Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Newcastle United host Aston Villa in matchweek 7.
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Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Sat, Oct 17, 12:30 PM ET · Matchweek 7 · Premier League
Club research: Newcastle United · Aston Villa
Final · full time
Tested blind on past seasons. These are the model's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Model detail · how it was tested and its live record
Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 40 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. 36 matches were graded under the model this one replaced; that record is kept separately and is not evidence for this model.
What happened · official result
Full time: Newcastle United 0 – 1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa win. The graded forecast gave this result 31.1%. Its most likely outcome was Newcastle United win, which did not happen. 1 goal in total.
Every graded Premier League forecast →
The forecast below is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff.
Simulation story
7 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Match result
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Newcastle United win43.8%
Draw25.0%
Aston Villa win31.1%
Two of three outcomes
Newcastle United or draw68.9%
Aston Villa or draw56.2%
Either side wins75%
Each is a sum of the three probabilities above, so it cannot disagree with them.
Exact score
The ten likeliest scorelines
These ten account for 73.9% of the distribution — the remaining 26.1% is spread across every other scoreline.
| Score (Newcastle United–Aston Villa) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.8% | |
| 1–0 | 9.4% | |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | |
| 0–1 | 7.7% | |
| 1–2 | 7.4% | |
| 2–0 | 7.2% | |
| 0–0 | 6.1% | |
| 2–2 | 5.7% | |
| 0–2 | 4.8% | |
| 3–1 | 4.7% |
Goals
Total goals in the match
Expected 2.79. The middle half of the distribution falls between 2 and 4 goals.
Expected goals2.79
Median (p50)3
p10 – p901 – 5
Probability of each total (goals)
60
171
242
223
164
95
46
27
8
Over / under ladder
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93.9% | 6.1% |
| 1.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 2.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 3.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 4.5 | 15.2% | 84.8% |
Half lines only — a match cannot land exactly on one, so over and under sum to 100% with no push.
By side
How many each side scores
The marginal of the same grid — not a separate fit, so these add back to the total above.
Newcastle United1.54 expected
210
331
252
133
54
25
Aston Villa1.26 expected
280
361
222
93
34
5
Derived
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Both teams score56.2%
Newcastle United clean sheet28.5%
Aston Villa clean sheet21.5%
Expected margin+0.28
Winning margin (Newcastle United goals − Aston Villa goals)
-4
3-3
9-2
18-1
250
22+1
13+2
6+3
2+4
Positive means Newcastle United win by that many, 0 is the draw, negative means Aston Villa. Margins beyond ±4 carry the remaining mass and are not drawn.
Method
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Forecast generated
- Validation
- Team match model tested blind on past seasons · not shown to outperform market prices
Technical detailsInternal model id and the fitted scoring rates.
- Model
- epl-model-v2-elo-poisson
- Scoring rates (λ)
- Newcastle United 1.54 · Aston Villa 1.26
More
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Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures