Arsenal v Coventry City
Fri, Aug 21, 3:00 PM ET · Matchweek 1 · Premier League
Club research: Arsenal · Coventry City
Final · full time
Tested blind on past seasons. These are the model's own probability distributions, published so you can see what it says — not picks, not advice, and not compared against any price.
Model detail · how it was tested and its live record
Tested blind on nine past Premier League seasons (2013-14 to 2021-22, 3,420 matches) it was never fit on, where it beat the previous model and a plain rating system. Its total-goals numbers follow the league's recent scoring rate, so they are the same for every match — in that test they were more accurate than the previous model's team-by-team totals. Its live record this season is still being graded. 40 Premier League matches have been graded under this model — far too few to support any accuracy claim. No live win rate or accuracy figure is quoted until its season record is large enough to mean something. 36 matches were graded under the model this one replaced; that record is kept separately and is not evidence for this model.
What happened · official result
Full time: Arsenal 3 – 0 Coventry City
Arsenal win. The graded forecast gave this result 69.1%. Its most likely outcome was Arsenal win, which happened. 3 goals in total.
Every graded Premier League forecast →
The forecast below is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff.
Cold start: Coventry City has no top-flight history in the four-season corpus this model is fitted on, so it runs at the league-average baseline rather than a fitted strength. Every figure below inherits that.
No simulation story for this event: This fixture's probabilities are withheld — the forecast exists but is not published for it.
Full time, 90 minutes
The draw is a real outcome and is never folded away.
Goalscoring shape and margin
Every figure is an exact sum over the same score grid.
Where these numbers come from
Per-club attack and defence rates are fitted to Premier League results only, then combined into an exact Poisson score matrix for this fixture. Every probability on this page is a closed-form sum over that one grid — there is no sampling here, so there is no run count to quote and the figures are identical for every visitor, every time.
The fit takes an explicit cutoff at the run clock, so it cannot see a result from a match it is forecasting. Team-level only: no lineup, injury or team-news input exists in this model, by design.
- Forecast generated
- Validation
- Team match model tested blind on past seasons · not shown to outperform market prices
Technical detailsInternal model id and the fitted scoring rates.
- Model
- epl-model-v1-split-poisson
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Paper-only and educational. Not betting advice. All Premier League fixtures