
Two of three outcomes
Aston Villa or draw46.9%
Arsenal or draw77.3%
Either side wins75.8%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 77.4% of the distribution — the remaining 22.6% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Aston Villa–Arsenal) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.5% | |
| 0–1 | 11.5% | |
| 1–2 | 9.7% | |
| 0–2 | 9.6% | |
| 1–0 | 6.9% | |
| 0–0 | 6.8% | |
| 2–1 | 5.8% | |
| 1–3 | 5.4% | |
| 0–3 | 5.4% | |
| 2–2 | 4.9% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 2.68. The middle half of the distribution falls between 1 and 4 goals.
Expected goals2.68
Median (p50)3
p10 – p901 – 5
Probability of each total (goals)
70
181
252
223
154
85
46
17
8
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 1.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| 2.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| 3.5 | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| 4.5 | 13.5% | 86.6% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Aston Villa1.01 expected
370
371
182
63
24
5
Arsenal1.68 expected
190
311
262
153
64
25
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score51.6%
Aston Villa clean sheet18.7%
Arsenal clean sheet36.6%
Expected margin-0.67
Winning margin (Aston Villa goals − Arsenal goals)
3-4
8-3
16-2
24-1
240
15+1
6+2
2+3
+4
Positive means Aston Villa win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Arsenal. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Forecast generated
- Validation
- Team match model tested blind on past seasons · not shown to outperform market prices
Technical detailsInternal model id and the fitted scoring rates.
- Model
- epl-model-v1-split-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Aston Villa 1.01 · Arsenal 1.68
More
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Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures