Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsenal host Chelsea in matchweek 3.
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Arsenal v Chelsea
Sun, Sep 6, 11:30 AM ET · Matchweek 3 · Premier League
Club research: Arsenal · Chelsea
Final · full time
Tested blind on past seasons. These are the model's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Model detail · how it was tested and its live record
Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 40 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. 36 matches were graded under the model this one replaced; that record is kept separately and is not evidence for this model.
What happened · official result
Full time: Arsenal 2 – 1 Chelsea
Arsenal win. The graded forecast gave this result 65.2%. Its most likely outcome was Arsenal win, which happened. 3 goals in total.
The record grades the forecast published Sep 6, 11:00 AM ET (Arsenal 65.2% · draw 19.1% · Chelsea 15.7%). The figures below are another version of the forecast, also saved before kickoff, and differ slightly.
Every graded Premier League forecast →
The forecast below is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Arsenal win65.1%
Draw19.1%
Chelsea win15.8%
Two of three outcomes
Arsenal or draw84.2%
Chelsea or draw34.9%
Either side wins80.9%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 69.4% of the distribution — the remaining 30.6% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Arsenal–Chelsea) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–1 | 9.8% | |
| 2–0 | 9.8% | |
| 1–1 | 8.8% | |
| 1–0 | 8.8% | |
| 3–1 | 7.3% | |
| 3–0 | 7.3% | |
| 2–2 | 4.9% | |
| 1–2 | 4.4% | |
| 4–1 | 4.1% | |
| 4–0 | 4.1% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 3.23. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.
Expected goals3.23
Median (p50)3
p10 – p901 – 6
Probability of each total (goals)
40
131
212
223
184
125
66
37
18
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96.1% | 3.9% |
| 1.5 | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 2.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 3.5 | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 4.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Arsenal2.23 expected
110
241
272
203
114
55
Chelsea1.00 expected
370
371
182
63
24
5
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score56.5%
Arsenal clean sheet36.7%
Chelsea clean sheet10.8%
Expected margin+1.23
Winning margin (Arsenal goals − Chelsea goals)
-4
1-3
4-2
10-1
190
23+1
19+2
12+3
6+4
Positive means Arsenal win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Chelsea. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Forecast generated
- Validation
- Team match model tested blind on past seasons · not shown to outperform market prices
Technical detailsInternal model id and the fitted scoring rates.
- Model
- epl-model-v1-split-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Arsenal 2.23 · Chelsea 1.00
More
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Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures